BC TRADING
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Letter from the stock markets to the sceptics: "I may be high, but I'm not crazy." Caution, this thread may not age well, but I didn't really write it :).

~Thread from a twitter economist.

 They world is in one of the biggest crisis since the 2nd world war, but the stock markets seem to be on a relentless upward move. They appear completely divorced from reality. Really? Probably not. Here are reasons why the markets may be euphoric, but aren't crazy or stupid.
a) Lot of liquidity provided by central banks to rescue failing businesses - globally. Central banks and governments buying all kinds of securities including junk bonds directly!
b) Much of the western world is in the arena of 0 or negative interest rates, and anything which moves (above 0 returns) looks tasty enough to be eaten (bought)
c) The Sensex is just around 10% up from its January levels - so not really frothy territory (if you were to ignore the epidemic)
d) The usual metrics don't really make too much sense - so simply ignore Price-Earnings or Price-to-book value numbers (which show grave levels of over-valuation).
Similarly, you will need to ignore them next year too - when growth (on base effect) of turnover and profits may appear as high as 30 or 50% for many. And incredible earning are a result of pent up demand. Both years are aberrations. Ignore.
e) the only indication of what will happen post the passing of the epidemic - is from 1916, Spanish flu - that it's not so bad from an economic perspective. So in another year or two, things will be back to normal unless we have another major crisis (hey asteroid, it's 2020)
f) economies will become more productive and people and companies will find more efficient ways of doing work. It's like the London subway strike which closed some lines in 2014.
3% people stuck to the new routes, once closed routes were re-opened, because they figured that they had been taking the less efficient route all these years. We are looking at large productivity gains over the next decade.
Productivity gains will have serious and adverse consequences on wages for a lot of people - so things won't look too good for a lot of people. Reskilling will be v. critical.
g) The Indian government seems to be on a major reform drive - yes, not always popular: GST, insolvency, farm reforms, disinvestment, massive infra push etc.
h) if we are indeed at the beginning of serious reforms, we could be looking at very significant increase in GDP growth. It is premature to predict that, but the markets seem to be factoring that into the current price.
The markets are simply the collective expectation of the people of discounted cash flows from the future. So between higher expectations and more money chasing fewer attractive asset classes, pick your poison. But things are not as bad as they look.

More from Trading

Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll learn in this thread:

1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy

Let's dive in ↓

1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):

The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.

Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.

Sell directional credit spreads with capped


@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data

Don't trade till 9:45 Am.

Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.

Check combined premium and put a stop on individual


@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)

This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.

To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high

or Below yesterday's day's
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , TRADING , ALL
Christian Reshoeft
Christian Reshoeft
@reshoftc
(Thread) Why do I own individual stocks?

Thesis:

1. The digitalization of our world is 10% complete.
2. This megatrend will continue for at least another decade.
3. If you enjoy spending your free time on individual stocks, then the potential for outsized returns is possible.

What is my approach?

There are two parts to my portfolio.

- 40% in Vanguard All-World ETF. This is on autopilot w/ regular contributions.
- 60% in what I consider to be high growth stocks

I keep a balance by adding cash. No shuffling around unless it gets too out of whack.

The latter is the interesting part.

I invest in companies that can

1. successfully disrupt an industry with new business models $TTD $SQ $PTON $TDOC

2. further enable the digital transformation with their services and infrastructure $ZS $HUBS $TWLO $CRWD

I intend to hold my shares indefinitely and allow my investments to compound over time.

I don’t believe that it is possible to time the market. Markets go up and down. I hold on knowing that quality businesses tend to bounce back.

The list of reasons to sell is always long.

If you have full conviction in your holdings, then no single piece of “infotainment” should make you change your mind.

Ignore it + people who make predictions about the economy.
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Peter McCormack \U0001f451
Peter McCormack 👑...
@PeterMcCormack
1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...

Yesterday was brutal for some people...

Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.

