BC BIDEN
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After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.

That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even

 This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.
That's a tall order!

Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.
The topic was of keen debate in the 1950s, with Henry Kissinger writing a series of pieces on the topic, such as this 1956 @ForeignAffairs article

https://t.co/97fUw7sIj5
The academic discussion picked up in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

This included Robert Schelling's paper in the first issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution...

https://t.co/rdd1N24HhZ
....followed by his 1960 classic book...

https://t.co/igRLc3dDzx
....Glenn Snyder's 1961 book...

https://t.co/bNIM7QQOOV
...and Schelling again in his 1966 book

https://t.co/Pv49qc7Hmc
That last book offered a famous passage on US credibility to allies that first appeared three years earlier in the Virginia Quarterly Review.

https://t.co/R9KgFmwOVB
Here is the passage:
In other words, "tripwire forces" who die at the beginning of an enemy attack are critical to "reassuring" allies that America will indeed respond, perhaps even with nukes.
So key to "assurance" is stationing US forces on allied territory.

Does it work?
On the one hand, it's really hard to say.

The core difficulty with evaluating deterrence is "selection bias" and an inability to see the "counterfactual" (i.e. we only observe deterrence failures).

https://t.co/2uyzeGHQ15
On the other hand, much research has looked directly at "tripwire" forces to determine if they do indeed enhance deterrence.

What the research finds is not supportive.
@profmusgrave & @Steven_m_ward report in this @monkeycageblog piece that American's are actually not so keen on responding to the deaths of US troops with force: it depended much more on factors such as "likelihood of success"

https://t.co/7jblEd27n8
@mcfuhrmann & Todd Sechser in @AJPS_Editor show that placing US nukes on allied territory doesn't do much either to enhance deterrence.

https://t.co/EdweUhWHd0
Another problem with forward deployed tripwires is that they can reduce the willingness of local populations to fight for themselves...

https://t.co/2hBOdsNT3F
...though @carlammm, @flynnpolsci, @michaelallen, & Andrew Stravers report in @apsrjournal that forward deployed forces can create positive views of the US in host countries.

https://t.co/aHiQlpDWYj
So tripwires & forward deployment of forces might well be overrated as a means of "reassuring" an ally.

What else can be done?
For some states that don't yet have alliances, creating formal military cooperation agreements can have value. So also does flat out giving "aid" (read $$). See @ALanoszka, @YarhiMilo & Zack Cooper in @Journal_IS.

https://t.co/SGvUwGm8K4
The US might also consider renegotiating some of its alliance agreements to include more precise conditions for support. See @mattes_michaela in @IntOrgJournal

https://t.co/ECh84QJ0Rv
The US can continue to issue public "statements of support" to skittish allies, which @BrianDBlank explored recently in @ISQ_Jrnl

https://t.co/abYBpwkuBp
Even private statements of support have some merit too, as @YarhiMilo & Roseanne McManus explore in this @IntOrgJournal piece.

https://t.co/KRA2wgHN4P
The US can engage in military exercises (as Ralph Clem discussed in @TXNatSecReview)
https://t.co/od5Aczh4GT
But here's the thing: you can never give ENOUGH of such statements. Reassurance doesn't end: You have to be constantly visiting, stating publicly your commitment, & taking actions.
Reassurance is a process, not an objective. There is no one policy, like tripwires, that will achieve it.

[END]

More from Paul Poast

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Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct

Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...

...detailed twitter threads by
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Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Why are civil-mil scholars upset about Austin Lloyd's nomination as the 28th Secretary of Defense?

Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall

[THREAD]


In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.


There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef

https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah


Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947


Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
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Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
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What's the "value" offered by international relations scholarship?

What does it mean to think about world events "like an international relations scholar"?

Trump's order to withdrawal 🇺🇸 troops from 🇸🇴 offers a useful

This event could be viewed from a variety of angles, from the "micro-level" on up.

International Relations scholars/analysts can and do use each of the following angles, though not all are strictly speaking taking an "International Relations angle".

Let's explore the angles.

The "country-expert" angle entails discussing the event by laying out the situation within Somalia, providing details on key figures involved and perhaps how the conflict has disrupted Somalia's internal governance and

The "Military/Security analyst" angle involves outlining the details of what US troops presently do in Somalia and how they carry out their mission (including equipment, mission, and tactics).

See this @ChathamHouse report by

The "Area Studies/Regional Expert" angle involves discussing the decision as an event that will impact the Horn of Africa or East Africa more
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Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Let's talk about that "Longer Telegram" making the rounds...and why it's a

First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...


