If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
2/ The sum of ETH holdings of ICO treasuries is now a little over 3.57M ETH (3.5% of supply). In April, the treasuries held 4.65 million ETH (4.5% of supply) indicating that they likely liquidated (or moved) about 23% since then.
3/ Despite the decline in ETH price, the selloff hasn’t been as drastic as many analysts anticipated. In the past two months, treasuries of projects that held ICOs liquidated (or moved) 172,00 ETH, or ~4.6% of total holdings.
4/ The most aggressive sellers were Status, district0x and Tierion (in order), which sold (or moved) nearly 55,000 ETH combined since September 9. Out of the 57 companies I tracked, 50% didn’t touch any of the ETH in their treasuries.
5/ At least 11 ICOs currently have a smaller “market capitalization” than the amount that they hold in their ETH treasuries alone (see table below).
Here's their CFO describing their agreement (which we know from other litigation was never contractualized because, presumably because money launderers hate paper trails):
Bitfinex's CFO was shocked, shocked to learn that the money launderer they engaged to provide money laundering services while I-swear-to-God-this-is-an-actual-quote "we learned to bank like criminals" may have from time to time lied to banks.
"Institutional constraints" means, here, "We were attempting to avoid velocity checks placed by our banking partners to detect fraud and money laundering, which would have detected our fraud and money laundering."
Money at the speed of code, yadda yadda yadda, the Bitcoin economy is surprisingly blasé when several hundred million dollars is in an interstitial state for months.
In a situation never before encountered by a financial institution: the check was not, in fact, in the mail.
So what actually moves the prices of cryptocurrencies? We spent over a month parsing through data to answer that question for you 👀👀
Special thanks to @eToroUS for partnering with us on this research
Leveraging The TIE’s Crypto SigDev™ feed we set out to identify whether news moved the crypto market and what, if any, impact sentiment had following key announcements.
SigDevs are news on token updates or major events (like M&A and Listings).
Looking at maximum price increases within 24 hours after different SigDev announcements, we see that certain announcements tend to procure more responses than others. These are ordered from left to right in order of increasing average positive effect on price.
These initial results are intuitive: one would expect 51% attacks — a negative assault on a blockchain — to not typically have a positive effect on price, while getting listed on a new exchange (“Listing”) increases demand for a cryptocurrency and thus should increase value
Although Listings and Partnerships have an immediate large influence on price, it does not mean the increase is sustained.
We looked at how sustainable each SigDev was. Specifically, the max price 24 hours after each SigDev compared to the following week's average price
Once upon a time there was a genius called Satoshi, this anonymous character laid down a block, it was called the Genius Block, but we we spell it wrong to this day.
Then along came your standard noob who believed in freedom, we know this because he went by the name NewLibertyStandard.
He created a site to buy and sell Bitcoins.
On his site, he priced Bitcoin on electricity.
The price went up, the price went down.
Then one day, he changed the pricing system.
BTC was no longer priced at the cost of mining.
He priced it by DEMAND and SUPPLY.
Geeks and legendary futurists, bought and sold the rarest commodity on the Internet for pennies.
Price teleported upwards.
Then came a Magic The Gathering gamer. He smashed together a shaky piece of software called Magic The Gathering Exchange.
It became the first widely used BTC exchange.
The whole world sent this kid money to buy BTC.
A new market had unlocked. Price teleported.
Let's fast forward 6 glorious years of price teleportation events.
Many of the story details remain unknown to me, though I see their impact on the blockchain.
But let me bring you to the year 2017 and save you lots of reading...
