BC WORLD
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Let's talk about that "Longer Telegram" making the rounds...and why it's a

 First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...
...a two page table of contents...
...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).
Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.

https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
But Kennan's "Long Telegram" is called "The Long Telegram" because it was, in fact, a telegram.

Kennan is even apologetic about that fact, as he writes at the beginning, "I apologize in advance for this burdening of telegraphic channel"
Also, Kennan's "Long Telegram" was long for a telegram, but not as a report. It clocks in at 18.5 pages.
Second, the Kennan-obsession of "The Longer Telegram"'s author is also evident by the author choosing to be anonymous.
But here is a fun fact: Kennan put his NAME on the Long Telegram
The ANONYMOUS writing came a year later (July 1947), when Kennan expanded the telegram into a report that was then published in @ForeignAffairs under the title "The Sources of Soviet Conduct"

Oh, and it wasn't "Anonymous", it was "X"
For those keeping track, the FA article was 17 pages.
Third, I love bullet points & numbered lists. I really do (ask anyone who has served on a committee with me). But "The Longer Telegram" is just TOO much.

Nearly every page of the "Executive Summary" is a list.
It doesn't get much better in the report itself.

I mean, here's a page that makes the bold move of transitioning from a bullet point list to a number list....
...where the number list then goes on for several pages!
Now, it's true that Kennan used numbered/lettered lists in his telegram. But that's because it was...again...a TELEGRAM (it also had missing words in spots as is common with telegrams)

Even then, none of the lists had 17 (SEVENTEEN!) points!
Moreover, the FA article version (again, the one that was actually anonymous) had NO bullet points or numbered lists. Just prose and paragraphs (and section headings)
Fourth, let's move to substance. After all, all of the above is cosmetic and what really matters is the substance, right? Sure, but the substance doesn't make things better in this case.
Let's start by considering the substance of Kennan's telegram.

MOST of it is about the Soviet Union itself. Indeed, 4 of the telegram's 5 parts focus on the USSR.
The final part addresses how the US should respond given the telegram's description of the USSR and its policy.

The key point is that USSR typically backs down when confronted. Therefore, a show of strength & resolve should result in the US never having to actually use force
In the FA piece, Kennan called this approach "containment"
As for "The Longer Telegram"?

If you're playing buzz-phrase bingo, mark "Liberal International Order"
Oh, and OF COURSE the report has a reference to Sun Tzu. I'll admit this got a hard 🙄 from me
I will acknowledge that the Longer Telegram's goal of "keep China in the US order" is distinct from the Long Telegram's recommendation of "keep the Soviets outside the US order".
But this recommendation for US policy towards China is not new.

It's been said better (& more economically) elsewhere.

For example, see this @CarnegieEndow report by @MiraRappHooper, @Michael_S_Chase, Matake Kamiya, Shin Kawashima, & @Yuichi_Hosoya.

https://t.co/CqOnaq2Gp1
I'll admit that my assessment of this telegram/report/memo/doorstop is influenced by my own views on the future of US-China relations, which tend toward the "hawkish" side (as I wrote recently in @WarOnTheRocks)

https://t.co/zvonnh78IS
And I would of course defer to experts on China and Chinese foreign policy (though from what I've seen, they are also NOT IMPRESSED)

https://t.co/bdfGhpBFjL
But, overall, this report/telegram/whatever falls WAY short of it's aspiration of mimicking Kennan.

[END]

More from Paul Poast

Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct

Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...

...detailed twitter threads by
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Why are civil-mil scholars upset about Austin Lloyd's nomination as the 28th Secretary of Defense?

Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall

[THREAD]


In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.


There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef

https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah


Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947


Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
HISTORY
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Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.

That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even

This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.


That's a tall order!

Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.

The topic was of keen debate in the 1950s, with Henry Kissinger writing a series of pieces on the topic, such as this 1956 @ForeignAffairs

The academic discussion picked up in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

This included Robert Schelling's paper in the first issue of the Journal of Conflict
BIDEN
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What's the "value" offered by international relations scholarship?

What does it mean to think about world events "like an international relations scholar"?

Trump's order to withdrawal 🇺🇸 troops from 🇸🇴 offers a useful

This event could be viewed from a variety of angles, from the "micro-level" on up.

