BC FINANCE
Saved by @curiousat3am

A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

 Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of time.

https://t.co/JIO9Ou2NtQ
Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input
I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets
This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.
These periods are determined by backtesting over a set of data and finding the best fit for that market.
Now the problem is, what has worked on the past set is on the past set. There is no guarantee that it will work in the future. As markets change, what do we do ?
We continuously change the timeframe based on the best fit on some backdata ? ( continuous optimization)

A few lines of code on python can do this ( choosing some X period of backdata, identifying the best fit and applying them the next day).
We can term it as ML, AI, neural net whatever, but the fact remains it's glorified curve fitting. Chances of such approach working are at best, random.
I walked on a completely different path after going through everything. Rather than backtesting, I decided to forward test. Small trades with my own money and posting the levels on twitter. If the levels did not work, the feedback on twitter would obviously be negative.
If the levels were of importance, then also twitter would provide me the required feedback from hundreds of traders.
Hence I started posting on twitter
Hence, you see the Ranges and Balance everyday. There is another element in this study which I so far have not posted, a BIAS. A BIAS is simply whether you should be bullish or bearish for the day. Will start posting that too from next week after I make the requisite changes
I have always believed in sharing codes or logic. But my experiences on social media have made me realise, that these codes gets repackaged/pirated and sold/used. The same people then come after me including the self- proclaimed quants.
So no free lunch ( free open code), if someone is that smart let him/her work in identifying how I am doing this. I will not utter a single word on the construction as some very smart people on my twitter timeline can then work in deciphering the code / approach.
From next week, will be posting the the levels with BIAS.
Will also write a detailed article/manual on how to use the levels in intraday trading .

Thank you for reading through my rant :)

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Views, buy/sell signals, entry systems are over rated.

Execution and trade management skills are under-rated.

A thread

You buy 4 lots of TataConsmr 710 CE at 24, SL 18
( Risk = R = 6 points)

TataCon 710CE goes upto 30. What do you do ?

( this is where the 4 lots minimum comes into play)

1. You sqoff 2 lots. rest 2 you put SL at 24

2. You sqoff 2 lots, you put 1 lot SL at 24, another lot at 18
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In all the cases, you have taken some profit off the table ensuring you do not lose money on this trade while keeping yourself open for more profits in case it goes up more.
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Options and their price action analysis.
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Regarding the MFI divergence indicator those who are asking :
1. Link not working on TV
2. Not showing on spot Nifty/BankNifty
3. Code showing errors
All your answers are there in the original thread. Kindly do not expect spoon feeding .
SOLVE YOUR PROBLEMS ON YOUR OWN
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Trend Ratio suggests major long positions has been built into Nifty and BNF over the weekend. If tomorrow we trade above the upper levels, stay bullish. Break of the Balance levels will mean these longs are trapped and can lead to fast downsides


Will not be in markets tomorrow due to some personal work, hence posted this today.

Nifty short covering on Friday given the strong move in Nifty fut is obvious. But what's interesting is the huge short covering on BNF with only 0.5% upmove in price. Morning should be bullish, then watch out how the OI behaves


Lastly, all the calculations for Upper/Lower/Balance/Trend Ratio are my own development and I won't share the formula or process. So request stop asking me about those. Thanks.

Working on two quantitative logic to analyze intraday trend and volatility. Nifty fut and BN fut charts attached.
Intraday Trend :: Blue = Uptrend , Red = Downtrend , Yellow = No Trend

Intraday Volatility :: Red = Volatile , Yellow = Normal , Gray =Quiet
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Temple is also called Puthukode Bhaghavathy Kshetram
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108 Durga temples
Navarathri festival is celebrated in a grant manner here. Annadanam is done daily on these days. The Idichu pizhinja payasam/ Chathachatayam is the main nivedyam in Annapoorneswari temple during Navarathri.
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