Musk is seen as a genius, a true Midas, by many investors and millennials. For them he can never go wrong. He became recently the richest man in the world dur to Tesla stock valuation (+353% yoy). He moves markets and today´s announcement is “kind of legitimise “ bitcoin 2/
Tesla shares attained $870 which represents a Price/ Earnings ratio of 1.747 (!) on the basis of last year´s profits. Apple is at 37 and the S&P firms average is 23 (against a historical average ≈16). Future profits would have to increase a lot to justify a more normal ratio 3/
Tesla has a good product but the question is if it will sell enough cars to get such profits in face of coming fierce competition. However, this is not the question I want to comment upon. It is also not about what may interest the SEC and market conduct…4/
It was not disclosed when Tesla had made this investment. In December, Musk said that Tesla could buy bitcoin, and this was followed by many statements that he supported bitcoin. Bitcoin kept going up & Tesla investment has appreciated. The SEC will look into this 5/
To make this transition easy & understandable for everyone, we are answering most frequently asked questions here.
Ready? Go! 🔥
Q1 - What are the benefits of holding the $VALUE token on the Ethereum Mainnet network? Give me reasons not to sell. Some are assuming that the VALUE token will be abandoned now that vBSWAP is being created. Can you clarify the use case for VALUE?
👉 $VALUE will always be a governance & profit receiving token of the whole ecosystem if staked in #vGov. With the new farming token on #BSC , gvVALUE holders will get extra rewards at BSC if they choose to bridge their gvVALUE to BSC & stake in gvVALUE-B/BUSD 98/2 pool.
Q2 - What do I need to do with my VALUE tokens that are staked in vGov? Is it OK to leave them in the vGov?
👉If you have VALUE but aren't staking in the vGov & you would like to participate in the BSC expansion, you will need to stake your VALUE in the vGov to receive gvVALUE.
If you are staking in vGov but don't see the correct gvVALUE amount in your wallet, go to vGov (https://t.co/udXn5IJtVx) to unlock your gvVALUE from the old contract. There will be a bridge from ETH to BSC to move gvVALUE and vUSD over.
tl;dr: this is not a defence of Tether/ iFinex, who I would like nothing more than to see disappear into irrelevance. However, most of the conclusions here show zero understanding of crypto market
1. First up: it’s completely inexcusable that Tether refuse to have a 3rd party audit. I can’t find a single good faith reason for this.
Bitfinex GC recently did a superb job of sidestepping that question on WBD:
2. For better or worse, USDT (tether) started as a way for people to move fiat between exchanges (a major problem) in the absence of the ability to onboard banking partners, none of whom wanted to touch crypto. USDT is now the dominant stablecoin by mkt cap & liquidity.
3. As a result of the difficulty of having a fiat on/off rail, many exchanges, like Binance, chose to be ‘crypto only’, using stablecoins in lieu of fiat. This is why the majority of inflows into BTC (article says 70%) is via USDT
4. Unbanked exchanges are in aggregate larger than banked ones. This is true, but it’s not because of a giant conspiracy to steal your BTC. Being unbanked = real regulatory arbitrages (lower cost + ability to innovate fast), and lower barriers to entry means there’s more of them.
(This is not investment advice, or any other type of advice. DYOR)
1/ #ETH hits new ATH(s).
2/ #Bitcoin breaks $55K; but BTC YE2021 close is < $30K.
3/ > 3 billion-dollar crypto IPOs successfully occur (eg CoinBase, BlockFi, et al).
4/ @SBF_Alameda’s ‘off-chain BTC folding’ strategy goes unnoticed; whole crypto ecosystem wins!
A moment wholly unique in the history of markets.
Are you ready for what comes next? 👇
2/ A perfect storm of demand dynamics is driving #Bitcoin price.
I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
3/ After years asleep at the wheel, institutional leaders are now jarred awake, en masse.
If they want this asset: they'll have to hustle, compete with the masses and FOMO in above ATH's.
Against a backdrop of scarcity unlike anything they've ever seen.
4/ They will buy *all* dips.
Their bots will not stop buying.
There isn't enough supply for all of them, and they know it.
5/ And the whales who accumulated much lower?
How much appetite will strong hands have to market sell, just to run stops?
In the opening hours of the greatest bull market of their lives.
In a liquidity crisis.
2) Thanks to the increased application of blockchain & cryptocurrency in the region.
