Bronze Age Collapse & resultant trade breakdown led to cession of bronze production in the Don River Basin. Locals reverted to stone & bone tools, then figured out how to make iron tools. Their neighbors adopted iron over the next few centuries. pic.twitter.com/HoDk52cLuH
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) August 29, 2020
As bloody as the world wars were, they weren’t particularly bad by historical standards. The 17th century was uniquely bad for 2nd millennium AD, with Little Ice Age & glut of specie leading to state collapses & population decline across Eurasia.
There are no traces of permanent Corded Ware settlements anywhere - strongly supporting that they were nomadic cattle herders. Only after Bell Beaker arrival in 2300 BC do sedentary agricultural settlements return. pic.twitter.com/GkPluSgbbt
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) May 3, 2020
Shennan: massive EEF population growth in Ireland 4000-3600 BC, followed by population decline & reforestation 3600-3400 BC. pic.twitter.com/HksEl16OjH
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) June 18, 2020
Resurgence of Hunter-Gatherer ancestry in Copper Age Balkan EEF populations of mid 4000s & return of hunter-gatherers cultural customs. EEF Cucuteni\u2013Trypillians experienced this too - were 80% EEF, 10% EHG, 10% WHG in ancestry, showing they mixed with local HGs. pic.twitter.com/Tqf5yoc99U
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) July 26, 2020
Please note that there was also terrible flooding in the Balkans in 6200 BC & the EEF invaded Europe from Anatolia via Greece at the same time. pic.twitter.com/oSS3r3l2AP
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) May 7, 2020
The first dark age from 8300 BC to 7500 BC pic.twitter.com/8ONTVjB48X
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) April 23, 2019
Primitive farming as early as 21000 BC pic.twitter.com/rZsVhGasi9
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) April 22, 2019
More from Economy
"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."
https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz
2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).
Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK
1/ Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Tests of Return Predictability: What Is the Difference? (Goyal, Jegadeesh)
— Darren \U0001f95a (@ReformedTrader) June 18, 2019
"The difference between the performances of TS and CS strategies is largely due to a time-varying net-long investment in risky assets."https://t.co/CSIn3ujN2R pic.twitter.com/XHnVmIart4
3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.
More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL
1/ An Executive Summary (in Tweet form) of our new paper
— Adam Butler (@GestaltU) March 27, 2019
Dual Momentum \u2013 A Craftsman\u2019s Perspective
Download here: https://t.co/Y9GlGNohBg
Everything that follows in this thread is based on HYPOTHETICAL AND SIMULATED RESULTS. pic.twitter.com/9m5YJnTdtq
4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.
"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.
"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."
5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.
"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."
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One thing I've been noticing about responses to today's column is that many people still don't get how strong the forces behind regional divergence are, and how hard to reverse 1/ https://t.co/Ft2aH1NcQt
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) November 20, 2018
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote: