Trading | Buzz Chronicles

1. I JUST RECENTLY BOUGHT $493,000 of $ROKU stock.

I missed the +217% one year run up in 2020. But as of today, I'm up about 27% for a 2 month hold so far.

Here's my extensive 25-post due diligence on #ROKU.

(read the full thread)

2. First, stop thinking of $ROKU as a hardware company.

STOP!

They started that way, but have shifted into a much more lucrative space - their 'Platform.'

More on that shortly.

Think of them as having part of their biz as hardware, but most of it as their Platform.

3. Most people I talk to say, "Why do I need #ROKU if my TV already has its own build in apps?"

I get it. People don't yet realize what ROKU offers. But they will. Just like people didn't understand other tech at the start (Paypal, Amazon, Netflix, etc.)

4. Beginnings - #ROKU is the japanese word for "6." CEO Anthony Wood named it this because it's his 6th company.

Anthony created the world's first DVR and then sold the company in 2002 and founded $ROKU.

He also worked as a VP at $NTFLX.

5. In 2008, $ROKU released the Netflix player.

Later they added more hardware: sticks, TVs, etc.

People still associate $ROKU as a hardware company.

They're missing the big picture. That's the BIGGEST confusion with $ROKU.

The play here is... "The Platform."

$Fabi\xe1n Flores-Jasso$

Fabián Flores-Jasso
@Fabian_Flores_J

1) Here is the thread I promised. It is going to a long read so I ask you to bear with me and be patient. I know most of you interested in $BNGO stock do not do genomics and feel intimidated by it so I will try to explain it using an analogy.

2) First, the Saphyr mapper is not a sequencer, it is, as its name say, a mapper. The difference of a genome sequence and a genome map is that the map aids to decipher the sequence more accurately (for sequence I refer to billions of ATCGATCG…).

3) A genome map is created before the sequencing begins and provides confidence in the sequence obtained. Therefore, the Saphyr mapper, does not compete or substitute any sequencing technology (either from $PACB, $ILMN, $TMO, etc.), but rather it is —COMPLEMENTARY— to it.

4) For an analogy, think of an any given address. Imagine I live at 14th Main street, Springfield, Massachusetts, USA. And someone asks me where I live, and I simply answer “Springfield”. If the person is local of Massachusetts, will probably assume that I live in Springfield MA.

5) However, if I’m asked in a state other than MA, and the person is from a state other than MA, will probably ask “which Springfield”, as there are many cities with this name in all USA; I would have to specify “Springfield, MA.”

Cold Blooded Shiller
@ColdBloodShill

**Thread**

The Chop.

The chop is brutal and I want to discuss more about what goes on inside a Traders mind when we form a choppy range and when we're inside a choppy range.

I hope you can take some lessons from this to adapt to these situations in the future.

RTs appreciated

The chop usually forms after strong moves in one direction or another, for this we'll keep the focus on BTC and use "up" as our direction for discussion.

So, $BTC rips higher, we're approaching ATH, you can't go wrong being long, then something changes.

As we move higher, as we approach key levels, your mindset changes. Sometimes you can feel invincible, you've simply had to push the green button for 2 weeks and you've been in profit.

Anticipation grows and dreams of smashing through ATH into new territory continue to build.

This is where the first issue comes in to play.

1. Overconfidence and the assumption that you have to be correct.

Your mindset begins to look like this. Everything is now skewed towards your confidence in breaking through $20,000. Everything sets up as an ATH break.

2. Absorption of Information.

At the same time as your own mind racing to higher targets. Twitter begins pouring fuel on the fire.

"Retail isn't even here yet!"
"Impulse from $20k could lead to $30k!"
"Can you imagine the liquidations above $20k?"

You're fed more information.

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

Excellent compilation of Forbes articles on Warren Buffet from 1969 to 2000s. h/t @valuewalk 👏

@dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

https://t.co/V7uTYjwSrn

Reading articles from the actual period (instead of books written after he was already widely famous) provides more interesting details on how his investing process evolved over the decades..

->Pure Balancesheet & Valuation based investing(50s/60s)

-> Purchases based on Intangibles/Brands & Moats (70s)

-> Convertible Stocks (80s)

-> Acquiring overall Companies (90s onwards)....

Few interesting quotes from the document.

“Investment is most intelligent when it is most business-like”—in other words, not swayed by emotions, hopes, fads.

“I think of it in terms of buying a whole company just as if I were buying the store down the street. If I were buying the store, I’d want to know all about it."

