https://t.co/JIO9Ou2NtQ
A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time
The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data
https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc
They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.
https://t.co/JIO9Ou2NtQ
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets
Now the problem is, what has worked on the past set is on the past set. There is no guarantee that it will work in the future. As markets change, what do we do ?
A few lines of code on python can do this ( choosing some X period of backdata, identifying the best fit and applying them the next day).
Hence I started posting on twitter
More from Subhadip Nandy
Ok here is the explanation. Grab a cup of coffee and read on. If you have not read/noticed this, you will see intraday options movement in a new light.
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
In a high IV environment or when the market is very volatile
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) January 21, 2022
" OTM options will behave like ATM options", one will get almost the same delta movement
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years
This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
What do you think/use as the most robust leading indicator if following technical analysis ? Please answer with reason , I will provide my answer after 2 hours
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) August 12, 2019
( At Delhi airport , bored as hell )
This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
More from Finance
I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
1/
— 10-K Diver (@10kdiver) July 25, 2020
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll help you work out how much money you need to retire.
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
1/ Thoughts on Research Process
— Mostly Borrowed Ideas (@borrowed_ideas) September 27, 2021
I was invited to present my research process at a college in the US. I am sharing all ten slides here. pic.twitter.com/z0tjZcogfH
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
\U0001f9d0How to Read 10Ks Like a Hedge Fund\U0001f9d0
— Ming Zhao (@FabiusMercurius) May 7, 2021
\u201cFundamentals don\u2019t matter anymore!\u201d I\u2019ve heard this a lot lately on Fintwit.\U0001f644
But, for those who\u2019ve diversify beyond $GME and $DOGE, here\u2019s a primer on what metrics fundamental buy-side PMs look at and why:
(real examples outlined)
\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/tLlNRvpnDK
You May Also Like
Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"
The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.
1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!
2) "Repressed memory" syndrome
3) Facilitated Communication [FC]
All 3 led to massive abuse.
"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.
Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.
FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
For three years I have wanted to write an article on moral panics. I have collected anecdotes and similarities between today\u2019s moral panic and those of the past - particularly the Satanic Panic of the 80s.
— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) September 29, 2018
This is my finished product: https://t.co/otcM1uuUDk
The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.
1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!
2) "Repressed memory" syndrome
3) Facilitated Communication [FC]
All 3 led to massive abuse.
"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.
Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.
FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
