BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

What's in the EU-UK Brexit deal on energy?

It may be Boxing day, but I've had a quick look

 Title VIII: Energy is the key section (page 156 onwards)

▶️ Standard stuff on commitment to competition, unbundling and customer choice

▶️ UK Capacity Market no longer needs to try to integrate overseas Capacity providers & vice versa

(Article ENER.6, Clause 3, page. 160)

2/
▶️ Existing "exemptions" for selected interconnectors will continue to apply.

This means that these interconnectors can continue to sell capacity rights ahead of time, rather than all through close to real-time markets.

(Article ENER.11, page 162)

3/
▶️ No network charges on individual interconnector transactions (as now)

▶️ But, UK cannot participate in EU procedures for capacity allocation and congestion management (more on this later)

(Article ENER.13, page 163)

4/
Gas trading: looks like the UK stays in the existing PRISMA gas trading platform.

Not my specialist area, but is this because PRISMA isn't an EU institution (unlike electricity market coupling)?

https://t.co/5GQJtZDpTa

(Article ENER. 15, page 164)

5/
▶️ Network development: Parties to cooperate, including on interconnectors, but not much detail.
▶️ Security of Supply: Parties to cooperate, again not much detail. Can't see any references to a solidarity principle.

(Articles ENER. 16 and ENER. 17, page 165)

6/
Cooperation between TSOs & Regulators:
- UK TSOs (i.e. National Grid) to cooperate with EU TSOs through cooperation with ENTSO-E and ENTSOG but not membership
- UK regulator (@Ofgem) to cooperate with EU regulators through ACER. Again, no UK membership

(Articles ENER.19+20)

7/
New cooperation forum between UK and EU on offshore renewable energy.

Looks like UK no longer a member of North Seas Energy Cooperation, so a new forum is needed.

(Article ENER 23, page 169-170).

See summary of our report on Future of North Sea :
https://t.co/Qgh8b2p0yZ

8/
Final provisions, incl. termination (!)

Title on Energy ceases on 30 June 2026. Although can be extended to 31 March 2027 & again to 31 March 2028.

Seems linked to general termination provisions of the deal, including a reference to 🐟🐟 (Article FISH.17)

(ENER 33, p.172)

9/
Onto Annexes. Only Annex ENER-4 is interesting. Covers day-ahead market coupling over interconnectors.

Market coupling ceases on 1 Jan 2021. Will be replaced by April'22 with "Multi-region loose volume coupling"

New term for many https://t.co/oSVDDiWFw9

Annex ENER-4 p.784

10/
If I understand it correctly, new system will produce net flows on the interconnectors, rather than prices.

Creates a risk that interconnectors flow the "wrong way" (i.e. from high prices to low prices).

Algorithm is separate to EU day-ahead market coupling (EUPHEMIA)

11/
Timeline to develop new system:
▶️ By April 2021: CBA and outline technical proposals
▶️ By November 2021: Technical proposals
▶️ By April 2022: System starts operating

p.785

12/
Other provisions in the deal:

▶️ New Specialised Committee on Energy to discuss/implement some bits of the energy title and annexes (page 12)

▶️ Commitment to carbon pricing in the section on "level playing field"

[Title XI, Article 7.3, page 202]

13/
Overall:
▶️ Lots of sensible provisions, much to gain for both sides
▶️ Market coupling will be weaker, even with new system (Apr 2022)
▶️ Welcome focus on North Sea
▶️ Need to understand more on termination provisions

See more in our recent paper:
https://t.co/KEXNIWvAHJ

14/14

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I am in the market for positive, optimistic articles about Brexit - it may not be how I’m feeling but I’m sure I’ve missed things + want to avoid confirmation bias so I’m opening my mind, + this seemed like a good place to

Elliott argues that ‘the UK has deep, structural economic problems’ - true, but correlation is not causation: we look in vain for an argument that these problems are caused by EU membership and/or that membership is preventing them being tackled

The argument would be stronger if Elliott could show that other countries in the EU faced similar structural problems, but he doesn’t + I don’t think he could - the EU manages to incorporate a wide range of economic models, + regional inequalities vary hugely between EU countries

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@ZachElsbury
On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.