International Relations scholars/analysts can and do use each of the following angles, though not all are strictly speaking taking an "International Relations angle".

Let's explore the angles.

The "country-expert" angle entails discussing the event by laying out the situation within Somalia, providing details on key figures involved and perhaps how the conflict has disrupted Somalia's internal governance and

The "Military/Security analyst" angle involves outlining the details of what US troops presently do in Somalia and how they carry out their mission (including equipment, mission, and tactics).

See this @ChathamHouse report by

The "Area Studies/Regional Expert" angle involves discussing the decision as an event that will impact the Horn of Africa or East Africa more
TRUMP
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
GOVERNMENT

More from World

Fidato
Fidato
@tequieremos
BJP is planning to undertake 'Rath Yatra' in Delhi's riot-affected areas to seek donations for Ram Temple on Feb 1. In 1990, L.K. Advani had launched Rath Yatra from Somnath to Ayodhya.

This thread covers the large scale killing which took place during the Yatra and it's impact.

Between April 1989 and April 1990, 262 people died in Gujarat, mostly were Muslims. In October 1990, days after Advani’s yatra began, 41 were killed in Ahmedabad. The same month, 52 were killed in Jaipur, 20 in Jodhpur, 33 in Lucknow, over 100 in Delhi, 37 in Assam,

[1]


18 in Patna and 165 in Hyderabad. Also in October, a pogrom against Muslims in Bhagalpur, Bihar, saw 960 killed in which 900 were Muslims. In November, 31 were killed in Agra, again mostly Muslim and 13 in Indore. In Dec, 60 were killed in Karnataka and 134 in Hyderabad.

[2]

Many parts of India remained tense for long periods of time. Between April and May 1990, three riots in Kanpur killed 30; between May and November 1991 more than 50 were killed in Varanasi. In May 1991, 26 including 24 Muslims were killed in Vadodara.

[3]

In October 1992, 44 were killed in Sitamarhi. On 6 December 1992, immediately after the Babri Masjid was destroyed, pogroms against Muslims broke out in Surat where 200 died, of whom some 95 per cent were Muslims. In Bhopal in December, 143 were killed.

[4]
WORLD , BLOOD YATRA
Bayo Adeyinka
Bayo Adeyinka
@greaterbayo
The Next 20 Years

Just look around you in Nigeria, for example. 20 years ago, the ATM machine was a novelty. No bank issued debit cards- maybe just the foreign ones. There were no banking apps. You couldn't transfer funds the way we do now.

It took 7 days for your 'upcountry' cheques to clear- meaning that if someone pays you a cheque in Sokoto and you pay it in in Ibadan, you had to wait for 7 days to receive value. Later, it became 3 days.

I recall as a young banker, I used to go to the CBN Clearing House with a box that was locked by my supervisor and which could only be opened by the CBN Clearing Supervisor. I carried that box like it was my life.

I had cheques of other banks and a very huge calculator we called casting machine inside that 'portmanteau'.

Around this period 20 years ago, there was an influx of new generation banks that changed the landscape. Now, see how the banks have changed in 20 years. In just 20 years, the banking sector in Nigeria is the one of the most sophisticated in Africa. So much progress has been made
WORLD
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Defense News Nigeria
Defense News Nigeria
@DefenseNigeria
Can anyone fathom out how weapons like this make their way into the hands of terrorists in Nigeria?


These weapons are in boxes marked with serial numbers. Where there are serial numbers there are invoices or receipts. Which means it was imported. This is worrisome and raise questions about where the terror groups are sourcing their heavy weapons.

Weapons proliferation was once linked to the fall of Gadaffi. Libya was at one point the main source of arms to terror groups on the continent. For those unaware of the dynamics ill give a brief explanation:

When NATO bombed the crap out of the Gadaffi regime in 2011, Libya lost control of a large part of the stockpile it had amassed in over 40 years. The CIA made several calls for ground troops to be deployed to secure Gadaffi's amoury from falling into the hand of rebel groups.

The French kicked against sending ground troops, saying it will give the impression Libya was under a NATO occupation, Its just not worth the political capital to do so. The CIA made this call TWICE and TWICE it was shut down. The logic was securing those sites
WORLD
Arash Azizi
Arash Azizi
@arash_tehran
Iranian Reformist Front (Jebheye Eslathalabane Iran) was officially founded yesterday in Jamaran, Khomeini's historic house near Tehran.

