Traders often overlook the SHORT STRADDLE due to its simplicity.

It remains the TOP strategy to make money when the market is not trending.

Here's how you can make money using only the short straddle
in various market conditions

⬇️ A comprehensive thread🧵

A short straddle is the most basic neutral options strategy.

Where a call option and a put option are sold at the same strike price.

Max profit = Total premium received ( call leg + put leg )

Max risk = Unlimited

(using SLs would be wise)

Upper breakeven = Strike price + Total Premium received

Lower breakeven = Strike price - Total Premium received

Essentially short straddles are initiated when the trader is confident about the market staying in a certain range (between the breakevens of the straddle)

Long-term short straddles usually require fewer adjustments since the range is wide.

Since unlimited loss is a component of the strategy, the trader has to adjust the strategy to increase profit/ mitigating risk

1) Let's talk about my favourite video platform Bilibili. What is it, what it isn't and and how it makes money. It's been called the Chinese YouTube that that framing lacks imaginary.

The $bili stock also 5x in 2020 - who knew weebs could be so lucrative

2) Grossly simplified, it's the Chinese equivalent of Youtube. Except it's not. It's like if Youtube, Twitch, Steam, Patreon, TokyoPop and Netflix had a CRISPR-baby, and that baby was a weeb, but that weeb is also super down with Chinese Gen Z

3) Bilibili was founded in 2010 by avid Anime, Gaming and Comics (AGC) fan Yi Xu from a frustration that the mainstay Chinese anime platform kept crashing with no consistent access to his beloved vocaloid Miku

4) Serial entrepreneur Rui Chen went from an angel investor to CEO, having obtained Yi Xu's trust by correctly identified the origin of Bilibili as from the anime "A Certain Scientific Railgun". Anime knowledge is life.

5) Currently it's the biggest mainstream portal for the Chinese Gen Z with user-generated video sharing, live streaming, mobile gaming, online comics and event ticketing. It’s also diversified its content coverage with coverage on beauty, e-sports, pop culture and many others.

So one last go.

I will try to do this thread without swearing but it will be hard…
…and I’m afraid im really going to have to spell it out to some of you.

This EU has set out a way back to Rejoin…but many of you remainers still don’t get it....

- A thread -

2/

How many of you wanging on about Starmer actually read the treaty or commentary on it?

Of course it’s lousy. But in 1 way it’s good:
If you’d read it, you'd know EU have cleverly & quite deliberately set out a way back to rejoin..

...with big bl**dy lanterns to mark the way

3/
The treaty sets up not just a framework for constant negotiations but 5 year reviews for “adjustment”. Anything is possible 2026:
Single Market, alignment up to 90% of EU membership – but one thing won’t be – Rejoin.
& that’s as 2024 election won’t be fought on 2nd referendum.

4/

Johnson/a Brexiter will be PM in 2024 – they’ll win any election on 2nd referendum – easily.
Which is why Labour ruled it out.

Also not clear EU would be exactly "enthralled" by a non-aligned state suddenly deciding it’ll (re)join EU.

You – all of us - need to get smarter.

5/

What we all must understand....and fast is:

The road to rejoining the EU runs thru alignment...

....Which runs thru 2026 review...

....Which depends on 2024 election.

So how do we get there?

#TATAMOTORS (TM) Analysis in weekly and daily time frame chart:

In this thread I have tried to capture,

a) How is journey of @TataMotors till date
b) What are the possibilities ahead
c) The possible trade plan with logic

What weekly chart is conveying :

a) Stock is in pure downtrend as it is making lower high (LH) and lower low (LL).
To understand HH HL LL LH, read #Dowtheory and refer tweets of @Rishikesh_ADX & @Jitendra_stock .(also watch @elearnmarkets F2F video of @Rishikesh_ADX )

b) As per weekly chart, to make the higher high (HH), Stock has to cross the level 200 and then when it retrace (pull back), Stock should not fall below 69. (To understand pullback, refer tweets of @sanstocktrader )

Now look @ #Tatamotors daily:

a) Immediate support is @ 150.
b) Immediate resistance is @ 198-200. (as we discussed in weekly chart analysis)
If it manage to cross 200, it will form it's first higher high (HH) on weekly tf.
c) If it manage to cross 200, then 240 is on the card

Possibilities ahead :

a) It may trade in channel before it make the HH in weekly TF chart.

In this case we can buy at support and sell at resistance.

Support is 157 & resistance is 200.
i.e 27% target from buy level)

Refer image.

Just got a tip that Citadel reloaded their shorts before they told Robinhood to stop trading $GME.

If this is true, Ken Griffin and the Robinhood founders should be in jail.

This is class warfare.

