BC GOVERNMENT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

A super simple thread to help everyone understand the concept of 'Fiscal Deficit' and what happens when government spends more than its receipts. 👇🧵

#fiscaldeficit #economics #financialliteracy

 1. Let us understand everything bit by bit.
Say, Raju is a businessman. Now, like every businessman, Raju is ambitious and curious to know his profit. Hence, he keeps his accounts to calculate his profit.
2. Throughout the year, his total revenue was Rs.10 lakh and his total expenditure was Rs.8 lakh. Hence, Raju is having profit or surplus of Rs.2 lakh.
3. The next year, due to lack of demand, his revenue fell to Rs.7 lakh and his expenses increased to Rs.9 lakh. Hence, Raju is now having loss or deficit of Rs.2 lakh.
4. Now, let us replace ‘Raju’ with ‘Government’ and you get the concept of ‘Fiscal surplus/ deficit’.
5. To put in simple words, every year government receives income through sources like Taxes, fines, penalties, license fees, etc. and expends money on various infrastructure projects, salaries to its employees, etc.
6. Now if,
👉The Government Receipt (excluding borrowings) > The Government Expenditure, then the difference is called as ‘Fiscal Surplus’.
👉The Government Receipts (excluding borrowings) < The Government Expenditure, then the difference is called as ‘Fiscal Deficit’.
7. Now, in India’s case we rarely see a situation like ‘Fiscal Surplus’ as Government ‘Expenditure’ almost always exceeds Government ‘Receipts’.
Many people see this in a bad light. But, it is not as bad as it looks. Why so? Lets find out!
8. India is a developing country. And when we say this, it would mean that the government is always trying hard to increase the economic growth rate.
9. Now, one way of doing this is by increasing the government expenditure. Let’s dig deep to understand how increased government expenditure could mean good for economy.
10. One man’s income would mean another man’s expenditure. Hence, with government increasing the expenditure, there will be more government projects like construction of airports, roads, dams, flyovers, etc. This would mean more money in the hands of people.
11. Whenever, there is increase in income of people, there will be increase in demand of goods and services due to increase in the purchasing power. Hence, this will cause the money cycle to move faster.
12. More income would also mean more savings and hence the bank deposits will boost. More bank deposits would also boost the loan and credit flow.
More credit would mean businesses would invest more money and there will be increase in employment, output and income.
13. Thus, the government expending more will have a multiplier like effect. You may read this to get a better picture. https://t.co/HiBrbbgXBW
14. Now, another question that may pop up here is how can government spend more than it is earning. Well, that is where the borrowing part comes.
15. The fact that there is Fiscal Deficit and not Fiscal Surplus would mean that the government needs more money for expending that what it actually has.
16. Hence, the government will have to borrow money to finance the deficit. It may borrow from RBI (Reserve Bank of India) or even from International organizations like IMF (International Monetary Fund) or even the World Bank.
17. Every year the government plans its income and expenditure through what we popularly know as ‘Union Budget’. Fiscal Deficit is always expressed as a percentage of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which truly represents the value of economy for an year.
18. If you want to understand the concept of GDP, you may refer this thread,
https://t.co/hf9ucOopdY
Tagging @gvkreddi, @Dinesh_Sairam, @MehHarshil, @dmuthuk for better reach.
Let us spread financial literacy!

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A small thread to explain the tax implications of dividend of Rs.974 per share declared by #majesco Ltd which is winding up its business🧵👇

1. For starters, Majesco is declaring such huge dividend on account of it selling its US business. But, as an investor, should one think of buying the shares now? Let us find out.

2. The current market price per share of Majesco is Rs.980. This is almost at par with the dividend per share. Now, if you buy shares of Majesco, you will be entitled to dividend of Rs.974 per share.

3. Please keep in mind that dividend income is not exempt in the hands of the shareholders. It will be taxed as per regular slabs.

4. Say you are in highest slab of 30%, you will be taxed at that rate. To simplify you will be getting a net amount of Rs.681 per share (Rs.974- 30% tax).
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In India, 'RBI' is responsible for 'Monetary Policy' through which it controls 'Inflation' and Economic Growth'.

In this thread, I am going to focus mainly on the role of RBI and how it uses ‘CRR’ and ‘SLR’ as two major tools to control economy. 🧵👇
(1/n)

Let us first understand few basics before we dig into the details. (2/n)

👉The Businesses:
They are the producers of the goods and services. Any business would be happy if it is growing and the prices of the goods and services sold are ever rising. They would be more interested in ‘Economic growth’. (3/n)

👉The Households:
These are the people who are consumers and they spend money to buy goods/ services which are sold by the businesses. Any consumer would be happy if the prices of goods/ services are low. Hence, they would be interested in ‘Less Inflation’. (4/n)

As the prices of goods and services rise, there will be economic growth in nominal sense but then there will also be inflation which is perceived as a problem in developing countries like India. (5/n)
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A simple thread to help all understand ‘Futures and Options’ in an easy way. Though I would personally not recommend new investors to trade in F & O, but it is always good to know things. 👇🧵

#Investing #Investors #Options #Futures

1. What is a ‘Derivative’?
‘Derivative’ simply means a product which is derived or dependent on some asset. This asset is called as ‘underlying asset’.
Let me simplify this by putting this example.

