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Trung Phan 🇨🇦
@TrungTPhan 4 years, 7 months ago 1112 views

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The most memorable interview I did this year was w/ Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously made $1B shorting the British Pound.

The trading legend's track record includes a 30-year stretch returning 30%+ a year (without a single down year).

Here are 8 investing lessons🧵

1/ Make concentrated bets in high conviction plays

2/ Concentrated bets can sometimes *reduce* risk

3/ Use a multi-disciplinary approach to investing

4/ Know when to sell (he never uses a stop loss)

5/ You will fight emotions your entire career

6/ His biggest investing mistake came in 2000 when he let emotions overpower his discipline

7/ If you don’t *really* love investing, you will get beat by those who do

8/ Find what *actually* makes a stock goes up or down

9/ If you enjoyed that, I write 1-2x interesting threads a week.

Follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

Here's one you might like: https://t.co/B3SWUCF2cd

ASML is the most important company you've never heard of.

The $300B+ Dutch firm makes the machines that make semiconductors. Each one costs $150m and access to them are a huge geopolitical flashpoint.

Here's a breakdown \U0001f9f5 pic.twitter.com/pARj3x7Kwo
— Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6 (@TrungTPhan) August 22, 2021

10/ PS. I also write a Saturday newsletter digging up the most interesting (and mostly hilarious) nuggets from around the web.

https://t.co/jGZs8brnVR

11/ Here's the full Q&A (audio, text) with Druckenmiller. It covers his views on the tech stocks, inflation, Wall Street Bets, crypto (BTC, ETH, DOGE), China and more:

https://t.co/N7MqxWj2ks

12/ One more: Be able to change your mind (before losing $3B in 2000, Druckenmiller pulled a stunning 180-degree turn in 1999)

(This story is courtesy of the Financial Times)

13/ Here is Stan’s guess for the first FAAMG company to reach $5T

More from Trung Phan 🇨🇦

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

The Wall Street Bets due diligence on Wendy’s is gold.

The catalysts are:
◻️ The release of a new summer salad
◻️ The @Wendys Twitter account, which has mastered “meta pragmatic roasting” (which is effective with younger people)
◻️ The fact it literally sells chicken tendies

OP:

Here’s a more fundamentals-driven analysis of Wendy’s

https://t.co/A2k19S9M7J

😂😂😂

\u201cThe name of the company is Wendy\u2019s International $WEN. It is a cutting edge high tech firm out of rural Ohio that is awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of summer salads that have both huge military and civilian applications.\u201d pic.twitter.com/qmk4hkKL3N
— u/1ronyman (@1ronyman1) June 8, 2021

Further Wendy’s analysis from @CliffordAsness !!

$\U0001d683\U0001d69b\U0001d69e\U0001d697\U0001d690 \U0001d67f\U0001d691\U0001d68a\U0001d697 \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

𝚃𝚛𝚞𝚗𝚐 𝙿𝚑𝚊𝚗 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

1/ Marcus Bullock went to prison in the mid-90s at the age of 15.

Today, he's the CEO of Flikshop -- the "Instagram for the Incarcerated", an alternative to the outrageously expensive phone call system.

This is a truly inspirational founder story 👇👇

2/ In 1996, Bullock was living in Maryland. One night, he and a friend carried out an armed carjacking on a man sitting idle in a shopping mall parking lot.

It was the biggest mistake of this life.

3/ Several years prior to hit actions, there was the famed 1989 Central Park "Jogger Case", in which 5 minority youths were (falsely) accused of raping a jogger.

In the aftermath, nearly every state passed new laws that made it easier for courts to try youth as adults.

4/ For the carjacking, Bullock was charged as an adult and served 8 years in prison.

With onerous prison phone charges ($18 / 15 mins), Bullock's mother kept in touch with him by sending a photo or letter every day.

"She saved me," he says of his mom's efforts.

