Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?

#BREAKING
U.S. charges political scientist Kaveh Afrasiabi with acting as an agent of #Iran's regime.

https://t.co/fsmrOtgImm

Afrasiabi is a known Tehran apologist & strongly defends the world's number one terrorist Qassem Soleimani.

"Afrasiabi was actually a secret employee of the Government of Iran & the Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN who was being paid to spread their propaganda.... he intentionally avoided registering with the Dept. of Justice as the Foreign Agents Registration Act required."

“Mr. Afrasiabi never disclosed to a congressman, journalists or others who hold roles of influence in our country that he was being paid by #Iran's gov to paint an untruthfully positive picture of the nation."

Afrasiab on CNN with Amanpour & Reza Aslan, all Iran apologists.

"For more than a decade, Mr. Afrasiabi was allegedly paid, directed & controlled by #Iran's gov to lobby U.S. gov officials, including a congressman; and to create & disseminate information favorable to the Iranian gov."

Seen here with former regime president Mohammad Khatami.

"Afrasiabi has also been secretly employed by the Iranian government and paid by Iranian diplomats assigned to the Permanent Mission of the IMUN. Afrasiabi has been paid approximately $265,000 in checks drawn on the IMUN’s official bank accounts since 2007..."

The crisis in the NHS is overwhelming this week. It has reminded me of conversations I had with my late father on how to manage within the state sector. I think they're worth sharing.

My father worked for the nationalised electricity industry from the late 1940s to late 1980s. He spent much of that time as a fairly senior engineer. He was committed to what he did. He believed electricity supply was a human right. And he sought to delver it.

He left the industry and retired when he realised that privatisation challenged what the believed in. The priority was no longer supply. It was, instead, profit. He had a clear example of the difference this made. It was about emergency management.

In his day the state electricity boards ensured that they had all the capacity they needed to manage emergencies to keep supply going as well as possible, come what may. It meant there was excess capacity. But it wasn't wasted - maintenance and training was done instead.

Privatisation saw that excess as waste, and it went. It was assumed contracts could buy in support when needed. My father believed that was dangerous - because when demand was strongest the most inexperienced people would be put to work on the job.

At least six people providing security for Roger Stone participated in the Capitol attack, our new Visual Investigation shows. Here's how the guards (all Oath Keepers) went from guarding Trump's longtime confidant to standing inside the Capitol on Jan. 6:

Mr. Stone, a convicted felon who was pardoned by Mr. Trump, has a long history as a self-proclaimed “dirty trickster” political operative. On Jan. 5 and 6, Oath Keepers provided security for him, something he himself confirmed.

We combed through hundreds of videos and photos and drew on research from @CTExposers to visually identify Mr. Stone's guards on Jan. 5 and 6. — from that group, these six entered the Capitol during the insurrection.

Here's how. On Jan. 5, Mr. Stone made two public appearances in D.C. in support of Mr. Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud. In the afternoon, he spoke in front of the Supreme Court. Five of the six Oath Keepers we’re tracking can be seen in this video.

The Oath Keepers are a far-right, anti-government militia — and there's plenty of footage to visually identify them around Mr. Stone on Jan. 5 and 6. Here's another video from that same event in front of the Supreme Court.