With a total pop. of 570M, a young demographic & high Internet usage, Southeast Asia (SEA) is promising for companies & investors in blockchain & crypto.
3) The use of blockchain in SEA has certainly come far ahead from the time when the technology was seen as another speculative commodity or a mere passing fad.
Today, the application of decentralized finance (DeFi) is under the limelight.
4) The region’s fast-growing economies are well-positioned to drive adoption of #blockchain & crypto. As each country competes to stay relevant in today’s digital age & embrace emerging technologies such as blockchain & #cryptocurrency, large-scale adoption is the key to success.
5) Here’s an overview of where the region is headed in terms of blockchain w/ respect to digital financial transactions.
As the financial hub for SEA, Singapore plays a critical role in supporting the region to push it forward technologically & financially.
At current price levels, hedging large option notionals has a major impact on price.
Here's a quick thread on options 👇
Let's start with the meaning of delta.
Delta is the rate of change of an option's price relative to a change in the price of its underlying.
For example, the price of a 50 delta option will move 50% as much as the underlying.
For practical purposes, think of it as how much of the underlying you have:
- if long 50 delta call on 1 BTC => long 0.5 BTC
- if long 50 delta put on 1 BTC => short 0.5 BTC
- if short 50 delta call on 1 BTC => short 0.5 BTC
- if short 50 delta put on 1 BTC => long 0.5 BTC
An option where the option's strike (i.e. exercise price) is equal to current spot price is known as an at-the-money option (ATM). ATM options have a delta of 50, while deep in the money options have a delta of close to 100.
Can also think of delta as probability. A 50 delta option has a 50% chance of expiring in the money.
For a call, the higher price goes => the more in the money the call => the higher the delta.
Once delta gets close to 100, odds are ~100% the option will expire in the money.
Key difference between the '17 and roaring 20s in crypto is that back then everyone was aping a16z and Naval.
Today everyone apes 3AC wanting to be the next Degen.
'17 was an idealistic *saving the world* kind of thing
20s is *me against the world*
1/ The financialization of crypto means more volatility but pretty long ascend to the top.
Multi-year bull and an ATH surprising even to the biggest bulls as the infinite Cantillon "wealth" is pumped into crypto
Crypto becomes the ultimate Cantillon insider circle-jerk.
2/ This will be one the most iconic ideological reversals in history, comparable to Google who was firmly against advertising but turned into the most powerful ad company ever.
3/ This scenario reminds me of the 90s privatization period in the post-socialist countries.
The regime transition allowed the communist party elite to benefit from the wild west form of "capitalism" that ensued, transferring (and multiplying) their wealth into the new regime.
4/ We are far from Satoshi's original vision . But words and intentions of *prophets* were used to manipulate and corrupt all throughout human history and this time it is no
At "forever" Cantillon insiders are infinitely wealthy. Everybody else lives in pods & eats what the livestock eats, or joins the harem or household staff of an infinitaire.— Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4) January 21, 2020
$XHV $SCRT $RUNE
Throughout my research, @HavenXHV The Haven protocol renewed my faith, that privacy wasn't just a temporary trend, but something with actual, sustainability. The creation of a private bank, exchange, and access to real world assets in completely privacy of my own vault. $XHV
Haven's offering to the world, with it's private assets $xUSD $xEUR $xGOLD and xSilver, made me research what else can be done privately, now that I have private stable coin options. My first question was, if I wanted to sell my private assets, how would I do it? $XHV
It didn't take me long before I discovered $RUNE and @thorchain_org and their cross chain liquidity pools and decentralized exchange capabilities. How anyone can offer liquidity and earn rewards and trading fees for doing so. But also,how all trading pairs,are interchangable.
