In all of those extremely high-profile appearances, he repeated his grievance that he is being quote "cancelled" and quote "muzzled." That's rich. #velshi
1/13
This past week, before he did an interview with a top-rated AM radio station in St. Louis, and THEN being interviewed on CNN, Senator @HawleyMO wrote an Op-Ed for the fourth highest circulated newspaper in America. #velshi
In all of those extremely high-profile appearances, he repeated his grievance that he is being quote "cancelled" and quote "muzzled." That's rich. #velshi
Hawley freely discussing his being "muzzled" seems lost on him as he writes about how "corporate monopolies and the left team up to shut down speech they don't like and force their political agenda on America…” #velshi
Hawley continues: "For those who still believe in free speech & the First Amendment, this is the time to take a stand." That's cute. Complaining about being cancelled while speaking on the Senate floor. Complaining about shutting down free speech in a major newspaper #velshi
Hawley seems to enjoy taking stands, he's just not overly discerning about their being rooted in truth. And when they clearly aren't rooted in the truth, Hawley believes he bears no responsibility for what he says. Hawley can apparently dish it out but can't take it #velshi
During an interview with Fox News on January 4th, Hawley was asked if he believed Donald Trump would still be President on January 20th & his response was, "Well that depends on what happens on Wednesday". #velshi
Senator Hawley was all-in on the lies about election fraud and was suggesting in that Fox interview that then Vice President Mike Pence could magically change the outcome of the election. #velshi
On Wednesday, Jan. 6, an angry mob stormed the Capitol. Hours later, Hawley, a Yale Law School grad who knew better, followed the insurrection by rejecting the decisions of literally DOZENS of judges who declared there was no voter fraud in the 2020 elections. #velshi
Hawley now claims he wasn't looking for a different outcome but was simply giving "voice" to Missourians who were concerned about allegations of fraud. Concerns Hawley himself created by repeating Trump lies and perpetuating a dangerous disinformation campaign. #velshi
Some found Hawley's actions to be a conspiracy too far and chose to question his ethics, not publish his book and in general, distance themselves from him. To Hawley, that's muzzling. #velshi
There are real people muzzled from speaking their thoughts & Sen. Hawley is not in the same zip code, area code or country code with any of them. Sen. Hawley seems to be mistaking the term "muzzled" for, what's the word I'm thinking of … responsibility? #velshi
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Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
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https://t.co/tVIdKgTPl3
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