BC BIDEN
Saved by @jacobhtml

After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.

That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even

 This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.
That's a tall order!

Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.
The topic was of keen debate in the 1950s, with Henry Kissinger writing a series of pieces on the topic, such as this 1956 @ForeignAffairs article

https://t.co/97fUw7sIj5
The academic discussion picked up in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

This included Robert Schelling's paper in the first issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution...

https://t.co/rdd1N24HhZ
....followed by his 1960 classic book...

https://t.co/igRLc3dDzx
....Glenn Snyder's 1961 book...

https://t.co/bNIM7QQOOV
...and Schelling again in his 1966 book

https://t.co/Pv49qc7Hmc
That last book offered a famous passage on US credibility to allies that first appeared three years earlier in the Virginia Quarterly Review.

https://t.co/R9KgFmwOVB
Here is the passage:
In other words, "tripwire forces" who die at the beginning of an enemy attack are critical to "reassuring" allies that America will indeed respond, perhaps even with nukes.
So key to "assurance" is stationing US forces on allied territory.

Does it work?
On the one hand, it's really hard to say.

The core difficulty with evaluating deterrence is "selection bias" and an inability to see the "counterfactual" (i.e. we only observe deterrence failures).

https://t.co/2uyzeGHQ15
On the other hand, much research has looked directly at "tripwire" forces to determine if they do indeed enhance deterrence.

What the research finds is not supportive.
@profmusgrave & @Steven_m_ward report in this @monkeycageblog piece that American's are actually not so keen on responding to the deaths of US troops with force: it depended much more on factors such as "likelihood of success"

https://t.co/7jblEd27n8
@mcfuhrmann & Todd Sechser in @AJPS_Editor show that placing US nukes on allied territory doesn't do much either to enhance deterrence.

https://t.co/EdweUhWHd0
Another problem with forward deployed tripwires is that they can reduce the willingness of local populations to fight for themselves...

https://t.co/2hBOdsNT3F
...though @carlammm, @flynnpolsci, @michaelallen, & Andrew Stravers report in @apsrjournal that forward deployed forces can create positive views of the US in host countries.

https://t.co/aHiQlpDWYj
So tripwires & forward deployment of forces might well be overrated as a means of "reassuring" an ally.

What else can be done?
For some states that don't yet have alliances, creating formal military cooperation agreements can have value. So also does flat out giving "aid" (read $$). See @ALanoszka, @YarhiMilo & Zack Cooper in @Journal_IS.

https://t.co/SGvUwGm8K4
The US might also consider renegotiating some of its alliance agreements to include more precise conditions for support. See @mattes_michaela in @IntOrgJournal

https://t.co/ECh84QJ0Rv
The US can continue to issue public "statements of support" to skittish allies, which @BrianDBlank explored recently in @ISQ_Jrnl

https://t.co/abYBpwkuBp
Even private statements of support have some merit too, as @YarhiMilo & Roseanne McManus explore in this @IntOrgJournal piece.

https://t.co/KRA2wgHN4P
The US can engage in military exercises (as Ralph Clem discussed in @TXNatSecReview)
https://t.co/od5Aczh4GT
But here's the thing: you can never give ENOUGH of such statements. Reassurance doesn't end: You have to be constantly visiting, stating publicly your commitment, & taking actions.
Reassurance is a process, not an objective. There is no one policy, like tripwires, that will achieve it.

[END]

More from Paul Poast

Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Let's talk about that "Longer Telegram" making the rounds...and why it's a

First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...


...a two page table of contents...


...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).

Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.

https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
WORLD
Advertisement
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct

Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...

...detailed twitter threads by
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What's the "value" offered by international relations scholarship?

What does it mean to think about world events "like an international relations scholar"?

Trump's order to withdrawal 🇺🇸 troops from 🇸🇴 offers a useful

This event could be viewed from a variety of angles, from the "micro-level" on up.

International Relations scholars/analysts can and do use each of the following angles, though not all are strictly speaking taking an "International Relations angle".

Let's explore the angles.

The "country-expert" angle entails discussing the event by laying out the situation within Somalia, providing details on key figures involved and perhaps how the conflict has disrupted Somalia's internal governance and

The "Military/Security analyst" angle involves outlining the details of what US troops presently do in Somalia and how they carry out their mission (including equipment, mission, and tactics).

