Long thread: Because I couldn’t find anything comprehensive, I’m just going to post everything I’ve seen in the news/Twitter about Trump’s activities related to the Jan 6th insurrection. I think the timing & context of his actions/inactions will matter a lot for a senate trial.

12/12: The earlier DC protest over the electoral college vote during clearly inspired Jan 6th. On Dec 12th, he tweeted: “Wow! Thousands of people forming in Washington (D.C.) for Stop the Steal. Didn’t know about this, but I’ll be seeing them! #MAGA.” https://t.co/GiiCoFXdhl
12/19: Trump announces the Jan. 6th event by tweeting, “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Immediately, insurrectionists begin to discuss the “Wild Protest.” Just 2 days later, this UK political analyst predicts the violence https://t.co/pZDJl70eT6
12/26-27: Trump announces his participation on Twitter. On Dec. 29, the FBI sends out a nationwide bulletin warning legislatures about attacks https://t.co/Lgl4yk5aO1
1/1: Trump tweets the time of his protest. Then he retweets “The calvary is coming” on Jan. 6!” Sounds like a war? About this time, the FBI begins visiting right wing extremists to tell them not to go--does the FBI tell the president? https://t.co/3OxnB2AHdr
The violent imagery used throughout the promotion of this event needs a whole separate thread.
1/2: Trump called GA Gov. Kemp to pressure him to “find” votes for him to win. The same day, theDonald site users are openly calling for civil war on Jan 6th. Here’s the post that prompted an FBI intelligence report in VA a few days later. https://t.co/wLn59XMezR
1/5: Trump sends a series of tweets promoting the rally the next day and touting “thousands of people pouring into D.C.” as a way to dissuade “weak Republicans” from accepting the results of the election.
1/5: Trump tweets at various law enforcement, intelligence, and military agencies that he supposedly oversees about the threat from “Antifa.” At the same time, a VA FBI Office warns of a “war” at the Capitol from the far right starting the next day. https://t.co/RWQ9B2r6MX
1/6, 1:00am: Trump stays up until well after midnight tweeting that Pence can overturn the election the next day.
1/6, 8:06am: Trump is awake again and hate-watching MSNBC
1/6, 8:17: Trump continues to pressure Pence to overturn the election via Twitter:
1/6, 11:54am: Trump and Trump Jr and family are waiting for Trump to take the stage to address about 8,000 insurrectionists, pre-insurrection, at the Ellipse outside the White House https://t.co/4tAhZeoqQT
Question that I haven’t found reporting on: How much did Trump & his team know about the threats when he went ahead with his participation? Were concerns ignored or never raised? The FBI is telling extremists not to come, but not warning the president not to call for them?
1/6, 12:00-12:17pm: Trump begins his speech. At 12:17, he says that he will march with the rioters to the Capitol to demand the election be overturned. https://t.co/cUohC9JgRb
Trump/the White House apparently did not tell anyone at least in federal law enforcement that he was going to order a march to the Capitol following the speech. Was this intentional? https://t.co/QIm1sdmAz3
1/6, 12:18: Immediately after ordering the march to the capitol, Trump says you can never take back the country with weakness. https://t.co/Da2aVbHstu
1/6, 12:54pm: Trump is still reciting his normal lies about the election to the rest of the protesters a mile away as some protesters who left when Trump first said to walk arrive at the Capitol & immediately attack the Capitol police https://t.co/kk7sTvH4Ly
1/6, 1:11pm: Trump ends the speech by telling his supporters to join those who are now already inside the barricades around the Capitol fighting with the police https://t.co/H4UBETd1rp
1/6, 1:19pm: Trump returns in his motorcade to the White House. A key moment: He promised the crowd he would go to the Capitol. Was that really an open plan? Did he lie? Or did he hear about the ongoing rioting & decide against it after the speech? https://t.co/BFbtaP7EmP
According to the AP, Trump attending the riot was “discussed” by “the White House” but “abandoned” but who was involved and did this happened before or after the speech? Maybe other reporting has clarified this? https://t.co/jGn7PVYnYS
1/6, ~1:25: Back in the White House, Trump turns on the TV to watch the riots
https://t.co/1nW346QhRt
