/thread/ It has been almost 2 months since the end of the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and after observing it from the start and talking about it with (or listening to) some really smart people, here are IMO important lessons (new or old) from that conflict:

1. Even in smaller conflicts, U(C)AVs are making achieving air superiority, or at least denying it to the opponent, a lot more important than it used to be.

2. Effective distribution of real-time data from U(C)AVs (and loitering munitions, which can be launched to perform recon when other assets are not available) can significantly increase the effectiveness of even relatively old artillery systems.

3. While airpower is getting incredibly deadly and can quickly inflict massive material damage, you still need units on the ground with a strong will to fight despite taking casualties (and political will to accept that in serious modern wars, significant losses are inevitable).

4. Soldiers need to be aware that on a modern battlefield there are not really any "safe areas" and TTPs (tactics techniques procedures) need to be changed to reflect this.

Chile is the poster child for extreme economic inequality in a developed country. I spent time there last year for my book (which has a chapter on Chile) and what I found hardest to understand is why there wasn't more political unrest. Now there

A few choice facts about Chile and inequality:

In Chile, the social security system is basically designed to redistribute wealth from the masses to the rich, because workers are required to put their savings into private investment funds that charge ridiculous fees.

The commitment to private industry runs deep. If the available water is sufficient either for drinking or growing avocados... well, you get the idea.

The result in Chile is two worlds, side by side.

And what is most remarkable is that, for the longest time, even the ostensibly left-wing parties were on board. Chile's socialists basically don't like socialism.

My Notes on Democracy Part 1

MANUFACTURING Dl55ENT AND MODI'S RESPONSE - AN ANALYSIS

DlS5ENT is allowed in a democracy. Any democratic leader or government will uphold - and MUST uphold its citizens's right to DlS5ENT.

This thread analyses the recent Indian experience.

Some years ago, a western country displayed a movie on India in their visitor centre. Showed @Narendramodi the then Gujarat CM as a devil incarnate drinking the blood of MU5LlM.

A tough battle with the authorities resulted in taking down this video.

Lesson - this obscure country which Modi never visited till date has little to do with Indian politics. Yet, there is this need to stop Modi in his tracks of becoming the future PM by smearing him.

Most of you may have noticed Modi as a potential PM in the last decade.

But the Break India F0rces saw this before 2000. It was no surprise as he was the architect of BJP win in the state. This explains why Godhra, the best managed riot turned into a career-defining event for Modi-Shah.

Who are these people and what is their connection to the topic?

C0MMUNl5T5. As most of us know, Political C'sm is but a surface body of an underground larger body. It has many voices, resources, money, and massive techniques in social sciences, economics, and government machinery.

Almost all 'isms' are products of C'sm.

President Muhammadu Buhari’s romance with Niger Republic has become an affront to the national interest of Nigeria. When he was sworn-in as an elected president in 2015 he went to Mamadou Issoufou’s presidential palace in Niamey, Niger Republic, to celebrate.

They gave him the reception of a conquering Fulani warlord: a white horse and sword.
I found that curious. How can a Nigerian leader celebrate his electoral victory in a foreign country and not Daura, his supposed hometown in Nigeria?

Answer has since been provided through Buhari’s policy actions in the past 5+ years. We have since learnt that Buhari is a first-generation Nigerian whose father, Ardo Adamu Buhari, a duck seller, had migrated from Niger, settled in Nigeria and married a Nigerian woman, Zulaihat.

The borders defined by the European colonial masters mean nothing to typical Northerners. When you hear that Nigerian borders are porous, what it really means is that there is no intention in the minds of Northern Nigerians and their elite to create an effective barrier between..

them and their kith and kin in the neighbouring countries of Niger, Chad and Northern Cameroun. Meanwhile, the Southern borders are strictly monitored (within the limits permitted by the selfish interests of corrupt Customs and Immigration officials).

