CritRats!

I think AI risk is a real existential concern, and I claim that the CritRat counterarguments that I've heard so far (keywords: universality, person, moral knowledge, education, etc.) don't hold up.

Anyone want to hash this out with

For instance, while I heartily agree with lots of what is said in this video, I don't think that the conclusion about how to prevent (the bad kind of) human extinction, with regard to AGI, follows.

https://t.co/nbXUsXvcmW
There are a number of reasons to think that AGI will be more dangerous than most people are, despite both people and AGIs being qualitatively the same sort of thing (explanatory knowledge-creating entities).
And, I maintain, that because of practical/quantitative (not fundamental/qualitative) differences, the development of AGI / TAI is very likely to destroy the world, by default.
(I'm not clear on exactly how much disagreement there is. In the video above, Deutsch says "Building an AGI with perverse emotions that lead it to immoral actions would be a crime."
I wouldn't usually put it in those words, but THAT is what the alignment problem is about:

We don't yet know how to reliably build AGI systems _without_ "perverse emotions." It seems like that might be pretty hard to avoid.)
But maybe I'm misunderstanding these arguments.

I would love to dig into this with someone who thinks that AI is not a serious existential risk for reasons related to the above, and together try and answer the question of how these AI is most likely to go.
My win conditions:

1. I change my mind about AI risk, in some way
2. I understand some new-to-me argument that I need to think about in depth
3. I viscerally "get" what I'm missing from the CritRat frame
4. There's a public refutation of the arguments that turn out to be flawed
Here's @reasonisfun vouching for me.

https://t.co/N3S5mER8Z9
I'm happy to talk to you even if your view is not fully representative of "all Critical Rationalists".
@DavidDeutschOxf @iamFilos @campeters4 @MatjazLeonardis @sashintweets @HermesofReason @adilzeshan @thenumber8008 @mansfield_pablo
@DorfGinger @ks445599 @jchalupa_ @RealtimeAI @JimiSommer @chuggfest
Feel free to share with whoever is most likely to be interested.
Feel free to DM me, if you're interested.

More from Eli Tyre

My catch all thread for this discussion of AI risk in relation to Critical Rationalism, to summarize what's happened so far and how to go forward, from here.

I started by simply stating that I thought that the arguments that I had heard so far don't hold up, and seeing if anyone was interested in going into it in depth with


So far, a few people have engaged pretty extensively with me, for instance, scheduling video calls to talk about some of the stuff, or long private chats.

(Links to some of those that are public at the bottom of the thread.)

But in addition to that, there has been a much more sprawling conversation happening on twitter, involving a much larger number of people.

Having talked to a number of people, I then offered a paraphrase of the basic counter that I was hearing from people of the Crit Rat persuasion.

More from Society

I’ll address every nonsense argument and lie used to defend the suicidal gender ideology Thats in vogue today:

3:45 - “So what if you don’t have gametes?”

It’s called a birth defect. You’re still male or female.


~5:00 *nonsense trying to say the sexes of seahorses could be swapped coz male carry the eggs*

male doesn’t produce eggs, he produces the sperm. He’s still the male. If I impregnated a chick then carried the amniotic sac in a backpack ‘til the baby was done I’ll still be male🤦‍♂️

5:10 - we could say there’s 4 sexes of fruit fly cause there’s 3 producers of different sized sperm

No. They’re still producing sperm. They’re males. This is idiotic. Is this whole video like this? (Probably. 99% likely. Abandon hope.)

~6:10 - hermaphroditism and sequential hermaphroditism exists therefore....

No. Some animals being hermaphrodites, which is meaningless w/o the existence of binary sex to contrast it to, still doesn’t make gender ideology or transgenderism valid.

Intersex ≠ transgenderism 🙄

6:20 - bilateral gynandromorphism is a disorder in some species (not in humans). Has nothing to do w/ “gender” or transgenderism.

Ova-testes in humans are also a disorder, usually found in those w/ the karyotype disorders that you ppl also try to appropriate (extra X’s/Y’s).

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