If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
2/ The sum of ETH holdings of ICO treasuries is now a little over 3.57M ETH (3.5% of supply). In April, the treasuries held 4.65 million ETH (4.5% of supply) indicating that they likely liquidated (or moved) about 23% since then.
3/ Despite the decline in ETH price, the selloff hasn’t been as drastic as many analysts anticipated. In the past two months, treasuries of projects that held ICOs liquidated (or moved) 172,00 ETH, or ~4.6% of total holdings.
4/ The most aggressive sellers were Status, district0x and Tierion (in order), which sold (or moved) nearly 55,000 ETH combined since September 9. Out of the 57 companies I tracked, 50% didn’t touch any of the ETH in their treasuries.
5/ At least 11 ICOs currently have a smaller “market capitalization” than the amount that they hold in their ETH treasuries alone (see table below).
$XHV $SCRT $RUNE
Throughout my research, @HavenXHV The Haven protocol renewed my faith, that privacy wasn't just a temporary trend, but something with actual, sustainability. The creation of a private bank, exchange, and access to real world assets in completely privacy of my own vault. $XHV
Haven's offering to the world, with it's private assets $xUSD $xEUR $xGOLD and xSilver, made me research what else can be done privately, now that I have private stable coin options. My first question was, if I wanted to sell my private assets, how would I do it? $XHV
It didn't take me long before I discovered $RUNE and @thorchain_org and their cross chain liquidity pools and decentralized exchange capabilities. How anyone can offer liquidity and earn rewards and trading fees for doing so. But also,how all trading pairs,are interchangable.
This made me realize that as Thorchain grows in popularity,they will provide the ability for everyone, across the cryptosphere,to trade any coin for any coin. Kind of like uniswap, but cross chain,and outside, yet including, the erc-20 ecosystem. It's uniswap on steroids. $XHV
Here's their CFO describing their agreement (which we know from other litigation was never contractualized because, presumably because money launderers hate paper trails):
Bitfinex's CFO was shocked, shocked to learn that the money launderer they engaged to provide money laundering services while I-swear-to-God-this-is-an-actual-quote "we learned to bank like criminals" may have from time to time lied to banks.
"Institutional constraints" means, here, "We were attempting to avoid velocity checks placed by our banking partners to detect fraud and money laundering, which would have detected our fraud and money laundering."
Money at the speed of code, yadda yadda yadda, the Bitcoin economy is surprisingly blasé when several hundred million dollars is in an interstitial state for months.
In a situation never before encountered by a financial institution: the check was not, in fact, in the mail.
We’ve doubled since the last time I updated this thread, so I thought it would be of some value to update it. Feeling insecure about price action? Too enthusiastic/scared? Maybe this helps a bit, go check it out!
TLDR at 27-29
2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses the 2Y MA. Green line is the 2Y MA, red is the same MA x5
2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~48k rn. Price goes parabolic. I would personally love to get a decent correction, would give more space for growth long term imho.
3/ Relative Unrealized P/L
Paper p/l in $Btc. Use it to track investor sentiment.
Market is overheating, everybody is in paper profits, but as you can see “we” as a whole take too less profit. We can stay around greed for a whole year, but a correction at this point makes sense
4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
Colors are attached to % increase of MA
Blue/purple = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
First green coming(?) Room for growth
5/ MVRV Z-score.
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.
Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Red=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.
Now: heating up. Correction first to cool it off plz :)
Nice uptick in realized value.
what's the simplest, most effective method of trading a market that trends as hard as cryptocurrencies?
one trendline on its own is strong, but when you put two together you quickly realize just how powerful this simple tool can be.
i've been using triangles for as long as i can remember.
it seems dumb, and almost counter-intuitive to approach such a complex game like trading with such a simple approach like shapes...but maybe when markets start acting stupid its okay to dumb down our approach.
look, not all triangles are the same.
anybody can draw some lines on a chart any way they'd like. sometimes, we let our bias affect our charts rather than the other way around.
i personally have done this more times than i can count.
you see...triangles (and analysis as a whole) is not necessarily intended to make trading easier as much as it is to make trading simple.
you want a fluid bias that can change easily, rather than one relying on 10 steps of conflicting confirmation before entering a new trade
trendlines enable us to maintain a fluid bias.
i mean, how much simpler can it be than "above this line bullish, below this line bearish" ? 😂
one trendline on its own can be enough to make a good trade, but when you put two together it can turn a good trade into a great one.