Mark Sumner
@Devilstower

Since everyone from @GovAbbott to @DanCrenshawTX are continuing to pass off massive lies about the energy situation in Texas, let's look at it again. Because it's not wind that's the problem. It's profit-protecting "deregulation" and a perverse idea of the "free market." … 1/18

On Wed., millions of Texans are still without power. Meanwhile, Austin is expected to reach freezing just in time for a massive ice storm expected to bring down trees and powerlines. Plus, broken water lines everywhere. So clearly, the people in charge need a scapegoat. … 2/18

Fox News and GOP politicians—including Gov. Abbott — have been taking this “opportunity” to attack wind energy, call for the burning of more fossil fuels, and to make claims that green power is “deadly.” Surprise! They're lying. … 3/18

In 2003, Australia installed a pair of wind turbines at it’s Mawson Research Station in Antarctica. One of those turbines failed … after 14 years of operating in sub zero temperatures and winds over100 mph. The other turbine is still operating today. … 4/18

At the opposite end of the planet, wind turbines are operating at Svalbard, the most northerly town in the world. The fishing town of Havoysund, inside the Arctic Circle, runs on wind power. Greenland has been steadily moving to wind since 2008. … 5/18

$Killer Trader \U0001f4c9\U0001f4c8$

Killer Trader 📉📈...
@KillerTrader_

Thread on sideways market:

Sideways price action or consolidation is a phase where institutional players are silently building their positions transacting in smaller quantities.

(1/n)

What we need to understand is that big players have huge amounts of money and one major disadvantage of having such large cap is that they cannot transact in big quantities without being spotted (aka volumes)

In order to minimize this disadvantage to an extent, they will begin building their positions with many smaller blocks of orders to look like multiple small players and to not alert other market participants much.

This kind of price action does not result in major market moves since moving markets requires aggressive buying/selling at market prices.

Instead it results in a sideways price action.

When their positions are built, aggressive activity begins which results in markets moving in a trend. First positions are built slowly and then markets are moved aggressively in the favorable direction to get profitable.

Robinhood Customer Rel...
@inteldotwav

THREAD: COUNTERFEIT STOCKS

There are four major players in the industry: Hedge funds, prime brokers, the DTCC, and the SEC.

Hedge funds and the SEC you know of, but the DTCC and prime brokers are important.

Prime brokers are relatively simple - they’re brokers that can clear their own transactions by way of moving actual shares between their clients.

The big prime brokers are ones you’ve heard of - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, Citigroup, etc. - big, big companies.

These prime brokers in turn collectively own the Depository Trust Clearing Corp - DTCC.

The DTCC is an almost impenetrable, behemoth corporation that clears near a billion shares a day and accounts for a vast majority of the clearing house activity in the US market. This is the corporation that ACTUALLY holds physical shares - all your “shares” are on their books

The DTCC is (this will be important later) nearly impossible to get information out of, and it takes an act of Congress or a subpoena to get them to talk on anything.

Lucas Nuzzi
@LucasNuzzi

1/ It's time to have a conversation about #Dogecoin.

If you're invested in $DOGE after @elonmusk's much endorsement (such wow), there are a couple of things that you should probably know👇

2/ First, let's talk about network security (I'll try to keep it simple).

Unlike BTC, ETH, or really any other major network, Dogecoin does not have its own miners -- it currently relies on another network, Litecoin, to survive.

So how did this happen and what does it mean?

3/ Back in 2014, Dogecoin was at a tough spot. There weren't enough miners working on $DOGE and there was a real risk that its network would be attacked.

A network attack (like a "51% attack") would likely destroy Dogecoin, so its developers had to do something...

4/ Their solution was to adopt something called Auxiliary Proof of Work (AuxPoW); a way to merge Dogecoin mining with other similar networks.

Put simply, AuxPoW enables miners to work on multiple coins at the same time and reuse the same work.

5/ Back then, it was somewhat of a controversial solution. Some users were concerned that AuxPoW would put the future of $DOGE at the mercy of bigger miners.

While the change likely saved Dogecoin, the concern was valid: ~95% of Dogecoin mining today is done by Litecoin miners.

James Fallows Tierney
@JamesFTierney

THREAD: What are some Posting Traders doing, and what do the federal securities laws say about it? A securities law professor tries to make it simple.

(Tl;dr? Some people on the Internet will be surprised when the SEC investigates them for market manipulation.)

Backstory: what's going on? GameStop sells video games (you've maybe seen their stores in strip malls). Its business model hasn't been doing so hot.

It's a public company, so you could go on your broker's website and trade its stock. Its price had been low for a while.

One very simple way to think about stock investing is that you can make two main types of bets: that a stock's price will go up, or go down.

Some big hedge funds (think BILLIONS) were betting that it'd go down. This is called a "short" bet.

The goal of a short sale is to sell high, buy low, and pocket the difference. Suppose you pay a small rental fee to borrow a stock, sell, and hope to rebuy it later at a lower price when you've said you'll give it back to the lender.

Note for later: "borrowing" is important.

The other kind of bet is a "long" sale, in which you buy a stock for its income (dividends) or the possibility of selling it for a higher price later (capital gains).

Compared with someone "short," someone "long" a stock actually has it (kinda).

$Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0$

Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan

Have you ever had 4-5 profitable trades in a row, and you bet all your profits on your next trade feeling "in the zone" only to lose it all?

That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.

I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.

Thread below 👇👇

Let's say you see a cricketer hit four 6's in a row.

If you have to bet on the next ball's outcome, what would you bet on?
— Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0 (@theBuoyantMan) December 30, 2020

1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.

If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.

This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.

2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.

This is classic hot-hand fallacy.

Each ball's outcome is independent.

The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).

These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.

This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.

3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.

These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".