@aoc there should be a congressional hearing

More thoughts on $FISV following investor day last week

This time focused on the newly named FinTech segment: core account processing and digital banking arm of legacy Fiserv

TLDR: While it’s the smallest segment (~20% of FISV revenue), it’s the “glue” that ties things together

1) $FISV FinTech segment is the #1 provider of core processing and digital banking solutions to the ~11,000 banks and credit unions in the US

Its mission critical systems power 3,700 FIs:
- core processor for 1 out of every 3 banks
- digital offering for 95 out of top 100 banks

2) This segment dates back to the origins of $FISV, and today it’s the market share leader with nearly 40% of all US banks relying on FISV to power everything from new account opening, items processing, online/mobile banking, regulatory compliance, general ledger/reporting, etc

3) Not just the market leader, $FISV is also has a best-in-class offering

Well regarded Aite Group rates it better than nearest competitors $FIS $JKHY

Today, these 3 dominate the market and maintain an oligopoly structure, with various other point solutions pretty far behind

4) $FIS skews larger multinational banks (2x+ as many $10B+ banks as FISV/JKHY combined) and $JKHY is 1,700+ community/credit unions

However, the sweet spot for $FISV is $1-50B banks (now 500+ as clients) while also maintaining a strong base of 3,200+ community/credit unions

Knowledge sharing initiative Book 4: "The interpretation of financial statements" by Benjamin Graham.

This book was published around 1937 by investing legend Ben Graham. Ben is also regarded as the guy under whom the great Warren Buffett started his investing journey.

This book teaches financial statement analysis in a very simple manner. It also focuses on the key relationship between P&L, B/s & Cash flow statements of a company.

Here are key takeaways from the book 👇👇

1.B/s shows how much a company owns (assets) & owes (liabilities) at a particular point in time mostly prepared on a semi-annual & annual basis.

2.Assets=Tangible (PP&E, inventories, accounts receivable, cash)+intangible Assets (trademark, lease rights, goodwill)

3.Liabilities=Short term debt (accounts payable,current portion of long term debt,advances from customers) + Long term Debt (bank loans,bonds,lease liability)
4.Tangible assets are written down through depreciation & intangibles are written down through amortization or impairment

5. Depreciation & amortization means normal wearing out assets over its typical lifespan. It allows the cost of the asset to be charged off (in the income statement) over a number of years.

6. Depletion gets applied in commodity businesses like cement, mining, and crude oil.

OK let me try math again.

GoodStaking: you invest X, like you would in a savings account. After many years it produces Y interest, of which Y/2 go to the reserve over time, and Y/2 becomes G$ that you own.

No, that's wrong. Jesus.

The entire Y goes into the reserve, and that generates a Z amount of G$.

Z/2 goes to people as UBI.

Z/2 goes to you.

OK, so I wasn't that far off.

If I donate a large amount of money to the reserve, what I am doing is emulating a large Y. I'm taking a ton of money that I *have* (so it would be a "principal" today, a X) and pretending it's like a Y of someone else that will do GoodStaking.

The money that I have is a small X. It will generate a small Y. Instead, I want to take my small X and pretend it's a large Y, which would originate from a large X. That I don't have. Because I'm poor.

So if I want to make the largest possible impact into the UBI reserve, to make a splash, and help it be noticed, I can take the small amount of money I have, the X I have, and pretend it's a Y of staking, and time warp it to the present and use the X to buy G$ from the reserve.

#FranklinTempleton investors - our primary objective should be to safeguard our investment and not punish FT. Litigations will and should continue. But trying to teach FT a lesson by voting NO is shooting ourselves in the foot!!! Fire sale will destroy our investment

#FranklinTempleton investors - FT is anyways under a scanner. They cannot escape if they are doing anything wrong. But if Funds re-open , no one can save us and we will be doomed by our own choices

#FranklinTempleton investors - I know that everyone that FT has cheated us by illegally winding funds, however the point is that if we reopen now - everyone will redeem and it will be a panic situation where everyone will loose. A better option is to let the funds wind up orderly

Floor trading and fintwit share an overlapping dynamic

"cooperative competition"

It'll be fun to lay out some basics of the floor trading ecosystem and you will spot analogies.

First an fyi.

The floor gave traders what was known as "time/place advantage". It was the first place an order became public if it was not an electronic order.

Let's classify the traders on the floor:

"Locals" and prop firms

"Locals" are independent traders.

They trade their own money and secure the right to trade on the floor by owning or leasing one of the limited seats which represented an ownership stake by the exchange's "members" (this was before demutualization)

You know prop shops.

Names like Group One, Timber Hill (IBKR), Jane Street, CTC, DRW, Cooper Neff, O'Connor, Cutler, Wolverine, and my alma mater SIG.

Traders representing these firms usually have a salary and bonus (discretionary, formulaic, or hybrid)

A little digression. There's a 3rd class of trader which is a "backed" trader which blurs local and firm.

These firms were usually tied to clearing firms and offered economies of scale in risk management, software, data, clearing rates.

I left SIG in 2008 to get backed...

Asana is the tool we all know even if we don't use it ourselves. With that famous B2C CEO that decided to do SaaS next.

It's crossed $250,000,000 in ARR and is starting to march upmarket

Here are 5 Interesting Learnings from Asana at $250M ARR:

#1. Asana, like Slack, has self-service roots. But now, 40% of its customers are closed by the sales team, trending to 50%.