In keeping with year-end tradition, I wanted to share the best books I read in 2020 – a year unlike any other - with a list of reads heavily influenced by global events including…

…Race and social justice. While not a planned reading theme as I started the year, social injustices that have plagued our nation for centuries rose up in a jolting manner. May we pass on to our children and grandchildren a more socially just world than we received.

Frederick Douglass, David Blight

Douglass was a self-educated slave who freed himself to become a tireless speaker, political leader & passionate reformer. Even reading his speeches today, you feel drawn to the power, drama & personal suffering of this great man.

Bonhoeffer, Eric Metaxas & Timothy Keller

Theologian, Pastor, Church Leader & spy/traitor. Quite a resume for an influential young German aristocrat. Details the rise of Hitler & pure evil unleashed in the face of the pure good of Christ as seen through Bonhoeffer’s eyes.

So You Want To Talk About Race, Ijeoma Oluo

Jarring. We have so far to go as we confront the realities of systemic racism. Since reading I've sought out reverse mentors to try and learn more. Get comfortable with being uncomfortable. (Much profanity for those sensitive to such)

#NEIOH

1. Beloved Ones!

We Have Important Matters To Discuss With You!  If You Believe This Is A Joke, You Should Leave Now. We Do Not Joke When It Comes To This Planet. AKATU Will Lighten Things To Cheer You. What We Share Now Will Inform You.

A Thread
Joseph Hope, Editor-in-Chief of the New York Times:
Narendra Modi's sole aim is to make India a better Country.If he is not stopped, in the future India will become the most Powerful Nation in the World.. It will surprise the United States, the United Kingdom & Russia

Narendra Modi is moving towards a specific goal.. No one knows what he wants to do..

Behind the Smiling face, a dangerous Patriot.. He uses all the Countries of the world for the benefit of his Nation India..

Destroyed US ties with Pakistan and Afghanistan..

Narendra Modi has created an alliance with Vietnam, shattered China’s Superpower dream and made use of the 3 Countries.The longrunning dispute over oil extraction overseas between Vietnam and China has benefited India.. With India's support,Vietnam began producing Oil

In China's Southern Seas..
It supplies all of its Oil to India.. The United States has different support for this. He made Pakistan a poor Country.He brought the Port of Iran under his control.

He has set up an Indian Military base on the border with Afghanistan,very close to the area that divides Pakistan. In order to increase Indian trade, he has also built a route through Iran (leaving Pakistan) to Afghanistan..
Narendra Modi’s desires are going one by one.

THREAD

1)
#Iran’s regime has a network of apologists/lobbyists in the US influencing foreign policymakers.

Kaveh Afrasiabi was recently arrested for acting as an agent of #Iran's regime.
https://t.co/fJq6jRtBha

There are more.

cc: @TheJusticeDept

13 years ago, Imad Mughnieh was unlawfully assassinated in #Damascus. Both the CIA and the Mossad claimed credit. Haj Imad managed to survive for 25 years away from his killers (incl some Arab States) and transformed #Hezbollah to another level of deterrence against #Israel.+

He introduced changes within #Hezbollah structure and was known to be fair with all militants. He has created an innovation sector within Hezbollah and handsomely paid for any qualified person to materialise new ideas related to science, health and military fields.+

During the last year, around 2006-2007, Haj Imad became more visible domestically and regionally. He was the one meeting political and military leaders, including allies and his name became more known as the "assistant of the Jihadi council Leader (Sayyed Nasrallah) +

#Hezbollah has lost an important leader and a very close friend and companion to Sayyed Nasrallah. However, Hezbollah moved from domestic to regional power, operating in #Lebanon to defend the country from #Israel's intentions and imposed deterrence that Israel has lost. +

#Hezbollah moved to #Syria to the request of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad & to #Iraq when Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki asked the help of Hezbollah against #ISIS and to #Yemen to the request of Sanaa' government to stand against a very large coalition led by US and Saudi.