5/ The $1.2B+ prison phone system is dominated by 2 PE-backed firms (Global Tel Link, Securus Tech).

For the right to operate these phones lines, prisons effectively pay kickbacks to state and local government. The highest kickbacks win bids, which drive up costs.

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𝚃𝚛𝚞𝚗𝚐 𝙿𝚑𝚊𝚗 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

1/ Amazon is famous for its writing culture:

• "Mock press releases / FAQs" for new product pitches
• "6-page memos" instead of Powerpoint

Two former Amazon execs wrote a book called "Working Backwards" detailing the philosophy.

Here are some insights 🧵

2/ The "Working Backwards" playbook

Instead of creating a product then finding customers, Amazon asks "What does the customer need?" and works toward the product.

✅Customer need --> Create product
❌Create product --> Find customer

3/ Write a mock press release

To determine if the customer need makes biz sense, employees write a press release:

• What problem is the new product solving
• Why it's better than existing options

To persuade a customer, the document has to be jargon-free and tell a story.

4/ Press release forces big thinking

You don't write a press release for an incremental improvements.

Creating a product worthy of a press release means really solving a customer problem and going after markets with large TAMs.

5/ Include an FAQ in press release

Addressing every potential customer question can help identify hurdles to getting something to market...and also uncover opportunities.

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

Peter Thiel's 2014 Reddit AMA is full of nuggets 🧵

1/ His biggest investing mistake was *not* doubling down on Facebook

2/ Thoughts when he first met Elon

3/ Whether he has a "ban" on hiring MBAs

4/ Why he invested in SpaceX

5/ His reaction to the movie The Social Network

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵

The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.

The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.

Winner's Curse

In an auction, the winning bid will usually exceed the intrinsic worth of an item leading to a significant overpay (and negative net profit for the winner).

Braess's Paradox

Removing an extra road can make everyone's commute time faster.

Why? The existence of a "fast" road leads to congestion because everyone uses it. If you remove the shortcut, traffic flows better.

More from Finance

Operation Cupcake
@PhillipsBarrie

Jess Phillips is funded by a Luxury Property Developer behind a number of controversial schemes. The register of financial interests lists a donation totaling £6,000 from Court Consultants. Plus a £8,000 a year sideline from the Tories. #LabourLeaks

Jess Phillips MP’s office is funded by a property developer criticised for not including enough affordable housing in his tower blocks. #LabourLeaks

Court Consultants is controlled by Birmingham property developer Anthony McCourt. He is a longstanding financial backer of Jess Phillips. In 2017, Anthony McCourt also gave £3,000 to Phillips to help with the running of her local Labour party.

Councils try to oblige property developers to build some affordable housing in their new buildings in return for planning permission. But recent developments involving Antony McCourt failed to meet even these limited attempts by councils to increase the amount lower-cost housing.

McCourt runs his developments through his other company, Court Collaboration. Recent Court Collaboration schemes have also been criticised for not containing enough affordable housing. #LabourLeaks

Roger C. Schonfeld
@rschon

Wiley buys Hindawi -- a $298 million acquisition for GBP 25 million in annual APC revenues -- in bid to expand open-access platforms @pbasken

I'm really fascinated by several things about this acquisition. 1. One could posit that APC business models in structural decline as they are replaced by transformative agreements. Will Hindawi titles be folded into Wiley TA's or offered as a separate "pure publish" model?

2. Seems that there is little concern about geopolitical risk: "Wiley…saw value in Hindawi’s strong position in Asia, the world’s largest and fastest growing academic publishing market…“Hindawi’s significant footprint in in China is a major benefit from that perspective”"

3. It seems some in the academic community continue to be "alarmed" when, after taking advantage of private capital to fund commercial start-ups for open access services (bepress; SSRN; now Hindawi), that capital looks to sell in search of returns. As if this is a surprise!

4. Most interesting will be to see how this expansion of Wiley's OA portfolio and platforms/workflows/services can connect with its important businesses in support of society publishing.

