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Ok here is the extended thread on $XL I promised.
It is pretty straight forward.
For those that are new to stocks / options (because of the influx of interest due to $GME, $AMC, $SLV, etc), here are some terms you should google:
-Short Interest
-Call option
-Open Interest
/1
XL Fleet short interest increased from 50% to 72% in the latest reporting (came out Friday)
That alone piqued my curiosity in the company so I took a position in some Feb calls (in my robinhood account) and will be adding more in my TD account this coming week.
/2
Several days ago, Biden announced that he would be replacing the entire govt. fleet with electric vehicles
https://t.co/DNNMOwq6dv
$WKHS got a massive pump on this news but that was about it.
Who are the other likely candidates? $GOEV and $XL
Why is $XL one of the top candidates?
-Partnerships with Coke and Pepsi
-Board of Director members have strong ties with UPS and FedEx
-Management team is very connected in govt. associations for clean energy in wind, solar, and EV
- $XL is focused on transforming existing FLEETS
All of this can be found on their
It is pretty straight forward.
For those that are new to stocks / options (because of the influx of interest due to $GME, $AMC, $SLV, etc), here are some terms you should google:
-Short Interest
-Call option
-Open Interest
/1
XL Fleet short interest increased from 50% to 72% in the latest reporting (came out Friday)
That alone piqued my curiosity in the company so I took a position in some Feb calls (in my robinhood account) and will be adding more in my TD account this coming week.
/2
Several days ago, Biden announced that he would be replacing the entire govt. fleet with electric vehicles
https://t.co/DNNMOwq6dv
$WKHS got a massive pump on this news but that was about it.
Who are the other likely candidates? $GOEV and $XL
Why is $XL one of the top candidates?
-Partnerships with Coke and Pepsi
-Board of Director members have strong ties with UPS and FedEx
-Management team is very connected in govt. associations for clean energy in wind, solar, and EV
- $XL is focused on transforming existing FLEETS
All of this can be found on their
Let's look again at the 2005-2008 two parabolic advances in $gold. first, read yesterday's thread if you haven't:
Today i want to look what some major miners did - between the 2 parabolic gold advances: how did they act?
Getting more historic context in the minds, will allow us to navigate calmer the stormy waters ahead, and HOW we want to manage them.
(2)
my basic framework is we will see a parabolic metal top mid 2021, followed by another parabolic metal top early 2023.
Now what did some miners do in a same situation: the 2006-2008 timeframe.
Notice the $GDX was launched exactly a few weeks after the 2006 top 😉
(3)
example 1 of 4 is Barrick
gold lines = 2 gold parabolic tops.
Barrick didn't advance much first, and as such had only a 23% retrace before setting a floor.
Not something you would have wanted to trade.
Even with the 50% gold parabola retrace, the metal floor was $150 higher
example 2 of 4 is Hecla
while Hecla corrected 42%, the correction was very fast in time. The new metal floor made it quickly rise back after.
Something we could have hedged with SLV puts for example.
Silver retraced 38% and traded in tandem with $gold
How high can #gold run during this next intermediate cycle?
— Gold Ventures (@TheLastDegree) January 1, 2021
my current target stands at $2440 by May
targets are not exit points: the combination of a lot of signals/ratio's are. we adapt along the way
(1) https://t.co/QjuekzVzw1
Today i want to look what some major miners did - between the 2 parabolic gold advances: how did they act?
Getting more historic context in the minds, will allow us to navigate calmer the stormy waters ahead, and HOW we want to manage them.
(2)
my basic framework is we will see a parabolic metal top mid 2021, followed by another parabolic metal top early 2023.
Now what did some miners do in a same situation: the 2006-2008 timeframe.
Notice the $GDX was launched exactly a few weeks after the 2006 top 😉
(3)
example 1 of 4 is Barrick
gold lines = 2 gold parabolic tops.
Barrick didn't advance much first, and as such had only a 23% retrace before setting a floor.
Not something you would have wanted to trade.
Even with the 50% gold parabola retrace, the metal floor was $150 higher
example 2 of 4 is Hecla
while Hecla corrected 42%, the correction was very fast in time. The new metal floor made it quickly rise back after.
Something we could have hedged with SLV puts for example.
Silver retraced 38% and traded in tandem with $gold
I’d like to share a story about the benefits of investing in the private and public markets and how the private market mindset can help public equity investors.
2/A few years ago we invested in a private company called Meituan (3690 HK). Meituan is like doordash or Uber eats and we thought in China, with over 100 cities >1m pop, this would be a huge market. The other competitor was owned by Alibaba.
