I am going to take the context for this thread from this piece by my good brother @mabziz in 2018-3 years ago. One thing I am so perturbed about is the response of our Attorney General's office to issues of state security. I have no personal grouse against @MalamiSan, but

2. I do have a professional grouse against him. I feel he is not alive to his duties. I feel that he is also not empowering his Director of Public Prosecutions or his Solicitor General. There is clearly a lot that befuddles me and this is because I am a seasoned lawyer and can't/
3. understand why law is not being used as the instrument it was designed for-to enforce law and order. Let us take the case of Nnamdi Kanu-this man was arraigned in Nigeria on a charge of treason/treasonable felony-he was on bail & he jumped bail. Why has he not been extradited?
4. Is it that Kanu is somehow bigger than Nigeria? What has happened to his surety who failed to produce him? Who is prosecuting him? Our Federal Ministry of Justice? Should Malami not explain to Nigeria why Nnamdi Kanu is still taunting Nigeria daily & still actively destroying/
5. our unity everyday. He is putting the lives of many people at risk and stoking ethnic dissent easily. The Fulani herdsmen dilemma, the burning of Lagos State and his coordination of same on phone-in radio channels, his videos are all stoking a Yoruba/Igbo carnage. Same with/
6. the Hausa/Igbo evictions from the South East. The East now has a security outfit called ESN and they are bearing arms? Under what law is that allowed? The IGP is watching, when the problems become conflagration, the Army will be called in and bear the brunt of unfair judgement
7. Why is @MalamiSan sitting idle? Why are we not exploring diplomatic means if we are not using the law. For crying out loud, INTERPOL is here in Nigeria, fully established. Why is Nnamdi Kanu able to still be outside Nigeria. Where is the letter of our @GeoffreyOnyeama raising/
8. a diplomatic issue? Something is amiss, and I have a sense of dread in my spirit that the politicians are using as a pawn in a macabre plot. No Nigerian blood deserves to be shed for politicking. What is it that is happening behind the scenes? Malami should address the issues/
9. My questions to @MalamiSan are as follows:
(a) Under you sir, why is a fugitive still actively destroying Nigeria?
(b) Under you sir, why is the Judiciary still largely unaccountable-Is it because they know that the cases you bring before them have no bite?
(c) Why is your Justice Ministry largely seen but not heard?
(d) How come Sowore's case is so weakly prosecuted?
I have many more questions, but I pause. I know your profession sir and I know a credible/robust defence of the rule of law, and this is not it.
10. I feel better getting it off my chest. If Nigeria suffers another unrest like the aftermath of October 20, 2020, it will be because you sir have been complacent and in fact nonchalant.

More from Government

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

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