A moment wholly unique in the history of markets.
Are you ready for what comes next? 👇
2/ A perfect storm of demand dynamics is driving #Bitcoin price.
I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
3/ After years asleep at the wheel, institutional leaders are now jarred awake, en masse.
If they want this asset: they'll have to hustle, compete with the masses and FOMO in above ATH's.
Against a backdrop of scarcity unlike anything they've ever seen.
4/ They will buy *all* dips.
Their bots will not stop buying.
There isn't enough supply for all of them, and they know it.
5/ And the whales who accumulated much lower?
How much appetite will strong hands have to market sell, just to run stops?
In the opening hours of the greatest bull market of their lives.
In a liquidity crisis.
With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.
But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?
Here's Lindy Effect 101!
1/ First, a few definitions.
The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.
Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.
While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.
3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.
The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.
He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.
With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
(Video version @ https://t.co/VIHEoHLYpN)
A thread. 👇
2/22 Despite last night's major Bitcoin correction, it still sits at $33k, well above the last bull run's all time high. With XRP currently at $0.28, it may seem rather ridiculous to think XRP will ever become #1.
3/22 However, it's important to compare Bitcoin and XRP not in terms of price, but market cap. That's because there are 100 billion XRP (and will never be more) and 19 million circulating Bitcoin (21 million max). So comparing the price of individual tokens doesn't work.
4/22 XRP's market cap is $12.6 billion. Bitcoin's is $623 (roughly 50x more, 55x if you factor in the 2 million Bitcoin not yet mined). That's a huge lead, but not as big as the 119,000x lead if you compare token price!
5/22 Bitcoin's primary advantage is its early adoption. It caught on earlier and became the front runner of crypto. Don't underestimate the power of being first. It gives a massive advantage. But it doesn't GUARANTEE being the winner long-term.
2/ Bitcoin's monetary system marches on its continuously-lowering coin emission; meanwhile, other world monetary systems' units inflate, either naturally (like gold & silver ounces), or via monopolistic privilege (like government fiat money "printing").
3/ What follows isn't a lesson in stimulus or bailouts, whatever the world faces. It's an attempt at painting the monetary landscape around the globe. The dollars, euros, and yen we're all familiar with, collectively, are worth $25 trillion. This is an exercise in perspective.
4/ As many know, the response from governments worldwide to Covid-19 has been drastic, so expect big moves. Also interestingly, central banks have been much slower to update their data these days.
5/ Gold & silver is base money of the past. Government fiat is base money today. It comprises both physical cash… and a digital cash component. Bitcoin may be base money of the future. Before we get to the charts, it's important to clarify a few common misconceptions in money.
Let's talk about how interest-bearing cash on a blockchain is going to revolutionise boring corporate treasury management that concerns every company is is a larger business than all crypto trading in the world.
Enter the thread
2/ Blockchain community is often seen as toxic maxis and redditors who shill other their weekly favourite shitcoin in the hope of getting Lambo.
Sometimes we also do things that progress humanity towards the better future and interest-bearing cash is one of those things.
3/ Less chad and more things that actually matter:
My incomplete theory of interest-bearing cash is also available also as a blog post:
It is 15 pages. Pick your slow poison or die fast by continue reading here.
4/ First time in the history we have an ability to create interest-bearing cash-like instruments.
Interest-bearing cash ticks up dollar (euro) balance real-time in your wallet.