3/The company went public less than two years later at 70. We were ecstatic! Then the stock rapidly plunged to 40 based on renewed fears of competition with https://t.co/oVbw4yOOYV (Alibaba)
4/At the time we were locked up so there was nothing we could do. Today the stock is at almost 300 and $250B market cap. I fear what we might have done if not subjected to the lock up!
5/What’s the learning? In the private markets, the focus -FIRST- is TAM (size of market), then second everything else. And the stock price is static unless there is a new round. So you have time to develop your thesis.
2/A few years ago we invested in a private company called Meituan (3690 HK). Meituan is like doordash or Uber eats and we thought in China, with over 100 cities >1m pop, this would be a huge market. The other competitor was owned by Alibaba.
3/The company went public less than two years later at 70. We were ecstatic! Then the stock rapidly plunged to 40 based on renewed fears of competition with https://t.co/oVbw4yOOYV (Alibaba)
4/At the time we were locked up so there was nothing we could do. Today the stock is at almost 300 and $250B market cap. I fear what we might have done if not subjected to the lock up!
5/What’s the learning? In the private markets, the focus -FIRST- is TAM (size of market), then second everything else. And the stock price is static unless there is a new round. So you have time to develop your thesis.
1/ I love learning about the markets. There are some brilliant people I’ve found on Twitter who have provided great insights (among others):
@JeffSnider_AIP
@LynAldenContact
@LukeGromen
But this thread is (mostly) about @profplum99
👇👇👇👇👇
2/ Mike has an encyclopedic knowledge of market history. This interview by @DiMartinoBooth (who I also have a lot of respect for) puts that on clear display.
https://t.co/4hSd2TG4du
Mike’s explanation of passive investing and its effects on the markets was eye-opening.
3/ According to research conducted by Anadu et al for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, passive funds made up 48% of US equity assets under management in March 2020. That number was just 14% in 2005. Meaning 8.6% annualized growth over 15
4/ Per Mike, “passive funds have this really simple algorithm: if you give me cash, I buy.” No fundamental valuation, just buying the current market-weighted index, which means a stock gets greater representation in your fund the higher its current market value.
5/ Employers and pension fund managers are predictably contributing to IRAs through fixed salary percentages on a monthly basis. And passive funds typically hold tens of basis points of cash on the sidelines because, per Mike, “it’s toxic to their business model.”
@JeffSnider_AIP
@LynAldenContact
@LukeGromen
But this thread is (mostly) about @profplum99
👇👇👇👇👇
2/ Mike has an encyclopedic knowledge of market history. This interview by @DiMartinoBooth (who I also have a lot of respect for) puts that on clear display.
https://t.co/4hSd2TG4du
Mike’s explanation of passive investing and its effects on the markets was eye-opening.
3/ According to research conducted by Anadu et al for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, passive funds made up 48% of US equity assets under management in March 2020. That number was just 14% in 2005. Meaning 8.6% annualized growth over 15
4/ Per Mike, “passive funds have this really simple algorithm: if you give me cash, I buy.” No fundamental valuation, just buying the current market-weighted index, which means a stock gets greater representation in your fund the higher its current market value.
5/ Employers and pension fund managers are predictably contributing to IRAs through fixed salary percentages on a monthly basis. And passive funds typically hold tens of basis points of cash on the sidelines because, per Mike, “it’s toxic to their business model.”
We have shared a lot of threads exclusively on Subasish Pani in the past year.
As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.
Collborated with @AdityaTodmal
1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish
2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish
3/ The 5 EMA
4/ The Bollinger Band set-
As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.
Collborated with @AdityaTodmal
1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish
Important Concepts from Power of Stocks\u2014 Subhasish Pani
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) August 12, 2022
7+ years of trading experience in 14 tweets\U0001f9f5
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish
There are plenty of videos of Subhasish Pani from Power of Stocks.
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) April 17, 2022
You already know those.
Instead, here are 12 concepts from his videos that will make you a better trader\u2013\u2013not worse:\U0001f9f5
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
3/ The 5 EMA
Subasish Pani revealed the most simple, yet successful strategy: 5EMA set up!
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) July 3, 2022
Here is a thread of 23 video clips on the 5EMA set-up that will save you hundreds of hours and available to you for no cost!
5EMA set-up: \U0001f9f5!
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal
4/ The Bollinger Band set-
A set up which has a minimum Risk/Reward (R/R) of 1:4
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) October 2, 2022
This set up can be used for intraday, option selling, option buying, as well as investing.
Maximum profit strategy by Subasish Pani.
Bollinger band set-up: \U0001f9f5!
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal pic.twitter.com/aEIUVQF2XY