...a two page table of contents...


...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).

Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.

https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
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I just read the federal court’s decision to stop the 100-day deportation pause. The court granted a temporary restraining order blocking the Biden administration from implementing its 100-day deportation pause. The TRO applies for 14 days.

The court concluded that Texas is likely to win its argument that the pause 1) violates the Immigration & Nationality Act’s requirement that migrants ordered removed from the USA be removed within 90 days, and...

2) DHS acted arbitrarily & capriciously by suddenly shifting immigration policy from the prior administration.

As a preliminary matter, the court found that Texas has standing to sue because it provided evidence “of damage to its public fisc by causing it to increase its spending on public services to illegal aliens.”

In particular, the court pointed to state expenses on emergency Medicaid, the Family Violence Program, the state’s health insurance program for children, and educational costs.
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Dr. Alexander Hamilton | Alter Ego: AHAM
Dr. Alexander Hamilton...
@DrAlexHamilton
Clock ticking. 2 years until Republicans can take back both houses of Congress. The most important branch of government is not Congress or the presidency. It's the judiciary for they have life appointment. Mitch McConnell understood this

which is why he snatched that Supreme Court appointment from Obama & used Trump to pack the courts w/conservatives. Now Biden & Democrats must respond in kind & make good on a threat FDR made decades ago. PACK THE SUPREME COURT NOW while you have the chance. I say go to 19-

justices & then start term limits of 8 years after all 19 die. No 1 deserves a life appointment for anything. There is no accountability for people w/life appointments. They can do whateva the fuck they want & there is nothing U can do about it. Notice I said after all 19 die.

This would guarantee Biden is able 2 make a serious stamp on the country's future & possible make a complete judiciary break from white supremacy or the judiciary coddling of white supremacy. Never 4get Obama appointed judges who acquitted or let off cops who killed black people.

Congressmen 2 yrs, Presidents 4yrs, Senators 6 yrs & Supreme Court Justices 8 yrs would be a better formula for good government. Supreme Court justices & other federal judges are the true royalty in this country as they serve for life & the ability to remove them by impeachment-
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1. Wed. 20 Jan. Ron Giles: Guys this is the end of B*iden and the D*eep State.

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Biden was like my 5th pick in the primaries, he’s a moderate where we needed a progressive, and it was also so much work and so hard to get even him. I hope everyone can take a few minutes today and appreciate the hard fought victory. Winning even a little is hard, but we did it.

Rather than be discouraged by a moderate President, now is a time to count our wins and plan for more of them, recognizing what can be achieved when we talk to our neighbors, when Black and Brown and East Asian and Indigenous folks are activated within a movement.

I hope also that ppl understand that by fighting like hell in Georgia, folks there not only dethroned Mitch McConnell but also handed Bernie Sanders chair of the Senate Budget Committee, and while I know many are disappointed he is not president there is so much he can do there.

I truly believe that if we do not learn to celebrate victories we will not be able to win.

For so many people, the general election was life or death. For folks whose family members feared being kidnapped off the streets, the folks on federal death row, the communities hit hardest by COVID 19 ... Biden is not a savior but many more people will live. That’s a victory.
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Life Comes At You Fast Thread: Just two weeks into his presidency Biden's resolve is being tested by Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Isreal, China, and even Burma.
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Thread.

Recently, Harsimrat Kaur @HarsimratBadal_ claimed in parliament that Guru Tegh Bahadur protected the religion of Hindus despite of being a Non-Hindu. And Hindus owe a huge favor to others.

In this thread, I will show that Guru Tegh Bahadur was every inch a Hindu!

Let us begin with some contemporary sources.

Guru Tegh Bahadur visited the holy Triveni at Prayaga in 1662 CE.

This visit is documented in contemporary Bhat Vahi records.

Unlike those unpublished "bhat vahis", this one was published by Sikh historian Madanjit Kaur (1978)


This Bhat Vahi was signed by Guru Tegh Bahadur.

The content of the letter is particularly striking.

Guru Tegh Bahadur calls himself a devotee of Naina Devi.

Note. A devotee of Naina Devi. He does not mention Akal Purakh or Waheguru.


In the record, Guru Tegh Bahadur identifies himself as Sodhi Khatri by Varna and Kaushish by gotra.

This is exactly how the followers of orthodox Hinduism identify themselves to this date!


Further, Guru Tegh Bahadur appoints a brahmin purohit named Bhoj Raj.

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This practice of appointing purohits is just what is referred to by some people as "Brahmanical Hinduism"
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