See this @ChathamHouse report by

The "Area Studies/Regional Expert" angle involves discussing the decision as an event that will impact the Horn of Africa or East Africa more
TRUMP
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Why are civil-mil scholars upset about Austin Lloyd's nomination as the 28th Secretary of Defense?

Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall

[THREAD]


In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.


There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef

https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah


Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947


Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
HISTORY

More from Biden

Thomas Wood \U0001f30a
Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
The most important remaining nomination for Biden to announce is the most important one he will ever make: for Attorney General of the United States. 1/8

If Biden nominates Sally Yates, it will be a pretty clear signal that the D voices who believe that Trump and his enablers must be held accountable for a uniquely lawless presidency have carried the day. 2/8

Since I’m hoping Biden will nominate Yates, it is encouraging that Biden has waited so long to announce his selection for AG. (It is going to come now after the Electoral College formalizes Biden’s election on Monday.) 3/8

(Trump’s outrageous attempt to overturn the 2020 election--“overturn” being a term Trump actually used in a tweet--has probably made it more likely that Biden will take a hard line on all this. He certainly should.) 4/8

If Yates is nominated, the writing will be clearly on the wall for Trump, who in its wake would probably make a deal with Pence involving his resignation some time before inauguration day and a pardon for all his federal crimes. 5/8
BIDEN
\U0001f478\U0001f3fb
👸🏻
@LilMsOpinion
Why is anyone surprised #BidenLied ?

Had the media actually done their damn jobs, you would know Joe Biden makes Donald Trump look like Honest Abe.

Don’t believe me? Let’s stroll... 👇🏽

Joe Biden claimed he was shot at in Iraq (he wasn’t)

#BidenLied about his wife and daughter being killed by a drunk driver for political purposes, several

#BidenLied about confronting Slobodan

Joe Biden claimed to be against the three strike rule his racist legislation enacted (he wasn’t #BidenLied

“I went to law school on a full academic scholarship...and ended up in the top half of my class." (Total bullshit #BidenLied
BIDEN
Advertisement
Darren Samuelsohn
Darren Samuelsohn
@dsamuelsohn
NEW: The Biden administration arrived in January to find an exodus of foreign service officers at State, climate scientists gone at Interior and EPA, and workplace safety inspectors at Labor dropped under Trump. @rbravender reports on the path ahead. ($)

Biden is scrambling to make government work cool again, hoping to staff up w/ young idealists who buy into the "build back better" slogan. His admin is looking at ways to rehire some of the many scientists, retired officials, & other experts who hit quit over the last 4 years.

It won't be easy. Some agency veterans who left have moved on from the US government & say they're not interested in coming back. Fights over where to prioritize federal $ will likely mean Biden & Congress have tough choices about which of their pet issues they want to pay for.

And even some government employees who are relieved by the Democratic president's rhetoric about empowering the federal workforce are worried about how another administration after Biden might approach workers.

The gov jobs portal is packed with openings, like a Kansas-based EPA criminal investigator, a diversity & inclusion specialist for the Peace Corps, & a guide at Kings Canyon National Park. It's critical that these jobs are filled across the bureaucracy, per former US officials.
BIDEN
Dan Lashof
Dan Lashof
@Dlashof
On “Climate Day”, President Biden is making good on his commitment to tackle climate change by signing a suite of executive orders directing all agencies of the federal government to prioritize #climateaction at home and abroad.
Here are the major actions [Thread]

International Leadership. Biden directs the U.S. to begin the process of developing the country’s emission reduction target (NDC), a climate finance plan and hosting the international climate summit on April 22 to push major emitters to ramp up climate ambition.

Foreign Policy and National Security. Climate change must now be prioritized as an essential element when considering U.S. foreign policy, national security decisions and other international work.

Federal Lands & Waters. Biden commits to #30by30–conserving 30% of our lands and waters by 2030. Biden also pauses new oil and gas leases on public lands and offshore waters, and directs a review of existing leasing/permitting practices.

