1/ I used to think that the biggest gains had to come from stocks that no one knew about
One of the harder lessons for me to internalize has been that oftentimes, unknown stocks stay unknown for a reason and you can still earn attractive returns from stocks everyone's bullish on
When I started out, I would buy "quality" stocks like FB or TSLA without doing much research.
But an opinion being consensus doesn’t make it the truth.
I preferred owning stocks that others weren’t aware of or were bearish on for the wrong reasons (more room for upside surprises).
Despite being widely popular, stocks like SHOP have been some of the best performers because they exceeded even the most bullish projections
And some stocks like TSLA are partly popular because they are great consumer products which is an important sign
Picking out the big winners earlier on is very difficult and there is no set formula
More from Trading
Thread on How Over-analysis leads to decision Paralysis-
What is Analysis paralysis?
In simple terms, analysis paralysis is a person's tendency to over-analyze or over-think upon a decision to such an extent that he/she fails to make a choice resulting in a paralyzed state of inaction.
How a retail trader trades-
A trader named Rahul, He know all the basics of markets, He also has made a system which gives signals on nifty, he has also encorporated good Risk management and Position sizing into his system.
One day he gets a signal to buy Nifty at 13500 with stop at 13450, he wanted to take the trade, but he wanted to get sure that the trade he has take should be a winner.
So he says just let me check the RSI if its above this level I will buy , he checks it and it was above his
level, then again he wants to check another indicator named MACD, he wanted to get sure man, Now he do the most intelligent thing to get sure he gets right.
He goes to twitter and ask his twitter Friend Trader knight he ask him that should I buy nifty at 13500,
~Thread from a twitter economist.
They world is in one of the biggest crisis since the 2nd world war, but the stock markets seem to be on a relentless upward move. They appear completely divorced from reality. Really? Probably not. Here are reasons why the markets may be euphoric, but aren't crazy or stupid.
a) Lot of liquidity provided by central banks to rescue failing businesses - globally. Central banks and governments buying all kinds of securities including junk bonds directly!
b) Much of the western world is in the arena of 0 or negative interest rates, and anything which moves (above 0 returns) looks tasty enough to be eaten (bought)
c) The Sensex is just around 10% up from its January levels - so not really frothy territory (if you were to ignore the epidemic)
If you look closely, 4 out of the 6 top NFOs in terms of money raised are from bank owned NFOs. These AMCs are notoriously skilled at selling garbage funds through their banking channels. They've turned mis-selling into an art. They're are Picasso's of mis-selling
One would be excused for thinking these are intent based allocations by investors which isn't the case. These funds would've been sold mis-sold by any way possible. Bank RMs are incentivized to do so.
Otherwise, in a country where people don't understand a simple mutual funds, expecting people to understand a worthless and pointless ESG fund a d then allocating 1500 crores is a mega stretch. ICICI Pru too had raised 1000+cr for its ESG fund.
The fact that these new funds are raising so much money to me is a negative. In a time like this, where will retail investors find fresh money to allocate? Which means they must doing stupid things like selling other funds.
They have 13M customers, 13% trade options, 2% multi leg options and 3% are margin enabled
1/ The median age of an investors is 31; 1/2 are first time investors.
The median / average customer account size is $240 / $5,000.
This supports various theses that RH is the “play account” while users have another longer term oriented brokerage account.
2/ On the $GME saga they provide the timeline of collateral requirements during the week of 1/25.
Their obligation 1/25 as $124M the same day the VIX spiked 62% (3rd largest daily gain since 1990).
On 1/28 NSCC told them they had a deposit deficit of $3B. ($1.3B of VaR based)
3/ In addition to the VaR based they had an "excess capital premium charge" over $2.2B. The NSCC indicated RH owed $3.7B versus $696M already on deposit with NSCC, so the net amount due was approximately $3B
4/ They also mentioned over the course of 4 days they raised ~$3.4B from investors
My colleagues and I review the case in a new piece:
As a reminder, the new law imposes a gross receipts tax ranging from 2.5% to 10% on revenues derived from digital advertising services in MD. The tax applies to companies with global revenues from all sources of $100 million+, and no deductions for expenses are permitted.
The tax must be paid on a quarterly basis throughout the year, with the first payment due April 15, 2021, and fines and penalties for failure to file up to five years’ imprisonment.
Connecticut, Indiana, Montana, and Oregon, are also considering new digital tax legislation.
The lawsuit filed today in federal court challenges the Maryland legislation on several grounds:
One is that it violates the Permanent Internet Tax Freedom Act (PITFA). Signed into law by President Obama in 2016, PITFA bans state taxes that discriminate against interstate commerce.
