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$Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11$

Lyman Stone 石來民
@lymanstoneky 5 years, 10 months ago 1037 views

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Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

The Great Man theory of history.... turns out to have some pretty strong statistical support. https://t.co/HIdtRvMSVk

School closures had NO EFFECT (precise null!) on socioeconomic outcomes and future schooling behavior during the 1918 pandemic. https://t.co/VLlGt79wi1

The authors note that school closures were not as long back then.

But also school calendars were far shorter. So idk how it shakes out.

Informing men about the odds their wife will die in childbirth reduces fertility, increases marital satisfaction, and reduces mismatch in fertility preferences within couples (in Zambia). https://t.co/8qF2hn2rwD

This is a neat possible channel for the education-fertility linkage. The effect size they observe is yuuuuuuge.

People with Facebook friends in areas with high COVID cases, and who saw more FB posts about folks getting sick and hospitalized, did more social distancing and were less likely to post about reopening. https://t.co/vze86IGjc4

This is a pretty strong argument that the media should have been broadcasting more images and videos of human suffering in hospitals and elsewhere and fewer videos of wait lines for grocery stores.

This paper also shows an educational reform altering attitudes towards cousin marriage and also reducing its frequency: https://t.co/x2CB7TE7dA

More from Lyman Stone 石來民

$Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11$

Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky

After a couple years of ads telling men to do laundry turned out, weirdly, to not boost fertility, Korea is back to financial incentives, which prior research has shown do work but at a very high price.

Korea is adding a $275/month allowance for the first year of a baby's life, increasing the pregnancy medical benefit by $400 or so, and providing an $1800 baby bonus. There's also some unspecified benefits related to leave and high-parity families.

The thing to understand is that these efforts are not *actually* huge. Quoting things in won gives you big numbers so it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we're not talking about enough money to actually offset a large share of wages.

I'm a fan of baby bonuses and first-year benefits. They're probably the most bang for the buck.

But this isn't actually all that many bucks!

These benefits add up to about $5,500 in benefits. A similar program compared to average incomes in the US would be about $8,700.

$Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11$

Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky

Ulysses S. Grant would like a WORD

Hogan Gidley: Trump is "the most masculine person to ever hold the White House as the president of the United States" https://t.co/fcoYWyaEhz
— Eliza Relman (@eliza_relman) January 11, 2021

Or Teddy Roosevelt. Or Dwight Eisenhower. Or Andrew Jackson. Or Abraham Lincoln. Or George Washington. Or Zachary Taylor. Or any of numerous presidents who were honest-to-goodness battle-hardened warriors.

James Monroe fought the Hessians at Trenton and nearly died of wounds sustained there, then wintered in Valley Forge, then fought until Monmouth, then repeatedly tried to raise new regiments for the war until he went bankrupt doing it.

James Monroe, of the Era of Good Feelings, longest serving president of all time.... was in the boats crossing the icy Delaware.

Andrew Jackson was in a duel. He was shot in the chest right by his heart.

But he didn't go down. He stood there and, while bleeding out, steadily took aim and killed the dude who shot him.

Stone cold.

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$Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11$

Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky

reading the self-important and vaguely-cultish textbooks by bayesians makes me want to go out and kill a sufficiently large number of bayesians that i can estimate the mean pitch of their screams

"when we have multiple models, we should choose one using Bayesian statistics"

no

you should do both and publish an appendix showing robustness tests, you cultist

"but my bayesian model takes 4 weeks to process i can't run 1,397 robustness tests"

yes

exactly

"it's #Actually impossible to use predictive accuracy to test model validity because we can't observe future values!!!"

omg

this is a real critically acclaimed textbook im barely even paraphrasing here

i don't trust quantitative methods where people say, "this method has been in use for centuries!"

that is a solid argument for perhaps a theological proposition

it is not highly compelling for code

$Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11$

Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky

Conservatives love to complain about the media.

But there's an inside baseball media that reveals how destructive the conservative media criticism environment can be to the conservative movement.

Enter, Fox News:

The story is pretty simple.