Here is a demonstration using @aaveaave aDAI, based on @makerdao DAI, and @TrustWalletApp
5/ Interest-bearing cash is not like your bank's saving account. Your money in a bank is not yours, but bank's. There are some flaws in the current banking system causing a headache for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs)
(Video version @ https://t.co/7zJCuKrpqx)
A thread. 👇
2/20 On a normal day outside a bull run, Bitcoin takes ~10 mins to transfer, at a cost of about $0.50. Any time network activity ramps up, those times and fees multiply. Bitcoin's Proof of Work system is painfully slow and can only handle 7 transactions per second.
3/20 To attempt to solve this problem, the Lightning Network is being developed. It's a 2nd layer network that sits on top of Bitcoin's blockchain. It's been in the works since 2015. Yes, 6 years. Do you know anybody who uses it? Me, either, but I'll get to that.
4/20 Lightning works by opening "channels" between parties. Those parties can perform as many Bitcoin transactions as needed and then close the channel. Because the transactions aren't written to the Bitcoin blockchain until the channel is closed, it's much faster.
5/20 Individual payment channels between various parties combine to form a network of lightning nodes that can route transactions among themselves. The resulting interconnections between various payment channels is the Lightning Network.
So what is exactly #ODAP and why this makes $QNT one of the most significant and, regarding #crypto mcap, undervalued projects?
Time for a THREAD⬇️
1/ODAP is the protocol for communication between gateways, primarily with an enterprise focus.
So banks, central banks etc. would run a gateway in Overledger Network and ODAP would be the protocol for gateways to communicate with each other in a secure and trustless manner. $QNT
Attending @ietf 109 to discuss our ODAP proposal with @MIT today. We\u2019re in the secdispatch session. They even have a virtual conference centre. #IETF109 https://t.co/2i9d5JxtR0 pic.twitter.com/osv2LCEUGx— Gilbert Verdian (@gverdian) November 16, 2020
2/ #ODAP Interfaces are the open source connectors that will connect a gateway to #blockchains and any existing network / API. That is based on the standards from work done at ISO TC 307 which 57 countries are working towards.
$QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian is the founder of TC307.
3/We know from the submitted drafts via #IETF (the Internet Engineering Task Force) $QNT is working on #ODAP with:
but, there’s more to the story as we found out from Gilbert that US Government, Juniper, payment and telecom companies are also there.
4/So how it all started with #ODAP?
Let’s go back to $QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian’s interview with Santiago Velez on #RealVision (October 14th) and try to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.
I’ll forward his words ⬇️
The #Blockchain Revolution and Economic Changes— Real Vision (@RealVision) October 28, 2020
What kind of world does @gverdian envision? How will @quant_network change the existing structure to benefit us all?
Real Vision journalists examine @gverdian & @Santiag78758327 latest interview.https://t.co/dfDAjDFbF3
Musk is seen as a genius, a true Midas, by many investors and millennials. For them he can never go wrong. He became recently the richest man in the world dur to Tesla stock valuation (+353% yoy). He moves markets and today´s announcement is “kind of legitimise “ bitcoin 2/
Tesla shares attained $870 which represents a Price/ Earnings ratio of 1.747 (!) on the basis of last year´s profits. Apple is at 37 and the S&P firms average is 23 (against a historical average ≈16). Future profits would have to increase a lot to justify a more normal ratio 3/
Tesla has a good product but the question is if it will sell enough cars to get such profits in face of coming fierce competition. However, this is not the question I want to comment upon. It is also not about what may interest the SEC and market conduct…4/
It was not disclosed when Tesla had made this investment. In December, Musk said that Tesla could buy bitcoin, and this was followed by many statements that he supported bitcoin. Bitcoin kept going up & Tesla investment has appreciated. The SEC will look into this 5/
To make this transition easy & understandable for everyone, we are answering most frequently asked questions here.
Ready? Go! 🔥
Q1 - What are the benefits of holding the $VALUE token on the Ethereum Mainnet network? Give me reasons not to sell. Some are assuming that the VALUE token will be abandoned now that vBSWAP is being created. Can you clarify the use case for VALUE?
