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1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, let's talk snowballs.

Snowballs are super fun! And they can teach us so much about life, about things that grow over time, their rates of growth, compounding, etc.


2/

Snowballs are often used as a metaphor for compounding.

A snowball starts small at the top of a hill. As it rolls downhill, it picks up speed and grows in size. This is like money compounding over time.

For example, here's Buffett's famous "snowball quote":


3/

There's even a famous book about Buffett with "snowball" in the title.

The book's theme is similar to the quote above: the process of compounding is like a snowball that grows over time as it rolls downhill.

Link:
https://t.co/L3opOrdeoZ


4/

Clearly, snowballs rolling downhill are worthy objects of study.

So let's dive into their physics!

Luckily for us, in 2019, Scott Rubin published a paper analyzing such snowballs -- in a journal called "The Physics Teacher".

All we need to do is understand this paper.


5/

We begin by identifying 2 kinds of quantities in our "snowball system":

1. "Parameters" that don't change with time (eg, the hill's angle of incline), and

2. "State Variables" that *do* change with time (eg, the snowball's radius and velocity).
I'm in therapy, which I've already overshared, and it's great. I recommend it highly. Today I want to share an insight that has helped me so much, and maybe it can help you too?


I used to feel apart from things, alienated. I couldn't enjoy beauty or family. I live in a staggeringly beautiful place, but I couldn't enjoy the view or lake or mountains, because I know climate change is destroying glaciers & ecosystems. 2/
https://t.co/rvq2eRiXgC


Every day I had a hard time with my kid, putting on a brave face to get him to school and back, knowing every moment that I am somehow not doing enough to preserve his future. That he & his friends are being harmed, every day more, by our industrial and economic systems. 3/

What my therapist helped me understand is that I am right to have those feelings - it would be insane not to, given what I know about the state & direction of the world. But she also helped me understand that I was harming myself by putting myself apart from & above my world. 4/

In my previous worldview, I was apart from, in opposition to, my environment and my society. I saw myself as a lonely witness of devastation, howling helplessly and with little effect to try to change a disastrous trajectory, resentful of the ignorance & inaction of others. 5/
The Nashville Operation - A Battle in the War

A thread exploring the Nashville bombing in the context of the 2020 Digital War (via SolarWinds) against the United States perpetrated by our enemies, likely China, Iran and/or Russia.


SolarWinds Hack

A digital "Pearl Harbor" moment for the United States, whoever was responsible had access to the keys to the kingdom for months during 2020, including sensitive military infrastructure. This is war!

SunGard + SolarWinds

SolarWinds software company is owned by same company that owns SunGard, which essentially provides data center services. A secure place to host internet servers with redundant power and "big pipe" data connections.

https://t.co/U3P3SrrkM1


SunGard Data Center

In Nashville, around the corner from their "big pipe" connection, AT&T. Like any data center, highly secure. Only authorized personnel can enter, and even fewer can access the actual server rooms. Backup generators are available in case of power failure.


If the SunGard hardware was being used to "host" critical command and control software related to SolarWinds, the US powers would be very interested in gaining special access keys that are stored on the hard-drives of specific servers.
As bloody as the world wars were, they weren’t particularly bad by historical standards. The 17th century was uniquely bad for 2nd millennium AD, with Little Ice Age & glut of specie leading to state collapses & population decline across Eurasia.

Falls of Rome & Tang in 1st millennium were worse, but at least they were recorded. Records of the even worse Bronze Age Collapse around 1200 BC barely survived for some areas, & for other regions all we have are archaeological indications that they regressed to the stone age.


Further back in the 3rd millennium BC, an even worse series of catastrophes occurred - the Indo-European invasions - ending the Megalith Builder Civilization with their urban settlements & leaving much of Europe depopulated for 600 years.


By the time of their destruction the Megalith Builders themselves had been in a centuries long decline from their Golden Age in late 5th & early 4th millennium. Their great realms had likely disintegrated around 3500 BC into smaller chiefdoms engaging in endemic warfare.


The Megalith Builders themselves were the result of WHG chieftains overthrowing the decadent EEF chiefs like those of the Linear Ceramics around 4400 BC & subjugating an 1800 year old neolithic civilization. Possibly related to spread of copper-working.
Quick intro to more analysis later - since Freeports are mentioned in this article worth making the point that it seems to me under the UK-EU deal that if the UK provides subsidies for them, or relaxes labour or environmental rules in them, the EU can take retaliatory action.


There has never been level playing field content like this in a trade deal. The idea it is any kind of UK win, when the UK's opening position was no enforceable commitments whatsoever, is ridiculous.


The EU can take retaliatory action against the UK if we weaken labour standards, weaken pretty firm climate change targets, unfairly subsidise, or just in general seem to be out of line. There are processes to follow, but it looks like the PM did it again...


Final one for now. Quite how Labour gets itself in such a fuss about whether to support a deal with the strongest labour and environment commitments ever seen in a trade deal is a sign of just how far it hasn't moved on from leaving.

PS well... (sorry DAG). It certainly didn't have a good effect. And I think if we had settled LPF issues with the EU much earlier there is a good chance the conditions would have been far less stringent. By making an issue, we made it much worse.