This made me realize that as Thorchain grows in popularity,they will provide the ability for everyone, across the cryptosphere,to trade any coin for any coin. Kind of like uniswap, but cross chain,and outside, yet including, the erc-20 ecosystem. It's uniswap on steroids. $XHV
(Video version @ https://t.co/VIHEoHLYpN)
A thread. 👇
2/22 Despite last night's major Bitcoin correction, it still sits at $33k, well above the last bull run's all time high. With XRP currently at $0.28, it may seem rather ridiculous to think XRP will ever become #1.
3/22 However, it's important to compare Bitcoin and XRP not in terms of price, but market cap. That's because there are 100 billion XRP (and will never be more) and 19 million circulating Bitcoin (21 million max). So comparing the price of individual tokens doesn't work.
4/22 XRP's market cap is $12.6 billion. Bitcoin's is $623 (roughly 50x more, 55x if you factor in the 2 million Bitcoin not yet mined). That's a huge lead, but not as big as the 119,000x lead if you compare token price!
5/22 Bitcoin's primary advantage is its early adoption. It caught on earlier and became the front runner of crypto. Don't underestimate the power of being first. It gives a massive advantage. But it doesn't GUARANTEE being the winner long-term.
Short thread (by my standards...) with some ramblings that help me get through it 👇
1/10 Imo, some DeFi projects represent 10-1000x upside opportunities
Obviously, like all of crypto, it is extremely risky and can go to 0. That said, given the magnitude of potential outcomes, it just doesn't have to succeed that often to make it a massively +EV bet
2/10 As with all early stage tech, realising these outcomes will require 4-8 year holds
Unlike early stage tech, crypto investors will have liquidity, i.e. the possibility, and thus the temptation, to sell
This is both a blessing and a curse
3/10 A look at any of the best performing public stocks will show you that you cannot have 10-1000x upside potential without volatiliy and occasional large drawdowns
Crypto, as early stage tech, is much riskier than established public companies and thus even higher vol too
4/10 Obviously, one should take advantage of this liquidity as it allows for rebalancing. Most importantly, it also makes outcomes less binary and thus less volatile than traditional VC
However, one should not let the liquidity take advantage of us
First: What is #Altseason? The true altszn was seen in 2017/2018, where $BTC fell off a cliff and $ALTS were the 'safe haven' from btc dumping. ALTS went literally 1000%+ (many much higher). Since that time we have seen many #Altcoin pumps, starting primarily in late Q4 each year
These Altcoin pumps are usually 20-1000% gains on nearly the ENTIRE #Altcoin market. This is awesome to see and genius season- you can't lose. Dips are bought up quickly and both ALT/USD and ALT/BTC pairs pump HUGE. Are we currently in that environment? I'm not quite sure tbh.
I think that $BTC still has a little more gas in the tank, which would result in ALT/BTC pairs suffering IMO. You can see more of my thoughts on #Bitcoin below, but I think that we could see 1 more shakeout + then we could see a big run starting in December 2020 for $ALTS
As an #Altcoin trader, you need to understand several things for the environment in which to trade $ALTS successfully:
- $BTC PA
- and much more
While the entire US crypto industry (exchanges, funds, associations, PsPs, lobbyists, etc) is currently focused on fighting the AML rules proposed by FinCEN, the XRP Community has been left ALONE fighting the securities battle FOR THE BENEFIT of the whole industry.
The entire US crypto industry (excluding the XRP Community) has been miserably failing to acknowledge that, until now, all the SEC has had for purposes of characterising a blockchain-based token as a security under the Securities Act of 1933 ...
... is a 75 year-old judicial precedent (i.e. 1946 Howey Test), and some non-binding internal guidance. That's it. Nothing more. No clear federal regulations and no clear binding precedents.
Should the SEC definitively win the Complaint filed against Ripple, it would gain a contemporary (and *binding*) judicial precedent essentially defending the posture that it is rightful to apply a 75 year-old precedent to 2020's cutting edge technology, ...
... giving the SEC's enforcement division a clear path moving forward within the crypto industry.
With such precedent (which the SEC hasn't been able to obtain so far, as a result of the early settlements reached with other crypto projects), the SEC would be ...