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You can't magic away the vast distances involved. Clue: we fly in only 1/192th of our trade compared to the amount that arrives via sea
In 2016, the UK transported 484,000,000 tons of freight by sea, but just 2,511,000 tons by air (192x less than by sea). Therefore absurd to think of simply substituting air freight for sea freight (e.g. if we have to fly in food or medicines because of post-Brexit jams at ports)— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) October 28, 2018
But even if you invented a teleporter tomorrow, WTO terms are so bad, so stacked against us, that a no-deal Brexit will be a total economic disaster
Here's the truth about Brexit, the "punishment" some people claim the EU wants to inflict on us, the full horrific consequences of no deal, and the dangers lurking behind any deal we reach. Buckle in, it's pretty long. Better to be thorough than to leave anything out. 1/47— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) October 14, 2018
And while the Brexiteers fantasise, real jobs are being lost, investments are drying up, companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. All already happened and happening right now, not in some mythical
Ok, it's high time to look at the REAL effects of Brexit. As the Tories implode & Labour sits on its hands, companies are executing contingency plans, shifting jobs & assets, slashing investments, or redomiciling (accounting exercise). Happening NOW, not in a fantasy future. 1/95— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) November 14, 2018
Of course, there are many, many myths that Brexiteers perpetuate that are total fiction. You've seen a couple of them already. The thread below busts a whole lot
Unicorn Shredder: Hard Brexit Truths— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) November 15, 2018
- The major economic harm Brexit is already inflicting on the UK
- Reality of "no deal" & WTO terms
- EU "punishment" narrative
- Endangered industries: automotive & haulage
+ much, much more...
(Each tweet is a self-contained thread.)
1) Maruti Suzuki (passenger cars)
2) APL Apollo (structural & pre galvanized tubes)
3) CDSL (investors accounts)
4) Interglobe Aviation (air traffic passengers)
5) GMM Pfaudler (glass lined equipment)
6) Asian Paints (decorative paints)
7) Colgate (oral care)
8) Symphony (coolers)
9) PGHH (female care & vaporub)
10) La Opala Rg (opalware)
11) HLE Glasscoat (filtration & drying equipment)
12) Delta Corp (online poker games)
13) Bajaj Auto (3W segment)
14) Vinati Organics (IBB)
15) OCCL (insoluble sulphur)
16) LMW (textile machinery)
17) Bajaj Consumer (almond hair oil)
18) Indiamart Intermesh (online B2B Classified space)
19) Vst Tillers (power tillers)
20) Sanghvi Movers (overall domestic crane hiring market)
21) Emami (antiseptic & male grooming)
List of companies with more than 60% Market Share:
1) Concor (domestic container cargo transport)
2) Exide (lead batteries)
3) Naukri (Indian job market space)
4) Praj (ethanol plant installing)
5) ACE (mobile & tower cranes)
6) Pidilite (adhesives)
7) Jamna Auto (leaf spring)
8) CAMS (RTA within mutual fund industry)
9) Time Technoplast (polymer based industrial packaging)
(1) The notion that R is well-suited to "building web applications" seems totally out of left field. I don't feel like most R loyalists think this is a good idea, but it's worth calling out that no normal company will be glad you wrote your entire web app in R.
(2) It is true that Python had some issues historically with the 2-to-3 transition, but it's not such a big deal these days. On the flip side, I have found interesting R code that doesn't run in modern R interpreters because of changes in core operations (e.g. assignment syntax).
(3) "Most of the time we only need a latest, working interpreter with the latest packages to run the code" -- this is where things get real and reveal some things that hurt data scientists. If this sentence is true, it's likely because you don't share code with coworkers.
(3) Really is a broader issue in data science: people only think of what they need to do their work if no one else existed and code was never maintained. Junior data scientists almost always operate on projects they start from scratch and don't have to maintain for long.
Z drugiej strony taka plotka, na tym etapie sezonu idealnie gra z zamiarami Williamsa, żeby czekać z potwierdzeniem kierowców jak najdłużej. Taka mała powtórka z zeszłego roku... #F1pl
You are interviewed for multiple skills simultaneously. Cognitive skills, communication, leadership are a few to name. If the point is not finding a solution, then what is it? Let me explain.
Your interviewers try to understand what it feels like to work with you on a daily basis. An interview question is just a tool in achieving that, it is not there to specifically measure your skills on a topic but a tool to understand the depth of your thinking.
Before the interview starts, ask them what they want to get out of this interview. Good interviewers should already have a plan and a set of expectations. Ask them what you should do. Don't start coding yet. Ask them you should produce. Discussion, diagrams, pseudo code, code?
Then, start cracking the question. List whatever questions you think it is important to solve this question, ask your edge cases. Get to a point where you are discussing about pros/cons of the solutions. These steps are critical. Don't just start coding. Have a consensus first.