The founding meeting elected Behzad Nabavi as an interim head since he is oldest.

And also 5 people as a committee to draft the IRF's by-laws


The five are:

1- Outspoken Tehran MP @mah_sadeghi
2- Faraj Komijani, politician with a base in an official teachers union
3- Ali Bagheri (low-key politician)
4- @MansooriAzar , noted reformist politician
5- Rouhani's ex-VP @mowlaverdi

Some more pictures of the meeting.

The next meeting of the group is on Wednesday and will be held virtually.

The top question remains whether and who (and how many candidates) to run for the coming #IranElections2021


The founding statement says the reformists will run a single candidate agreed by all reformist parties but only if elections are to be "free, legal, competitive, just and constitutional"... which is obviously not what's going to happen!

The founding statement also includes big demands like call for a referendum to revise the constitution. But as usual these big words aren't followed by any actions.
WORLD
LibertarianScottishTwatterUser\U0001f3f4\U000e0067\U000e0062\U000e0073\U000e0063\U000e0074\U000e007f\U0001f3f3\ufe0f\u200d\U0001f308
LibertarianScottishTwa...
@CountDankulaTV
An explanation of what is going on with the Salmond enquiry.

Alex Salmond was the leader of the SNP and was first minister of Scotland, but he stepped down from this position after the SNP failed to secure the Scottish Referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon took his place.

Nicola was basically Salmonds underling and he was her mentor. They were very close.

Everything after this point is all speculation/allegations, so take everything with a pinch of salt until the facts come out.

If the SNP ever allow them to come out.

A rift had been growing for many years between Salmond and Sturgeon as he felt she was not progressing enough towards an independent Scotland, probably because the party focuses mainly on woke bullshit and hate crime laws for memes.

Salmond hinted a return to the party.

Around about this time, with very convenient timing, Salmond got MeToo'd by several women within the SNP, this resulted in a massive police investigation, seriously huge, with the cops interviewing around 400 people.

Salmond was charged with several counts of sexual assault.

The case goes to trial, which results in Salmond being aquitted of all charges.

This is usually where such things would end, but it turns out this exposed everyone to a rabbit hole of alleged corruption within the SNP at it's highest levels.
WORLD

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KENYAN🇰🇪 HISTORY🇰🇪...
@historykenya101
Have you ever wondered why the sons and daughters of the colonial chiefs and guards who were collaborators live a good life while those of the MAU MAU fighters live in abject poverty?

***THREAD***


It should be known that the colonialists reached a point that they knew they had 2 leave Kenya since they couldn't handle the Mau Mau war & the world was moving toward accepting independent Africa.However,the colonialists devised an evil scheme that still eats Kenya upto this day

Under this scheme, the colonial state came up with a plan that saw the first crop of chiefly “big men” being empowered financially to take their children to schools and eventually have those children go to England for further studies...

...and eventually providing a ready-made socio-economic & political class whom state power could be entrusted in the post-colonial era.This explains why their children & grandchildren still hold majority of important positions in govt or in the private sector supported by state.

This also explains why children and grandchildren of these homeguards are always given preferential treatment when it comes to government appointments. Wewe na masomo yako you are always asking why you can never get a job in government...yet you're qualified..now you know.
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Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
TYPES OF SINS(PAAP) AS PER SKAND PURAN.

There are three types of Adharma- Sthool, Sukshma and Ati Sukshma. The group of Sins in the Sthul section carries you to Narak. These sins are committed through your thoughts, words and deeds.


It is of four types.

1)First is the sin committed by your mental state-
Thinking about woman other then your spouse.

A)Resolution to amass wealth from others.

B)Thinking ill about others.

C)Thinking of doing a forbidden or unworthy deed.

2)Second is the sin that you commit through your words :-

A)Talking irrelevant things.

B)Telling a lie.

C)Speaking harshly.

D)Talking ill about others.

3)Third type of sin is committed through your body actions-

A)Eating food not prescribed to you or forbidden.

B)Violence.

C)Eating fancier food.

D)Acquiring other's wealth.

So these twelve types of sins.

There are six types of sinners or Mahapatak

1)One not bowing his head in front of a temple.