2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.

https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0

tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it

2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.

3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.

If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.

4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information

And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.

5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?

I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
TRADING
Aditya Trivedi
Aditya Trivedi
@itsAdityaT
This is the most important concept which made me great money in 2022.

This is the skill which is GUARANTEED to make you a better trader


Banknifty moves in 2 phases.

1: Consolidation
2: Trends

An understanding of both of these phases will take your trading to the next level.

Let's start with consolidation phase

It looks like this when Banknifty is stuck inside a range.


This is phase when you shouldn't be taking directional trades.

As market is mostly choppy and is good for mean reversion scalpers.

An option seller can initiate neutral strategies under such an environment.

Trending phase will look something like this

The price action is quick and furious at this time.

As you can see after a consolidation there is a strong breakdown.
TRADING
Investment Books
Investment Books
@InvestmentBook1
Knowledge sharing initiative Book 3: "Zurich Axioms" by Max Gunther

The book crystallizes how to think about taking investment bets (position sizing), and how to reduce risks in investing & speculation. It focuses on teaching a balance between rewards & risks.

(1/n)


Here are the key takeaways from the book:

1. Take sizeable bets in life: Taking small bets will give you a good night's sleep as you have very little to lose, but the important point is "it won't ever make you rich".

(2/n)

2. Taking size-able risk is necessary to get rich but make sure you don't go bankrupt taking that risk.

3. Don't diversify too much as gains & losses will nullify each other.

(3/n)

4. Be less greedy to make money - Book some profits when you see a sudden huge increase in wealth - fear of regret will stop you from booking profits but don't be greedy as consistent streaks of lucks are rare in life.

(4/n)

5. Cut losses when you go wrong don't start praying that your losses will recover rather act quickly take some loss and sell out.

(5/n)
TRADING

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This funny but interesting anecdote was published by a statewide local daily Dinamalar. I have just translated and posting it here for rest of the nation;
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FT Trading\u2503Stock Trader
FT Trading┃Stock Trade...
@FT__Trading
Ever wonder how traders get in stocks before they explode? 🧐

Or find options that move 1,000% in a single day/week?🤯

I made a thread going over exactly how I find these stocks BEFORE they take off 🚀
👇👇👇

So, let's start with the software I use…

Finviz!! Finviz is a free website that I use to scan for stocks.

They have a lot of other cool features as well, but I only use their scanner.
👇

Head on over to finviz and go to the screener

Click on the “All” tab on the top and put in the criteria in the next tweet
👇

This is the first scan that I use for bullish swing setups
✅Quarter +10%
✅Week Down
✅Vol over 400k
✅Optionable
✅Price > $20
👇


The next scan I use is the opposite of the first one.

Simply change:
✅Quarter +10% to -10%
✅Week Down to Week up

This is my bearish scan for swing setups. 👇
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Vibhu Vashisth
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@VIBHU_Tweet
🌺श्री गरुड़ पुराण - संक्षिप्त वर्णन🌺

हिन्दु धर्म के 18 पुराणों में से एक गरुड़ पुराण का हिन्दु धर्म में बड़ा महत्व है। गरुड़ पुराण में मृत्यु के बाद सद्गती की व्याख्या मिलती है। इस पुराण के अधिष्ठातृ देव भगवान विष्णु हैं, इसलिए ये वैष्णव पुराण है।


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..ताकि उस समय हम जीवन-मरण से जुड़े सभी सत्य जान सकें और मृत्यु के कारण बिछडने वाले सदस्य का दुख कम हो सके।
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तदुपरांत सुर्य व चंद्र ग्रहों के मंत्र, शिव-पार्वती मंत्र,इन्द्र सम्बंधित मंत्र,सरस्वती मंत्र और नौ शक्तियों के बारे में विस्तार से बताया गया है।
इस पुराण में उन्नीस हज़ार श्लोक बताए जाते हैं और इसे दो भागों में कहा जाता है।
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
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