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Investment Books
@InvestmentBook1

Thread Best books recommendation by one of best investor I knew @insharebazaar (Virtually)

He grab many multibagger stocks and His style also unique(1st Seen interview in @TraderHarneet's YT Channel)

He follow Simple process

Young Intelligent Investor who also appeared in ET

1. One Up On Wall Street

2. Rich Dad Poor Dad

Access here : https://t.co/UWOCF732z6

3. The Unusual Billionaires

4. Trading in the Zone

https://t.co/G7mqVPtEM0

5. Market Wizards

6. The Intelligent Investor

https://t.co/yPKBzYyPAl

7. The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing

8. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

https://t.co/PiioB3hdHP

Maureen Fitzsimmons
@mojos55

@BylineTimes
1. The £22 billion Test and Trace system had a ‘relatively small’ effect on the R-number, a new evaluation from the Department of Health and Social Care has found.
2. EXCLUSIVE Firm Chaired by Government Procurement Advisor Awarded £38 Million Contract –

Vidya
@VidyaG88

1/16
Was reading upon #Biases & learnt a lot. Thought of sharing a few pointers .
Simply put Bias is a disproportionate weight in favour of or against any idea/thing in all aspects of life.
Few types of Biases ( out of the many) with not so random images. :)
+

2/16
The #DunningKruger effect now is fairly well known , wherein people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence, whilst the actually knowledgeable question themselves often .
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge".
+

3/16
*#SelfServingBias*
A very interesting bias wherein we credit our successes to purely ourselves, but when things go awry we cite luck & external forces .
Rings any bells?
Basically a defence mechanism to protect our self esteem & eventually from personal responsibility.

4/16
* #ConfirmationBias *
We all favour ideas & beliefs that affirm to our existing ones' , rarely being open to contradictory opinions .
(Especially in markets !! 😬) Why?

Laziness? Mental block? Ego ?
No wonder, Birds of a feather flock together ... 😉

5/16
* #SunkCostBias *
As we know, sunk costs are irrecoverable , regardless of outcomes. (Eg Money expended towards R&D for a molecule which doesn't work out)
But this actually extends in any investment we make - Time,Money, Effort, Relationships ...😏
Interesting right?

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$XVIII Airborne Corps\U0001f409$

XVIII Airborne Corps🐉...
@18airbornecorps

1 of 16: WE ARE ALL JEWS HERE: THE STORY OF RODDIE EDMONDS

One of the most moving and relevant stories of the Battle of the Bulge, or any American Soldier in any war, is that of Master Sergeant Roddie Edmonds, a Knoxville, Tennessee native, who served with the 106th Infantry.

2 of 16:

Roddie was captured early on in the Battle of the Bulge, on December 19th, when Panzer forces plowed through his unit.

He, along with almost his entire regiment, was forced to surrender.

3 of 16:

The men were transported to the Stalag IX-A POW camp in Ziegenhain, Germany.

Roddie was the senior enlisted American Soldier at the site. As such, he was the conduit between all American Soldiers and their German captors.

4 of 16:

In late January, the camp’s commandant, Major Siegmann [pictured here], ordered Roddie, a Christian, to identify all Jewish Soldiers and order them to stand in formation by themselves the next day.

[Jewish Soldiers were a minority within American units]

5 of 16:

Throughout WWII, captured Jewish Soldiers were often tortured and then killed by their German captors.

In fact, Jewish Soldiers had been told to bury their dog tags before capture. The dog tag identified Jews with the letter “H” for Hebrew.

$Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5

Nanganallur Anjaneya Temple
#Chennai
#Tamilnadutemples 🚩

Bhaktha Anjaneya temple at Nanganallur in Chennai is one among tallest Anjaneyar Vigraham. Here Anjaneyar blesses with relief to all illness. Vigraham is about 32 feet height made of single stone.
Anjaneyar here is 👇

Sri Vishwaroopa Aadhivyathihara Baktha Anjaneya Swamy.