Federal Agencies. Leaders from 21 federal agencies and departments will make up the National Climate Task Force to enable a whole-of-government approach to combat the #climatecrisis.
BIDEN
Ali Velshi
Ali Velshi
@AliVelshi
1/11
On Thursday the Biden administration, along with congressional Democrats, unveiled a new immigration bill creating a path of 8 years to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the country. #velshi

2/11
The bill also provides an expedited path for DREAMERS - the undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children by their parents. #velshi

3/11
The bill’s approval has a tough road ahead given razor thin Democratic majorities in both houses, but while there’s little bipartisan support for immigration reform in Washington, DC, there’s broad support for what it aims to do among Americans. #velshi

4/11
A new Vox and Data for Progress poll found a majority of likely voters and an overwhelming proportion of Democrats “strongly” or “somewhat” support offering a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. #velshi

5/11
When asked specifically about DREAMERS, support was even greater with 72% of all likely voters & 87% of Democrats in favor. This poll is consistent with a PEW survey from last year. 72% of Americans couldn't agree that today is Saturday, so it’s is a big deal. #velshi
BIDEN

You May Also Like

Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!


3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W


4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from
ALL
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Sri Parasurameswara Swamy Mandir, Gudimallam, Andhrapradesh

Gudimallam is a small village located in Chittoor district. It is seven miles away from Tirupati. This small village came to significance,due to it's very beautiful Shiva Mandir with history of thousands of years. 1/n


The main importance of the mandir lies in the Linga which is housed in the Garbhagriha of the temple & considered as the only one of such type. It is the earliest Linga discovered so far and it has been assigned to the 3rd century BCE.(Satavahana period) 2/n
ALL
Advertisement
Vibhu Vashisth \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Vibhu Vashisth 🇮🇳...
@VIBHU_Tweet
VEDIC COSMOLOGY, also known as Hindu Cosmology, and cosmography are both interesting and inspiring. Today’s “modern” Vedic texts originated around 3,000 B.C.E. This is the oldest scientific and the oldest religious doctrine known to the human race.


Our current astronomy of the solar system and universe has its roots in Vedic knowledge. It only shows that man had advanced knowledge of astronomy way before our current civilization came into existence.
We are here to talk about the Vedic version of the planetary system,

starting at the top from the eternal planets to the temporary planetary system within innumerable universes in the material world.

Talking about “cosmic manifestation,” we need to incorporate both spiritual and material existence.


The spiritual realm of the planets is everlasting, and this will forever be beyond what the material universe can encapsulate. The spiritual realm belongs to the “super dimensional” or “anti-material” dimension. It means that it is beyond what we can perceive,


beyond time as a linear dimension, and the space of our vision and perception.

There are innumerable planets, all indestructible and forever lasting. That is what the Vedas say about the spiritual planets. Our concentration here is more towards the material side of things.
ALL
Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Sri Mridanga Saileswari Temple Muzhakkunnu, Kannur KERALA

The temple is established by Parasurama and it is one among 108 Durga temples.
Devi will answer all the prayers of her devotees who pray to her with utmost devotion lighting the ghee deepam.


It is the family diety of Kerala Varma Pazhassi Raja.
Devi is present in three forms Kali, Saraswati and Lakshmi.

Legend...👇
Once a Mridungam ( musical instrument) shaped rock fell from heaven here.
@SriramKannan77


Devi originated in the form of Mridangam and Parasurama captivated the essence of Devi into a Vigraham. Vigraham is made of Panchaloham.
Kathakali, an art form of Kerala originated here.


Temple Vigraham was stolen 3-4 times, but because of power of Devi all the attempts were failure. Police records says that Whenever the thieves try to steal, they lose their senses, and they will be in a confused state. So they will abandon the idol.
🕉
ALL
Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Cherthala Karthyayani Kshetram
#Alappuzha, Kerala
#KeralaTemples 🚩

Cherthala Karthyayani Temple Prathishta was done by Vilwamangalam Swamy. Chertala Pooram is very famous. Devi is Mangalya Dayini here removes obstacles relating to marriages. Sthala Puranam says that, once 👇


Vilwamangalam Swamiyar was passing this area after Prathista of Padmananbhaswamy Temple, he felt Devi chaitanyam and recognized as Karthyayani Devi. But Devi seeing Vilwamangalam went inside the pond. Swamy searched for Devi continously for 6 days and on 7th day Vilwamangalam


got hold of Devi's hair. Thus only Devi's head is Prathishta here. Devotees do Kozhi parathal ( offering cock) here as an offering to Karthyayani Devi.

Karthyayaniamme Sharanam
🙏🕉🙏
ALL