Individual decisions will always supercede to those of masses.

One of the theories which justifies why ITC struggles to have a big rally as other stocks have.

FMCG stocks' analysis from a different
view

Thread:

OK, I guess I have a thing to say about the stock market. I have done kind of what these Reddit folks are doing with it, in that I have invested in the stock market when I was not at all rich, using parts of my paycheck that it probably wasn't wise to risk. I don't now. (thread)

But, like, it worked out okay for me. I even shorted some stuff. I didn't coordinate with anyone or whatever, but I don't think on the individual level the stock market is *inherently* malicious. If you're privileged, you're going to be exposed to it (through 401ks, etc.)

And I don't think it's wrong for people to try to make money off of it outside of the 401k/retirement context that's socially normal, *especially* if they're desperate like I was. There *are* strategies that you can use that, while risky, aren't exactly like gambling

Like, gambling is risky in a different way. You are always working with a fairly consistent set of probabilities in gambling, and they're never in your favor (outside of grey area gambling like between friends, where you could hypothetically actually still card count)

Anyway, like, on shorts: I don't think they're evil. I think they're dangerous. For an individual, a short always carries a small risk of individual bankruptcy. There's USUALLY not even a huge upside to them; they're not mystical or magical, they're basically reverse "longs"

1/x Vanna is back & ready to turn back on the charm! Overnight the market hit our weeklong target of **3705 and pulled back... We were able to take profits & play for a bit of morning digestion. It’s been a nice +3.5% in a week w/a few extra scalps along the way...But the best

2/x part has been the gift of Vol compression, which along w/ short Vol profits, has given us significant calendar expansion & dispersion opps, as predicted. I expect this to continue this week as well, as Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force until 12/11.This,

3/x paired w/ the significantly increasing Vanna & Charm flows, will make it hard for any decline until 12/14 to catch meaningful momentum. This said, the narrowing of 20 day RVol as well as the 2 stddev of the 20 day just overhead should cap any rallies, given the dramatically

4/x overextended retail (8-day SMA of P/C equity is the lowest in 20 years) & institutional positioning. This push/pull, should ultimately keep the market fairly pinned this week...Jan 8th call’s on back are incredibly cheap w/ a GA runoff event straddle of only $55, which given

5/x the potential macro-cyclical consequences of the next 2 years of fiscal stimulus seems absurd...& In terms of a more short term trade,Tesla Vol is either too high or 12/18 on back calendar spreads in the SPX are too low, as there’s no premium being priced in for the inclusion

A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %

gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%

This year, my trading income crossed ₹3CR in profits.

It took 300 days, no big drawdowns & operated at a 86% win rate percentage in weekly.

Here are the 6 steps for you to do great in trading:

Hope it's helpful to someone.

[🧵 thread]

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Learn Price Action

First of all, you need to focus on learning about price action.

If you do so, you'll be able to understand the big player's footprints better which is critical to know as we can side with them to make profit.

Better to be with them than against them.

2/ Journal your trades

Journaling will change your trading forever.

Why? Because you will precisely know where you are going wrong and whether you keep repeating the same mistakes.

You'll also know in which market you perform the best and in which type of markets you don't.

3/ Avoid losing more than 2% on a trade

I have seen many traders including the really good ones as well, where one big loss will spoil a month or two of their trading year.

The loss becomes so big to overcome that more mistakes are made.

So don't go in a big loss itself.

4/ Think only from a buyer vs seller point of view

You should know who is in control, a buyer or a seller not in options but in futures.

Also understand, at which points do these traders usually tend to give up.

Can take trades confidently and aggressively then.