Let me talk to those who are planning to buy cars these year; Buying a car is good. Very essential for making life easier. However, a car isn’t cheap, the cheapest car is around 450USD in Kenya. Today owning a car may seem very easy as compared to the 70s, THREAD 1/3

Today you can buy a car either in cash 💰, by bank finance, hire purchase and through trade in. But my interest on this post is on bank financing and Hire purchase. Bank finance is where the bank buys for you a car and you pay the bank for a period of time.

Hire purchase terms of purchase is where by you identify a car in a dealership, negotiate for its final price, pay an agreed deposit upfront then clear balance in defined period of time I.e in 6/12/18/20/24 months. So HP =Deposit + total Monthly Installments.

Whenever a bank offers to buy you a car, there is always a 99.9% chance that they will retain the logbook[A substitute for a collateral in lending] A logbook is the only instrument of ownership for any car in Kenya. So the bank will issue you with your logbook once you finish,

Finish paying for the car. The only problem I have with bank financing is the possibility of the buyer losing the car and servicing the loan. It has happened and it does happen. The bank repossesses the car and they auction it. You shall have lost two important things; the money

Thread on Invisible China: Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's illuminating and scary deep dive into rural China's ills and stark inequality. No matter how bad you think it is, it's worse there---more like a developing country than a global superpower. 1/n

2/Rozelle rolled up his sleeves to understand the CN most only see from plane or train windows. Issues in health and education, bringing down human capital of 300m rural Chinese, could trap it in middle income status.

Think future like Mexico/Turkey now, not Korea/Taiwan

3/Most focus on impressive elite universities and high schools topping int'l rankings, but CN average education levels are abysmal.

Only 30% of China's working age pop completed high school--last place for all middle income countries, worse than many poor countries!

4/TIL a startling fact: school in CN through grade 9 became free & mandatory only in 2006! Even today high school is not free in CN! Want to go through grade 12? Pay fees of 10-15x incomes for poor rural areas. Instead they drop out to work unskilled jobs. Xi has promised to fix

5/No country has escaped middle income trap below 50% HS grad rates, and avg for successful countries (now high income) is 76%. Why? HS skills not important for repetitive assembly jobs, but w/o ability to learn & basic skills in math and reading, can't do more productive jobs

Some quick reactions to the new lockdowns in Europe.

1. The degree of uncertainty is much higher than in the first wave. In the first wave, the (incorrect) belief was that the infection rate would quickly decrease and remain low thereafter.

Enough Jaw Jaw, this is War!
1. People's Justice Courts to be set up worldwide
2. Citizens' arrests of all Identified Suspects
3. Lab Inspections
3. Harsh interrogation using MKULTRA
4. Public Show Trials video streamed live
5. Cross Questioning of suspects via Twitter & Zoom
6.

A growing list of suspects to be interrogated

Foul Traitors, Charlatans, Frauds, Bat Molesters! Frankensteins, Well Poisoners, Plotters, Deceivers!
Dr. Shipmans, Saboteurs, Devils in White Coats!

Organisations to be Investigated
WIV
Wuhan University IMA
WIBP
WCDC
BEIJING IPB
Nanjing Military Lab
SinoPharm
BARDA
NIH
EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS
BIOPORT
GILEAD
SIAC
QTEL
USAMRIID
FORT DETRICK
DARPA
DTRA
Metbiota
ONE HEALTH
GVP
ECOHEALTH
MITRE
BATTELLE
TUNNELL
LAURIMA GOV SERVICES

Suspects (1)
China
Zhengli Shi
Peng Zhou
George Gao
Deyin Guo
Major General Chen Wei
United States
ALEX AZAR
JONNA MAZET
ALISON O’TOOLE
ANTHONY FAUCI
BOYD YOUNT
DAVID FRANZ
DAVID KARESH
DENNIS CARROLL
DYLAN GEORGE
GEORGE PAINTER
IAN LIPKIN
JENS KUHN
JEROME HAUER
JONATHAN EPSTEIN

The fascist danger is not over: a thread. 1/ What's important is that Trump incited the attack; the administration did not stop him; the chain of command protecting the legislature evaporated; and he is still in office inciting objections to the

2/ The Proud Boys led this, but the militias were largely absent. 45% of Republican voters *support* the attack on Congress. This is what Fox, Parler and the talk radio shows have created: a mass fascist network prepared to overthrow the US Constitution...

