BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Quick intro to more analysis later - since Freeports are mentioned in this article worth making the point that it seems to me under the UK-EU deal that if the UK provides subsidies for them, or relaxes labour or environmental rules in them, the EU can take retaliatory action.

 There has never been level playing field content like this in a trade deal. The idea it is any kind of UK win, when the UK's opening position was no enforceable commitments whatsoever, is ridiculous. https://t.co/iXlWqzzrlu
The EU can take retaliatory action against the UK if we weaken labour standards, weaken pretty firm climate change targets, unfairly subsidise, or just in general seem to be out of line. There are processes to follow, but it looks like the PM did it again...
Final one for now. Quite how Labour gets itself in such a fuss about whether to support a deal with the strongest labour and environment commitments ever seen in a trade deal is a sign of just how far it hasn't moved on from leaving.
PS well... (sorry DAG). It certainly didn't have a good effect. And I think if we had settled LPF issues with the EU much earlier there is a good chance the conditions would have been far less stringent. By making an issue, we made it much worse. https://t.co/M4MYbjSbK3
Interesting... https://t.co/V4DimjmVPm
Oh, here's the text. Have a quick flick through it, be astonished at the dull legalese, wait for specialist takes. Well that's my plan anyway... https://t.co/sOAyoi5AKJ
So the UK signed up for ECJ as well, in a, shall we say, limited and specific way. Inevitable I think, but a powerful precedent. https://t.co/FEDCYJIWMM
I am incidentally very much looking forward to distinguishing between those in the ERG who drop their principled objections to follow the prevailing political wind (true followers of Johnson?) and those who note that Johnson never saw a UK red line he wasn't prepared to relax.
Rules of origin quotas. Catnip for @SamuelMarcLowe. https://t.co/3zVyDilYbC
Most of the year has actually been internal negotiations within parties, the crucial bit that the media misses. And in the UK the need for a deal to safeguard car manufacturing in the short term seems to have won in the end. https://t.co/YgahmntPQ0
This is the Brussels Effect.

(Incidentally I'm reading as well, but copying the best points I see from others). https://t.co/BsJQU3sJWP
Absolutely this (from a former negotiator). My evolving conclusion is that a UK failure to reach a realistic internal position sufficiently early on LPF and fish in particular has meant ending up with a worse deal than expected in these areas. https://t.co/sww9JNejEj
On even simpler, talking tough to the domestic gallery when competing with a very experienced trade superpower is a very poor negotiating strategy, particularly if your leader has form for folding when the going gets tough.
Alternate view. https://t.co/MNsl46xkV5
And more worth considering, especially in comparison to Conservative MPs with their Number 10 briefs claiming improbably the opposite. https://t.co/rgenUqwGmv
A weak deal for UK agricultural exporters in terms of checks. https://t.co/rJsp413oRK

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
As is traditional for this time of year, and more in hope than expectation, my top ten trade / Brexit hopes for 2021...

1 - The UK Government ditches the unnecessary secrecy and engages much more openly with business, NGOs etc about their priorities, and reflects them

2 - Parliament steps up its game on government scrutiny beyond select committee reports and starts expecting answers on why priorities have been chosen, why trade agreements with which countries, what the content should be etc

3 - UK business do their best to keep on exporting and importing, innovating and partnering, to overcome the new barriers in their way, and also to keep shouting for government to remove barriers as they arise

4 - Brexiteers show even the vaguest hint of interest in the views of those who continue to want strong ties with the EU, rather then repeating over and over again, to even the vaguest hint of criticism, "you lost suckers, get over it"

5 - Remainers, rejoiners and the like stop talking quite so much about how the 2016 referendum was stolen from them, which is becoming both history and suggests that 17 odd million people were conned

(NB not confident on the last two)
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Not the easiest to follow, but for those interested in the big picture of trade relations between US, EU and China this exchange between @alanbeattie and @IanaDreyer is an essential read. Real debate on key issues, and good points on both sides.


Also reading this from @gideonrachman on EU-China. My view (cynically?) - that EU-China is a deal that makes a lot of sense given a probably unresolvable trade policy superpower triangle with the US, and best for the EU to move while China will.

The US and EU roughly agree on China that it should do some things differently, but not really the details of what those are. Meanwhile the EU and US have long standing trade policy differences, which neither (or their key stakeholders) prioritise resolving.

For the EU, the China deal has sent a message to the new US administration, you can't just tell us what to do. And delivered some (probably marginal in reality) benefits to business. For China, this is the 3rd deal with EU or US in 12 months. Pretty clear strategy there.

The key assumption that lies at the heart of too much writing on EU-US relations is that the two should cooperate on trade. After 25 years of largely failing to do so, I'd suggest we might want to question that a bit more deeply.
ECONOMY
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This potential benefit list from CPTPP is not the longest and is still misleading. Those Malaysian whisky tariffs - emilimated over 15 years (if they don't seek any specific exemption for UK). Those rules of origin benefits? Only apply to import / export to CPTPP countries. https://t.co/9TbheOVhsR


Here's my more realistic take on CPTPP. Economic gains limited, but politically in terms of trade this makes some sort of sense, these are likely allies. DIT doesn't say this, presumably the idea of Australia or Canada as our equal upsets them.


