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Trung Phan 🇨🇦
@TrungTPhan 2 years, 4 months ago 403 views

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The most memorable interview I did this year was w/ Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously made $1B shorting the British Pound.

The trading legend's track record includes a 30-year stretch returning 30%+ a year (without a single down year).

Here are 8 investing lessons🧵

1/ Make concentrated bets in high conviction plays

2/ Concentrated bets can sometimes *reduce* risk

3/ Use a multi-disciplinary approach to investing

4/ Know when to sell (he never uses a stop loss)

5/ You will fight emotions your entire career

6/ His biggest investing mistake came in 2000 when he let emotions overpower his discipline

7/ If you don’t *really* love investing, you will get beat by those who do

8/ Find what *actually* makes a stock goes up or down

9/ If you enjoyed that, I write 1-2x interesting threads a week.

Follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

Here's one you might like: https://t.co/B3SWUCF2cd

ASML is the most important company you've never heard of.

The $300B+ Dutch firm makes the machines that make semiconductors. Each one costs $150m and access to them are a huge geopolitical flashpoint.

Here's a breakdown \U0001f9f5 pic.twitter.com/pARj3x7Kwo
— Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6 (@TrungTPhan) August 22, 2021

10/ PS. I also write a Saturday newsletter digging up the most interesting (and mostly hilarious) nuggets from around the web.

https://t.co/jGZs8brnVR

11/ Here's the full Q&A (audio, text) with Druckenmiller. It covers his views on the tech stocks, inflation, Wall Street Bets, crypto (BTC, ETH, DOGE), China and more:

https://t.co/N7MqxWj2ks

12/ One more: Be able to change your mind (before losing $3B in 2000, Druckenmiller pulled a stunning 180-degree turn in 1999)

(This story is courtesy of the Financial Times)

13/ Here is Stan’s guess for the first FAAMG company to reach $5T

More from Trung Phan 🇨🇦

Trung Phan
@TrungTPhan

Steve Jobs famously said innovation is "saying no to 1000 things" before you say yes.

For more than a decade, Apple has used Pablo Picasso's Bull to drive home the lesson.

Here's a breakdown 🧵

In Dec. 1945, Picasso created "The Bull", a series of 11 lithographs (stone prints).

With each successive print, a bull is simplified and abstracted. Picasso's goal was to find "spirit of the beast".

At Apple, employees are taught this philosophy.

Below are the 1st, 4th and last stone print.

The bull progresses from:
◻️a realistic drawing
◻️to a deconstructed image w/ the famous "abstract" style
◻️to lines outlining a shape

Through 11 iterations, Picasso simplified the image until it captured the "essence" of the bull.

Picasso said of the abstraction process:

"Two holes. That’s the symbol for the face, enough to evoke it without representing it. But isn’t it strange that it can be done through such simple means? Whatever is most abstract may perhaps be the summit of reality.”

Enter Apple University.

In 2008, Steve Jobs tapped the dean of Yale School of Management to create an internal training curriculum for Apple.

The program was meant to teach new employees Apple's culture and design philosophy (the teachings are rarely shared with the public).

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

For decades, Jeff Bezos shunned ads.

But now, Amazon’s ad business is huge: it’s on a $30B+ annual run rate (more than 2x the combined sales of Twitter, Snap and Pinterest).

Here’s how it happened 🧵

1/ Amazon doesn’t break out its ad business separately in financial filings. However, most analyst believe ads make up the majority of its “Other” revenue segment.

This figure has exploded from $1B in 2015 to a current annual run rate of ~$32B.

2/ In 2009, Bezos said “ads are the price you pay for a crappy product”.

But the business is so lucrative that Amazon’s interface has been swamped with ads:

◻️ First 3-7 search results (left in red)
◻️ Most of the product page (right in blue)

3/ Prior to the rise of ads, Amazon set out to build the ultimate organic customer recommendations engine.

The approach was codified in a famed 2003 research paper: “Amazon Recommendations: Item-to-Item Collaborative Filtering.”