At that point, the insurrectionists look like they are still believing that Trump might be with them! https://t.co/BrFurVwebV
1/6, 1:49: Trump is tweeting a video of his speech starting the riot, which includes all the false justifications for the attack! About this time (or earlier), the Capitol Police makes the request for immediate assistance from the D.C. National Guard.
1/6, ~2:13: Congress suspends action, and Trump is apparently “enthusiastic” that the riot might stop the vote, exactly what he wanted! https://t.co/WSogQSHnQy
1/6, ~2:15: Trump calls Sen. Lee looking for Sen. Tuberville to sure up votes to overturn the election. Presumably, Sen. Lee thought Trump wanted to discuss how to stop the attack on the Capitol, not how to aid it https://t.co/dGxXlvoj6s
1/6, ~2:20: After rioters break into the capitol, Trump is watching TV, “enjoying the spectacle”
https://t.co/CNpBC9aetG
1/6, ~2:20: As chaos overtakes the Capitol, aides are telling senators that Trump is walking around the White House “delighted” with the situation and is “confused” why everyone else isn’t on board with the insurrection https://t.co/eqSdGylNqX
1/6, 2:24: Trump tweets an unhinged condemnation of VP Pence--even as the insurrectionists are just a few feet away from getting to him. His tweet provokes a scramble to find him by the insurrectionists inside the Capitol
https://t.co/BE5n0k0XlW https://t.co/LQMGPHWhEb
1/6, 2:38: After the insurrectionists seize control, Trump aides finally convince him to tweet about it, but only to say “stay” peaceful (as if they already were) and refuses to tell them to leave the Capitol--he didn’t even want to say “stay peaceful” https://t.co/CNpBC9aetG
1/6, ~2:45: Trump resists requests to act on the request to bring up the National Guard. Ultimately, VP Pence does so even without the legal authority to do so! https://t.co/4QJrxzYGXC https://t.co/K4ozkjimOK
1/6, ~2:55: Trump talks to GOP House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on the phone. McCarthy yells at Trump for refusing to take action. This conversation where Trump showed contempt for his life probably led McCarthy to blame Trump for the riot. https://t.co/a5E6HbXxwS
1/6, ~3:00: Trump is conferring with the world’s worst group of “advisors” about the situation. We know that this same group thought the entire situation was overblown by the media even the next day after everything! https://t.co/4QJrxzYGXC https://t.co/tgehnEVhZD
1/6, 3:13: Trump tweets to ask everyone “at the U.S. Capitol” (not inside attacking it) to “remain peaceful” (again, as if they were). Not to tell them to leave the capitol and stop attacking it! Rep Gallegher tweets a vid hiding in his office urging the president to call it off
1/6, ~3:45-4:17: Trump goes outside of the White House to film three takes of a video telling the “very special” insurrectionists to go home, while noting that he “loves” them. What's in the other takes? He goes inside and tweets the video at 4:17 https://t.co/CNpBC9aetG
1/6, 6:01pm: After the Capitol is secured, Trump tweets what amounts to his thanks to the insurrectionists telling them to go home and “remember this day,” revealing publicly for the first time that he believed their actions were worth remembrance.
1/6, 7pm: Giuliani calls Sen. Lee leaving a message intended for Sen. Tuberville about trying to prevent Congress from voting. Basically the same as Trump’s phone call earlier in the day. There’s reason to believe that Trump was behind this effort as well https://t.co/8D7CkvPkUv
1/7, 7:10pm: It was not until Thursday night that Trump posted a video conceding the election and that a new administration will take office. Yet he immediately regretted doing so. https://t.co/CNpBC9aetG
Questions: what did Trump know about extremists attending his speech? When/why did Trump decide against going to the Capitol? Who else was Trump calling during the riot? What're in the other takes of the video? Will anyone testify? Will Pence?
https://t.co/GCqGOdt8nh
There were also a huge number of phone calls going out to Trump, his aides & family. I didn't list them all, but having a full account of how Trump ignored all his "friends" during the crisis would be important as well.
Did Trump know his supporters saw him as backing their move? Even if he never saw analysis like this one below (because he distrusts and refuses to take meetings with his intel services), doesn't that failure only further support the case against him? https://t.co/uYOSaw2Aw4

