1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble:

Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble

A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -

2/ Every document hereon comes from my former employer Bernstein Research's internal research archive, which extend back to 1994

Unfortunately, they're not available to the public (even Bernstein's client website cuts off at 2003), but happy to give more details if necessary

3/ LESSON #1: Everybody knew it was a bubble

Unfortunately, the quip "it's not a bubble if everyone says it is" just isn't true

Investors were comparing the internet sector to tulip mania as early as mid-98. Bernstein held an entire conference on it in June 99!

4/ LESSON #2: Calling bubbles is easy, making money is hard

In truth, the hard part about the tech bubble wasn't noticing it. The hard part was timing it

Our equity strategist tried in January 99... he was off by 14 months (and another 30 point gap in value vs growth)

5/ LESSON #3: Nobody knew the bubble popped until months after it did

Nobody noticed in March 2000 when it finally popped. Our equity strategist (who bet his career on it!) didn't catch on until June

thread

LESS IS MORE?

Fishing Opportunities

1. I'm reading the summary on the UK/EU trade agreement & have some concerns. It's not the full blown text, just an outline of the negotiated agreement so I may be needlessly cynical, we'll have to wait & see.

2. The 25% UK uplift of the value the EU member states catch in UK waters.

I see difficulties with this whichever way I try to spin it to myself:
a) The EU are reducing quotas in fishing waters for some species due to issues with sustainability.

3. So our uplift could cause over fishing of stocks in our own waters. The summary doesn't mention if/how EU access to our waters will be reduced?

b) But assuming the quotas are reduced in line with other member states waters, we could have a reduced income rather than uplift.

4. The 25% uplift is implemented over 5 yrs. So for the sake of argument let's assume it's 5% per yr. But if EU quotas are being reduced by an average of say 10% by weight, that 10% has a value attached to it & our annual uplift will be calculated in line with the lower quotas.

5. Although in theory there'd be a point in 2 yrs where our 5% increments would match the reduced EU quotas, the scientific advisers are calling for greater reductions in quotas to allow stocks to recover, so it's likely quotas will be cut again.

A thread of my favourite investing compilations, resources and rabbitholes I like to dive into:

The goat of compilations @kgao1412

Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) has a great site of speeches, interview, books and other resources

Highly underrated is @choctopcap's neocities site

My good mate Erick Mokaya (@ekmokaya) has a great @mjmauboussin resource list

Want to see two absolutely crazy, shady, frustrating charts? (warning: they're confusing, I'll explain)

These charts, which show stock price, volume, short interest, and short volume, tell the story of what happened over the past few days.

Left: $AMC, Right: $GME

On Wednesday night, Robinhood and several other apps limited trading of a number of tickers to just a few shares & options. You could sell as many as you owned, but you couldn't buy any more than a couple of each ticker. It included $AMC, $GME, and a few others…

They did this because their clearing houses increased liquidity requirements more than a hundred percent. A clearing house, if you’re wondering, is what settles all of the trades made during each trading day.

So, when you buy or sell a stock, you might see the cash or the stock in your account immediately. In the background, however, it’s a lot more complex: these clearing houses settle up the books between each other to make sure everyone is squared up properly.

These clearing houses have "liquidity reqs" which are set by regulations and other partners; they literally need to have a certain amount of cash on hand for different securities.

On Wednesday night, the requirements for certain extremely volatile stocks like GME skyrocketed.

A 17 point summary on my 2000+ days as a trader:

Wont take more than 10 minutes ! 🧵

1. Market cycles
Market Always moves in a cyclical way, supply and demand is basic principle for any cycle that involves money. Crack it you’ll be way ahead of the curve.

2. History rhymes
Always remember that history wont repeat but will surely rhyme - go and see all major falls and all major rises. Core principles are same, triggers are variable.

3. Time > Timing
Many people say that timing the mkt is very essential but according to me the more time you spend the more you get to know about mkt that jo course will teach you.

4. Survival
If you manage to survive for the next 3650 days in the market - trust me for the fact that you will definitely be a part of one commodity one bull and bear mkt. Its more valuable than any 1L INR course.

Just got a tip that Citadel reloaded their shorts before they told Robinhood to stop trading $GME.

If this is true, Ken Griffin and the Robinhood founders should be in jail.

This is class warfare.

@aoc there should be a congressional hearing

My swing cash strategy ☢️
(In simple language)

1⃣ #stock selection process - always choose that stock which are consolidating near all time high

(Because whenever stock will give all time high breakout then it will easily give 20/30% return in 1/2 months

2⃣Volume analysis - In that consolidating period volume should be high of up move days then down move days. And last 3/4 month volume of accumulation is must higher then previous days.

3️⃣ fund diversification - always deploy your capital in 3/4 stocks, not more then that or not less then 3.

And, your 3/4 stocks must be from different strong sectors.