On election night, Fox News called Arizona very early. This surprised pretty much everyone. The Fox News team had improved their election model in 2020, and was confident their call was correct, even if unconventional.

Controversially, however, they called it for Joe Biden. Arizona has historically been a red state, and the polls (and final result) were close there. Nobody had a really strong expectation it was gonna go for Biden until Fox News just.... called it.

This hurled Trump surrogates into a desperate place. If they lost *Arizona*, that was a bad sign for the night. More importantly, it happened before midnight: it humiliated the President while millions were still watching.

The Trump campaign immediately turned on a dime. They pivoted from "Look, we're crushing it with Hispanics! Massive turnout! Incredible performance!" to "The election was stolen."

Who stole the election changed over time. Fox News. Some rando in Atlanta. Poll workers. China.

$Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11$

Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky

So a few days back I was tweeting about SSRIs. The big question with these drugs is: why do controlled trials routinely show such small effects when practitioners and patients report life-changingly-large effects?

So first off, at this point the evidence is pretty clear that SSRIs and other anti-anxiety/anti-depression drugs truly don't do very much. Their average effects are beneath clinical significance, as I tweeted about here:

What's the best recent empirical assessment of SSRI/SNRI effectiveness which deals with heterogeneity and long-term effects in a plausible way?
— Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11 (@lymanstoneky) December 4, 2020

Basically, the problem these drugs face is that while they actually see relatively LARGE effects.... but that placebos in those trials ALSO see large effects (and most untreated depression improves within a year anyways).

So basically you have this problem where:
1. The condition tends to improve on its own in a majority of cases
2. Placebo effects for the condition are unusually large

Which means the large crude effects of SSRIs get swamped.

So that raises two new questions.
1. (Not my focus here) Are we treating these conditions appropriately given their untreated prognosis is usually (though certainly not always!!) "goes away in a few months"?

2. Why are placebo effects so unusually large?

More from Trading

Trader knight
@Traderknight007

How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,

You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.

If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet

$Cem Karsan \U0001f950$

Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant

1/x Vanna is back & ready to turn back on the charm! Overnight the market hit our weeklong target of **3705 and pulled back... We were able to take profits & play for a bit of morning digestion. It’s been a nice +3.5% in a week w/a few extra scalps along the way...But the best

2/x part has been the gift of Vol compression, which along w/ short Vol profits, has given us significant calendar expansion & dispersion opps, as predicted. I expect this to continue this week as well, as Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force until 12/11.This,

3/x paired w/ the significantly increasing Vanna & Charm flows, will make it hard for any decline until 12/14 to catch meaningful momentum. This said, the narrowing of 20 day RVol as well as the 2 stddev of the 20 day just overhead should cap any rallies, given the dramatically

4/x overextended retail (8-day SMA of P/C equity is the lowest in 20 years) & institutional positioning. This push/pull, should ultimately keep the market fairly pinned this week...Jan 8th call’s on back are incredibly cheap w/ a GA runoff event straddle of only $55, which given

5/x the potential macro-cyclical consequences of the next 2 years of fiscal stimulus seems absurd...& In terms of a more short term trade,Tesla Vol is either too high or 12/18 on back calendar spreads in the SPX are too low, as there’s no premium being priced in for the inclusion

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$Emperor\U0001f451$

Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC

Technical Analysis Masterclass- Part 2

'Entering the trade'

Entering a trade without ascertaining a certain things is gambling.

In this masterclass we will learn the pre-requisites to enter a trade.

DON'T ENTER A TRADE WITHOUT DETERMINNG THE FOLLOWING.

Please share.

We understand what reward to risk (popularly called risk to reward) is.
It will be denoted by R:R.

We will also try to bust a few myths about R:R and how to avoid losing trades.

Before entering a trade, you need to determine 3 things.

1. Entry trigger
2. Stop loss
3. Target

1. Entry trigger = Reasons for entering a trade. There could be multiple reasons or a single reason for entry.

Generally a set of reasons AKA confluence is a higher probability trade and a generally a safer entry.

