BC BIDEN
Saved by @jacobhtml

After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.

That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even

 This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.
That's a tall order!

Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.
The topic was of keen debate in the 1950s, with Henry Kissinger writing a series of pieces on the topic, such as this 1956 @ForeignAffairs article

https://t.co/97fUw7sIj5
The academic discussion picked up in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

This included Robert Schelling's paper in the first issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution...

https://t.co/rdd1N24HhZ
....followed by his 1960 classic book...

https://t.co/igRLc3dDzx
....Glenn Snyder's 1961 book...

https://t.co/bNIM7QQOOV
...and Schelling again in his 1966 book

https://t.co/Pv49qc7Hmc
That last book offered a famous passage on US credibility to allies that first appeared three years earlier in the Virginia Quarterly Review.

https://t.co/R9KgFmwOVB
Here is the passage:
In other words, "tripwire forces" who die at the beginning of an enemy attack are critical to "reassuring" allies that America will indeed respond, perhaps even with nukes.
So key to "assurance" is stationing US forces on allied territory.

Does it work?
On the one hand, it's really hard to say.

The core difficulty with evaluating deterrence is "selection bias" and an inability to see the "counterfactual" (i.e. we only observe deterrence failures).

https://t.co/2uyzeGHQ15
On the other hand, much research has looked directly at "tripwire" forces to determine if they do indeed enhance deterrence.

What the research finds is not supportive.
@profmusgrave & @Steven_m_ward report in this @monkeycageblog piece that American's are actually not so keen on responding to the deaths of US troops with force: it depended much more on factors such as "likelihood of success"

https://t.co/7jblEd27n8
@mcfuhrmann & Todd Sechser in @AJPS_Editor show that placing US nukes on allied territory doesn't do much either to enhance deterrence.

https://t.co/EdweUhWHd0
Another problem with forward deployed tripwires is that they can reduce the willingness of local populations to fight for themselves...

https://t.co/2hBOdsNT3F
...though @carlammm, @flynnpolsci, @michaelallen, & Andrew Stravers report in @apsrjournal that forward deployed forces can create positive views of the US in host countries.

https://t.co/aHiQlpDWYj
So tripwires & forward deployment of forces might well be overrated as a means of "reassuring" an ally.

What else can be done?
For some states that don't yet have alliances, creating formal military cooperation agreements can have value. So also does flat out giving "aid" (read $$). See @ALanoszka, @YarhiMilo & Zack Cooper in @Journal_IS.

https://t.co/SGvUwGm8K4
The US might also consider renegotiating some of its alliance agreements to include more precise conditions for support. See @mattes_michaela in @IntOrgJournal

https://t.co/ECh84QJ0Rv
The US can continue to issue public "statements of support" to skittish allies, which @BrianDBlank explored recently in @ISQ_Jrnl

https://t.co/abYBpwkuBp
Even private statements of support have some merit too, as @YarhiMilo & Roseanne McManus explore in this @IntOrgJournal piece.

https://t.co/KRA2wgHN4P
The US can engage in military exercises (as Ralph Clem discussed in @TXNatSecReview)
https://t.co/od5Aczh4GT
But here's the thing: you can never give ENOUGH of such statements. Reassurance doesn't end: You have to be constantly visiting, stating publicly your commitment, & taking actions.
Reassurance is a process, not an objective. There is no one policy, like tripwires, that will achieve it.

[END]

More from Paul Poast

Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What's the "value" offered by international relations scholarship?

What does it mean to think about world events "like an international relations scholar"?

Trump's order to withdrawal 🇺🇸 troops from 🇸🇴 offers a useful

This event could be viewed from a variety of angles, from the "micro-level" on up.

International Relations scholars/analysts can and do use each of the following angles, though not all are strictly speaking taking an "International Relations angle".

Let's explore the angles.

The "country-expert" angle entails discussing the event by laying out the situation within Somalia, providing details on key figures involved and perhaps how the conflict has disrupted Somalia's internal governance and

The "Military/Security analyst" angle involves outlining the details of what US troops presently do in Somalia and how they carry out their mission (including equipment, mission, and tactics).

See this @ChathamHouse report by

The "Area Studies/Regional Expert" angle involves discussing the decision as an event that will impact the Horn of Africa or East Africa more
TRUMP
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
GOVERNMENT
Advertisement
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct

Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...

...detailed twitter threads by
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Let's talk about that "Longer Telegram" making the rounds...and why it's a

First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...


...a two page table of contents...


