A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of time.

https://t.co/JIO9Ou2NtQ
Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input
I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets
This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.
These periods are determined by backtesting over a set of data and finding the best fit for that market.
Now the problem is, what has worked on the past set is on the past set. There is no guarantee that it will work in the future. As markets change, what do we do ?
We continuously change the timeframe based on the best fit on some backdata ? ( continuous optimization)

A few lines of code on python can do this ( choosing some X period of backdata, identifying the best fit and applying them the next day).
We can term it as ML, AI, neural net whatever, but the fact remains it's glorified curve fitting. Chances of such approach working are at best, random.
I walked on a completely different path after going through everything. Rather than backtesting, I decided to forward test. Small trades with my own money and posting the levels on twitter. If the levels did not work, the feedback on twitter would obviously be negative.
If the levels were of importance, then also twitter would provide me the required feedback from hundreds of traders.
Hence I started posting on twitter
Hence, you see the Ranges and Balance everyday. There is another element in this study which I so far have not posted, a BIAS. A BIAS is simply whether you should be bullish or bearish for the day. Will start posting that too from next week after I make the requisite changes
I have always believed in sharing codes or logic. But my experiences on social media have made me realise, that these codes gets repackaged/pirated and sold/used. The same people then come after me including the self- proclaimed quants.
So no free lunch ( free open code), if someone is that smart let him/her work in identifying how I am doing this. I will not utter a single word on the construction as some very smart people on my twitter timeline can then work in deciphering the code / approach.
From next week, will be posting the the levels with BIAS.
Will also write a detailed article/manual on how to use the levels in intraday trading .

Thank you for reading through my rant :)

More from Subhadip Nandy

This question might have rose in your mind too, that why VIX was lower than yesterday despite the huge selloff today.
This is what I think happens . A thread.


What is VIX ?
https://t.co/VOkAwGRsHL


What is IV ( implied volatility ) ?

Now my explanations. IV is simply demand and supply. IV is back calculated from option prices and not given by the BSM model. When demand for options ( by buyers) are high, IVs will be high. When supply of options ( by sellers) are high, IV will be low.

Now look at this chart. Nifty fut and VIX are plotted together ( red line is the VIX). Yesterday's massive breakdown forced traders to hedge their positions by buying puts ( could be cash holdings, could be future longs, could be sold puts). This excess demand spiked up IVs /VIX

More from Finance

Having made over 1000 boxes for vulnerable families in Cambridge via @RedHenCambridge (thanks to our customers 🙏🏽) My thoughts on the £30 box thing. Lots of factors at play here. 1/

If the pics in this @BootstrapCook thread are true and correct then the Govt/taxpayers & families in need are getting absolutely SHAFTED 👇🏽 2/


There are some mitigating circumstances. A £30 box won’t ever contain £30 (retail) worth of food - people aren’t factoring in
-the cost of the box
-paying someone to fill it
-rent & rates
-& most expensive the *transport/distribution*

3/

If you’re doing the above at scale. Delivering *across the UK* it’s not cheap BUT IMHO there should be at LEAST £20 worth of groceries in a £30 box. To get more value they need more fresh produce. Just carrots & apples is terrible. 4/

I’m gonna put my rep on the line here & say something about these big national catering companies whose names I’ve seen mentioned. They are an ASSHOLE to deal with & completely shaft small businesses like mine with their terms which is why I won’t deal with them. 5/
** MEGA THREAD ON Cryptocurrencies/Blockchain**

I wanted to know the best resources to learn about cryptocurrencies and blockchain for someone with zero knowledge. I asked Twitter, and Twitter answered.

This thread is a compilation of the best resources I was recommended. 👇👇

Let's start with ** BOOKS **

The first thing you should do before you pick up any book:

Learn about Bitcoin & Ethereum by reading the respective whitepapers.

- [Bitcoin white paper](https://t.co/cErOaFn6QL) by Satoshi Nakamoto

- [Ethereum White paper] (
https://t.co/0g5kYCGJGq) by Vitalik Buterin

Even if you are not tech savvy, you can get a good grasp about how blockchain functions from these papers.

1) *The Basics of Bitcoins and Blockchains: An Introduction to Cryptocurrencies and the Technology that Powers Them* by Antony Lewis

This book covers topics such as the history of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin blockchain, and Bitcoin buying, selling, and mining.

It also answers how payments are made and how transactions are kept secure.

Other cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency pricing are examined, answering how one puts a value on cryptocurrencies and digital tokens.

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