Example of an entry trigger.

2. Stop Loss.

The price in the opposite direction of the trade where the trade is exited, at a loss.

At this level, the reason for the entry becomes invalidated according to TA and the price can then move in the opposite direction, probabilistically.

3. Target is the possible price level that the asset might touch based on previous trends or confluence AND where a possible reversal could occur.

Target is the next path of least resistance from where the price might reverse.

We will always ONLY use TA to determine all 3.

il Capo Of Ethereum
@CryptoCapo_

As a former professional poker player, I'm very clear about the importance of psychology in investing/trading.

You can have a very solid strategy, but if the mental aspect fails, everything fails, no matter how good you are.

Thread 👇

In this thread I will briefly describe the most important aspects of trading psychology, and give some simple tips to try to improve them.

It's good to always be aware of these aspects, to be able to detect them and act in time.

1) FEAR

This is one of the most important. It can make you get out of a position at the wrong time.

One of the main reasons you can have fear is because you are putting more at risk than you are willing to lose.

Tip: reduce the size of your position until you are comfortable.

2) GREED

Greed can be even worse than fear. It leads you to be overpositioned and to destroy your average entry.

Tip: learn to conform to what you have. Practice gratitude for everything that comes your way. Remember that the most important thing is to stay in the game.

3) TILT

This is well known in poker. There are many reasons why tilt can appear (downswings, injustice, mistakes...)

Tilt takes you away from your perfect strategy. From your A game.

After a losing streak you may think that the market is being unfair to you.

Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal

I spent over 100 hours studying the best patterns in Technical Analysis taught to me by @niki_poojary.

Turns out, patterns trading is simple—if you follow these 8 Patterns:

Let's start: ↓

While studying her Twitter profile and with constant talks with her, I found these to be the most important patterns she focuses on always.

Then I wrote a small summary of what each pattern means.

Also attached are some examples from her tweets.

1/ Cup and handle Pattern

Happens during an uptrend.

The cup portion has a U-shaped appearance.

The bears are getting weaker as they are unable to drive the prices below the last low.

Subhasish Pani uses this a lot in stocks to spot bullish trades.

5: When to play directional:

Whenever the index is moving in a single direction, its important to go with the trend.

A few weeks ago when BNF broke out of the cup and handle pattern, all we had to do was sell PEs.

Pls note: weekly TF chart is attached to just show the C&H BO pic.twitter.com/z0wgUzJW8t
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) December 18, 2022

Eg

#VOLTAS Another cup & handle pattern for cash positional pic.twitter.com/Jsc99xJfwY
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) October 23, 2019

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Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

महाभारत की कहानी कौन नहीं जानता।लेकिन क्या आपको पता है कि महाभारत के ज्यादातर पात्र किसी न किसी श्राप में फंसे थे।अगर ये श्राप न होते तो कदाचित महाभारत की कहानी कुछ और होती।हिन्दु पौराणिक ग्रंथों में विभिन्न श्रापों का वर्णन मिलता है व हर श्राप के पीछे कोई कहानी अवश्य होती है।

आइए आज जानते हैं महाभारत कथा में वर्णित कुछ श्रापों के बारे में।

1) राजा पाण्डु को ऋषि किन्दम का श्राप

एकबार महाराज पाण्डु शिकार खेलने वन गए।झाडियों के पीछे कुछ हिल रहा था। मृग है सोचकर राजा ने बाण चलाया जो जाकर ऋषि किन्दम और उनकी पत्नी को लगा।वे दोनो रति-क्रीड़ा में लिप्त थे।

जब राजा ने उन्हें देखा तो बहुत दुखी हुए कि ये मुझसे क्या पाप हो गया।बहुत क्षमा याचना के बाद भी किन्दम ऋषि ने पाण्डु को श्राप दे दिया कि जब भी वो किसी स्त्री को काम भावना से स्पर्श करेंगे उसी क्षण उनकी मृत्यु हो जाएगी।पश्चाताप करने, वे सिंहासन पे अन्धे राजा धृतराष्ट्र को बैठाकर...