Sthala Puranam says that, this is the place where Indra Deva hit Hanuman on the cheek by his Vajrastram. Sri Raghavendra Swami and Sri Kanchi Paramacharyar were behind in building this temple. Temple is constructed to

Realize power of Anjaneyar who is seen both in Ramayana and Mahabharatha.
Vadamalai is important offering to Anjaneyar here. It is believed that vigraham contain powers to heal any disease. Shri Ramanavami is celebrated here.

Jai Sri Ram
Jai Hanuman
🙏🕉🙏

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STEALTH JEFF
@drawandstrike

Ok I was wrong about theHouse. 2 years of legislative gridlock = not fun. Few bills passing.

Control of the House is useless when it comes to keeping Trump from declassifying all the SpyGate docs. Or stopping an Inspector General from releasing a report.

Trump still gets control of judicial appointments so we can expect another 100 judges over the next two years. This time there’ll be no McCain or Flake playing the Maverick role with their swing vote.

That new margin in the Senate is huge if another Supreme Court seat comes open.

So from the responses I’m getting, people seem to think if Trump declassifies the Spygate stuff now, nothing happens.

Are you under the impression federal prosecutors have to wait until CONGRESS finishes an investigation and makes criminal referrals before the DOJ can act?

There’s a federal grand jury on McCabe right now. Did Congress ever finish it’s investigation and make a referral to the DOJ against him?

No.

BUT INSPECTOR GENERAL HOROWITZ DID. On finishing his McCabe leak report.

Funny how nobody remembers that.

Kaspars Ozolins
@lettlander

THREAD: Meditations on marriage metaphors in Ruth

The book of Ruth is, of course, a story about a beautiful marriage. But even before the courtship and the wedding and the important genealogy at the end, we find interesting language that is strikingly reminiscent of Genesis 2:24

That important verse reads:

'Therefore a man shall leave [יַֽעֲזָב] his father and his mother and hold fast [וְדָבַ֣ק] to his wife, and they shall become one flesh.'

The verb עזב can be quite strong in force. For example, Joseph leaves behind [וַיַּעֲזֹ֤ב] his garment as he flees from Pharaoh's wife's sexual advances. Countless times, Israel is depicted abandoning the LORD, for example in Judg 2:12 [וַיַּעַזְב֞וּ], and going after other gods.

Likewise, the verb דבק is rather striking. Lot is mortified of disaster overtaking him [תִּדְבָּקַ֥נִי] as he flees from Sodom. Israel is commanded in Deut 10:20 to cling fast [תִדְבָּ֔ק] to the LORD and serve him and swear by his name.

Together they illustrate how radical God designed marriage to be. Marriage is a real severing of family relations in order to form a new, permanent bond with another human being.

Something very similar to this takes places in Ruth's life.

Pegasus of Dharma
@HarduttSuhas

THE EVOLUTION OF OUR NATIONAL FLAG (1857-1947)

The INDIAN NATIONAL FLAG is not just a flag! It's a testimony of patriotism and seamless sacrifice. A symbol representing one of the oldest civilizations on this planet.

Let's hope what happened yesterday never repeats!

(Thread)

After the revolt of 1857, the first Indian flag was designed. The design was based on western heraldic standards with "Union Jack" in the upper-left quadrant and a "Star of India" enclosed in the royal crown in the middle of the right half.(1)

The flag was a symbol of the direct imperial rule in India.(2)

In 1904 the first Indian flag which stood for India's independence from the British was devised. The design was provided by sister Nivedita, an Irish disciple of Swami Vivekananda.(3)

The flag was red and yellow with an image 'Vajra' (weapon of god Indra). The phrase 'Vande Mataram' was written in Bengali on it. The red colour and the yellow colour signified freedom and victory while the symbol of vajra stood for strength.(4)