Time for a Scorecard📊and thesis📑updates for purchases done in Feb/Mar 2020. Last review done in late April. How far things have come since then.😯

Not taking any drastic actions, other than few sells in fully valued, slower growth Co.'s.

Excellent Section on CFI site for learning more about Business Valuation. 👏

Few of my fav articles in the thread

✔️Cash Flow Drivers
Revenues
Gross Margins
EBIT(DA) Margins
Working Capital
Capital Expenditures
Capital

✔️Valuation

✔️DCF Analysis Pros &

✔️Enterprise Value

One of the best Investing blogs I recently came across. h/t @StableBread 👏

Five of my fav articles⬇️

@dmuthuk @saxena_puru @Gautam__Baid

1⃣On Moats
Network Effect
Intangible Assets
Switching Cost
Economies of Scale
Low Cost Provider
Toll
Cultural

2⃣Crucial Investment Principles You Need to Have
Capital Appreciation
Buy Low, Hold, Sell High
Recognize/Avoid Spec Bubbles
Ignore Noise
Stock Market=Pendulum
Diversify Your investments. Don't overdo it.
DCA
Understand Share Price Value
LT Tax

3⃣How to Read and Analyze Any 10-K Annual Report

Business Summary
Risk Factors
Selected Financial Data
Management's Discussion and Analysis
Financial Statements and Supplementary Data
Notes to Consolidated Financial

4⃣The Beginner's Guide to Dividend Investing

Dividend Yield
Dividend Growth Rate
Dividend Payout Ratio
Ability to Pay Back Debt
Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Return on Equity
Credit

5⃣How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of a Company Like Warren Buffett

Owners Earnings
Growth Rate
Discount Rate
Calculate Intrinsic Value
Scenario Analysis
Margin of

"4 Simple Rules To Protect Your Portfolio From Yourself" h/t @EconomyApp 👏👏

Excellent article for the current environment (with big drawdowns in many high growth including some quality Co.'s)

My fav parts from the article in the thread below.

"The real threat to your portfolio is not volatility. It's your ability to cope with it. As a result, your portfolio doesn't need to be protected from volatility. It needs to be protected from yourself." 👏

"Volatility refers to how dramatically the price of an investment may change. On the other hand, risk refers to the probability that an investment will underperform the market or result in a permanent loss of capital."

"In short, a stock that sees very large swings in its price over time may be a less risky investment than one that barely moves. The true risk over a long timeframe depends on the underlying business more than the sheer volatility of its share price."

"How much volatility can I tolerate?"

That's the key question that we all need to answer, but it might be the wrong way to tackle the question of temperament.

My biggest mistakes in the last decade & what I learned.

There are 2 types of Investors in the Market. Those who make mistakes & admit them openly while learning, and those who give the illusion that they never make mistakes. I want to be firmly in the former camp.

Here we go⬇️

Putting those mistakes/examples/lessons down again in the thread below for easy reading.

Note that the lessons learned are very subjective. They are not recommendations. It depends on each person's Portfolio goals & strategies.

OK let's go. ⬇️⬇️

1⃣ Mistake : Actions not aligning to goals & competencies.

Ex : Mainly during 2010-14 - Dabbling in cheap (low quality) stocks & Options (LEAPS, but w/o clearly identified catalysts)

Lesson : Make sure your process and actions are leveraging your interests/strengths and aligned to your Portfolio goals. For me, that was leveraging my patience and interest in quality Cos. Monitor & improve the process over time.

2⃣ Mistake :Confusing between Quality/Durability and Temporary Business momentum or ST stock momentum.

Ex : Buying GILD/SAM in 2016, PTON/FVRR etc in early 2021.

Alright. I've got that out of my system. Happy Thanksgiving and back to work here with a Early Black Friday pallet cleansing mega thread with a Cornucopia of thoughts on 2021. First, precious metals aren't dead. Yes, Bitcoin is stealing gold's thunder as a... /1

...currency alternative but it's not going away as a dollar hedge though I see Bitcoin likely to outperform gold in 2021. That said, gold could be up over 50% by the end of next year as Yellen and Powell (Jack and Jill) are climbing the stimulus hills. Meanwhile.. /2

...silver really should kill it next year. Solar is heating up, not just with Biden's win, but globally, & with pent up demand unleashed as lockdowns either relax or get tossed aside via polite revolts. Industry is going to boom and with globalists back in business so are... /3

...green energy and rare earth metals. Yeah, looking at you $MP on rare earths and - dare I say it - $AG and miners might have their year come summer of 2021. Specs are going to sniff that out in January so look for December tea leaves on the metals. No shame in buying $SLV... /4

....but I really like playing options for it. Speaking of lockdowns, no I promised to behave, I think the by-product of lockdowns ending is that the torturous path of a decade plus of "deflation" (in name only really) dies in a supernova heat death of feels good man spending. /5

Remember, socialism leads to Communism. So, how do you create a
Socialistic State?
There are 8 levels of control; read the following recipe:
1) Healthcare - Control healthcare and you control the people.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples in Australia, suffer grossly disproportionate rates of disadvantage against all measures of socio-economic status.
1-

State, territory & federal governments have introduced programs, & continue to seek to identify further methods, for redressing this disadvantage.
2-

A plethora of government programs have proven to be inadequate when considered against the requirement to raise Indigenous People to a position of equality in Australian society.
3-

The final report card for the 2008-2020 Closing-The-Gap-Program found the program only partially met 2 of the 7 outcome. 12 years on Aboriginal People still have a life expectancy a full decade less than white

Sadly there is little understanding within Australian society of the requirement to and legitimacy of adopting special measures.
5-

Wait … so … how much worse could the pandemic response and unprecedented death rate get?

How much farther shall our economy crater?

I wonder what it will feel like to get better.

I wonder what it will be like for things to get better after being arguably as bad as they have ever been.

Wait … sooo … were things this bad in 2016?

Wait … things were good? After eight years under a democratic administration?

Huh.

I wonder how all those falsehoods will play after things start to get better.

I wonder how many full fledged COVID deniers will finally encounter this deadly pandemic.

I wonder if red states will continue to suffer needlessly under Trumpian COVID policies.

I wonder what the recovering blue states will look like from those red states.

I wonder how much aid these red states will require from said blue states.

And I wonder what it will feel like to those red state constituents when the aid forced upon them makes things a bit better?

** MMT is the new supply-side economics
Forty years ago, some economists started from an uncontroversial (but important) result: a lower tax rate raises the tax base, so revenues won't fall as much. But then they ran with it, predicting tax rate cuts could raise revenues.

1/13

The 80s supply-siders went to the limit and came up with a motto: lower taxes will lower deficits as a norm, not an exception. Many economists shouted this was backwards. It was an implausible limit case. Textbooks called them "charlatans and cranks" or "silly".
2/13

In 80s debates, supply-siders would often fall back to "you don't understand me", repeating "Laffer curve!" endlessly, or stating vacuous accounting identities about how the government collect taxes. Their extreme prediction was repeatedly proven wrong by theory and data.
3/13

But they had popular hero figures (Laffer, Moore), and an eager political audience that would use any argument to cut taxes. Eventually, they inspired new good research, and helped in swinging the pendulum of policy debates to include some valid supply considerations.
4/13

Yet, supply-side economic ideas also contributed to a massive rise in US public debt in the last 40 years. Right-wing governments became as prone to have large public deficits as left-wing governments, in the pursuit of cuts in taxes.
5/13