More from Trump

1. Yes, Trump will claim to intend to target GOP senators up for reelection in '22 (like he did to Thune with Kristi Noem) if they don't join in @HawleyMO's sedition on Jan. 6, but the fact is, it's not clear whether Trump will be successful in ANY of those efforts & voting yes


2. to hedge off these threats will also create fissures & fractures for these incumbents among other elements of their party that could complicate their renominations. Indeed, what worries me the most about the potential for the country to slip into @anneapplebaum territory is

3. that what should be robust and intense push back from the party establishment against actually ending democracy- bc that's what Trump's request would do, if it was granted, is fairly muted. What we SHOULD be seeing from the mainstream of the party is threats to strip committee

4. assignments, chairs, privileges, even reelection funds, if anyone gets involved in this bullshit- in the House & the Senate, and the fact that you don't see it is more than a story of McConnell & McCarthy being afraid of Trump & his base. Its a story of receptivity, of the

5. level of receptivity the congressional and party leadership is dealing with both within the rank and file membership of the party and within its donor class, and THAT, my friends, is why you find me so concerned. That, and my decision to finally pull @anneapplebaum's book
This is mostly right but strikes me as it needing said that I don't think the left or the intelligentsia have the slightest idea how low institutional trust in anything coming from a left mouthpiece is now. Except in-network, the best heuristic is "the opposite of what they said"


If you look at the situation from a predictive models perspective instead of the more rigorous and appropriate (under normal circumstances) "prove your case or gtfo" perspective, trusting the opposite of whatever the left side says has an AMAZING track record, as we know it.

Literally, the best heuristic most people have right now, in terms of how often it gets things right versus *completely* wrong, is "whatever CNN, the NYT, public health officials, and the Democrats said... yeah, the opposite." That is, they're wrong WAY outside of statistics.

They're also not just wrong. They're *completely* wrong, backwards, often transparently covering something up that they don't want known or refuse to believe. This isn't just a legitimation crisis because there's a heuristic: whatever the official left narrative is, is wrong.

There are a few reasons why such a heuristic would be more predictive than not. One of those is conspiracy, and another is mass hysteria with ideological capture. We know at least one of those is happening and have rather strong evidence both are. That makes conspiracy reasonable
You’d think that if Pence could overturn the election like Trump claimed then Biden surely would’ve taken up that chance


Also this is such a small thing but one thing I noticed in that Trump campaign ad the defense just ran, there were no citations, unlike every clip that the impeachment managers showed

Michael Van Der Veen is giving us the full Fox News Primetime Defense.

PROCESS ARGUMENT.

DRINK.

Lol my guy this is the chance to rebut the evidence that they’ve presented against Trump.

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முதல்வரி: பிறவி என்பது முன்வினை விதையால் முளைப்பதோர் பெருமரம். அந்த ‘முன்வினை’ எங்கு ஆரம்பித்தது எனச் சொல்ல இயலாது. ஆனால் ‘அறியாமை’ ஒன்றே ஆசைக்கும்,, அச்சத்துக்கும் காரணம் என்பதால், அவையே வினைகளை விளைவிப்பன என்பதால், தொடர்ந்து வரும் பிறவிகளுக்கு, ‘அறியாமையே’ காரணம்

அறியாமைக்கு ஆரம்பம் கிடையாது. நமக்கு ஒரு பொருளைப் பற்றிய அறிவு எப்போதிருந்து இல்லை? அதைச் சொல்ல முடியாது. அதனாலேதான் முதலடியில், ஆரம்பமில்லாத அஞ்ஞானத்தை பிறவிகளுக்குக் காரணமாகச் சொல்லியது. ஆனால் அறியாமை, அறிவின் எழுச்சியால், அப்போதே முடிந்து விடும்.
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