Asana is now planning to double the size of its sales team in 2020

#2. Asana has 115% NRR overall, but it's the segmentation that's interesting.

140% NRR for $50k+ customers
125% NRR for $5k-$50k customers
100% or so NRR for < $5k customers

Given it still skews 60% SMB, this is consistent with other market leaders like Zendesk, etc

#3. Asana is growing 55% at $250M+ in ARR, which is very impressive and top-tier. But its $50k+ accounts are growing >>100%+<<

We saw with Zendesk and Shopify the SMB growth keep pace with enterprise, and we saw with Slack enterprise be the engine of growth

Asana is in middle

#4. Its crossed 89,000 customers, so the average customer pays ~$2,800 a year. So the average ticket is still quite small.

Asana has the challenge many of you do. The Big Customers are growing fastest (100% YoY), but 40% of its revenue is still from accounts < $5k ACV.

My swing cash strategy ☢️
(In simple language)

1⃣ #stock selection process - always choose that stock which are consolidating near all time high

(Because whenever stock will give all time high breakout then it will easily give 20/30% return in 1/2 months

2⃣Volume analysis - In that consolidating period volume should be high of up move days then down move days. And last 3/4 month volume of accumulation is must higher then previous days.

3️⃣ fund diversification - always deploy your capital in 3/4 stocks, not more then that or not less then 3.

And, your 3/4 stocks must be from different strong sectors.

4⃣comunding magic - If you hold 10 stocks then if 2 stocks will give 100% return then portfolio impact is 20% only. (here time period is 8/15 months)

If you hold 3 stocks out of them 2 will give 40% then ur portfolio impact is 25%
(Here time period is 1/3 months)

5⃣sectors analysis - always choose that sector stocks which are near support or breakout stage.

If any stocks is out of nifty sector then u can open stock scanner website and check their peer charts.If out of 5 ,3 are strong then u can select that

Individual decisions will always supercede to those of masses.

One of the theories which justifies why ITC struggles to have a big rally as other stocks have.

FMCG stocks' analysis from a different
view

Thread:

It is always easy to convince 10 people that you have something valuable to offer than to convince the same thing to 1000 people.

The same thing happens with ITC too.

The total number of shares outstanding of various FMCG companies are as follows

PGHH : 3.2 Crores
Nestle : 9.6 Crores
Marico: 129 Crores
Dabur : 177 Crores
HUL : 216 Crores

And just have a guess at what might be the number for ITC.

ITC has 1229 Crore Shares outstanding!!!!

Obviously some portion is held by promoters and FII/DIIs and some portion is not available for trading on a daily basis because it has some lock-in period.

When does a rally happens in a stock?

When every investor is just trying to buy the shares and the supply is too low.

This is what happened in Ruchi Soya when the free float was so less that even a small demand caused the upper circuit in the stock.

One of an interesting thing in Current stock market,is as soon as Saturn progressing after Retrogression phase, gained the speed in trine to Rahu - Both raw Metals & oil prices are doing good. At the sametime Rahu trine alignment with Jupiter has also boomed the bank market.

Trine movement of Rahu along with Saturn and Jupiter has broken all the bullish trend setter records and amplified the internal economy. In March 2020, Pluto, Ketu and Mars has totally shaken the market into bearish trend.Keep Remember Rahu is trend setter - Strong Bearish,

Ketu - is Trend breaker- Strong bearish.

Untill and unless Jupiter is keep moving aggressively without any affliction with Atichari Motion market will keep booming.

Period of Affliction will start from 21 December 2020 onward & when Sun will Join Jupiter in January 2021

Jupiter will be in its most aggressive motion, This is the period when Market will start fluctuating real bad in January month upto Feburary 2021 period.

From 4th of January 2021 onward upto 28th January, 10th Feburary 2021, as soon as venus moves toward dhanu & Capricorn, when complete Sarpa dosha will begin, Jupiter will be in super speed with Sun, there will be heavy conjunction of 6 planet's form in Capricorn-

🧠 11 of the best tweets by @jposhaughnessy

Jim Sir has a spectacular ability to simplify complex topics and put them in just a tweet or thread.

I scraped his entire tweet library - here are some of my faves 🔥🔥🔥

THREAD...

1/11

The brightest people I have met share a superpower that would serve investors well - the ability to make inherently complex things simple and understandable.

2/11

If you can change your focus, you can change your future.

Don’t spend a minute worrying about something that you can’t control. If something can’t be changed by you taking direct action, put it out of your mind.

Today’s society is overrun with useless distractions.

3/11

Things you learn as you get older:

Other people are far less interested in you than you think they are.

4/11

Investors:
Your "morning routine" doesn't matter;
Finding "clever hacks" won't help you;
Reading lists of "10 things all successful people" do won't help you;
Watching "motivational videos" won't help you.

What will?
Controlling your emotions, being patient and persistent.