1/x ‘Twas the night before Christmas & all through the market not an order was stirring not even for $TGT.
The bonuses were entered into payroll with care,
In hopes that next year would bring a similar fare;
The Bulls were nestled all snug in their beds;

2/x While visions of $TSLA danced in their heads;
& Biden in his Covid mask, & Powell with his still flowing money tap,
Had just settled their brains for a long winter's nap,
When out on the screen there arose such a clatter,
All sprang from their beds to see what was the matter.

3/x Away to their monitors they flew like a flash,
Tore open their Bloombergs & threw up the dash(board).
The S. Claus rally in markets, that all of us know,
Paired w/vaccine reopening, Gave a bid to the market, leaving old prices below,
When what to their wondering👀 did appear?

4/x But a Georgia runoff rushing up to them with complacency, not fear...
With once reliable Vanna flows no longer lively & quick,
They knew in a moment the markets might get quite sick...
Unexpected, 2 Georgia Dem peaches into Congress they came,

5/x Whistling & shouting they called for more fiscal, ‘CARES Too’ its new name:
"Now, Healthcare! Now, Infrastructure! Now Green Energy & Protectionism!
On, Labor rights! on, Minimum Wage! on, Basic Income & Populism!
To middle class households, To the poorest of them all!

It's great that more people are becoming aware of the importance of investing BUT, as we seek out more investment opportunities, you should know that unlike Shrek, all that glitters is not gold. Not all good looking investment opportunities are safe and legit.
 
You should also

know that an investment opportunity doesn't have to be a Ponzi scheme for you to run away from it.
 
Most of the investment opportunities available in the Nigerian Fintech space are 3rd party investment.
 
The way 3rd party investment works is: a company gets money from investors

to create value which can be in the form of a business (e.g. fish farm, real estate etc.). After a certain period, that business should generate profit and the company then pays investors their capital plus a share of that profit as returns.
 
It becomes a problem when the

investment doesn't generate any profit or the profit is not enough to pay investors the promised returns. This is where Ponzi/pyramid schemes come in.
 
A Ponzi scheme is when a company/person offers an investment opportunity to users but in reality, uses the money from newer

investors to pay older investors. Basically, robbing Peter to pay Paul. As you can imagine, Ponzi schemes are only profitable as long as there are enough Peters to take care of the Pauls. When the number of Peters that sign up to the "investment opportunity"/the amount of money

21 stocks for 2021: Day 9 - Redfin $RDFN

The Bull Case: Redfin calls itself “A Technology-Powered Real Estate Company” whose mission is to “redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor”.
[1/9]

Bull Case Continued: They invented map-based real estate search and have the most visited brokerage website, which translates to low marketing costs. Redfin has a high net promoter score and better repeat business than their competitors.
[2/9]

Bull Case Continued: They have full time agents who are rewarded based on customer satisfaction instead of commission which means their incentives are better aligned with the customer.
[3/9]

Bull Case Continued: Redfin can claim to save customers money (reduced listing fees) and time (more on-time closings) along with offering a complete solution (brokerage, mortgage, title insurance).
[4/9]

Bull Case Continued: Redfin isn’t just an iBuying play. They are prepared for the future of real estate no matter what form it takes: Brokerage, Concierge, Now, Direct. Impressive leadership from CEO Glenn Kelman (CEO for 15+ years).
[5/9]

(26/50)

With FDI inflows increasing, the GoE begins hiring engineers, irrigation technique counselors, contracting out developers and suppliers and restructures Kamali’s current irrigation channel.

Let’s enter back into Kamali’s world:

(27/50)

You have been having your best production yields you have ever had; you have been building your credit up and are now financing your own electrically powered irrigation pump that has much better access to water due to larger irrigation installments upstream.

(28/50)

You are now able to expand the amount of wheat coverage from .5 hectares to all 1.75 hectares that you own, but that means your input costs will increase by 250%. The financial institutions aren't yet comfortable issuing an unsecured credit voucher to you of that size.

