1/ Peter Bevelin, who has written books like “Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger,” provided me with a rough transcript of the Charlie Munger talk from yesterday. I did some clean up and editing and focus on points I didn’t make in my tweets yesterday.

2/ “All successful investment involves trying to get into something where it's worth more than you're paying. That's what successful investment is. There are a lot of different ways to find something worth more than you're paying. You can do what Sequoia does [e.g, in VC]."

3/ “Good investing requires a weird combination of patience and aggression and not many people have it. It also requires a big amount of self-awareness about how much you know and how much you don't know. You have to know the edge of your own competency."

4/ "A lot of brilliant people are no good knowing the edge of their own competency. They think they're way smarter than they are. Of course, that's dangerous and causes trouble.” Charlie Munger

5/ “When I was young, there was practically nobody involved in investing and they weren't very smart. Now almost everybody's smart. A good proportion of the people in investing are sucked into finance by the money. That's an important development. I don't welcome it at all."

The excellent ECB Financial Stability Review, https://t.co/k8HcqpryDF illustrates well the 2 main risks I see for the EA economy next year: possible insufficient fiscal stimulus and weakening of bank credit supply. The FSR mentions “a slightly tighter fiscal stance" in 2021 1/

The FSR correct statement “fiscal tightening at a time when output gaps are still projected to be negative could exacerbate the current economic situation.”, caused some stir and many comments in social media. The same regarding the accompanying chart 2/

The FSR uses the Commission forecasts showing a slight increase of the cyclically-adjusted primary budget balance from -3.2% this year to -2.9% in 2021. 0.3% is a small change not comparable with the mistake of 2012/13 when it went from -0.6% in 2011 to +0.5 & +1.4 in 2012/13 3/

I think the primary balance will end-up higher than those forecasts because families and firms will continue to need a lot of support in the first half of the year. Moreover, growth in 2021 is dependent on public expenditure as other demand components will not be very buoyant. 4/

As the FSR says: “A premature withdrawal of policy support and a protracted pandemic could prolong the recession and have permanent scarring effects.” Besides extending income transfers to families and firms, more public investment is indispensable for a robust recovery 5/

@nivin27 Kenneth Andrade & all his interviews ever

Newbie traders after learning F&O, look for paper trading platforms to practise. It's like the itch to swim after you learn swimming but end up in a baby pool. Experience of an adult pool vs a baby pool is different, likewise with the real markets & paper trading 🧵 (1/11)

Agreed, without experience, loading your trading account to the tilt and trading can be disastrous 🌋, but that does not mean you will have to paper trade forever. No matter how much you paper trade, you will never get the experience of trading (2/11)

When I talk about trading, I’m not just talking about experiencing the P&L rush. IMHO, experiencing the P&L and how it can vary in real-time is the last thing. There are multiple other things that you need to get comfortable with before diving into full-fledged trading 🏊‍♂️(3/11)

Stuff like placing limit/market order, GTT, AMO. Practising how SL-L for long & short positions works, trailing stops, figuring how margins work, M2M, T+1, T+2 settlements - the list is endless😩 with several moving parts. No paper trading platform gives you the real deal (4/11)

Here is a hack, though - instead of paper trading, try and place an actual trade on a low-value futures contract. My favourite is USD INR 💱, it costs just under 2K per contract, but gives you the whole trading experience (5/11)

Irresistible to leave this moment alone - a thread to share some investment lessons:

1/ Size matters.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed.

2/ WSB/Reddit captured a market inefficiency.

Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.

How it happened and what it means has rampant ramifications, but in this moment the individuals captured the anomaly.

3/ Be careful dismissing “in theory” for those rare moments when it becomes “in practice.”

Keynes said “markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.” I suspect this won't take down any significant hedge fund, but it definitely hurts.

3b/ Be careful dismissing “in theory” for those rare moments when it becomes “in practice.”

Academic finance teaches that “a short sale has unlimited downside and limited upside. Those events almost never play out, until they do.

Next 10 years in FinTech.

The Fintech tsunami is happening, and there is no way back.

Long thread 🧵👇🏼

1) In 2030, the largest “bank” in the world will not-be-a-bank.🏦 Think- Square, Stripe, Affirm, AntFin, PayPal, etc. Many large asset categories are still untouched by Fintechs, and once that starts to happen, several new ~$100BN - $500BN 💰 companies will be created.

2) Major economies will have low or no-Cash 💵; primarily due to ‘digitization-of everything’, and CBDC. Major central banks will transition to a digital currency paradigm, where national currencies will compete on features (like software does) as well as economics.

3) Credit Bureaus will become redundant. The 'spending-to-income-habits' indicator will overtake credit score. In the new decade: How responsibly one spends the money will become a stronger indicator of creditworthiness than all bureau data scores.

4) Algorithms— built into MoneyOS — will automatically refinance debt to the lowest possible rate, triggering massive compression in profit pools for banks. These “Systems of Intelligence” companies will create massive value.

THREAD AWS $AMZN
AMZN has 15Xed in 6 years (~$60bn->~$1tr). Along the way there have been many investor concerns, which have in hindsight been "can't see the forest for the trees" nitpicks: 1) AWS not profitable; 2) AWS price cuts; 3) Depr acctg; 4) Too much start up exposure.

