The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.

A thread.

The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from March.

https://t.co/UHDUTzDNkz
This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.

We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second wave.

https://t.co/EiYNLEIhQ3
The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.

This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.

https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm
The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter period.

https://t.co/T4HGsQJ5M8
Around this time, the Great Barrington Declaration was published. This changed the rhetoric from 'herd immunity' to 'focused protection'.

This was and remains non-mainstream from a scientific point of view, but was popular amongst a group of commentators

https://t.co/X7EiNhMh1T
Cases were increasing rapidly, and SAGE (the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) called for a 'circuit breaker'.

https://t.co/M3Mh8UVdxh
At the same time, a focused protection-supporting group of scientists were invited to Downing Street to present the alternate view. Politically, this enabled this headline to be written.

https://t.co/GDxBEx6Yiu
Cases grew. Another tier system was introduced to attempt to control the virus.

https://t.co/prKsIKqNh9
In a fantastic acheivement of science, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was approved on 3 December https://t.co/BZwQ3ykzrz.

Since then, the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines have been approved.
A new variant was discovered with increased transmissibility. This caused a 'lockdown' as the NHS was now in crisis mode and there was 'a material risk of the NHS in several areas being overwhelmed'. The Government's second strategy is failing.

https://t.co/3eTVHXtbkm
However, this 'lockdown' is not stringent. Many more people are allowed to send their children to school allowing the virus to mix in children and their parents.

https://t.co/mjdbnwHqC2
The Prime Minister made a strange comment on 6 January. The word 'cocoon' was back. Remember that from March?

https://t.co/MzC6O5psQs
Matt Hancock has now given an interview setting out the Government's new, third, strategy

https://t.co/n2SKYx8WFN
The strategy is about 'manageable risk'. Risk to those that may die or live with the effects of catching Covid, or risk to the Government?
We are now back to vaccinating the vulnerable - focused protection if you will.
It appears that the Government has adopted a hybrid strategy - vaccination for the 'vulnerable', and herd immunity or focused protection for those that are not. There is no discussion of vaccinating children and the under-50s.

It is clear that many more lives will be lost.

More from Government

This is a good piece on fissures within the GOP but I think it mischaracterizes the Trump presidency as “populist” & repeats a story about how conservatives & the GOP expelled the far-right in the mid-1960s that is actually far more complicated. /1

I don’t think the sharp opposition between “hard-edge populism” & “conservative orthodoxy” holds. Many of the Trump administration’s achievements were boilerplate conservatism. Its own website trumpets things like “massive deregulation,” tax cuts, etc. /2

https://t.co/N97v85Bb79


The claim that Buckley and “key GOP politicians banded together to marginalize anti-Communist extremism and conspiracy-mongering” of the JBS has been widely repeated lately but the history is more complicated. /3


This tweet by @ThePlumLineGS citing a paper by @sam_rosenfeld and @daschloz on the "porous" boundary between conservatives, the GOP and the far-right is relevant in this context.


This is a separate point but I find it interesting that Gaetz, like Roy Moore did In his failed Senate campaign, disses McConnell. What are their actual policy differences? MM supported taking health care away from millions, a tax cut for the rich, conservative judges, etc. /5

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Two known examples of such elemental spirits that had god-like status are Raja Angin (king of the wind) and Mambang Tali Arus (spirit of river currents). There were undoubtedly many more which have been lost to time

Contact with ancient India brought the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism to SEA. What we now call Hinduism similarly developed in India out of native animism and the more formal Vedic tradition. This can be seen in the multitude of sacred animals and location-specific Hindu gods