For that, thanks goes to Brexit.

A thread because why not...


Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.

Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.

Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.

Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.

Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.

Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.

It’s importance will be seen shortly.
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Ben W. Ansell
Ben W. Ansell
@benwansell
🇬🇧🇪🇺 Who caused Hard Brexit? Some thoughts from the perspective of a social scientist. In the last few days we have seen an interminable debate on whether Remainers, Soft Brexiters, or Hard Brexiters are responsible for Hard Brexit. And it’s a false debate. Why? 1/n

People are confusing 'causes of effects' with 'effects of causes'. What this means is that we are all interested in - the former - why Hard Brexit happened - but using arguments about how one actor did something - the latter - as our explanation. These are different! 2/n

It is completely possible that Remainers not accepting a customs union increased the probability of Hard Brexit - that's an effect of a cause. But that does not imply responsibility. Because there are lots of other causes producing the same effect. 3/n

When most of us think about 'responsibility' we have clear lines of cause and effect. This one person did this one thing thus they are responsible. But with Brexit we have lots and lots of actors doing lots of things and we have ended up at this one historical moment. 4/n

So Boris choosing one of his letters; May wanting to end free movement; SNP/Lib Dems/ChangeUK (remember them?) not voting for customs union; they all contributed to a higher probability of Hard Brexit. But it's all so fantastically contingent that we can't pick out one. 5/n
BREXIT
Alliance of British Entrepreneurs
Alliance of British En...
@AllianceBE
🇬🇧 Happy Independence Day patriots 🇬🇧

Its Day 1 outside the #EU so we wanted to remind you of all the things Remainers told you would happen on #Brexit day.

Never in the history of political movements has one side fibbed so spectacularly and (at times) hilariously.

[THREAD]

[1] How are you all feeling today...down there?🍆

Well please be careful because now we've left the EU we are all due waves of super gonorrehoea.

Wrapping yourself in the #EU flag and putting #FBPE in your bio is the only known

[2] Are you hungry? Well get used to it.

We were fed (excuse the pun) stories as late as November 2020 that #Brexit would lead to 60% reduction in haulage meaning 'months' of food shortages.

[3] Forget those foreign holidays unless you fancy swimming the Channel.

As late as October 2020 we were told that all flights would be grounded.

Both sides quietly agreed to contingencies in December. Quelle

[4] In March 2020 as COVID hit Europe, we were told the only way to obtain ventilators was by joining the #EU scheme. We refused and Remainers screeched that the Government was putting Brexit over breathing.

The EU scheme obtained...zero...ventilators.
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Matt Carr
Matt Carr
@MattCarr55
I really can’t see how, after the last four and half years, the breakup of the UK can be avoided. What a historical irony that a Brexit intended to make Britain ‘great again’ actually brings about the demise of ‘Great’ Britain.

I actually don’t see this as a bad thing. After all, the aggressive chauvinistic nationalism, hubris, and exceptionalism that made Brexit possible is predominantly an English phenomenon. Part of the historical paradox whereby Englishness expresses itself through Britishness,

without explicitly recognising that this nationalism is primarily embedded in England rather than the Celtic periphery. A United Ireland is long overdue. Scotland - regardless of the debates about the economic viability of independence- has reached the point when a decisive

breach now seems inevitable. If this happens, Wales may well follow. Then, finally, England will have to decide what it wants to be, and look at the flaws and failings - political, economic, and constitutional - that it has put off dealing with, or blamed on others

Not arguing that Brexit was therefore a progressive development btw - far from it - but a country that was willing to do something so fundamentally harmful, and so stupid, and which allowed itself to be taken over by political forces of the kind we’ve seen, is an ill country
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