4⃣comunding magic - If you hold 10 stocks then if 2 stocks will give 100% return then portfolio impact is 20% only. (here time period is 8/15 months)

If you hold 3 stocks out of them 2 will give 40% then ur portfolio impact is 25%
(Here time period is 1/3 months)

5⃣sectors analysis - always choose that sector stocks which are near support or breakout stage.

If any stocks is out of nifty sector then u can open stock scanner website and check their peer charts.If out of 5 ,3 are strong then u can select that

Introduction to imbalance charts (orderflow trading):

A 🧵

(1/n)

Orderflow charts essentially show the real time buying and selling happening in the markets.

In below chart, you can see how market sell orders are shown to the bid side and market buy orders are shown to the ask side.

(2/n)

Using this, one can identify big buying and selling happening at various prices.

Imbalance charts takes this one step forward. How so? Read on to find out.

(3/n)

Imbalance charts shows buying and selling imbalances at various price points. How does it matter?

Imbalance here implies to what extent is buying more than selling and vice versa.

(4/n)

Why is that important? As a trader, if we know that buying at a particular level is x times more than selling or vice versa, it would help us understand the strength of supply or demand coming into the market.

(5/n)

My 21 stocks for 2021:

Smallest to largest...
$IRBT
$UPWK
$FVRR
$RDFN
$BYND
$ETSY
$TDOC
$ZG / $Z
$PINS
$ROKU
$MO
$MELI
$ISRG
$SQ
$SE
$PM
$CRM
$DIS
$BRK.B
#Bitcoin
$AMZN

Bonus baskets:
$ARKG
A basket of the @chamath alphabet SPACS ( $SPCE, $OPEN, $IPOC, $IPOD, $IPOE, $IPOF)

iRobot ($IRBT) – Ceiling: So much optionality in home robotics + AI to boost growth. Floor: Premium brand, profitable, good balance sheet.

Upwork ($UPWK) and Fiverr ($FVRR) – Marketplaces that win as freelancing and the gig economy take off. Upwork has more sales now, but Fiverr has more recent growth.

Redfin ($RDFN) and Zillow ($ZG/$Z) – Disrupting traditional real estate agents with optionality to extract value in all aspects of the home buying/selling process.

Beyond Meat ($BYND) – Aggressively building distribution and brand for its plant-based meat (similarly impressed by Impossible Foods, but it’s private). The traditional meat industry is a trillion-dollar space.

1/15
By now you have undoubtedly seen the craziness going on in the stock market, with a selection of stocks surging hundreds if not thousands of percent in a matter of days or even hours, along with a whole bunch of financial jargon. So what exactly is going on? #velshi

2/15
One major term you have heard is "shorting" - which is just placing a bet that a stock will go down in price. #velshi

3/15
An investor can make money on this type of gamble by borrowing shares from a broker, w/o initially paying for them, selling them immediately & then later buying the shares at a lower price & returning them to the broker, keeping the difference in price as profit. #velshi

4/15
For example, an investor borrows 1 share of stock XYZ at $200 & sells it. The investor now has $200 at an initial cost of $0. However, the investor stills owes the broker that 1 share. #velshi

5/15
The gamble is that the price of the stock XYZ will go down - let's say to $100 a share. The investor can then buy the 1 share that it owes the broker at that lower $100 price. #velshi

A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %

gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%

To be a good public investor, you don’t need to be a genius or own a crystal ball but you do have to make a few big calls.

2/ In my case, I started in January of 2000, was up 20pct after the first month, and thinking this was pretty easy. Then the nasdaq dropped from 5000 to below 1000. That was a proper wake up call!

3/ I only made 2 big calls in the first 10 years or so but those were enough. If 90pct of your book goes up 8pct/year (historical public returns) and 10pct doubles, then you are up twice as much as the market and that’s a big number as it compounds.

4/ My first big call was recognizing the bubble in 2000. It took me 12 months but I was ready for 2001/2 once I understood how the excessive financing of dot.coms would eventually affect hardware and semiconductor companies. Seeing how the cobweb ties all the players was helpful.

5/ I missed the rally post 2003 but then stumbled on Apple computer in 2007. At the time I was very annoyed because I had dismissed the iPod and the stock had moved from $25 to $100 (or $1 to $4 post 28-1 splits)

This is your daily pension announcement. The Travis goes balls to the wall edition! It has been a busy week in pensions, so I will again dive into the dung heap with an open mouth. First up Mark (AIMCO Chair) makes a statement...#ABLeg #handsoffmypension

Read it carefully, because most of what he wrote is true.

"These factors define the success of the Canadian model of pension management." True. But he needs to acknowledge that ATRF had for generations contributed to the success of the Canadian pension model. #ABLeg #AMCOfail

The real humdinger is:
"The terms and conditions included in the Ministerial Orders are in the best interest of both AIMCo and its clients and clearly align interests."

