BC CRYPTO
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

stacks are eating the world

 business used to be easiest to comprehend via a) market-based logic of horizontal vs. vertical STRUCTURE, b) professionalization/specialization based FUNCTION c) core competencies based BEHAVIORS

this has pretty much collapsed in the last decade
Structure = sclerosis
Functional specialization = bureaucracy
competencies = inertial habits

"Stack" thinking instead lets technology structure (rather than market structure) drive business org logic
Companies seem to do well when they identify an entire stack of technologies they are good at (not just point bits) and organize to conform to its logic. There is a "full-stack" dimension of technical specialization that is the spine of the org
It feels buzzwordy, but it really is getting to be that way. AI stack, decarbonization stack, mobility stack, electrification stack... some end-to-end pathway of turning physics into economics via layers of tech artistically baked together like a cake
If you haven't seen enough examples to instinctively pattern-match what I'm talking about, think of a stack as somewhere between an industry sector like "aerospace" and a functional specialization like "marketing."
Is the drone industry part of aerospace? Yes and no... there's an aerospace renaissance on to be sure, and some of it overlaps with the old kind and with lots of FAA regulations and such, but really what we have is a "new aerospace stack"
covers the tech needed to build useful end-to-end capabilities for everything from delivery drones to surveillance to disaster relief search-and-rescue to even indoor toys/games/robotic assistance... yes, bits of it look like boeing, but lots of it do not...
Here there is a 1:1 correspondence. Old aerospace is retreating to high-end/high-cost "platform" organization. In other cases, it's entirely new. There's a "sidewalk stack" for example (scooters, bike rentals, hoverboards, delivery robots, inspection robots)
I'd probably call that the "smart sidewalk" stack or "low-power urban mobility stack" ... currently a half-baked cake of technologies that impact many current and potential markets and businesses/orgs

More from Venkatesh Rao

Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
following a discussion at @yak_collective this morning, I came up with this chart to capture a hypothesis I have that the difficulty of creating communities scales exponentially with the the "depth" of what you're trying to do


thanks @grigorimilov for leading the discussion that sparked this.

The way to read the graph is: each line is a time history of difficulty. It starts dotted, goes through a criticality inflection point, and then crests in difficulty before coming down to a stable plateau.

The inflection points have different names depending on context, but are all topologically similar. They are the make or break moment when a network-effect either kicks in, or fails to. "Product-market fit" in the case of market is the best known such point.

Level 1 is a basic social community, such as a FB group, meetup etc. There are millions of successful ones, and 100s of millions of failures. The "fit point" is what I call a meme-mind fit, when some social object catalyzes a sustainable long-term conversation of growing richness

Almost everything I've helped instigate is Level 1. My contributions to the social-object soup have been things like the vocabulary around sociopaths/clueless/losers, legibility, 2x2s etc.
FOR LATER READ
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
Heh, one thing the nyt piece managed was to do a Cunningham's law nerdsnipe-wmd at newspaper scale... now a bunch of people are energetically trying to post the right answer.


IMO trying to correct whatever the NYT writer thought he knew/understood is futile. "Willing to be misunderstood by the NYT" should be the default stance unless you want to waste a lot of time correcting an obsolete 2013 map for people who don't care.

The thing is, the NYT still has enough normative cultural power, even as it has fallen from newspaper-of-record, that it takes a particular sort of heretical self-confidence to sort of ignore whatever they happen to be wrong about on any given week, whether or not it concerns you

A subtle shift has occurred in the workings of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect. It used to be an individual private amnesia re: media ("I'll believe myself when I am certain they got it wrong because I'm an expert, but still believe them when I am not"). Now it's a collective effect

A sort of common-knowledge threshold has been crossed lately. "Everybody knows that everybody knows the NYT is wrong on X across largish subcultures." It's no longer mutual beliefs being validated occasionally 1:1.
SOCIOLOGY
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Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
Reading my own old writing from 10+ years ago is rarely pleasant. It’s not that the ideas and techniques are worse/embarrassing by current tastes (though they often are), but that they have a brash energy I can’t vibe with anymore even where I can still stand by the content.

Most of that energy is not mine from a younger mindset personally (though there’s some of that) but a function of the era. 2010 generally had more of a brash energy going. An energy born of a widespread sense of the world making more sense and humans being more agenty within it.

2007-13: Brash energy. The GFC bloodied our noses but we still felt in control of the plot collectively.

2014-20: Angry-anxious energy. Everybody lost the plot. Winners and losers alike. Great Weirding.

2021 - : Mellow sadder-and-wiser energy on macro, brrr energy on micro.

Opening mood for 2021 feels like how a figure skater spins faster by pulling in tighter. Narrower horizons, more concentrated energy, easy to mistake conservation of momentum effects for an absolute increase in system energy. Shows up in everything from stocks to writing.