2)Never praise Shiva.

3)People who behave untowardly way in front of Ishwar.

4)People who do not show respect to Ishwar, guru or one who are undignified.

5)One who do not behave properly.

6)One who is jealous of other bhakts.

Below is the list of sins which people may commit.

1)One who does not help a needy person or a person in pain,
RELIGION
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V.S.S
V.S.S
@Scion_of_Shekha
8 March 1679 - The date on which 300 saffron clad warriors gave their life to protect temples from mugal army. Thread➡️
Aurangzeb's huge army, which was adorned with artillery, elephant and horses, under the leadership of Commander Darab Khan had marched to punish the ruler of/1


Khandela Raja Bahadur Singh, who became a rebel due to the anti-Hindu policies of Aurangzeb, and to destroy the temples of Shekhawati. Bahadur Singh to compete with such a large army, vacated Khandela for the purpose of conducting guerilla warfare and went Kot Sakrai /2

located in the inaccessible hills of Sakrai. People of Khandela also vacated Khandela and hid in nearby villages.

But some Shekhawat warriors did not like this as they knew that the royal army would not leave a single temple located in Shekhawati unbroken./3

so soon the teams of self-sacrificing Dharma-protectors Shekhawat heroes started reaching Khandela to protect the Dev temples.

Sujan Singh Shekhawat, the young thakur of Chhapoli, was coming back from his wedding when he heard about the imperial army from Shepherds./4

झिरमीर झिरमिर मेहा बरसे,मोरां छतरी छाई |
कुल में है तो आव सुजाण, फोज देवरे आई ||

if you are born in your glorious clan, then come, the army have come to destroy temple. /5
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Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
IMPORTANCE, ADVANTAGES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BHAGWAT PURAN

It was Ved Vyas who edited the eighteen thousand shlokas of Bhagwat. This book destroys all your sins. It has twelve parts which are like kalpvraksh.

In the first skandh, the importance of Vedvyas


and characters of Pandavas are described by the dialogues between Suutji and Shaunakji. Then there is the story of Parikshit.
Next there is a Brahm Narad dialogue describing the avtaar of Bhagwan. Then the characteristics of Puraan are mentioned.

It also discusses the evolution of universe.( https://t.co/2aK1AZSC79 )

Next is the portrayal of Vidur and his dialogue with Maitreyji. Then there is a mention of Creation of universe by Brahma and the preachings of Sankhya by Kapil Muni.


In the next section we find the portrayal of Sati, Dhruv, Pruthu, and the story of ancient King, Bahirshi.
In the next section we find the character of King Priyavrat and his sons, different types of loks in this universe, and description of Narak. ( https://t.co/gmDTkLktKS )


In the sixth part we find the portrayal of Ajaamil ( https://t.co/LdVSSNspa2 ), Daksh and the birth of Marudgans( https://t.co/tecNidVckj )

In the seventh section we find the story of Prahlad and the description of Varnashram dharma. This section is based on karma vaasna.
RELIGION
Lu_lu\U0001f498
Lu_lu💘
@luciame16
Some thoughts on episode 53 of #Hercai

Love,that is not real,has no passion. Its fire turns into embers, it doesn’t not smell. The day, the night, the moon&year burn without sun, light, comfort&sleep.
Ömer Hayyam

#Reyyan #Miran #ReyMir #EbruŞahin #AkınAkınözü
#HercaiThoughts


1
PRAISE
The praise in this episode goes foremost to Ebru because she portrayed Reyyan so realistically like a woman who truly lost her unborn child. I was in awe and pain watching her along the episode, all her breakdowns and tears were so real.
#Hercai

2
Of course also Akın took his part and did his part masterfully, but he rightfully was the one who stood aside in this specific episode that needed to be about Reyyan’s pain and thus concentrated on Ebru.
#Hercai

3
And last but not least, if I say thank you to something that B gave us this year, then it’s to have Ali as our director. Also in this episode we saw the artistic eye behind every shot and I loved it.
#Hercai

4
OVERALL COMMENT
I don’t know who wrote ep. 52 but ep. 53 was going strong once more on symbols: roses, stones, fire and trees were incorporated and especially the ReyMir dialogues were written very well. I truly loved every ReyMir scene.
So let's get into it.
#Hercai
CULTURE