(29/50)

Your alternative is to outsource a loan from the current Web 2 CeFi infrastructure via mobile app, Opay, a borrow/lending platform in Ethiopia. Opay was demanded to be taken off of Google Play Store for predatory lending as their practices included:

(30/50)

- Massive data privacy breach
1) internet browser history
2) social media
3) SMS and call history
4) location data
- high loan origination fee (upwards of 22%)
- massive APR (upwards of 300%)
- short term fixed duration (not suitable for farmers)

1) Let's talk about Tesla's China strategy. There's a few questions here - why did the Chinese government actively encourage them to set up in Shanghai? What's in it for Tesla? Why is Tesla continously discounting their cars?

Spoiler alert: $TSLA go brrr

2) Our story starts all the way back in 2013, when smog was so bad Beijing didn't see any blue sky for months. Policy pivots were in order, and new energy bills with specific support for electric vehicles (EV) were introduced.

3) Over the next few years subsidies from the government were handed out to any car companies that said they were going electric. A single EV could get up to $22k worth of subsidies (provided they could drive for 250 km).

Sales increased and the EV market steady grew

4) However at the end of 2017, there was no standout Chinese EV company. Far too much of the subsidies went to fraudsters and the Chinese EV market was lagging behind the EU market.

Chinese government hardened their resolve.

Similar to Baidu, complacency was a killer.

5) The aim was to have a thriving worldclass EV market in the long term.

Similar to how introducing Apple and Samsung brought up Xiaomi, One Plus and Oppo, they decided to introduce foreign competition from the best EV brand there was - Tesla.

So I've followed DFV's $GME journey from beginning and think it says a lot about what's going on here. How do u go from $50k to $40ml deep value screening in about a year which btw beats $nflx and $amzn growth return holding for decades? A

1)
As someone who tried the blockbuster rinse and repeat short (unsuccessfully btw) on $gme almost a decade ago I'm quite familiar with the name. Burry's re-emergence at the end of 2018 & roughly $5ml gme position disclosure then put the stock on the deep value radar.

2)
$gme dropped like 50% in h1 2019 and his q2 disclosure indicated he had exited the name. It was at this time DFV emerged onto WSB with an essentially i'll take this shot at half MB's cost basis with the console refresh a year out thesis.

3)
I don't recall him fully articulating the thesis then, but that really didn't matter as MB remerged with a 3-4% activist stake by the Aug 2019 about 70% lower than his year end 2018 cost basis. MB wanted a buyback immediately & criticized mgmt past capital alloc failures.

4)
To be clear the thesis did not provide deep dive analysis on $GME or the industry. MB simply seemed to be of the view that the console refresh meant things were not ending anytime soon, and that simply buying back stock in size was the right move for mgmt.

So I thought the whole "paid newsletter" thing was dumb.

So naturally, I tried it out as an experiment.. The results were kinda nutty. The newsletter started bringing home $49k per month (!) -- Here's the backstory

"what was the newsletter about?"

Well - for the past year, I've been doing a podcast called My First Million. Gimmicky name, but whatever.

It's a pod where me and @theSamParr (and friends like @awilkinson @_jacksmith etc.) brainstorm business ideas based on trends we see

Anyways - the podcast has gotten pretty big. We do over 350k downloads/month.

People like listening to us shoot the shit, brainstorming ideas.

But as the nearest schmuck will tell you - ideas aren't shit without execution!

The problem is - execution is less sexy.

Usually when people talk about execution, it's in the past tense. We did X, and voila, we won.

They edit & cut out all the dead ends they hit, the stuff they tried that failed.

This gives people a f*cked up idea of what execution really is.

Still - there's demand for learning how to execute better.

The number one question I get in my DMs everyday is: "I love that idea from the pod, how would you approach it?"

There's no simple answer. So for months I just ignored them.

This chart is the clearest representation of the immense damage that emanated from the GFC on the US economy.

In the ~60 years following WWII, US real GDP seemed to grow at ~3% trend like clockwork.