👉 $VALUE will always be a governance & profit receiving token of the whole ecosystem if staked in #vGov. With the new farming token on #BSC , gvVALUE holders will get extra rewards at BSC if they choose to bridge their gvVALUE to BSC & stake in gvVALUE-B/BUSD 98/2 pool.
Q2 - What do I need to do with my VALUE tokens that are staked in vGov? Is it OK to leave them in the vGov?
👉If you have VALUE but aren't staking in the vGov & you would like to participate in the BSC expansion, you will need to stake your VALUE in the vGov to receive gvVALUE.
If you are staking in vGov but don't see the correct gvVALUE amount in your wallet, go to vGov (https://t.co/udXn5IJtVx) to unlock your gvVALUE from the old contract. There will be a bridge from ETH to BSC to move gvVALUE and vUSD over.
1- Metal standards were never inflexible; they could not in order to operate properly. Qty of metal was changed, usually lowered, to accommodate for changing economic conditions: price of metal, scarcity of coins, financial needs of economic units (state and private), etc.
2- The purpose of a monetary system is to make the rest of the economy go. It is there to accommodate financial needs. The more elastic one can design the supply, the better.
That doesn't mean that monetary creation & destruction shouldn't follow any rules & have no constraint.
3- Rules and constraint impose depend on economic system and evolve over time has we learn how to manage better the system. In a capitalist economy, the private sector is subject to the profitability constraint. We have learned from experience that this is not enough.
3 (ii) Financial stability requires a "hedge finance" constraint for most private agents: profitability should be judged on income gains, not capital gains.
In the government sector, the constraints are ressource availability and political constraints.
2020 will be remembered as the year the long fabled institutions finally arrived and #Bitcoin became a bonafide macroeconomic asset.
Below are the top highlights of each month for Bitcoin’s historic year.
Bitcoin is now at all-time highs capping off an extremely successful year.
But it was by no means stable ride up.
2020 was a historically volatile year.
@YoungCryptoPM and I provided a detailed overview of every month of 2020 in all its
3 days into the new year the US assassinated Iran’s top general Soleimani.
BTC surprisingly reacted to the events behaving like a safe haven as the risk of war increased.
The events provided the first hints of BTC potentially having graduated to a legitimate macro asset.
COVID-19 reached a tipping point causing markets to crash.
BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an ATH in the following weeks.
This is when everyone learned BTC was not a recession hedge, it was a hedge against inflation and loss of confidence in fiat currencies. https://t.co/JB7dJ3qp6M
1/ Figure I should get out ahead of this issue:— Dan McArdle (@robustus) June 22, 2018
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation & loss of confidence in fiat, NOT a hedge against a typical recession.
Financial markets in free fall.
The liquidity crisis was so severe BTC experienced one of it’s worst days ever.
Now known as Black Thursday, on March 12, BTC plummeted as much as 50% to below $4,000 at its lowest point on the day.
BTC closed the day down 40%
1) Don't take advice about Bitcoin from those with a vested interest in seeing its price rise. That's like listening to CDO dealer in 2006. When prices go up, critical thought go down
2) Bitcoin is fascinating from a tech perspective, but don't fall for the rhetoric of monetary revolution. I was among the early users of Bitcoin & actually tried to use it as 'money', but it's not a monetary system. It's a system of cyber-collectibles, priced in dollars
3) By all means pass your money to a seller of these collectibles, but don't do so under the illusion that you're engaging in rebellion, or that you're doing prudent investment. You're doing what you're doing, which is buying a collectible from someone who is taking your money
4) Unlike many other collectibles, Bitcoin has no actual features, other than the fact that it can be moved around. It has a highly innovative issuance & movement mechanism, but that's somewhat meaningless if the thing being issued and moved is featureless
5) In fact, its only feature is its logo and the language that surrounds it. Without that the tokens are basically just blank digital objects, the digital equivalent of passing around fragments of limited edition clear glass beads