Its tempting to retreat to narrow horizons with primarily happy domestic cozy energy (these are really good times for anything that taps into domestic-scale psyche energy). But even the happiest broader thoughts are alloyed with that mellow sadder-wiser plotlessness.
FOR LATER READ
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
social media use really calls for something closer to a driver's license than terms of service... most apparent bad behavior here is more incompetence than malice, like not knowing how to change lanes or take turns at a 4-way stop..

trump's history on twitter is something closer to a crazy car chase on LA streets than bad driving (with the cops MIA, but media helicopters in pursuit), but almost all unpleasantness around here is just poor driving skills

not that I'm advocating for a licensing regime... that would be a terrible thing. Do not need a social media DMV. But the underlying principles (as tested for eg. in the written and road tests) are pretty good.

Written test would test things like "safe following distance" (reply-guying = tailgating?)

Road test would actually expose you to routine provocations. Like, "make a left turn" = "deal with this concern troll"

As in the driving test, where an awkward, unnatural, and unintuitive bit, the parallel parking test, is the toughest bit, there would be some such awkward maneuver you'd have to learn (hmmm... what's the parallel parking equivalent on twitter?)
SOCIAL MEDIA
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
I’m guessing these responses really reflect people’s weighted averages (age*current average effort fraction) though I kept it simple and asked for just averages.


I suspect a healthy weighted average should be ~ (age-20)/2. So a 30 year old should be at 5, a 40 year old at 10, a 50 year old at 15 etc.

Standard deviation should be ~average/3 maybe, so distribution spreads as you age and accumulate projects and get better at them.

Other things being equal, people get good at starting in their 20s, at follow through in 30s, at finishing in 40s.

No point learning food follow through until you’ve found a few good starts to bet on. No point getting good at finishing until a few projects have aged gracefully.

I’m in the 7+ range myself. Probably 8-9. Slightly less than healthy for my age.

I suspect most self-judgments on being good starters/follow-through-ers/finishers are really flawed because of the non-ergodicity of project management skill learning. You can’t learn good practices for the 3 phases in an arbitrary order. On,y one order actually works.
FOR LATER READ

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Dynamic Stochastic Equilibrium Model Expert
Dynamic Stochastic Equ...
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Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis argues that it is not always obvious who (China or the U.S.) adjusts best to "turbulent changes."
Bitcoin answers that question.
Thread:


World economies currently suffer four major redistribution challenges:
The most important is increasing government stealth use of the monetary system to confiscate assets from productive actors.
/2

That process is exacerbated by "Cantillon Effect" transfers to interest groups close to government ("the entitled class," public sector workers, the medical industrial complex, academia, etc....), which is destroying much of that wealth /3

The shadow nature (see Keynes) of government inflation makes the process unidentifiable, un-addressable and undemocratic.
The biggest victims (America's poorly educated young) are unequipped to counter generational confiscation tactics of today's wily senior beneficiaries. /4

Government control of the numéraire in key economic statistics (GDP, inflation, etc...) makes it impossible for economic actors to measure progress and liabilities. /5
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D.I.Y Investing
D.I.Y Investing
@vajolleratzii
Prepare For The Biggest Bull Run In Crypto EVER.

I made some charts explaining the long term trend of #Ethereum and how identical it is to the early #Bitcoin cycles.

It's very obvious what's happening and has been in the charts for months.

I call this pattern the, "4 Year Bowl."

New years are a time of market shifts both bullish and bearish. Each cycle goes through 4 years of this rounded accumulation pattern. After year 4 we start 1 year of parabolic rise.


When you take a look at the same principle with the last #Bitcoin cycle you get almost the exact same outcome. Only difference is Bitcoin usually tops at the first of December and not January.

The 4 Year Bowl is identical with Ethereum and Bitcoin


When you lay them side by side you get a pretty insane correlation. The fact $ETH accumulated for 2 years at that range low makes me feel as if the parabolic rise will happen faster than everyone thought.

Look how identical it is to the last $BTC cycle. Who could argue against?


S/O to @BobLoukas for teaching me how cycles work. I was one of the first members on @BitcoinLive1 and Bob was the only person I listened to. True Legend.

So... How does "4 Year Cycle Theory" work?

Measure from peak low to peak low. Each cycle equals 4 years in distance.
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XRPatience
XRPatience
@xrpartisan
1/22 Why XRP will beat Bitcoin.

(Video version @ https://t.co/VIHEoHLYpN)

A thread. 👇


2/22 Despite last night's major Bitcoin correction, it still sits at $33k, well above the last bull run's all time high. With XRP currently at $0.28, it may seem rather ridiculous to think XRP will ever become #1.


3/22 However, it's important to compare Bitcoin and XRP not in terms of price, but market cap. That's because there are 100 billion XRP (and will never be more) and 19 million circulating Bitcoin (21 million max). So comparing the price of individual tokens doesn't work.