4/ In recent years, Amazon organic recommendations:

◻️"Customers who bought this also bought this"
◻️"Customers who viewed also viewed"

Have been replaced w/ ads:

◻️ "Sponsored products related to"
◻️ "Brands related to this category"

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$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

A Netflix user will browse the app for 90 seconds and leave if they find nothing.

Thumbnail artwork is actually NFLX's most effective lever to influence a viewer's choice. A user will look at one for only 1.8 seconds, so NFLX spends huge to optimize them.

Here's a breakdown🧵

1/ Spoiler alert: humans are visual animals.

Our eyes move 3-4x per second to process information and we can analyze an image in as little as 13 milliseconds.

2/ In 2014, Netflix consumer research showed that thumbnail artwork:

◻️ is "the biggest influencer...to watch content"
◻️ is the focus of 82% of browsing time

A user looks at one for only 1.8 seconds. If they can't find Netflix content in 90 seconds, they'll leave the app.

3/ Consequently, Netflix uses an elaborate thumbnail selection process for each of its 200m+ users.

The process is called aestethic visual analysis (AVA), which starts by pulling all the frames from a video.

For reference: a 1hr episode of "Stranger Things" has 86k frames.

4/ In a process known as "Frame Annotation", each frame is tagged with metadata identifying key variables:

◻️ Saliency
◻️ Frame #
◻️ Brightness / Contrast
◻️ Nudity probability
◻️ Face / skin tone

$\U0001d683\U0001d69b\U0001d69e\U0001d697\U0001d690 \U0001d67f\U0001d691\U0001d68a\U0001d697 \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

𝚃𝚛𝚞𝚗𝚐 𝙿𝚑𝚊𝚗 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

1/ Amazon is famous for its writing culture:

• "Mock press releases / FAQs" for new product pitches
• "6-page memos" instead of Powerpoint

Two former Amazon execs wrote a book called "Working Backwards" detailing the philosophy.

Here are some insights 🧵

2/ The "Working Backwards" playbook

Instead of creating a product then finding customers, Amazon asks "What does the customer need?" and works toward the product.

✅Customer need --> Create product
❌Create product --> Find customer

3/ Write a mock press release

To determine if the customer need makes biz sense, employees write a press release:

• What problem is the new product solving
• Why it's better than existing options

To persuade a customer, the document has to be jargon-free and tell a story.

4/ Press release forces big thinking

You don't write a press release for an incremental improvements.

Creating a product worthy of a press release means really solving a customer problem and going after markets with large TAMs.

5/ Include an FAQ in press release

Addressing every potential customer question can help identify hurdles to getting something to market...and also uncover opportunities.

$Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6$

Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan

Peter Thiel's 2014 Reddit AMA is full of nuggets 🧵

1/ His biggest investing mistake was *not* doubling down on Facebook

2/ Thoughts when he first met Elon

3/ Whether he has a "ban" on hiring MBAs

4/ Why he invested in SpaceX

5/ His reaction to the movie The Social Network

More from Finance

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years

What do you think/use as the most robust leading indicator if following technical analysis ? Please answer with reason , I will provide my answer after 2 hours
( At Delhi airport , bored as hell )
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) August 12, 2019

This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them

$Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8$

Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK

The British Railway Mania

How a disruptive technology created the biggest speculative bubble in the history of England

/THREAD/

1/ Railways were the most disruptive technology of the 19th century, known as the "railway age", transforming England from an agricultural to an industrialized nation.

2/ The development of railway infrastructure and locomotives started at the end of the 18th century but experienced immense growth after 1830.

3/ Hundreds of railway related bills were passed every year with proposed rails totaling 10,000 miles, a third of which was never built due to poor financial planning, competition, or fraud.

4/ In the mid-1840s, the Bank of England cut interest rates rendering government bonds unattractive, and investors more willing to rush in the railway investments.

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Ted Seides
@tseides

Irresistible to leave this moment alone - a thread to share some investment lessons:

1/ Size matters.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed.

2/ WSB/Reddit captured a market inefficiency.

Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.