..स्वयं अपनी रानियों कुंती व माद्री के साथ वन चले गए।पांडवों का जन्म भी कुंती को ऋषि दुर्वासा द्वारा दिए गए मंत्र से हुआ था जिसमे किसी भी देव का स्मरण कर उस देव से कुंती,पुत्र प्राप्त कर सकती थी।एक बार माद्री पे मोहित हो जब पांडु ने उसे स्पर्श किया,उसी क्षण पांडु की मृत्यु होगयी।

2) उर्वशी का अर्जुन को श्राप

महाभारत युद्ध से पहले जब अर्जुन दिव्यास्त्र प्राप्त करने स्वर्ग गए तो वहां उर्वशी नाम की अप्सरा उन पर मोहित हो गयी। अर्जुन ने जब उन्हें अपनी माता के समान बताया तो यह सुनकर उर्वशी क्रोधित हो गयी और अर्जुन को श्राप दे डाला कि तुम नपुंसक की भांति...

Delilah S. Dawson
@DelilahSDawson

So here is a secret: Not everything I write goes anywhere. I have at least 4 books completely written and edited that never went on submission. I have books that stalled out at 20k. I have docs on my computer with opening paragraphs I don't remember writing. But! 1/

Every now and then an idea sticks with me like that corner of tortilla chip that just won't go down your throat. It happened with SPARROWHAWK, which began as 40k of a YA story, died, and was reborn as a comic, thanks to @christopher_j_r and @boomstudios. And now... 2/

It's happening with THE WILLOWS, a short story that you'll see in @UncannyMagazine next year. This Southern Gothic horror story began as an attempt to sell my next Romance to @AbZurdity after the Blud books in 2014 or so. And she didn't buy it. Guess why? 3/

Turns out, it wasn't a Romance! It was Southern Gothic Horror. Even the bones of it screamed strangeness, not sexiness. I loved the taste of the world, but I hadn't found the right story yet. Tried to write it 2 more times and failed. Until I finally understood what it was. 4/

So I took the 50 pages I'd written and cut half of them, twisting the story around from a gothy Romance inspired by the band the Civil Wars and turned it into a spooky descent into madness. And it looked back at me from the abyss as if to say, DUH. Sometimes... 5/

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William
@wimgz

🛠️ OPEN BUSINESS IDEAS 🛠️

Below a list of business/product ideas I had or read about.

They are worthless if they remain ideas and if you don't overcome the challenges in building them, so feel free to copy / tweak / implement them!
👇

Better: use one and make a MVP during the #24hrstartup challenge!

😻 Product Hunt Time
A clock that displays the time it is @ProductHunt
Also displays what you should do and where you should post, at each specific time during your launch

🚧 IndieCrunch - VC free tech news
Techcrunch but only for bootstrapped companies

🎧 Kickstarter for audiobooks
A lot of awesome books are not available as audio.
Crowdfund the money to buy the audio rights + a voice actor

WAKE UP AUSTRALIA WAKE...
@WakeAustralia

Facebook originally a CIA program called "LifeLog".
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win

https://t.co/enzOXDCogV

Project: Lifelog

Started by DARPA in 1999, the goal of Lifelog was to create a database on civilians without their knowledge, and track everything they do.

The project "ended" on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook began the exact same day.

The CIA funneled tens of millions into Facebook. pic.twitter.com/r7hwF0v9kh
— Robert Horan (@Robby12692) December 13, 2018

Pentagon Kills LifeLog

Buzz Chronicles
@buzz_chronicles

@SaveToBookmarks Namaste! You can find it here. Original tweet by @AchuthArora: "@OllieEmberson @buzz_chronicles @rattibha @SaveToBookmarks save as Workouts". Thanks! ✌

Hi! Pleasure is mine. Original tweet by @SaveToBookmarks: "@AchuthArora @OllieEmberson @buzz_chronicles @rattibha Cool mate!

I saved this ...". See You soon! 👌

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