BC FINANCE
Saved by @curiousat3am

The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)

 Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move
At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest
The cycle repeats
We retail day-traders here neither rest nor train.

Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode

Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love
But what about training ?
Paper trading or trading on a simulator is never good training as it never gives you the same psychological issue while actual trading. Deep down you know this is fake, you are not making or losing actual money
As you are never making or losing money, you will not be able to be in the same psychological state / pressure which comes in actual trading. Your decisions while paper trading or simulated trading will be vastly superior or actual trading
The solution:
Trade 1 lot ( I am speaking about intraday options trading, cash traders can do this with a simple share of any stock) following your system/process for one month. This sounds easy, right?
Try implementing this, you will understand the massive psychological discipline and strength it requires. Majority fail to do this over a month and go back trading their normal volumes and thus face the same issues all over again
If you are in a trading slump for long and aim to claw back, give yourself 3 months.
First month = 1 lot
2nd month = 2 lots
3rd month = 4 lots
4th month = follow money mgmt/position sizing with a small bet per trade
I have used this "one lot" rule twice in my trading career to resolve my psychological issues while trading. In my time on twitter, have advised this method to probably hundreds and thousands of traders over the past few years.
So far, very few traders ( around 5 or 6) have followed this method diligently as I have outlined and come back to me with the results. Not surprisingly, all of them were profitable to various degrees
There is no short-cut solution is you are facing the same problem. No guru, no webinar/seminar/handholding/setup/system will be able to solve this issue.
As one of my students rightly said " when we go to a gym, the trainer can show us all the moves. But it's us who have to appear at the gym everyday and do the exercises if we have to improve our body"

Same with trading. Best of luck ! 🙏
Anthony Saliba, the only options trader to be interviewed in the first Market Wizards book was the original one lot trader. Indian fintwit has nicknamed me also as one lot, what a great title ! Thanks

https://t.co/oqCwSz8kfW

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Subhadip Nandy
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Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years


This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
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@SubhadipNandy
This friend had trouble making money in options though he was directionally right. Let us see how a basic understanding of greeks would have helped him, This thread will be about two attributes of option pricing, extrinsic value and theta


An option has two parts, intrinsic and extrinsic value. Think of a pack of Lay's potato chips. When you buy and open the pack, what you find is some chips and a lot of air. Intrinsic value is the chips, extrinsic value is air


https://t.co/8ZPv4ZnCiL


https://t.co/icWmqSLENW


https://t.co/vHA6azEmbQ
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Nifty fut : rising Lows and Highs, showing a megaphone or broadening formation on 15 min charts. Though a bearish pattern, here it seems has broken out. 11k CEs on monthlies seems badly trapped. As long as the CE is > 140, will maintain a strong bullish stance


EOD charts. Rising after strong accumulation and volumes. COI going up with rise in price. Can have a fast upmove anytime now till 11300. View negated below 10900


BNF 15 min charts : showing FLAG formation. Breakout above 22400, trade negated below 22200. Targets given in chart. Also higher highs and higher lows


BNF also strong accumulation yesterday. This model is also showing continuous accumulation since 16th. Almost same levels given in earlier tweet


Now there are broad positional views, or the context. Trades now will be based on realtime data , option analysis etc. But these analysis suggests keeping a bullish bias on the indices while trading now unless this data changes drastically
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Subhadip Nandy
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@SubhadipNandy16
When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
The BNF OI puzzle, what I think happened. This is post mortem analysis 😀

COi was going up like crazy since early March, positions were being created in far month ( go thru my previous tweets)


OI = net shorts = net longs. So informed traders were taking a huge position expecting a parabolic move ( we did not know whether up or down). As of now, my guess is that the whole position was a long position. Someone had the info of the rate cut

You can see that the positions were cut hugely on 1st April. What happened on 1st April ?

This happened 👇👇


If the rollback did not happen ( due to whatever reason), BNF would have gapped up by 1000-1500 points and the shorts would have been killed, and longs would have been laughing all the way to the bank. See the cut on 1st April


But since the rollback did happen, what we now had were trapped longs. that's why we are seeing any upmove getting sold as longs get rid of their positions. COI now is down to normal levels as you can see
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“Coffee? What does that have to do with payments?” I’m glad you asked.

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Why are states in Nigeria not paid their share of the oil and gas earnings in the currency it was earned in, i.e., the United States Dollars (USD)?

Crude oil in Nigeria is owned by the Federation — the Federal, State, & Local Govt. Shared as follows: 13% is deducted & paid to the oil and gas producing States; next, the Federal Government (FGN) gets 52.68%; the States get 26.72%, & the Local Governments get 20.60%.

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He runs Fundsmith which has a fund size of £27.9bn.

Despite the size, Fundsmith did a CAGR of 18.4%.

In his book Investing for Growth, he explains his investing philosophy.

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1. Fundsmith's winning formula

Find companies that focus on delivering value.

Not those who are looking to pacify Wall Street with short-term results.


2. Avoiding "cheap" companies?

Low multiples are not a reason to buy a company.

A ship will continue to sink if it has a hole in it.

"A stock may have a low valuation but an even lower intrinsic value. Buying such a stock is not a recipe for investment success."


3. Getting quality right

For long-term investors, getting the quality of the business is more important than the valuation.

“An investor could have paid 281 times earnings for L’Oréal, 156 times for Colgate, and 147 times for Brown-Forman and still beat the market.”


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Newbie traders after learning F&O, look for paper trading platforms to practise. It's like the itch to swim after you learn swimming but end up in a baby pool. Experience of an adult pool vs a baby pool is different, likewise with the real markets & paper trading 🧵 (1/11)

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When I talk about trading, I’m not just talking about experiencing the P&L rush. IMHO, experiencing the P&L and how it can vary in real-time is the last thing. There are multiple other things that you need to get comfortable with before diving into full-fledged trading 🏊‍♂️(3/11)

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