How it happened and what it means has rampant ramifications, but in this moment the individuals captured the anomaly.

3/ Be careful dismissing “in theory” for those rare moments when it becomes “in practice.”

Keynes said “markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.” I suspect this won't take down any significant hedge fund, but it definitely hurts.

3b/ Be careful dismissing “in theory” for those rare moments when it becomes “in practice.”

Academic finance teaches that “a short sale has unlimited downside and limited upside. Those events almost never play out, until they do.

Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP

Does increase in Inflation & hence interest rates lead to a fall in equity? While theoretically yes, practically the last 20 years of data shows otherwise

Please ‘re-tweet’ 🧵& help us educate more retail investors

#Investing

Lets start with basic, y does inflation ⬆️?
Most feel bcoz of higher demand & lower supply but that’s nt the only factor. Imagine there is a shortage of laptops wrt the demand, but there is no liquidity in the market (people don’t have monies) will the price of laptop ⬆️? No

So, Inflation takes place because the demand supply situation is accompanied by high liquidity, people have the monies to spend and hence the price goes up. Inflation does not take place only because of the demand supply gap (3/n)

Its RBI’s job to keep inflation under check. What role does RBI play? RBI is comfortable keeping Inflation between 2-6% currently. So if Inflation is increasing, how can RBI control it? Can RBI do anything to demand & supply? Nothing (4/n)

So the only tool available with RBI to control inflation is controlling liquidity. If RBI is able to reduce liquidity in the market, less money will chase the goods and hence Inflation can be expected to stabilize. (5/n)

Fincademy
@FincademyIn

Everything You Need To Know about Emergency Funds

A Thread 🧵👇

1/ Let’s understand the meaning of Emergency Fund, it is a fund that will help you at the time of financial crisis or unplanned scenarios. It is also known as contingency funds.

An Emergency Fund is the first step towards financial freedom.

2/ For example, when the Covid-19 hits many people lose their jobs which results in loss of financial support and people find difficulties buying basic necessities for themselves. So, having emergency funds helps you to sustain the period.

3/ Now the question arises, how to build an Emergency Fund?

An emergency fund cannot be built overnight but it can be done gradually. Firstly, you need to analyse your monthly expenses and then, you need to set aside a particular amount every month.

4/ Say, you have decided to have an emergency fund of ₹3 lakhs. In this case, you can set aside ₹45000 or ₹50000 every month to accumulate the corpus you need. It is fine to even cut down on your investments to build this amount.

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$Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5

Samayapuram Mariamman Temple
#Trichy
#Tamilnadutemples 🚩

Samayapuram Mariamman Temple is located in Samayapuram of
Tiruchirappalli district. Mariyamman here is worshipped as Samayapurathal a form of Parashakti.
Amman vigraham here is made of sand and clay so

no abhishekam done to the main vigraham. Samayapuram Mariamman Temple is one of the famous Shakthi Sthal of Tamilnadu.

Story says that paramashiva created Kali, out of the poison that he drank during samudra mathanam. As Devi originated from the Kaalakoota/ halahala poison,

thus the name Kaali. Mariamman is believed to be a form of Kaali, and is also known as Mahamayi. It is also believed that Maharaja Dasharatha offered his prayers here.

Mariamman is Parashakti herself who blesses with prosperity and she is believed to cure all diseases.

Paramashiva, Mahavishnu and Brahma Deva are believed to have taken blessings of Mariamman here.

Om Shakti Para Shakti
🙏🕉🙏

SK
@sk_diary1

A #story from #Thiruvilayadal puranam- one of divine leelas of Bhagwan Shiva

#threadseries #madurai

Koodal Kaandam

Story 21 - it is about how stone elephant came to life and ate sugarcane - When Raja Abhisheka Pandyan met Ellam Valla Siddhar

கல்யானைக்கு கரும்பருத்திய படலம்

Raja Abhisheka Pandiyan went ahead to meet Ellam Valla Siddhar on the premises of the temple.On seeing the arrival of Raja, people surrounding Siddhar moved back. Abhisheka Pandiyan introduced himself to Siddhar &asked about his whereabouts.Also his purpose of visit to Madurai.