2008 marked the end of this trend, with growth downshifting to ~2% since. 1/

The scars from such long periods of low growth and balance sheet repair ran deep, with tragic consequences.

A generation of consumers became more risk averse, business investment & productivity slumped, and a large cohort of workers witnessed real declines in nominal incomes. 2/

Most economists now seem resigned to the idea that this is the new era of slow growth is likely to continue.

The Fed's own estimate of R* now sits at 2.5%, down nearly 200 bps from its estimate in 2012. 3/

But what if, just like after WWII, a surge in productivity enhancing gov't infrastructure spending and increased risk appetite on behalf of consumers/businesses raises R*?

I don't think this is as far fetched as conventional wisdom makes it out to be. 4/

Behaviorally, exogenous crises such as what we experienced in 2020 can increase generational risk taking.

Think of the difference between someone who lived through the great depression versus someone who survived WWII. The latter was far more risk seeking than the former. 5/

THE 6 GOLDEN RULES OF MARKET RESEARCH

What you will learn:
> Why making money online is as simple as digging for gold
> Why market research is the treasure map to the gold
> How to find where "X marks the spot" on the map
> How to build your own treasure map

//THREAD//

👇👇👇

Quick PSA: If you get value out of this thread, please be a good Internet citizen and hit that RT button ☝

Now that's outta the way

Let's get started with Tip # 1...

1) Understand WHY

Doing market research is like digging for gold aka that BIG idea that guarantees people will buy from you.

This gold tells us:
> What people think
> How people feel
> What problems they have
> WHAT THEY WILL BUY

If we can answer these questions...

then we will know EXACTLY

> What to build
> Which words we use to persuade them to buy

BEFORE we spend a single minute of our precious time and effort

Building a product
Creating a service offer
Writing a book

Market research = Having our own treasure map to the gold

2) Join their communities

First step to learning more about your customer is to hang out where they hang out.

-Study their lingo
-Identify their problems
-Hear their stories
-Take part in discussions
-Give FREE value
-OBSERVE

Good Saturday Morning Chart Fans!!!

Let's see what the charts say (or at least what I think they might say!)

DJIA

Transports.

Utes. I am shocked they haven't broken yet with Bondaleros doing what they did.

SPX. Channel Check even with first 4 straight red since December.

Indian Energy Exchange, like a toll bridge, connects power generators with power consumers & distributors. The alternative to IEX like alternatives to toll bridges is more expensive bilateral agreements.

Fasten your seatbelts as we’ll take you through the 19-20 AR of IEX.

1/

Megatrends for Energy

~Decarbonization
~Decentralization
~Digitization
~Democratization

2/
Transformation in the energy sector
~Benchmark prices for all electricity transactions
~Transparent mechanism for price discovery
~High liquidity on exchange to ensure the lowest cost and assured supply

3/
Key points
~Customer Centricity driven by intuitive, secure, & responsive design
~Efficiency through efficient matching algorithms, automation, & low latency
~State-of-the-Art analytics-based solutions that are future-ready.

4/

IGX
~ Launched on 15th June 2020
~ India’s 1st nation-wide automated gas trading platform
~ Govt plans to increase the share of natural gas from 6% to 15% by 2022
~Enabler in making India transition towards a gas-based economy.

I analyzed 25+ years of #Nifty data to better understand bear markets 🐻

Why?

Given the recent market sell-off and bearish stance of market participants, history and data is your best guide to prepare if we're headed for a bear market.

Thread with findings below 🧵👇
1/n

But first, do you know the definition of a bear market?

When any index falls 20% or more from it's all time high, it is termed to be in a #bearmarket 🐻

How do you calculate length of a bear market? The time duration in days from previous all-time high to market bottom.

2/n

🇮🇳 Nifty last 25 years (1997-2022*)

Number of Bear Markets = 8

Average drawdown % = -38.5%

Average bear market duration = 246 days (8 m)

Key takeaway - Bear markets occur every ~3 years and take on average 8 months to bottom

3/n

1997 and 2006 saw the fastest bear markets with Nifty correcting 20-30% in just ~1 month.

