I'll just put this out there:

1. This is classic liquidity crunch and has happened many times.

2. RH/etc. will turn out to have made mistakes, didn't plan for any of this, ultimately lose big.

3. Reform will center on how services are offered/advertised to retail investors.

4. Lots of coverage will center on class warfare narrative and the 'game being rigged'.

5. That same coverage will make 3 seem like the answer and a fair resolution to the problem.

6. The real culprit, as always, was leverage and incentives.

7. In the US financial institutions that accept deposits insured by the federal government (FDIC etc) are allowed to hold positions in risky assets, though this is regulated.

8. Other even less regulated institutions (funds etc) hold shares in the guys referred to in 7.

9. The REAL problem is those institutions are allowed to make leveraged bets that, if they go badly enough, could affect the value of 'safe' assets like savings accounts and pension funds.

10. Thus the ultimate incentive problem: Big funds ultimately insured by taxpayer dollars

11. Ultimately the ONLY real reforms that matter are:

i) Reserve requirements, i.e. how much banks/funds/etc are allowed to borrow to invest in risky assets

ii) Trade restrictions, i.e. some institutions (commercial banks) not allowed to hold some assets/positions (short)

I've been trying to understand for some time the impact of $GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) on the price of $BTC. Here's a good article to start, and here's a thread on my current thoughts...

There's no doubt that $GBTC has been a driving force in allowing investors to gain exposure to $BTC. For many investors, it provides the easiest way to get crypto exposure. As a result, $GBTC often trades at a large premium (20%-30%) over spot $BTC 2/9

Recently in January, $BTC prices have declined from a high of >$40k to <$30k (now back near $35k). $GBTC's premium to NAV has also dropped to <5% 3/9

It's worth understanding the mechanics of $GBTC. $GBTC allows accredited investors to buy private shares for 0% premium to NAV, and in return the accredited investors are locked up for 6 months. If you are a non-accredited investor, i.e. retail, you don't have this option 4/9

Many sophisticated investors have taken advantage of this arbitrage opportunity. One way an accredited investor can buy private shares of $GBTC is by depositing BTC (often times with leverage). In doing so, they can collect the $GBTC premium 5/9

Even though Ryan did an impeccable job at explaining shorting stocks, I just thought of an even simpler explanation using candy bars instead of stocks. @MattJonesRadio @DrewFranklinKSR @ShannonTheDude @ryanlemond

If you buy a candy bar for $1 and sell it for $1.50 you make $.50 profit. Everyone understands that. You expect that the price of candy bars will go up. But what if you expect the price of candy bars to go down? That is where shorting stocks comes into play.

Shorting a stock is like bumming a candy bar worth $1 from a friend with the promise that you will replace it in a week. You then decide not to eat it, but to sell it to someone else for $1. So you have $1 in your pocket, but you owe a candy bar worth $1 so there is no gain.

But, if the price of candy bars drops to $.50 during the week, you have $1 in your pocket from the original sale but the replacement candy bar only costs you $.50, so you make $.50 profit overall.

Buying stock has unlimited profit potential, but low risk. You can only lose your original cost. Say you buy a $1 candy bar to sell, but your stupid brother eats the candy bar before you could sell it. The most you could lose is the original price of the candy bar or $1.

‘Billions will be wiped off the stock market!’

‘Project fear’

‘There will be chaos at ports!’

‘Project fear!’

‘Supermarkets and shops will struggle to get products’

‘Project fear!’

‘Medicinal supplies could dry up!’

‘Project fear!’

‘Brexit will detrimentally affect the value of the pound’

‘Project fear!’

The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not...

Most of the banks whining about Reddit would be more bankrupt than Gamestop if the government wasn't constantly propping them up with easy money.

It's all an artificial construct. Which is fine, as long as we stop pretending it's an objective marketplace governed by natural law.

We've set up a system where everyone depends on too big to fail finance companies, public policy doesn't work without them, but they're ALSO allowed to be predatory and they're never allowed to lose money.

Citigroup doesn't get to decide who lives and who dies.

We apparently aren't allowed to decide with our VOTES that hedge funds should die and brick and mortar companies should live if possible.

And now they're freaking out if we literally start deciding it with our *money* in their "free" market.

They don't get to decide! /3

Goldman Sachs, Citgroup and Manhattan hedge funds are not sober, responsible judges of who deserves to live or die according to real capitalist value.

If the rules were fairly and equally applied, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup would be bankrupt and stripped to the bone. /4

Everyone should own a digital asset that earns $2,000 per month.

Here are 10 dead-simple ways you can make your First $1 online (from people who actually did it):

🐦 Analyze viral Tweets

1. Get Twemex (free chrome extension)
2. Find influencers with viral tweets
3. Identify why they went viral
4. Put your analysis on a document.
5. Upload it to Gumroad
6. Sell it

H/t @BrianFOConnor

🔢 Extract data from yellow pages into excel

1. Find a B2B/B2C niche that needs offline data
2. Choose a digital platform (Excel, Airtable ..)
3. Move the data to the digital platform
4. Hire someone on Fiverr to do it
4. Sell it on gumroad

H/t @SachinRamje

🎨 Design flyers and graphics

If you are good at designs:

1. Find a niche (ex: Vegan resturants)
2. Create a profile on Upwork
3. Upload a portfolio
4. Start with a low charge per hour/design
5. Steadly increase your charge

H/t @abdussalampopsy

🏋️ Become a coach

1. Decide on a target persona
2. List down your achievements
3. Update your social profiles
4. Create a calendar account
5. Create content with CTA to book a call

H/t @OllieEmberson

A friend posted a photo of Woodstock from overhead as a demonstration of what 400,000 people look like. Its a huge number...hard to visualize.

I've been using citites.

For my friends back home, the day after my birthday (November 18) was the day a St Clair County's worth of people were dead. Imagine Belleville, O'Fallon, Fairview, and all the little farmtowns inbetween, empty.

Not even a month later (Dec 14th), you could have upgraded to the population center across the river; imagine the entire city of St. Louis, empty.

But, I've lived other places, and I know people from all over, many of whom have traveled quite a bit.

So, as we hit 400,000 Americans dead, lets put this in perspective.

Yesterday, it was the city of Arlington, 49th largest city in the US.

By the end of today, it will be Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Tomorrow, it will be Tampa, Florida, instead.

By next week probably (at this rate), Oakland, then Minneapolis a few days later.

About two weeks from now Virgina Beach, followed by Colorado Springs, Long Beach, and Miami...theres a few more cities between Miami and the next milestone (500,000), but...

Mistakes i made when i was new to trading..

A thread :

Watched news for tips ( it's ok to see interviews and all, but avoid watching it for tips )

Wanted everyone's view for my trades ( the more views you get, the more confused you will eventually be, focus on your own study )

Over traded ( more number of trades doesn't means over trading... Trading without plan is over trading )

Leverage trading ( it's ok to do it, but should be avoided in first year of trading or atleast till you have proper knowledge of the risk involved )