Raja asked why he performed magical acts, does he expect anything from him or people of Madurai.

Siddhar laughed & replied to Raja that he was from Kasi. He had heard a lot about Madurai in Kashi.Also told that this place is a Mukti Kshetram,so he had come to stay here.

Siddhar asked Raja if he has the capability &power to give anything that he asks for. Siddhar told King that he has power to do things even if he think of it.Siddhar asked King to ask whatever he wants & it would be provided, whatever these people had asked, they were granted.

Abhisheka Pandyan was shocked to receive such a reply from Siddhar,& he decided to test the power of this Siddhar. By that time, Raja saw a person in crowd having Sugarcane.

Raja took Sugarcane from that person.

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Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

Did you know?

When Saudi Arabia's King visited India in 1955, PM Nehru ordered all the Hindu Temples and Idols of Hindu Deities that came in Saudi King's way to be covered up.
Our temples are the architectural marvels in their own league.

Each of our temples tells the story of our rich history and cultural heritage. Was Nehru that ashamed of his own nation's heritage that he had to cover them up or there was some other reason? The answer would be best known to him only.

PM Nehru invited the then Saudi King Saud bin Abdul Aziz to India who accepted the invitation and planned a 17 day long official visit to India in 1955. Saudi King had brought a large delegation with him and he had to visit various Indian cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad, Agra,

Aligarh, Shimla, Mysore and Varanasi. However, when Saudi King reached Varanasi, Nehru ordered to cover all the temples and Idols with curtains that came in the way of the Royal Convoy. During his stay in Varanasi, Govt buildings were painted with the words "Kalma Tayyiba".

'Kalma Tayyiba' means 'There is not God but only Allah and Mohammed is his messenger'. In addition to it, Pooja and Aartis were also stopped at temples. I can call it the appeasement politics of the highest order and Nehru was indeed the greatest appeaser of all times.

Greg Olear
@gregolear

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Let’s sort it out.

[THREAD]

1/ Two nights ago, Rupert Murdoch called on Mitch McConnell, after hours. Since then, two Fox News-related Twitter accounts have not tweeted.

2/ Trump fired Sessions on Wednesday, replacing him with human dildo/Putin collaborator Matt Whitaker. Sessions had asked to stay until Friday and was told to leave immediately. So there was clearly some urgency to install the dildo...er, puppet.

3/ The Democrats won the SHIT out of the Midterms. Come January, the House check on Trump will leave him so hobbled, he’ll be like the dude from Misery.

4/ Trump went to Paris, ostensibly for an Armistice Day centennial event. He skipped the event, and much of the dinner tonight, because of “weather,” which everyone seems to agree is a bullshit excuse.

Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson

(MAJOR NOTE) The reason Manafort took over Trump's campaign in just 3 weeks despite being hired as a mere delegate counter is that ROGER STONE initiated a whisper campaign against Corey Lewandowski. That campaign started...days after Manafort returned from meeting with WikiLeaks.

2/ Stone and Manafort are longtime business partners; we'd expect Manafort to tell Stone what Assange told him, and for him to expect Stone to then pressure the campaign not only to hire him but quickly elevate him.

And who was Stone in touch with at the campaign? Trump himself.

3/ I bet you Manafort's late March emails are very interesting and that some of them are to/from his longtime business associate Roger Stone. And I bet Roger Stone's late March phone calls are very interesting and that some of them are to/from his longtime friend Donald Trump.

4/ At the end of March 2016, Trump suddenly convenes a NatSec meeting. At that meeting he directs his NatSec team to change the RNC platform in July to benefit Putin. Who later takes credit for that change?

Paul Manafort's business associate, Kremlin agent Konstantin Kilimnick.

5/ Why did Donald Trump suddenly convene a NatSec meeting 3 days after he finally hired Manafort? Why did he issue a pro-Kremlin directive at that meeting that Manafort's camp would later take credit for? What did Manafort tell Trump in the days leading up to that NatSec meeting?