This chart is the clearest representation of the immense damage that emanated from the GFC on the US economy.

In the ~60 years following WWII, US real GDP seemed to grow at ~3% trend like clockwork.

2008 marked the end of this trend, with growth downshifting to ~2% since. 1/

The scars from such long periods of low growth and balance sheet repair ran deep, with tragic consequences.

A generation of consumers became more risk averse, business investment & productivity slumped, and a large cohort of workers witnessed real declines in nominal incomes. 2/
Most economists now seem resigned to the idea that this is the new era of slow growth is likely to continue.

The Fed's own estimate of R* now sits at 2.5%, down nearly 200 bps from its estimate in 2012. 3/
But what if, just like after WWII, a surge in productivity enhancing gov't infrastructure spending and increased risk appetite on behalf of consumers/businesses raises R*?

I don't think this is as far fetched as conventional wisdom makes it out to be. 4/
Behaviorally, exogenous crises such as what we experienced in 2020 can increase generational risk taking.

Think of the difference between someone who lived through the great depression versus someone who survived WWII. The latter was far more risk seeking than the former. 5/
What's more is, US household balance sheets are in perhaps the best shape they've ever been at the onset of a new business cycle.

When in history have we witnessed a ~10% decline in nominal GDP and a coincident 12% INCREASE in nominal income in the same quarter?! Never... 6/
Even excluding gov't transfers, US HH balance sheets were in a strong position before the pandemic.

At the beginning of 2020, household debt as a percentage of disposable income was at its lowest levels in ~20 years. 7/
If there was ever a time for US household risk appetite to increase, it would be now.

This sounds trite, but the pandemic is a reminder that life is short. There is little point in waiting to start a business. And with HH B/S's healthy, there is no time like the present. 8/
This isn't just some feel good bromide. It has been showing up in the data on business formations.

US business applications have surged this year following years of stagnant growth. 9/
And whatever your views are on the benefits gov't spending, there's no question that U.S. infrastructure is in urgent need of an upgrade.

Gov't expenditures as % of US GDP have been in structural decline for decades. There is now strong public support for this trend to shift.
To be sure. Its paid to be skeptical regarding calls for rising structural US growth rates. There are plenty of headwinds out there (population growth, participation rates, TFP growth).

But if there was ever a time for short run R* to rise, it'd be now. End

More from Trading

Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.

This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety


Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯

It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.

I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper:
https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)

I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"


Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments,

I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)
FREE MINI STOCK MBA
If you wish to learn abt trading,psychology,options,business etc
You can go through this thread.
Other than this I do post videos on my YT channel : -Abhishek Kar & Tradiostation
-Intraday views on FREE telegram : Abhishek Kar Official
RT will be appreciated

1. Threads to learn Options
https://t.co/wabkek43I8

2. https://t.co/OIDenHKdWN

3. Some core rules to investing
https://t.co/37d1pygp7P

4.Summing up 2020 Trading lessons
https://t.co/jSUb1lSGbQ

5.Effects of margin change on


6. Exciting story about a trader who destroyed a Bank
https://t.co/CsEEhIsD3q

7. Some Thought Provoking facts about stock markets
https://t.co/IjxpX5Wx24

8. A dose on Trading and investing


9. Top 5 resources to learn everything about stocks
https://t.co/6KnIySBGIG

10. Some Pro Tips on Trading
https://t.co/EiSGikt7jv

11. Wisdom on stuffs you should not do
https://t.co/bI2dH0XTSS

12. Reasons why you are losing the


13. The DARK side of stock market
https://t.co/qsteGcbquI

14. Stocks where you should NOT invest
https://t.co/2tD5q0K3UQ

15. Lessons from MILLIONAIRE trader
https://t.co/Pec6LmUtGa

16. Lessons from my

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.