First to establish valuation. I don’t think it is controversial to say that AWS is worth ~$1tr+ today annualizing nearly $50bn in revs this past Q, ~35% GAAP Op Margins growing ~30% in COVID times. In 2021, AWS will likely put up around ~$58BN in revenue (MSe).

While IaaS is not SaaS, applying even the lower end of Software universe multiples to this level of growth (not to mention profitability or any analysis of how great the business is) would get you to a $1trillion value: 16X EV/Sales ~$60bn in revs ~= $1tr.

And AWS is a lot more profitable than most software companies (today). On a P/E basis, this equates to ~60X 2021 GAAP EPS (assumes 20% Tax rate).
 
Looking back on it, it is funny to think about a few of the past AWS bear cases/worries:

1) AWS not profitable
AMZN first disclosed AWS financials on the 1Q15 print. Before AMZN disclosed AWS revs/EBIT, the consensus was the MORE unprofitable AWS was, the better it was for AMZN’s stock because it meant the retail business was even more profitable than people thought.

1/ A thread [1/2]about your NHS pensions, tax & the age discrmination “McCloud” case👇

OK this is complicated stuff, Im going to take you through it step by step. But its important, and will affect your pension, so buckle up and pay attention!

Please share & RT/share awareness

2/ To understand “McCloud” let's rewind to yesteryear- you gave a lifetime of public service & (deservingly) got a good “final salary” pension.

Broadly in 1995 (or “legacy”) pension scheme, each year you got 1/80th of your “final salary” as a pension & 3/80th a tax free lump sum

3/ Back in yesteryear, pensions cost 5 or 6% gross salary. For example you worked 37 years & final salary £120k, pension= 37/80ths x £120k=£55,500. You would get this at normal retirement age- 60yrs & it would be index linked to inflation, plus a lump sum (3/80ths) of £166,500

4/ So roll on 2006-08 & government were worried about affordability of the scheme. Life expectancy was increasing so people were in retirement longer. So they made the scheme more expensive & introduced a new “2008” section for new entrants. The 08 scheme removed the lump sum

5/ Existing 95 members had a “choice” to move to ‘08’ scheme. It had a higher retirement age (65) but paid a higher “accrual rate” (60ths not 80ths). Rather than “final salary” (best of last 3 yrs) it was based on a more complicated “reckonable” pay based on best 3/10 yrs pay.

1/ Thread: $GOOG 4Q'20 Update

For the first time, GOOG segmented its cloud revenues/income separately, and overall revenue was >20% in 4Q which led to +7% after-hours reaction yesterday.

Here are my notes from earnings/press release.

2/ In the last quarter, here is the segment-wise growth:

Search +17.4%
YouTube ads +46.0%
Google Network Members +22.9%
Cloud +46.6%

Cloud more than doubled in the last two years.
Other bets losses $4.5 Bn in 2020 (vs $4.8 Bn in 2019)

3/ Operating margin in Q4 ~28%
FCF margin in Q4 ~30%

One of the big takeaways was the core business was even MORE profitable than most investors thought since cloud had -42.9% operating margin.

$GOOG's search business is a good comp for Fed in terms of "printing" money. JK.

4/ "you can track takeout and delivery orders when you book or order from Google Maps"

"More than 0.5 million channels livestreamed on YouTube for the first time in 2020"

"videos in our new Shorts player are receiving 3.5 billion daily views."

5/ Google Pay app is now used by >150 mn people in 30 countries.

Cloud backlog $30 Bn now (from $19 Bn in Q3)

# of Deals >$250 Mn became >3x

Waymo is providing hundreds of fully AV rides per week

Retail searches >3x YoY

Cloud operating losses flat YoY

1/ Mission Statements 🧵

I used to think mission statements were just corporate fluff

False words that companies created for HR reasons

I've slowly changed my mind about them

They are THE BEST stakeholder alignment & decision-making tool ever

EVER!

Need convincing? ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ What is a mission statement?

At its core, a mission statement should answer this question:

*****Why does the company exist?*****

A profound question that is easy to overlook!

3/ When used properly

Mission Statements should guide ALL of the actions of the organization

It's like a company's North Star

If an activity doesn’t advance the mission,

it should be discarded!

If an activity does advance the mission,

it should be adopted!

4/ A Mission and a Vision statement are different

Mission: WHY the company exists

Vision: What the company/world looks like if the company is successful

Both important, but they are NOT interchangeable

5/ The reason I used to think mission statements didn't matter

is because the vast majority of companies/CEOs

don't believe they matter!

Most companies SUCK at creating & communicating them!

Why should employees/shareholders care about a mission

if the company/CEO doesn't?

1/ Brief history & Roadmap of @CreamdotFinance

One of the fastest shipping teams in DeFi

You see so many people on Twitter saying

"Infosys ADR is up 5% today."

"ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank ADR ended highly positive today. Good move coming up for Banknifty."

Have you ever wondered what is ADR? You're not alone.