Unbelievably, 1997 had 2 bear markets! Just imagine suffering 20% drawdowns twice in a few months!

Mar 2020 Covid crash was the 3rd fastest and 3rd worst bear market.

4/n

Okay, how should we define Bear Market Recovery?

The no of days from market bottom to a new all-time high.

Sadly, bear markets take time to recover.

Almost double the time to recover to a new ATH compared to the time to form a bottom.

Avg recovery duration – 495 days

5/n

THREAD: What are some Posting Traders doing, and what do the federal securities laws say about it? A securities law professor tries to make it simple.

(Tl;dr? Some people on the Internet will be surprised when the SEC investigates them for market manipulation.)

Backstory: what's going on? GameStop sells video games (you've maybe seen their stores in strip malls). Its business model hasn't been doing so hot.

It's a public company, so you could go on your broker's website and trade its stock. Its price had been low for a while.

One very simple way to think about stock investing is that you can make two main types of bets: that a stock's price will go up, or go down.

Some big hedge funds (think BILLIONS) were betting that it'd go down. This is called a "short" bet.

The goal of a short sale is to sell high, buy low, and pocket the difference. Suppose you pay a small rental fee to borrow a stock, sell, and hope to rebuy it later at a lower price when you've said you'll give it back to the lender.

Note for later: "borrowing" is important.

The other kind of bet is a "long" sale, in which you buy a stock for its income (dividends) or the possibility of selling it for a higher price later (capital gains).

Compared with someone "short," someone "long" a stock actually has it (kinda).

The battle all $XRP holders were waiting for. I’m sure lots of holders will be debating whether to sell off this news... a few

and @bgarlinghouse will have anticipated this decision by @SEC_News for years, in which time they’ve built out an extremely experienced exec team who are poised and ready for this legal battle to commence.

has led a great PR narrative over the last year, pressing hard for reg clarity in the US via media and threatening to up sticks and move @Ripple overseas. Have the SEC played into his plan to force regulatory clarity that may not have otherwise came quick enough?

has shareholders who will expect certain growth in certain timeframes. Has Brad dangled the right carrot to get their attention by talking about leaving the US? Will this suit get legal clarity for $XRP quicker than waiting for industry wide clarity?

If I can work that out, I’m sure he can.

This isn’t just a small startup, it’s a global company with extremely reputable board members, partners and investors, who will also add pressure to the SEC’s case. Take @yoshitaka_kitao in Japan for example.

Excellent compilation of Forbes articles on Warren Buffet from 1969 to 2000s. h/t @valuewalk 👏

@dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

https://t.co/V7uTYjwSrn

Reading articles from the actual period (instead of books written after he was already widely famous) provides more interesting details on how his investing process evolved over the decades..

->Pure Balancesheet & Valuation based investing(50s/60s)

-> Purchases based on Intangibles/Brands & Moats (70s)

-> Convertible Stocks (80s)

-> Acquiring overall Companies (90s onwards)....

Few interesting quotes from the document.

“Investment is most intelligent when it is most business-like”—in other words, not swayed by emotions, hopes, fads.

“I think of it in terms of buying a whole company just as if I were buying the store down the street. If I were buying the store, I’d want to know all about it."