Both ‘Coffee’ and ‘Tea’ require ‘Milk’ for their making (assuming that you drink it that way, of course) . Hence, if the price of ‘Milk’ increases, the prices of ‘Tea’ and ‘Coffee’ will also increase.


To sum up:
1.‘Milk’ is the independent product. So, it will be considered as ‘Underlying Asset’.
2.‘Tea’ and ‘Coffee’ derive their prices from the price of ‘Milk’. Therefore, these are ‘Derivatives’ of Milk.

Hence, the derivative of a company will derive its price from the price of the shares of a company. Thus, share of a company is the ‘underlying asset’.
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Layman’s explanation to PE Ratio and how it works.
A long thread! Do Bookmark this for patient reading.

#investing #investors #PEratio

1/ PE (Price Earning) ratio is one of the most important metric used by investors to make decisions while picking up stocks. But, more often than not, it is grossly misunderstood.
Let us decode this metric.

2/ Table of contents
•How to decide what to buy?
oCase A: Case A: Fresh Apple vs Stale Apple
oCase B: Costlier Fresh Apple v/s Cheaper Fresh Apple
oCase C: Apple vs Orange
•How to read PE ratio
•How is PE Ratio misunderstood?
•When will PE Ratio not work?

3/ How do you decide, what to buy?
Case A: Fresh Apple vs Stale Apple


You go to a market and buy an apple. You have a choice to make.
Apple ‘A’ is fresh and juicy. Apple ‘B’ is clearly stale. Apple ‘A’ costs you ₹.20 while Apple ‘B’ costs you only ₹.10.
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swapnilkabra
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An extensive yet super simple thread to understand the role of @RBI and how it uses 'Repo Rate' and 'Reverse Repo Rate' 👇🧵

You may bookmark this for further use.

#economy #RBI #financialliteracy

1. Let us first understand the role of Reserve Bank of India in managing the Indian economy.
There are two major elements of the Indian economy.

👉The Businesses:
They are the producers of the goods and services. Any business would be happy if it is growing and the prices of the goods and services sold are ever rising. They would be more interested in ‘Economic growth’.

👉 The Households: These are the people who are consumers and they spend the money to buy the goods and services which are sold by the businesses. Any consumer would be happy if the prices of the goods and services are low. Hence, they would be interested in ‘Less Inflation’.

2. As the prices of goods and services rise, there will be economic growth in nominal sense but then there will also be inflation which is perceived as a problem in developing countries like India.
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Deepti Gurdasani
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@dgurdasani1
I've been seeing a lot of discussion around the dosage gaps recommended by government for the Astra/Oxford & Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. My thoughts on the potential benefits & risks of such an approach, and the need for much greater transparency around these decisions. Thread.


The UK govt announced recently that both the Oxford & BioNTech vaccines would be now administered with a gap of between 4-12 weeks (so prioritise administration of first dose, given limited resources).

What is the basis of this?

The basis that's been discussed seems to be that
1) the first dose is likely to confer some degree of protection against disease, so better to roll this out as fast as possible, and
2) that for Oxford/Astra efficacy may be higher when the gap between doses is greater.

I discuss some of the technical details around the Oxford trial below for those interested in these. If you'd just like a summary of this, please skip to the summary tweet titled 'SUMMARY'.

What does published evidence show? The Astra/Oxford data are a bit messy because of protocol changes during the trial. This is because the trial was originally planned as a single dose trial, but a booster dose was added when developers realised that this would likely help.
GOVERNMENT
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Dr Duncan Robertson
Dr Duncan Robertson
@Dr_D_Robertson
The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.

A thread.


The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from


This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.

We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second


The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.

This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.

https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm


The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter
GOVERNMENT
Youyang Gu
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@youyanggu
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
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This NYT interview with Dr. Fauci blows the biggest hole possible in @Ken_Rosenthal's reporting from 10 days ago.

In his article, @Ken_Rosenthal wrote, "The union, by scheduling its own discussion with the same officials for a later date, avoided hearing what the government representatives suggested to MLB, according to sources: a one-month delay, with the idea of getting players..." 2/

"in time to start the season."

Within a day or two the Union had its own meeting with government officials. That was already reported, although perhaps not as widely as the original pieces claiming the Union didn't want to talk to government officials. In a previous thread 3/

I explained that the Union did not want to be on the same call with management because it would lead to the parties posturing on the call, rather than having an honest discussion with the experts, including Fauci. The Union never avoided the discussion, it just wanted 4/

a separate discussion, not a negotiation in front of COVID experts.

But, this interview undermines the original reporting further.

Fauci told the NYT:

The only thing I said was that, from a public health standpoint, it looks like the cases — if you look at the plotting of 5/
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