Quick Summary of @Arthur_0x on the FTX Podcast. How he made an 80x return on his fund in 2 years of Defi investing. 0/8👇

1/ Look for projects that have resilient founders that don’t give up. $SNX and $AAVE survived the last bear market and adapted to make the most of the the Defi market as it took off.

2/ Look for big brain discussions early on with intellectually curious developers. Interestingly he cites Hal Finneys thought experiments on Bitcoins Total Addressable Market on Bitcointalk. Link

3/ Community focus. SNX reacted well to a frontrunning issue by Airdropping to those affected. @kaiynne stepping back shows how it is community managed now.

4/ Focus on fundamentals and be active. Look to help teams and you will build a reputation and get more information as a result. Being active also means using the app an seeing some evidence of traction. Become a power user.

Grab a coffee. This thread will be informative & long.

An exchange infrastructure that offers ZERO trading fees and DEEP liquidity - Meet @wootraderS

In a way, Wootrade is to exchanges what #Ethereum is to #DApps 🔥

..And they have a token, $WOO

Here are my findings👇

Wootrade was incubated by Kronos Research. (Similar to $FTX being incubated by @SBF_Alameda )

Kronos Research is a quantitative investment research institution.

Its daily volume is over $1 billion!

Wootrade offers traders, institutions and exchanges deep orderbooks and best trade execution.

The problem: Exchanges have to pay high costs for market makers.

The solution: Wootrade removes that need for them + lets their clients enjoy trading free of charge.

Exchanges need to stake a tiered amount of $WOO for some of the usage.

This generally offsets the costs for market makers. Plus, exchanges earn staking rewards from the token!

Here are some that use it already: @MXC_Exchange, @Hoo_exchange, @gate_io.

Look at the spreads of Hoo after implementing Wootrade.

They're super thin!

1/ Since Dec, $TWTR stock has grown 50% above all-time highs. Lots has been said about Twitter’s product upside, ability to capture more of the value it creates (see @Post_Market @juliey4 @modestproposal1). I want to talk about the biggest bull thesis I see: cultural determinism

2/ I'm a huge believer in cultural determinism (see Nintendo essay) - who a company is/been trained ‘to be’ in turn decides who a company ‘will’ or ‘can’ be.

CD is distinct from whether a culture is good, employees talented, committed to change,

3/ By the early 2010s, Twitter began to solidify cultural premises: it was focused on building up ad revenues rather than maximizing reach or users/its network, building a self-contained ecosystem, and in my view, a misplaced obsession with “live”

4/ This contrasted with competitors focused on network growth (FB), product enhancements (Snap), total creators (YT, Unity). Instead, Twitter throttled APIs and 3P devs, ignored opportunity to be a standard protocol for internet comms (h/t @AVC in

5/ How did we see this? Lots of externally focused product investments – e.g. SeeIt TV Everywhere authentication experience w/ Comcast, helping TV networks integrate Tweets into live TV, allowing advertisers to buy Twitter adds… through Google

Thread on sideways market:

Sideways price action or consolidation is a phase where institutional players are silently building their positions transacting in smaller quantities.

(1/n)

What we need to understand is that big players have huge amounts of money and one major disadvantage of having such large cap is that they cannot transact in big quantities without being spotted (aka volumes)

In order to minimize this disadvantage to an extent, they will begin building their positions with many smaller blocks of orders to look like multiple small players and to not alert other market participants much.

This kind of price action does not result in major market moves since moving markets requires aggressive buying/selling at market prices.

Instead it results in a sideways price action.

When their positions are built, aggressive activity begins which results in markets moving in a trend. First positions are built slowly and then markets are moved aggressively in the favorable direction to get profitable.

Full chart learning course 🎓
In single thread 🧵

Process of trading through
price action ✨👇

1⃣Time frame - always start looking chart 📊 with higher time frame (weekly/monthly) then after go for lower one .

Positional trader - weekly/monthly

Swing trader - daily /3hours

Intraday trader - 15/30min

2⃣ demand /supply zone - then draw major/minor demand & supply zone .।।।

Ex : #SIS

3️⃣ Trading style -

⚡If you are positional trader then focus on major demand & supply zone.

⚡If you are swing trader then focus on minor demand & supply zone.

Wait for price to come on it then, 👇

4⃣find consolidation -

⚡Positional trader - consolidation should be above 1/2years.

⚡ swing trader - consolidation should be below 1/2 years

⚡Intraday trader - consolidation should above 5/10 days.

Ex - #galxo / #triveni / #vimta

THREAD: COUNTERFEIT STOCKS

There are four major players in the industry: Hedge funds, prime brokers, the DTCC, and the SEC.

Hedge funds and the SEC you know of, but the DTCC and prime brokers are important.

Prime brokers are relatively simple - they’re brokers that can clear their own transactions by way of moving actual shares between their clients.

The big prime brokers are ones you’ve heard of - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, Citigroup, etc. - big, big companies.