Time for a thread. 👇👇👇

1/ Back in the early 1900s, people were buying shares in foreign countries in the respective country's exchanges (many still do).

There are few issues with that:

- Complexity of the purchase
- Currency conversion issues
- Difficulty in transactions

and so on.

2/ JP Morgan saw this, and thought

"what if people could trade foreign companies

- in our country
- in our currency
- but without the companies having to list themselves here?"

ADR was born.

3/ ADR stands for American Depository Receipts.

It's like a share certificate, issued by a U.S depository bank (like CDSL here), but on a foreign company.

Usually one ADR unit represents one share of the foreign company.

4/ Here's how it works.

The depository bank buys the foreign company shares in the foreign exchange.

This depository bank holds the purchased shares as inventory.

It issues respective ADR for domestic trading.

The ADR is issued & traded in US Dollars.

What a privilege it was to host @Gautam__Baid for my first ever Twitter Spaces event along with @dadalife369 and @Finvents.

While we wait for the YouTube recording. Here are 8 of my biggest takeaways from today's session.

#investing

1 - Start by coming up with a portfolio allocation strategy based on your aims and objectives for investing. Include flexibility, tracking and rebalancing as part of your strategy.

2 - Learn from those who succeeded before you to ultimately develop your own investing style

Here are three books that influence @Gautam__Baid's investing style - They are some of the best books in investing along with Gautam's The Joys of Compounding.

3 - Develop a robust repository of sources from which you can generate investment ideas.

Here are the ones @Gautam__Baid uses.

It is a super-comprehensive list.

4 - Focus on the process as opposed to the outcomes. This is very important.

Developing a superior process leads to the repeatability of exceptional outcomes.

Exclusive: Alleged RCMP mole accused of selling secrets to kingpin money launderer and terror-financier’s network | https://t.co/6oS5jHrnWQ https://t.co/evpm0Eh9S6 @CullenInquiryBC

1. I'll unpack a few points from this ongoing investigation by Global News into the Ortis case. The allegations against Ortis, from my investigation, are very international in scope, and could not be more relevant to the work of @CullenInquiryBC

2. If you have the impression that Ottawa has been asleep at the wheel with issues of transnational drug cartels using Canadian cities as giant money laundering vehicles, that would be partly correct, in my years of expertise. But the Ortis case alleges something else going on.

3. What my investigation shows, is the case against Cameron Ortis -- who was one of the most influential leaders in RCMP and top intel official -- is he was allegedly corrupt and compromised a Five Eyes probe of a global kingpin money launderer.

4. In order to understand the case, it can't be stressed enough how important the Altaf Khanani money laundering organization is to drug trafficking and terrorist attacks worldwide, according to the DEA.

Want to know why Bill Gates has acquired 242,000 acres of farmland across the U.S.? That's more than anyone.

Let's explore the aspects of the End Game plan.
Agenda 21

A

If you're a college student who wants to pay off all your loans... here's an idea for you:

It takes ~$5k to start and will make ~$30k a year of profit

It won't get you rich, it'll pay for college.

(..and will teach them more about business than they’ll learn in school)

The idea isn’t sexy. But it works:

**Plastic Moving Bin Rentals**

Everyone knows moving sucks. The worst part is being stuck with 400 cardboard boxes at the end of your move.

Instead - @benmlevy told me about Gorilla Bins. They dropoff plastic moving bins, & pickem up later.

Let’s break it down. Our goal is to pay for college (~$30k profit per year).

To do that, I think we’ll need $50k in revenue.

The avg move (a 2 bedroom apartment) is $180

To hit our goal, we need do ~5.5 moves per week

COSTS?

How many bins do we need to buy up front?

5.5 moves a week x 50 bins = you need 275 bins. Let’s round up to 300 to be safe.

Ok let’s hop over to @uline to see how much these bins cost

Bingo. Bins cost about $15 a piece.

$15 x 300 bins = $4,500 initial startup costs.

Time to beg your parents or a rich aunt to lend you money to get the biz rolling (...or just take $5k of student loan money and invest it here…)

1/16
Was reading upon #Biases & learnt a lot. Thought of sharing a few pointers .
Simply put Bias is a disproportionate weight in favour of or against any idea/thing in all aspects of life.
Few types of Biases ( out of the many) with not so random images. :)
+

2/16
The #DunningKruger effect now is fairly well known , wherein people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence, whilst the actually knowledgeable question themselves often .
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge".
+

3/16
*#SelfServingBias*
A very interesting bias wherein we credit our successes to purely ourselves, but when things go awry we cite luck & external forces .
Rings any bells?
Basically a defence mechanism to protect our self esteem & eventually from personal responsibility.

4/16
* #ConfirmationBias *
We all favour ideas & beliefs that affirm to our existing ones' , rarely being open to contradictory opinions .
(Especially in markets !! 😬) Why?

Laziness? Mental block? Ego ?
No wonder, Birds of a feather flock together ... 😉

5/16
* #SunkCostBias *
As we know, sunk costs are irrecoverable , regardless of outcomes. (Eg Money expended towards R&D for a molecule which doesn't work out)
But this actually extends in any investment we make - Time,Money, Effort, Relationships ...😏
Interesting right?