...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).

Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.

https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
WORLD
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Why are civil-mil scholars upset about Austin Lloyd's nomination as the 28th Secretary of Defense?

Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall

[THREAD]


In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.


There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef

https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah


Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947


Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
HISTORY

More from Biden

\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8I Support Our Military & Law Enforcement\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇺🇸I Support Our Milita...
@TheWiseOwl_AZ
26. Continued from previous Tweet...

This is why the [B]iden swearing-in on the 20th does NOT make him president. The mighty Alliance and the Trump team is doing these actions legally and for all to see, with official documents. Know that the illuminati took the original...
BIDEN
Ali Velshi
Ali Velshi
@AliVelshi
1/11
On Thursday the Biden administration, along with congressional Democrats, unveiled a new immigration bill creating a path of 8 years to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the country. #velshi

2/11
The bill also provides an expedited path for DREAMERS - the undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children by their parents. #velshi

3/11
The bill’s approval has a tough road ahead given razor thin Democratic majorities in both houses, but while there’s little bipartisan support for immigration reform in Washington, DC, there’s broad support for what it aims to do among Americans. #velshi

4/11
A new Vox and Data for Progress poll found a majority of likely voters and an overwhelming proportion of Democrats “strongly” or “somewhat” support offering a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. #velshi

5/11
When asked specifically about DREAMERS, support was even greater with 72% of all likely voters & 87% of Democrats in favor. This poll is consistent with a PEW survey from last year. 72% of Americans couldn't agree that today is Saturday, so it’s is a big deal. #velshi
BIDEN
Advertisement
\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8I Support Our Military & Law Enforcement\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇺🇸I Support Our Milita...
@TheWiseOwl_AZ
1. Trust The Plan, Q

On Thurs. 14 Jan. right before B*iden’s Inauguration and due to foreign interference in the 2020 Presidential Election, Trump instigated the Insurgency Act, declared Martial Law and deferred his power to the US Military. Since then the US has been...
BIDEN
Naailah
Naailah
@Naailah69260181
Did you miss the Inauguration of the 46th President of the United States,Joe Biden?This Thread is the perfect synopsis for everything you need to know!

Donald Trump left the White House Wednesday morning. For the first time in 150 years the sitting president didn’t attend the swearing-in of his successor.


Kamala Harris, the first woman and person of color to hold the office of vice president was sworn in by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the first Latina member of the Supreme Court.


Chief Justice John Roberts later administered the presidential oath to Biden as Jill Biden held the bible and as his children, Hunter Biden and Ashley Biden, stood by.


President Joe Biden gave his Inaugural address. Check out the full transcript below.
BIDEN
Dr. Alexander Hamilton | Alter Ego: AHAM
Dr. Alexander Hamilton...
@DrAlexHamilton
Clock ticking. 2 years until Republicans can take back both houses of Congress. The most important branch of government is not Congress or the presidency. It's the judiciary for they have life appointment. Mitch McConnell understood this

which is why he snatched that Supreme Court appointment from Obama & used Trump to pack the courts w/conservatives. Now Biden & Democrats must respond in kind & make good on a threat FDR made decades ago. PACK THE SUPREME COURT NOW while you have the chance. I say go to 19-

justices & then start term limits of 8 years after all 19 die. No 1 deserves a life appointment for anything. There is no accountability for people w/life appointments. They can do whateva the fuck they want & there is nothing U can do about it. Notice I said after all 19 die.

This would guarantee Biden is able 2 make a serious stamp on the country's future & possible make a complete judiciary break from white supremacy or the judiciary coddling of white supremacy. Never 4get Obama appointed judges who acquitted or let off cops who killed black people.

Congressmen 2 yrs, Presidents 4yrs, Senators 6 yrs & Supreme Court Justices 8 yrs would be a better formula for good government. Supreme Court justices & other federal judges are the true royalty in this country as they serve for life & the ability to remove them by impeachment-
BIDEN

You May Also Like

Ankur Patel
Ankur Patel
@AnkurPatel59
FEW USEFUL CHARTINK SCANNERS :

This Scanner will be More than Enough for any Swing / Positional Trader to find Good Stocks.

Few Important Chart ink Scanners which can help you to find Setups and boost up your Trading Account : 🧵

Do Retweet If you If it Useful

1. Momentum Stocks

This Scanner can be helpful for Short term Swing Trades . you can easily find Stocks which are in Momentum.

