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You may be wondering why @bristoliver rather cryptically RT’d a chart that I posted last night. The answer is not just that he loves quadratic fits on log axes, but that this chart may –and I stress may– hint at a vaccine effect amongst the over 80s THREAD


WARNING: this is a long thread, and it’s a bit of a roller-coaster. We find some apparently strong patterns in the data, and then start to unpick them a bit. So if you start getting excited half way through you might find you’re less excited at the end. But we’ll see…

First we first have to go back a bit. @bristoliver posted a thread a few days ago explaining why, with a constant vaccination rate, a log plot of cases should show a quadratic form. In other words, it should fit an equation like: a + b.x + c.x^2

I meant to link in the model thread there - here it is


the quadratic coefficient – the ‘c’ in that equation – gives an estimate of the % of the population who are being newly protected by the vaccine each day. Please note ‘protected by the vaccine’, not ‘vaccinated’ – as we don't expect 100% protection after the first dose
'Key learnings'


A a layman, I seem to recall our Public Health doctors saying these things to anyone who would listen close on a year ago.

https://t.co/DxRl3Qa3IA


One for the book.

https://t.co/MHulHu9BHz
THREAD

1/ Yesterday's indictment of Douglass Mackey was deeply satisfying in that a co conspirator that was identified in the indictment ; Microchip. This Alt Right troll targeted me, & many others in 2017

cc
@thespybrief
@RVAwonk
@JamesFourM
@TheRickWilson
@DrDenaGrayson


2/ Microchip specifically targeted my account & others for mass reporting efforts by his followers (he offered $5000 per acct suspended by Twitter) and encouraged harassment & threats towards those accounts. Threats of violence were directed at me (it didn't intimidate me)


3/ Additionally in the Mackey indictment, Baked Alaska aka Tim Gionet, was also named . Gionet was recently arrested for his role in the assault on the Capitol building. Now, this indictment of Mackey would seem to be just the beginning, because these guys connect to everyone


4/ For starters Baked Alaska & Microchip connect to this guy, Charles "Chuck" Johnson. He's the redheaded guy , standing on the steps of the Ecuadorian Embassy in London with Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R) , about to meet Julian Assange. We'll get back to JAss later.........,


5/ Baked Alaska & Chuck C Johnson have also been linked to Roger Stone . Hey, there's Roger Stone at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London too. Presumably Roge got lost in London to end up at Assange's bolt hole...........,
Friendly reminder:
Please do not invest money you can't afford to lose.


https://t.co/ypc8ViK1Gq


This is personal for a lot of people. We've never seen anything like this.

These aren't just random comments on the internet, community is meaningful, this is a person standing up in a stadium of millions of people they consider allies/friends/confidants speaking their painful truth and getting a a roar of applause and cheers and support.


This is going to be in textbooks one day