3/ There are similar moments in the 1930s... Hitler's Schluss Jetzt slogan in 1932 - "end the republic now" - and Paris 6 Feb 1934, when a fascist mob stormed parliament...

4/ The key is to demand the police do their job while preparing for them to break under pressure and via collusion. That's what let Mussolini's thugs march to power and, in the late stages, allowed the SA to run riot in Germany...

5/ I want all liberal and democratic politicians to say, today, "I am antifascist" - it's a moment to choose: you can't ignore them anymore. We have to fight them as in the 1930s... an alliance of the centre and the left...

THREAD

1)
#Iran’s regime is increasing its measures aimed at interfering in U.S. elections.

@DNI_Ratcliffe shed light on this important matter.

Americans should be aware that Iran is pursuing this initiative specifically through its US-based lobby arm @NIACouncil.

Chinese president Xi Jinping is the lead speaker at this week's Davos Agenda, the World Economic Forum's online summit.

Xi lays out four priorities for world:

1) Step up "macroeconomic policy coordination" and promote "strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth of the world economy";

2) Abandon ideological prejudice and "jointly follow a path of peaceful coexistence." Says no country is superior to another. "There would be no human civilization without diversity," he adds, taking aim at "arrogance, prejudice and hatred";

3) Close the divide between developed and developing countries. "With the growth of developing countries, global prosperity and security will be put on a more (solid) footing"; and,

4) "Come together against global challenges and jointly create a better future for humanity." "No global problem can be solved by any one country alone. There must be global action, global response, and global cooperation."

The Great Northern Forests of Canada, Russia and Scandinavia are doomed to destruction due to the most severe expected temperature increases from global warming anywhere on Earth which will turn them to savannah within decades with severe consequences for all life on Earth.

*An extensive review of studies published in the journal Science found that the boreal forest can't migrate north fast enough to outpace the impacts of a changing climate.*

"This forest will convert to a type of savannah."

'consequences..will be

'feedback loops created by permafrost melt and wildfire destruction represent just a few of the worrisome effects of climate change in the boreal. Boreal forest ecosystems are particularly at risk to the rising temperatures of climate change'.

'Worrisome'!https://t.co/zZNKrRnqoZ

'Boreal forests aren’t just important for the climate. They are also home to over 20,000 species and of these more than 300 species listed in the IUCN Red List.. from woodland caribou in North America, and Blakiston’s fish owl in Russia, to Siberian

'When you add up both the absorption and emission, Canada's forests haven't been a net carbon sink since 2001. Due largely to forest fires and insect infestations, the trees have actually added to..greenhouse gas emissions for each of the past 15

Thread – Excerpt from a Ross Rant (Election-related)

1. These following are excerpts from a recent “Ross Rant.” Joel Ross publishes these periodic reports that provide commentary on the changing scene with an eye toward wise future investments.

2.

There never was going to be a new stimulus deal. Pelosi did not want to do anything that might help Trump, and she was hoping to trap McConnell, and make him look like he killed it so they could argue the Dems need to control the Senate.

3. My sense is that backfired. It is clear to most that she is the problem, and why, and that she does not give a damn about the people who are suffering. It is all about getting power. Unfortunately, Wall St kept being fooled thinking there would be a deal.

4. So the market was up and down depending on which false rumor they believed. Classic Wall St. Buy on rumor and hope. Sell when it does not happen, then buy again. Trader’s dream.

5. The EU is now in the midst of a major virus surge and that will kill any hope of a near term economic rebound as lockdowns get put back on. While in the US there are a few stories of hospitals in rural areas getting to capacity, reality is, most of the US has lots of capacity.

12 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #EO13959

Did We Declare War Against China In November?

I was tagged on a video that's going round this morning. It's got our new, very strange friend Simon Parks, Charlie Ward, and a gal, don't know her last name, named Danielle.