Nope. That is why 0 out of 4 pension plans have signed an agreement. Take that to your MLA. #ABLeg #handsoff

The terms and conditions contained are egregious and irresponsible. They erode the responsibility of ATRF. But AIMCO doesn't give a shit because they knew if they run out the clock Travis will make it law anyway.

Mark knew that Travis is AIMCO's lackey. #ABLeg

Mark should have learned from his predecessor. Stay out of Alberta politics. Getting involved will lead to no good.

These investment management agreements need to be written on a commercially reasonable basis. Which would include the ability to fire them if required. #ABLeg

Friday Alpha!

Let's Talk $LRC

1/ #ETH fees are painful these days. Anyone who interacts with #DeFi has tears in their eyes when approving a transaction.

2/ Thankfully there are projects like @loopringorg that build the 2nd layer atop of which we can trade our magical tokens in a decentralized manner.

As part of our Knowledge sharing initiative by @FinnacleAcademy and @Investmentbook1, here we are on our post 2 with some of the most important key takeaways of the book “Masterclass with super investors” by @vishalmittal22 & @basrars

Here we go! (1/n)

Masterclass with super investors is one of the best books covering the investment strategies & journey of renowned domestic investors. Our summary has been segregated in 2 parts, A) Common traits in investment ideologies of these stalwarts B) Investor specific key takeaways (2/n)

A)Let's look at a few common points in these Stalwarts' investment ideologies 1)Invest (higher % of portfolio) when you have conviction backed by sound logic 2)You need to be bullish on India to make investments in Indian cos. bcoz majority of Indian cos. are domestically focused

3. New Bull markets have new leaders when a bull markets ends the stocks which have gained the most falls the most 4. The entry price that you pay for a company should be very cheap so that even if your assumptions go wrong in future you don't end up losing money (4/n)

5. We get attached to stocks which have given us a lot of returns in past even though in current & future expected scenarios they seem overvalued 6. Focus on art of disciplined selling-it's imp. to have a sound selling mechanism just buying at right price wont create wealth.(5/n)

A thread on $TSLA / $TSLAQ the stock in 2020:
Don’t retweet this, @gordonjohnson19 would not like the unit of #Gordon to trend. /2

/2 Some of you may ask: “What is a #Gordon?”
This used to be easy to answer. @gordonjohnson19 was famous for his bearish price target on $TSLA: $ 87. Prior to the 5/1 split. /3

/3 His price target (one #Gordon) translated into $17.40 post split. That price target was supposed to be the real value of the stock, those targets are usually for a twelve month timeframe: @Tesla the company ~ 1 #Gordon. /4

/4 One #Gordon wasn’t meant to tell us by how much the stock would rise every 10 days in 2020, but it ended up doing just that: $TSLA started the year at $86.05 or $430.25 pre split. It ended the year at $705.67, hence went up $619.62 ($3,098.10) or 35.6 #Gordon. /5

/5 So on average $TSLA added almost 1 #Gordon every 10 days. That’s despite falling to it’s annual relativ low on March 20th. /6

Stocks to Watch 2021 - Full Analysis Blog Thread

$TDOC* $PINS* $CRWD* $FSLY* $NET $APPS $DDOG* $U $PTON $ROKU* $ZM* $DOCU $CRM $UBER* $ABNB

* = Stocks I own

https://t.co/XrJo0vxb13

Detailed analysis for each individual stock is within this thread, via screenshot from the blog

1) $TDOC - $199.96

2) $PINS - $65.90

3) $CRWD - $211.82

4) $FSLY - $87.37

More thoughts on $FISV following investor day last week

This time focused on the newly named FinTech segment: core account processing and digital banking arm of legacy Fiserv

TLDR: While it’s the smallest segment (~20% of FISV revenue), it’s the “glue” that ties things together

1) $FISV FinTech segment is the #1 provider of core processing and digital banking solutions to the ~11,000 banks and credit unions in the US

Its mission critical systems power 3,700 FIs:
- core processor for 1 out of every 3 banks
- digital offering for 95 out of top 100 banks

2) This segment dates back to the origins of $FISV, and today it’s the market share leader with nearly 40% of all US banks relying on FISV to power everything from new account opening, items processing, online/mobile banking, regulatory compliance, general ledger/reporting, etc

3) Not just the market leader, $FISV is also has a best-in-class offering

Well regarded Aite Group rates it better than nearest competitors $FIS $JKHY

Today, these 3 dominate the market and maintain an oligopoly structure, with various other point solutions pretty far behind

4) $FIS skews larger multinational banks (2x+ as many $10B+ banks as FISV/JKHY combined) and $JKHY is 1,700+ community/credit unions

However, the sweet spot for $FISV is $1-50B banks (now 500+ as clients) while also maintaining a strong base of 3,200+ community/credit unions