Stocks which are up by 20 % in 5 Days
Stocks which are up by 30 % in 30 Days
Stocks which are up by 30 % in 30 Days

2. Volume Spike

We always Look for Price and Volume Confirmation for Breakout Trading. This scanner will help you to find the Stocks Which has given a move with Good Volume . You can keep this Stock in Radar and catch the Next move in them :

3 . Reversal Scan

Stocks which are Down by 20 % + in 5 days

When Market Corrects for sometime , You can find Stocks where selling is Exhausted and they can make a Good Reversal move .

4. Reversal Scan - Stock Down continues 5 days .

If you Know the Concept of 3-5 Days move . you might catch few stocks from this scanner. Always try and Pick stocks which are in strong momentum , you have more Chances of Getting Right in Reversal Trade.
TRADING SCREENERS , TRADING SCREENER , ALL
Vibhu Vashisth \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Vibhu Vashisth 🇮🇳...
@VIBHU_Tweet
MAHARAJA CHHATRASAL BUNDELA was the great Bundela King who revolted against the Mughal ruler Aurangzeb.
Chhatrasal Bundela was born in year 1649 CE in Maur Hill of Bundela region to Champat Rai and Lal Kunwar. He was the descendent of Rudra Pratap of Orchha.


His ancesters were the vassals of Mughal Emperor. He drew inspiration from his father and revolted against the alien rule of Mughals. He was just 12 yrs old when his parents died in fight against the Mughal Army of Aurangzeb in 1661.

When his beloved father attained martyrdom in the year 166, the young Chatrasal was present in the last battle of his father against the Mughal and from these valiant campaigns,..

..he gathered the courage to free Bundelkhand from Aurangzeb’s rule.
He joined the Mughals initially, and was recommended by the Rajput King Mirza Jai Singh to be recruited in the Mughal Army in order to support their Deccan Campaigns.


But serving the alien rule of Mughals which brought chaos and misery to Bundelkhand was unacceptable for Chatrasal Bundela and his father’s incessant struggle against the Mughals kept the fire of independent Bundelkhand alive in his heart.
ALL
Advertisement
Engineer Who
Engineer Who
@Engr_Who
A long but must read thread. Udaybhan Rathore and myth making in Maratha history: An analysis. This is the thread on Udaybhan Rathore, who he was and how over the time period, his life was portrayed in maratha chronicles and pseudo history. (1/n)

Udaybhan rathore was the head of Bhinai thikana (84 villages) in Ajmer. He was the direct descendant of the famous Rao Chandrasen, Raja of Marwar (4th generation) who resisted Akbar all his life and never made any alliance with mughals like Maharana Pratap. (2/n)

Later in 1783, Maharaja of Jodhpur gave title of Raja to Bhinai family for their military service. Bhinai family and their direct descendant Raja Sh Mayuraj Singh still lives in Ajmer. Anyway coming to Udaybhan Rathore and story of Tanaji. (3/n)

Jai Singh's march on Shivaji and treaty of Purandar (1665) is a well known episode to repeat here. After getting the hill forts from Shivaji under the treaty, Jai Singh didn't have enough man-power to man every one of the small forts because of his next (4/n)

campaign against Bijapur. Jai Singh personally took over a couple of important forts like Kondhana (Sinhgarh), Purandar etc. Others were given to some mughals or their fortification walls destroyed. Jai Singh died in 1667 near Burhanpur while enroute to the north. (5/n)
INDIA
Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
@Thomas_Binder
1/12

RT-PCR corona (test) scam

Symptomatic people are tested for one and only one respiratory virus. This means that other acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


2/12

It is tested exquisitely with a hypersensitive non-specific RT-PCR test / Ct >35 (>30 is nonsense, >35 is madness), without considering Ct and clinical context. This means that more acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


3/12

The Drosten RT-PCR test is fabricated in a way that each country and laboratory perform it differently at too high Ct and that the high rate of false positives increases massively due to cross-reaction with other (corona) viruses in the "flu


4/12

Even asymptomatic, previously called healthy, people are tested (en masse) in this way, although there is no epidemiologically relevant asymptomatic transmission. This means that even healthy people are declared as COVID


5/12

Deaths within 28 days after a positive RT-PCR test from whatever cause are designated as deaths WITH COVID. This means that other causes of death are reclassified as
CATEGORY C19
Mystery Grove Publishing Co.
Mystery Grove Publishi...
@MysteryGrove
By popular demand, here is the official Mystery Grove Film Recommendations list. Watch all of these in order if you want to truly understand the world we live in today.
CULTURE