🚨 GLOBAL GEMS (+100 Stocks) 🚨

🇸🇪 SWEDEN
$MIPS
$EVO
$PLEJD
$EMBRAC
$KAMBI
$FNOX
$SPOT
$247
$SINCH
$CLINKB
$GETIB
$PDX
$MTGB
$LIME

🇳🇴 NORWAY
$HBC
$MEDI
$PSKY
$KAHOOT
$CARA
$AZT
$ZAPME
$SSO

🇫🇮 FINLAND
$KNEBV
$REMEDY
$REG1V

CONTINUED 👇

🇩🇰 DENMARK
$COLOB
$NZYMB
$CHEMM
$NETC.CO
$FOM
$VWS
$SIM

🇵🇱 POLAND
$ALE
$CDR

🇩🇪 GERMANY
$DHER
$ZAL
$M0Y
$YSN
$ST5
$ELG
$TMV

🇮🇹 ITALY
$NEXI
$RACE

🇪🇸 SPAIN
$CLNX

🇦🇹 AUSTRIA
$FAA

🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM
$DEO
$TM17
$GMR
$OCDO

CONTINUED 👇

🇧🇪 BELGIUM
$MTLS

🇫🇷 FRANCE
$UBI
$RMS
$MC

🇳🇱 NETHERLANDS
$PRX.AS
$ASML
$ADYEN

🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA
$APT
$EOS
$XRO

🇨🇦 CANADA
$WELL.TO
$DCBO
$LSPD
$REAL.TO
$CNI
$NVEI
$AT.TO

🇷🇺 RUSSIA
$YNDX
$OZON

CONTINUED 👇

🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA
$GRVY

🇯🇵 JAPAN
$NTDOY
$FRCOY
$LSRCF
$4477.T
$NJDCY

🇨🇳 CHINA
$PDD
$JD
$XPEV
$BYD
$BABA
$FUTU

🌏 SOUTH EAST ASIA
$SHNUF
$SE

🌎 LATAM
$MELI
$PAGS
$STNE
$DESP

🌍 AFRICA
$JMIA

🌐 ROW
$KASPI.KZ

CONTINUED 👇

🇭🇰 HONG KONG

$1810 Xiaomi
$1585 Yadea
$0853 Microport
$6160 Beigene
$6969 Smoore
$6098 Country Garden Svc
$6862 HaiDiLao
$2013 Weimob
$9923 YeahKa
$0268 Kingdee
$0241 Ali Health
$2331 Li Ning
$1347 Hua Hong Semi
$2382 Sunny Optical
$1337 Razer

Few days back, I shared my investment thesis for ITC.

Today, I want to share the detailed presentation.

Focus is on explaining & analyzing the ITC 'business' and not the divided opinions about its 'stock price'.

Thread 👇

@finbloggers @dmuthuk @FinMedium @ITCCorpCom

1/ Financial Performance

- Decent overall growth.
- Weak revenue growth in recent years.
- PAT growth > EBIT growth > revenue growth.

2/ Financial Position

- NCA have almost tripled.
- Equity has almost quadrupled.
- Negligible debt / insignificant liabilities.

3/ Cash Management

- CFO growth < PAT growth.
- CFO enough to cover both re-investments & dividend.
- Consistent re-investment & increasing shareholder payouts.

4/ Key Metrics

- ROCE/ROE near minimum but still healthy.
- Margins at decade highs.
- Asset utilizations at decade lows.
- Comfortable solvency, minimal leverage.
- Strong cash conversion.

It looks like every symptom on Google search leads to cancer.

So, when you have a symptom that Google screams CANCER, should you be afraid?

Before I answer that for you, let's talk about Occam's Razor and how you can use it to simplify your life.

Let's dive in. 👇👇👇

1/ In the early 1900s, two physicists studied space and time and arrived at a similar conclusion: things tend to go a little bonkers within the space-time continuum.

Ex: The closer we get to moving at the speed of light, the more we slow down.

2/ Both the scientists arrived at the same results through their equations & derivations. But both had different explanations.

One suggested that the phenomenon was due to the changes that took place within "the ether". Another didn't refer to the ether at all.

3/ The latter won the Nobel prize and the world reveres him as a genius.

The former was the physicist named Lorentz.

The latter was Einstein.

This was the Einstein-Lorentz Relativity priority dispute that we are talking about.

4/ Lorentz's explanation wasn't given preference because according to science, the ether doesn't exist. When that's introduced into the equation, it makes things complicated.

Einstein used no references to the ether, and his simpler explanation rooted in scientific method won.