4/22 XRP's market cap is $12.6 billion. Bitcoin's is $623 (roughly 50x more, 55x if you factor in the 2 million Bitcoin not yet mined). That's a huge lead, but not as big as the 119,000x lead if you compare token price!


5/22 Bitcoin's primary advantage is its early adoption. It caught on earlier and became the front runner of crypto. Don't underestimate the power of being first. It gives a massive advantage. But it doesn't GUARANTEE being the winner long-term.
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Blake Burge \U0001f4a1
Blake Burge 💡
@blakeaburge
Think crypto is confusing?

You're right.

Let's make it easier.

Here's Crypto Terminology 101: 🧵

Altcoin:

Any coin that's not #Bitcoin

Ether (#ETH) is the second most popular coin overall and the most well-known Altcoin.

Ether is the native cryptocurrency on the Ethereum blockchain.

There are thousands of other altcoins, but for now, this is the one to know.

Bitcoin: (#BTC)

The first decentralized digital currency.

Launched in 2009 by an unknown person or organization known only as "Satoshi Nakamoto."

It is the most famous, and most valuable cryptocurrency.

Blockchain:

The core tech behind Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies.

An open, distributed, general ledger where transactions are organized into blocks which are then connected using cryptography.

Coin:

A store of digital value that lives on a blockchain.

Some blockchains, such as Bitcoin, use the same name for both the network and the coin.

Stable coins are another type of cryptocurrency which are backed by fiat currency (e.g the US dollar) or commodities such as Gold.
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Altcoin Sherpa
Altcoin Sherpa
@AltcoinSherpa
Quick Thread on #Altcoins/ #Altseason

Step 1: $BTC has a huge correction. Every range starts with either a pump (or dump) and then follows with a dump (or pump). In this case, #Bitcoin pumped and is now pulling back. This is


Step 2: $BTC ranges big once it finds a bottom. This will allow it to reaccumulate for a big summer run in 2021. This is HEALTHY IMO.


Step 3: Once $BTC finds a bottom and starts to grind up again, I expect $ALTS to do very very well in both alt/usd and alt/btc pairs. ALTSZN is almost always characterized by strong alt/btc pairs moving- I've already accumulated most and have done my final buying today and more.

$BTC.D typically has a very nice time during this time of the year. I was off on December prediction bc I thought $BTC was going to pull back by then but oh well! #Altcoins will start their pumping time VERY soon now.


More information on what #Altseason is and $ALTS market
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Rani Tarabai was the brave daughter-in-law of Chhatrapati Shivaji and one of the greatest medieval Monarchs India ever had.
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Tarabai was just 8yrs old when she was married to Shivaji's younger son, Rajaram. Mughals and Marathas were constantly at war with each other. Shivaji was crowned the ruler of the Independent Maratha Swarajya in 1674 which was established by him.


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Sambhaji's wife and son Shahu were taken prisoners to the Mughal court. During the same battle, Shivaji's second son Rajaram(Tarabai's husband) , who was the heir to the throne now, managed to escape using a disguise. He made his way to the Gingee Fort in Tamil Nadu.


Mughal General Zulfikar Khan, however, followed them to Gingee laying siege to the Gingee Fort. From 1690-1698,This was the longest siege by a Mughal Army of any Fort which stands testimony to the military and diplomatic credentials of Rani Tarabai.
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THE SCIENCE BEHIND YAJNA

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Among the many applications of fire, one is Yajna (यज्ञ, yajña); also called as Havana (हवन) or Agnihotra (अग्निहोत्र).
Yajna is elaborately described in Yajurveda. In Yajurveda, Yajna is the greatest among all works (Karman). One can purify his /her soul by performing Yajna.

In Vedic culture, it is thought that the holy fire is the mediator between Gods and us; when the offerings are made to Yajna with chanting mantras, it directly reaches the Gods, who bless the people with rains, food, health, and good luck.

According to Apastamba Sutra, the definition of Yajna is Vedic sacrifice; an act by which we surrender something for gods e.g. grains (Anna), pulse, milk and milk product (ghee, butter, curd) fruits, plant juice (soma), etc.

As we said; Yajna is the contact medium for gods and

to seek their blessings.

There are many types of Yajna performed by Hindus for e.g.,

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Master Thread of all my threads!

Hello!! 👋

• I have curated some of the best tweets from the best traders we know of.

• Making one master thread and will keep posting all my threads under this.

• Go through this for super learning/value totally free of cost! 😃

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Got these scanners from the following accounts:

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Here's some details... Read on.

...it took me another 5 minutes to get qualified for options.

If I share a sign up I get "free shares" and I can share as much as I want up to 500$ worth.

The main UI has a prepopulated "list" of stocks/crypto to watch and links to news.


Clicking a stock opens a "trade" button that looks like this.

Notice options is first, buy second.

Options took me to an approval process (which took about a minute) and now away I go trading Baba options.


Buying stock looks like this. It emphasizes fractional shares.
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