These prime brokers in turn collectively own the Depository Trust Clearing Corp - DTCC.

The DTCC is an almost impenetrable, behemoth corporation that clears near a billion shares a day and accounts for a vast majority of the clearing house activity in the US market. This is the corporation that ACTUALLY holds physical shares - all your “shares” are on their books

The DTCC is (this will be important later) nearly impossible to get information out of, and it takes an act of Congress or a subpoena to get them to talk on anything.

Analyzed last 12 years of historical data to check if there are any patterns we can observe to find the best time to invest in stocks for long term. #Nifty50 #investing #stocks 1/10

This is how Nifty moved in last 15 years with three major corrections, in the year 2008,then around 2016 and then year 2020 due to Coronavirus. Only when we look back with hindsight bias we could say those were the best time to invest. But is there really any quantitative method?

200 day moving average is something that is widely used by many investors to check for long term trend. Where investors consider if stocks trades above 200 DMA, its in bullish phase and if it trades below 200 DMA its in bearish phase.

We shall run an analysis to find out of Nifty 50 stocks, how many number of stocks trades above 200 day moving average, higher the number, stronger the market. we need correct data, we cannot test it with current Nifty 50 stocks,

we need list of Nifty 50 stocks that are part of index historically, so when we run for Jan 2008, stocks like RPL, RNRL, UNITECH were part of Nifty 50, so it is essential to test it with correct datasets.

GameStop hearing has begun here, I'll be intermittently live tweeting if anything interesting

One thing so far, Waters announces this is the first of a series of hearings, and future ones will include regulators and policy discussions.

Remarkable pronunciation of "Dough-GEE-coin" from ranking member Patrick McHenry (R-NC)

McHenry taking the pose of a futurist triumphalist lauding the glories of financial innovation, tinged with a little populism

"We can't lock investors out of the rich possibilities of useless over-speculation!" McHenry, approximately

Why 90% of the traders even after winning 90% of the times gives it back to the markets?

Has this ever happened to you, That you are up 10% on the month and you feel crazy, but the next morning you give it all back to the markets?

What Causes You to Give It All Back?

Thread-

1. Euphoria-

It is the state of mind in which we can not perceive risk, In state of euphoria nothing can go wrong.

So when you are in this state of mind, you feel invincible and there is nothing in the world which can stop you from making money.

That’s why when most of the traders after a winning streak put a Huge position and then Boom, all the luck goes for a toss.

Think about it why most of the traders loose big money when the market starts to go in bear mode from bullish mode, because

when the markets are in a bull market, even if you take trades based on your neighbor recommendation most of them will be right

"Felling too good is not good for your trading"

Winning gives you dopamine rush, And when you trading to get right often you are just feeding your ego

The evolved trader recognizes that winning simply means that you landed on the right side of probability. That’s all. There is no reason to get excited.

It’s just probability and you have an edge that gives you an advantage in the randomness of probability.

https://t.co/Cqqb7aLZVp

Gold and silver have been total dogs these last six months. BTC has just outperformed. I attribute this to Wil Self and his Quantity Theory of Insanity.

That there is, after all, a finite set of molecules in the universe of alternative assets - the last hold out for those seeking diversification.

My interpretation is that investing in this sector is analogous to growing followers on my Instagram account - that just as one group’s starting to get it another are unsubscribing...

In this world, and maybe it’s just for the moment, but Peter gotta pay Paul, ‘cause there’s only a limited amount of sanity remaining in the world. So, when @ScottMinerd says theoretically BTC can go to $400k, i.e., 10 x higher than now...

Letter from the stock markets to the sceptics: "I may be high, but I'm not crazy." Caution, this thread may not age well, but I didn't really write it :).

~Thread from a twitter economist.

They world is in one of the biggest crisis since the 2nd world war, but the stock markets seem to be on a relentless upward move. They appear completely divorced from reality. Really? Probably not. Here are reasons why the markets may be euphoric, but aren't crazy or stupid.

a) Lot of liquidity provided by central banks to rescue failing businesses - globally. Central banks and governments buying all kinds of securities including junk bonds directly!

b) Much of the western world is in the arena of 0 or negative interest rates, and anything which moves (above 0 returns) looks tasty enough to be eaten (bought)

c) The Sensex is just around 10% up from its January levels - so not really frothy territory (if you were to ignore the epidemic)

A Bloomberg article today reported that human-run hedge funds trounced quants in 2020 - a turnaround from the experience of recent years. Renaissance Technologies - run by Jim Simons - saw its Institutional Diversified Alpha & Global Equities funds fall by 32% and 31%

The fundamental problem with computer/AI driven trading strats is - and always has been - that the models will never be capable of evaluating novel situations which have not happened before. This was undoing of LTCM, as well as port. insurance which caused 1987 stockmarket crash.

A global pandemic was not in the past datasets, so the bots don't know what to do. AI is only good where you have sizeable and complete datasets that can 'train' the AI to recognized statistical patterns too complex for humans to extract, and use it to make accurate predictions.