As previously noted agriculture interests in Australia and New Zealand expect us to reach generous agreements in WTO talks and bilaterals before acceding to CPTPP. So this isn't a definite. Oh and Australia wants to know if we'll allow hormone treated beef

Ultimately trade deals are political, and the UK really wants CPTPP as part of the pivot to indo-pacific, and some adherents also hope it forces us to change food laws without having to do it in a US deal (isn't certain if this is the case or not).

If we can accede to CPTPP without having to make changes to domestic laws it is fine. Just shouldn't be our priority, as it does little for services, is geographically remote, and hardly cutting edge on issues like climate change or animal welfare.
SOCIETY
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/

The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/


You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/

The same unfortunately typically applies to trade deals. If you are Nissan and threaten to leave the country without the right deal you have more clout than a small cheesemaker. As we see. But is it just the EU that is over-bureaucratic? Sadly not... 4/


One of the best UK business groups on trade policy @BritAmBusiness (and yes you can quote me @EmanueAdam) has a new report out on a UK-US trade deal and SMEs. It shows opportunities. But unfortunately problems unlikely to be solved. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Breathless accounts of brilliant negotiating are oddly unaccompanied by statements of UK wins.

Twice the PM has signed up to deals he previously said no PM could sign up for. The level of self-deception in turning these into triumphs is off the scale.

A wise man has suggested that Johnson's self delusions are good for the UK in the way he folds under EU pressure but denies it - that this actually delivers the best result.

But it doesn't do much for the country's politcal debate to have such delusions at the heart of the most important economic relationship. And they don't have such delusions in Belfast.

Perhaps it is the way of UK politics that no leader can be seen to be pro-EU, that the UK must be seen to be bigger than the EU, even though the UK is obviously smaller and needs the EU for trade.
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Zach Elsbury \U0001f333\U0001f536
Zach Elsbury 🌳🔶...
@ZachElsbury
On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.

For that, thanks goes to Brexit.

A thread because why not...


Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.

Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.

Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.

Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.

Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.

Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.

It’s importance will be seen shortly.
BREXIT
katya adler
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1

EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2

Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3

EU leaders - who surprise, surprise already have a thing or two planned in their diaries over next couple of weeks - have zero appetite to return to Brussels again especially for #Brexit They have no desire to be involved in the drama playing out right now in the UK BUT /4

If MPs reject the deal, if there are plans for a general election or a referendum on the deal then a longer extension will be necessary. Here it is harder for EU leaders to come to immediate consensus so an emergency summit becomes likely /5
BREXIT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU

So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2



They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3

@EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

But lots of industry has wrongly bet that 'common sense' and 'self interest' would prevail once the nasty negotiations phase was out the way...but that's not the signal being sent. /4

As one EU official puts it: “You can’t expect the UK to remain the food import hub for the EU. It’s not sustainable, and makes no sense in the mid-to-longer run." And that applies to financial services, clothing, retail goods....a bureaucratic curtain has descended. /4
BREXIT
Steve Hyndside
Steve Hyndside
@SteveHyndside
I’m feeling really sad today thinking about what we’ve lost over the last 5 years. But this is mixed with proud knowledge I, and many around me, did all we could to avert this disaster unfolding. This is a short thread to give a shout out to some of them 1/


First up is @GreenPartyMolly - I’ve already rung her today to say this and more. But she was both astute and persuasive in her tireless work before and after the referendum. I remain proud to have worked for her and supported her.

Second up is @ewgjones - one of the few who threw himself into election mode before the referendum and saw the pragmatic need for a persuasive targeted GreenerIn campaign. Without him @SW_GreenerIN probably wouldn’t have happened (or certainly looked very different)

Third up is my former colleague @aw_bell who pivoted quicker than anyone I knew through the grief of 2016 to try & make the best of the awful situation post referendum. He metaphorically shook me awake when I kinda wanted to hide under a duvet (and I think he did this for many)

Fourth up is Joe Williams - friend who helped set up @Bristol4Europe (who really led the national response post referendum). He was a calculated head in a room who dared to think big when others were panicking.
BREXIT
Brigid Laffan
Brigid Laffan
@BrigidLaffan
This is the second time in one week that I have to engage with something written by a British academic on their assessment of Brexit & Ireland. In this case @HelenHet20 in @NewStatesman 🧵

1. @HelenHet20 Europe’s vaccine crisis has revealed the true nature of the EU?? Ireland has been a member state since 1973, has had more refs on EU topics than any other country & thus its political & administrative elite knows & understands EU @BrigidLaffan

2. Said elite & electorate never idealised EU-small states are acutely aware of limits of their power & deploy capacity with care-the Swedes coined the term smart states. Small states understand they have to be smart. @BrigidLaffan

3. Since 24th of June 2016 Ireland has been shown unstinting solidarity from 26 EU states & EU institutions. During this time, its nearest neighbour tried to power it off the diplomatic pitch & kept thinking that It could peel Ireland off from EU solidarity. @BrigidLaffan

4. On the vaccine debacle & it was one the lesson the Irish will take is that having a seat at the table & voice matters-it took an Irish Taoiseach & Foreign Minister a couple of hours to sort this out. @BrigidLaffan
BREXIT

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