Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".
cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid
✔️Mania and risk
"The combination of feedback loops and irrational exuberance, where newfound expectations and enthusiasm, encourages investors to bid up and rationalize extraordinary growth in asset prices.
An understanding of where attitudes to risk sits within the current investor psychology cycle can be a useful knowledge advantage.
Marks believes that the biggest source of investment risk is when investors believe that there are no risks at all.
It is helpful to consider the extent to which optimism or pessimism is incorporated into current asset prices. Skepticism is needed when mass optimism or pessimism is in excess. Contrarianism at the right moments is an important ingredient for successful investing
More from Ram Bhupatiraju
More from Investing
How to screen for stocks in the Microcap/Smallcap space?
Look for the following:
1. PE < 15
2. Low debt
3. Low Float
4. No Analyst Coverage
5. High Promoter Holding
6. Recent Promoter Buying
7. High Operating Leverage
8. Conservative Management
9. Blockbuster Earnings Release
What more you should look at?
Read this post, the quote retweets to this and the
Look for the following:
1. PE < 15
2. Low debt
3. Low Float
4. No Analyst Coverage
5. High Promoter Holding
6. Recent Promoter Buying
7. High Operating Leverage
8. Conservative Management
9. Blockbuster Earnings Release
What more you should look at?
Read this post, the quote retweets to this and the
Things I look at before Investing:
— The Disciplined Investor (@Disciplined_Inv) August 27, 2021
Profitable \u2013 Free Cash Flow
Healthy \u2013 Interest Coverage
Quality \u2013 ROCE, ROA, Margins
Valuation \u2013 EV/EBITDA, FCF Yield
Governance \u2013 Dividend, Buybacks
Efficiency \u2013 Cash Conversion Cycle
Growth \u2013 Source of Funds for CAPEX
What do you look at?
Who are some of the Best and worst TTs out there...who are running their trains well....share your experience for others.
MF, PMS, AIF , advisory etc.
MF, PMS, AIF , advisory etc.
Every train(strategy) has limited seats for its passengers to enjoy the journey (performance) unless the TT (fund manager) decides to cash in as many tickets as he can and is apathetic towards reduction of the performance like our most popular mutual fund (U know which) !!\U0001f920 pic.twitter.com/febeE3YeeZ
— Alok Jain \u26a1 (@WeekendInvestng) June 12, 2021
All my Threads so far 🧵 👇🏼
The One with the Cash Flow Explained
The One with Free Cash Flow Explained
The One with Mutual Funds
The One on Laurus Labs
The One with the Cash Flow Explained
It's the weekend!
— Tar \u26a1 (@itsTarH) May 15, 2021
Grab a cup of coffee, in this thread I will explain
1. What a cash flow statement is?
2. What does it tell you about a business?
3. How to analyze one?
Examples included various Indian companies.
Let's dive right in. pic.twitter.com/c8tNP26Z8K
The One with Free Cash Flow Explained
Its the weekend!
— Tar \u26a1 (@itsTarH) May 22, 2021
Grab a cup of coffee, in this thread I will explain
1. What is Capex?\U0001f4b0
2. What is Free Cash Flow? \U0001f4b8
3. What does Cash Flow from Investing and Cash Flow from Financing tells us? \U0001f4a1
Examples includes some famous companies.
Lets dive right in. pic.twitter.com/HDJgUvE8f8
The One with Mutual Funds
Its the weekend!
— Tar \u26a1 (@itsTarH) May 29, 2021
Grab a cup of coffee, in this thread I will explain
1. How to select a Mutual Fund?
2. Common and costly mistakes people make while choosing a Mutual Fund
3. Some tools and tips to help you while selecting a fund
Lets dive right in. pic.twitter.com/teelsojtn9
The One on Laurus Labs
Laurus Labs : A Visual Story
— Tar \u26a1 (@itsTarH) May 30, 2021
I am a Data Science / Machine Learning developer by profession and data along with finance are my two areas of competence.
I realize how powerful combining both of them can be, so here is a visual analysis for Laurus Labs.
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1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
1/\u201cWhat would need to be true for you to\u2026.X\u201d
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) December 4, 2018
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody: https://t.co/Yo6jHbSit9
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?
The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
The story doesn\u2019t say you were told not to... it says you did so without approval and they tried to obfuscate what you found. Is that true?
— Sarah Frier (@sarahfrier) November 15, 2018
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