This works phenomenally well in situations that regularly recur within the bounds of a confined range of possible outcomes, but it is prone to disastrous error where discontinuities can occur where outcomes can suddenly bear no resemblance to outcomes in past datasets.

How do you teach an AI to determine if there is a cat in photo? You 'train' it by showing it millions of photos labelled by humans that tell the AI whether there was in fact a cat in it or not. The AI pick ups statistical regularities & uses to make inferences on new photos.

Have you ever wondered why price of large cap cos like Reliance ind. Ltd. or Apple inc. fluctuates less in magnitude but share price of a small cap co witnesses huge volatility?
A simple thread to explain the economics behind stock fluctuations!👇🧵
#investing #financialliteracy

1. Penny stocks show huge volatility but on the other hand stock of large cap companies show little fluctuations.
Did you ever observe how ‘Foreign Exchange’ rates show little fluctuation and are range bound?
Let us understand the economics behind it.

2. In this thread we will learn two things,
👉Why large companies show quick change in their prices though the magnitude of change is less?
👉What causes huge jump in prices of penny stocks? Or why on a bad day they can easily fall with huge magnitude?

3. First things first. Let us understand who decides the price of goods? Is it the ‘Buyer(s)’ or the ‘Seller(s)’?
The answer to this basic question is that price is decided by both of them.

This is because,
👉 A ‘Buyer’ would always be willing to buy any commodity at lesser price.
👉 A ‘Seller’, on the other hand would try to sell his product at a greater price.

1/ I used to think that the biggest gains had to come from stocks that no one knew about

One of the harder lessons for me to internalize has been that oftentimes, unknown stocks stay unknown for a reason and you can still earn attractive returns from stocks everyone's bullish on

2/ While I’m not contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian, I do think it’s important to question everything.

When I started out, I would buy "quality" stocks like FB or TSLA without doing much research.

But an opinion being consensus doesn’t make it the truth.

3/ So owning the most popular stocks made me nervous. If a winner is so obvious then either it's priced in or maybe I'm missing something?

I preferred owning stocks that others weren’t aware of or were bearish on for the wrong reasons (more room for upside surprises).

4/ But there are degrees

Despite being widely popular, stocks like SHOP have been some of the best performers because they exceeded even the most bullish projections

And some stocks like TSLA are partly popular because they are great consumer products which is an important sign

5/ On the other hand, while the biggest winners can be found in micro-caps, many of which started out very undervalued with no analyst coverage, on average, they tend to underperform larger caps

Picking out the big winners earlier on is very difficult and there is no set formula

Australian iron ore producer Fortescue (FMG AU) is a great example of how value investing often works in practice. In 2018 the stock was trading for A$4. It was cheap at spot iron ore - a mid single digit FCF multiple, even w historically high discounts on low-grade 58pc Fe (1/n)

The reason it was cheap was investors believed the increased 58pc discount was structural not cyclical, and benchmark iron ore prices of US$60-70/MT were not sustainable - Chinese demand would surely falter, and send prices down to US$40-50/MT (2/n).

I basically agreed with the market. That was also my expectation. But I decided to buy some anyway because I recognized I could be wrong, and if either iron ore prices stayed at US$60/MT or rose; OR 58pc discounts narrowed to historical levels, the stock would prove very cheap.

Meanwhile, the stock was fairly priced on the base case market expectation (mirroring my own), at perhaps a HSD FCF yield. Not many investors make an investment on the basis that they might be wrong, but I did due to (1) the asymmetry; and (2) the future being hard to predict.

So what happened? Unexpectedly, there was a Vale dam failure in Brazil, taking out several 10ms MT of supply. Chinese demand remained strong. 58pc discounts narrowed, and covid further interrupted Brazilian supply, while Chinese have stimulated infra to offset covid headwinds.

Since everyone from @GovAbbott to @DanCrenshawTX are continuing to pass off massive lies about the energy situation in Texas, let's look at it again. Because it's not wind that's the problem. It's profit-protecting "deregulation" and a perverse idea of the "free market." … 1/18

On Wed., millions of Texans are still without power. Meanwhile, Austin is expected to reach freezing just in time for a massive ice storm expected to bring down trees and powerlines. Plus, broken water lines everywhere. So clearly, the people in charge need a scapegoat. … 2/18

Fox News and GOP politicians—including Gov. Abbott — have been taking this “opportunity” to attack wind energy, call for the burning of more fossil fuels, and to make claims that green power is “deadly.” Surprise! They're lying. … 3/18

In 2003, Australia installed a pair of wind turbines at it’s Mawson Research Station in Antarctica. One of those turbines failed … after 14 years of operating in sub zero temperatures and winds over100 mph. The other turbine is still operating today. … 4/18

At the opposite end of the planet, wind turbines are operating at Svalbard, the most northerly town in the world. The fishing town of Havoysund, inside the Arctic Circle, runs on wind power. Greenland has been steadily moving to wind since 2008. … 5/18