Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

"6 Rules From 6 of the World's Top Investors" - Nice article with some good lessons for long-term investors.

1⃣ Let Winners Run
2⃣ Do the Research
3⃣ Have Conviction
4⃣ Patience Is Key
5⃣ Be Wary (of random advice)
6⃣ Look

1⃣ Let Winners Run : "Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades."

Although this is in reference to trading, it applies well to long-term investors also. Be patient and don't take quick/small gains when you're invested in wonderful companies..

..acquired at decent prices with lot of growth ahead.

At the same time, if the thesis is broken and you no longer believe in the Company which has been a loser in your Portfolio, don't stay invested with a hope of coming out even.

2⃣ Do the Research : "First, look at the quality of the company, then at the price. Looking at the quality of a company requires that you read financial statements, listen to conference calls, and vet management.

Then, only after you have confidence in the quality of the company, should the price be evaluated.

If a company isn't a quality company, don't buy it just because the price is low. Bargain-bin companies often produce bargain-bin results."

Phenomenal article/compilation on "The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make". h/t @manualofideas @JMihaljevic 👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

My fav pts in the thread below

Lot of great points on the importance of having a strategy, process, discipline, patience, self-reliance, awareness of risk, biases/emotions, learning from mistakes & more.

More ⬇️

Some more ⬇️

The last year has delivered great results to many Portfolios but Market conditions are always changing and it's important to ensure the Process and Portfolio are built to withstand whatever the Market throws at it in the short-term and sustain & succeed for the long-term.

Good Investing Checklist that goes thru Basics, Financials, Valuation & Behavioral factors. h/t Nicole Seah (not sure if it's @startingfromnix)

1.The Story
Do I understand the business?
Do I believe in the mission?
Moat?
How well do I trust Mgmt?
Do I know the key risks?
Do I have an idea why the company is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value?
What are the potential catalysts?
Is there room for future growth?

2. Financial Metrics
Financial statements and footnotes
Cyclical, countercyclical?
Inflation impact
Operating Leverage
Assessing Working Capital + Capex
Trends in Revenues, Margins, Cash flows...
Recent investments, acquisitions?

3.Valuation
Relative Valuation
DCF

Good pts on few of the behavioral biases to watch out for 👇

Insights from Philip Fisher. One of the best docs I came across for individual investors.

Phenomenal effort by @SiddharthVoraPL @PLIndiaOnline 👏👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

https://t.co/K19gWk9TFO

Philip Fisher's 15 points, simplified. ⬇️

His Investment strategy and Search strategy. ⬇️

Full scale scuttlebutt is not possible for individual investors (lack of time, resources, contacts), but with efficient search & communication online (tuning out the noise), there are still some ways to do good research.

Good sequence of steps to filter from a wider universe of companies to the few promising ones that meet the criteria. ⬇️

Excellent Checklist for Business, Management and Financial characteristics. ⬇️

Hilo con los mejores ETF indexados de RV

Con 4-5, podéis haceros vuestra propia cartera global por un coste muy inferior al que ofrecen por ahí

Tablas con ISIN, Acum/Dist, comisión y reparto por países

🟩la menor comisión en su categoría
🟪sin comisión de compra en degiro

👇

1- MSCI World o ACWI 🌍

Un ETF que contiene todo el mundo, para los más "vagos"

Contras: emergentes pesan nada muy poco

2 - USA 🇺🇸

Imprescindible en cualquier cartera. S&P500 y Nasdaq

Muchas opciones muy baratas. Acumulación o Distribución, para todos los gustos

Atención a los recién salidos L&G y Amundi Prime que baten a los ishares y vanguard en comisiones

3 - Europa 🇪🇺

Más variedad de índices

Stoxx 600: 600 acciones, large y mid. Usado por Vanguard

MSCI Europa: 400 acciones. Usado por el resto

Stoxx 50: las 50 más grandes

4 - Emergentes 🇨🇳🇮🇳🇧🇷🇷🇺🇹🇼

A recalcar:

China pesa entre un 30 y un 40% en todos

BABA y Tencent principales posiciones (10% aprox)

*Vanguard no incluye Corea del Sur como emergente, el resto si

Dollar Cost Averaging 101

Many of the brightest minds in the investing world share one common trait: they recommend dollar cost averaging as an investment strategy.

But what is dollar cost averaging and how does it work?

Here's Dollar Cost Averaging 101!

👇👇👇

1/ Dollar cost averaging, or "DCA" for short, is a simple investment strategy in which an investor splits the total amount to be invested in a given asset across regular periodic purchases.

The regular purchases occur regardless of price, volatility, or economic conditions.

2/ The goal is to remove the complexities of market timing from the process, allowing an investor to build their desired position without concern for external factors.

Its simplicity removes behavioral and psychological biases from the equation.

Let's look at an example.

3/ Imagine you want to build a $10,000 position in bitcoin. You have done your research and believe in the long-term story.

You aren't sure if it will go up or down in the near-term, so you decide to dollar-cost average.

Great decision! How will you do it?

4/ You split the $10,000 up into 20 pieces ($500 each). You could have done any number of pieces, but 20 felt right.

You decide on a weekly DCA, so every Monday, you buy $500 of $BTC, regardless of price. After 20 weeks, you have built your desired $10,000 cost basis position.

1) Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'm going to walk you through "The Kelly Criterion".

2) In 1956, John Kelly published a paper titled "A New Interpretation of Information Rate" in the Bell System Technical Journal.

3) In the paper, Kelly described a simple and elegant way for investors to strategically allocate capital in the face of uncertainty.

This is what is now known as the Kelly Criterion.

4) The approach is easiest to understand with an example.

I'll keep it as realistic as possible:

Imagine that you walk into an antique store one day. Due to the persistence of the salesman there, you buy an old lamp from him.

5) You take the lamp home. You rub it. Out comes a genie. Nothing unusual.

Saturday thoughts on market pull. What is it? How is it different from Total Addressable Market (TAM)? And what ideas tend to have strong market pull?

A thread >>

1) First: "Market pull" != market size.

IMO (and most VCs will disagree!!), market size (TAM) doesn't *really* matter. But market pull DEFINITELY does. For that reason, I've almost never asked a startup about TAM.

Why?

2) First, what is TAM?

TAM is a sizing of how big your market is. A good way to estimate this is - if you can get to all potential buyers and based on how much $$ they are worth to you, how much money can your company make if you took the whole mkt?

3) An example: Say we run an e-commerce site that sells hippo food. TAM in the world:

-1000 zoos have on average 3 hippos = 3000 hippos.
-Each hippo eats $100 worth of food each day
-365 days * $100 * 3000 hippos = $110m per year globally

4) But, we'll come back to this.

Why I don't like TAM - it doesn't take into acct a few things:

A) how hard it is to get customers
B) how much more you can upsell once you have customers
C) how fast the mkt is moving up or down