By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?
Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.
Why? Let's turn to the data.
[THREAD]
Democracies do not go to war with each other. There are a lot of empirical data to support that theory. I summarize that literature here. https://t.co/SQLk9J9rZ8 https://t.co/tLlSyisEIU
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) December 12, 2020
By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"
Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
https://t.co/YZpsuRIcX0
As shown below, there are simply no dots on the left-hand side.
But the work didn't stop (perhaps BECAUSE Levy made that claim)
The first, with a very descriptive title, was published in @II_journal in 1992
https://t.co/lbHubdHBSa
MIDs include wars and "lower levels of conflict", like 👇
https://t.co/robuJHtp9X
This incident is why the label "Militarized Interstate Dispute" is useful -- no fatalities, one day event, and no actual fighting.
— Paul Poast (@ProfPaulPoast) October 3, 2018
But if fighting had taken place? If fatalities had occurred? If it lasted for multiple days? Then it's something else -- #ModernMajorPowerWar? https://t.co/dGTh0lv2A6
This allowed Maoz and Russet to really find out how "pacific" democracies are to one another.
So conflict is less (see neg coefficient in the logit model from their 1993 paper), but not zero.
https://t.co/sHtp70JAUX
These omitted variables included...
https://t.co/KURONXwhZW
That's not a trivial matter.
In most of the above studies, a pair of countries are considering "jointly democratic" if both have Polity scores >= 6.
Human coding (think of small armies of graduate student RAs)!
https://t.co/d6Ztq2zis5
https://t.co/bgeYuzJrNl
\U0001f6a8The problems with democracy coding and bias \U0001f6a8 Political scientists among you will know about the Polity IV score. This has been until recently the preferred measure of democracy for many scholars. So why, you may ask, does it not like democracy in US or UK? 1/n
— Ben W. Ansell (@benwansell) February 17, 2020
https://t.co/y6Ygv1Ri2N
https://t.co/4Uy8pJ7mz0
Recent scholarship has called attention to how Western-centric biases shape our understandings of war --- including which belligerents & wars matter for our studies.
— Jason Lyall (@jaylyall_red5) November 20, 2020
A quick thread, drawing on data from my book, Divided Armies. 1/10
https://t.co/5gLD0yA9bI
More from Paul Poast
First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...
...a two page table of contents...
...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).
Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.
https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.
[THREAD]
A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.
We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.
First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct
Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.
These include...
...detailed twitter threads by
Let me try this again\u2026 What would it look like if this were a coup (failed, in progress, or otherwise)? 1/n
— Kristen Harkness (@HarknessKristen) January 7, 2021
Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall
[THREAD]
In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.
There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef
https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah
Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947
Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
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As a dean of a major academic institution, I could not have said this. But I will now. Requiring such statements in applications for appointments and promotions is an affront to academic freedom, and diminishes the true value of diversity, equity of inclusion by trivializing it. https://t.co/NfcI5VLODi
— Jeffrey Flier (@jflier) November 10, 2018
We know that elite institutions like the one Flier was in (partial) charge of rely on irrelevant status markers like private school education, whiteness, legacy, and ability to charm an old white guy at an interview.
Harvard's discriminatory policies are becoming increasingly well known, across the political spectrum (see, e.g., the recent lawsuit on discrimination against East Asian applications.)
It's refreshing to hear a senior administrator admits to personally opposing policies that attempt to remedy these basic flaws. These are flaws that harm his institution's ability to do cutting-edge research and to serve the public.
Harvard is being eclipsed by institutions that have different ideas about how to run a 21st Century institution. Stanford, for one; the UC system; the "public Ivys".
I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!
Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!
Tik Tok pic.twitter.com/8X3oMxvncP
— Scotty Mar10 (@Allenma15086871) December 29, 2020
Has this man been concealing his true identity?
Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?
Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!
Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?
Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??
Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?
Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.
#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.