If the connotation of risk is an intertwined concept and is difficult to quantify, how does a Risk Officer look at it?
Is there any way other than using copula models to determine systemic risk with long tails or a black swan event?
@CQFInstitute @GARP_Risk @SOActuaries

I guess we are worried about Market and Credit Risks or other interrelated financial risks which can create conjoint loss given events.

Any #Gaussian distribution model will enable you to model and predict potential Operational, Liquidity and Balance sheet AL - (Asset - liability) Mismatch, Market and Credit drove losses under normal market conditions.

But in the financial sector, the trend has been to emphasize more on #material and #quantifiable risks, which adhere to SPC #Statistical Process Control such as Credit and Market risks, at least in the context of financial instruments with a #linear pay -off.

Research has shown that even in the financial sector most of the #tail #risk event impacts are #Operational in nature=>
•75- 80% of the loss given events are classified as Operational #LGE - (LOSS GIVEN EVENTS),
•Only 15%- 20% of the LGEs are driven by Market or Credit or both

Tata Trusts launches 2nd edition of the "India Justice Report"

Justice Madan Lokur, former Supreme Court Judge to give a special address.

@tatatrusts

#IndiaJusticeReport2020: Srinath N, Tata Trusts renders opening remarks.

Chief Editor of the Report, Maya Daruwala gives an overview of the report.

Druwala says the aim of the report was to assess the capacity of each State to deliver Justice.

@tatatrusts

#IndiaJusticeReport2020: The launch event is also being streamed live on

#IndiaJusticeReport2020 -

Maja Daruwala: We found that in most areas - vacancies, number of undertrials, overburdening of courts etc. - they remained very much as they are.

Only 30% of prisoners were convicts, the study showed, Daruwala points out, among other findings.

Last year the report had been confined to broad suggestions, but this year specific suggestions have been made since there has been a pandemic, Daruwala says.

#IndiaJusticeReport2020

1/ Hey guys, remember that time Steve Bannon ran an army of game virtual currency miners in Asia, for sale to westerners at discount prices, arbitraging attention for profit?

That was

2/ “The company was founded by former child star Brock Pierce, and Bannon was an investor. Bannon managed to convince Goldman Sachs to plow $60 million into a company that sold imaginary goods in an imaginary world.”

In 2020, Brock Pierce ran for President. Guess who...

3/ was Pierce’s campaign manager?

Brittany Kaiser, the fake whistleblower who left Cambridge Analytica in late March 2018 — right *after* it blew

4/ Guess who was all excited about today’s $GME activity? Steve Bannon and Russia shill, Jack Posobiec. They called it a “populist uprising against Wall Street.” That’s cool... just leftists, Steve Bannon, and Russia shills cheerleading for the same stuff. It happens...

Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/

The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/

You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/

The same unfortunately typically applies to trade deals. If you are Nissan and threaten to leave the country without the right deal you have more clout than a small cheesemaker. As we see. But is it just the EU that is over-bureaucratic? Sadly not... 4/

One of the best UK business groups on trade policy @BritAmBusiness (and yes you can quote me @EmanueAdam) has a new report out on a UK-US trade deal and SMEs. It shows opportunities. But unfortunately problems unlikely to be solved. 5/

It’s thirty years since The KLF’s 3am Eternal hit Number One so I suppose it must also be about thirty years since 13-year-old me met The KLF at Top Of The Pops.

I’d decided they were my favourite band a couple of years earlier and at that point I hadn’t really grasped the fact that most of the music they were making in 1989/1990 was for people either at raves or coming down after raves.

To be frank I made a complete nuisance of myself. Often after school I’d phone their PRs Mick and Pam, or their radio plugger Scott, or their distributor James, and later on Cress and Sallie at their office in Brixton.

I must have been extremely annoying but they’d make time for a chat and sometimes send me photos and white labels and merch. Sometimes they even phoned me. I once came home from school to find my dad on the phone to Bill Drummond.

At one point someone mentioned in passing that on my 13th birthday the band had toyed with the idea of driving their famous but increasingly dilapidated car, Ford Timelord, to my house in East Grinstead and dumping it outside. (?)

THIS IS STRICTLY FOR THE SO-CALLED CHRISTIAN RELIGIOUS BIGOTS

"CHIEFS OF ARMY STAFF

We have had 9 Chiefs of Army Staff, (Victor, Alex, Agwai, Azazi, Luka, Dambazau, Ihejirika, Minima and Buratai) only Dambazau and Buratai are Muslims.

The both have spent 5 years of the close to 20 years which means Christians held that position for 15 years. Christians 75%, Muslims 25%

1.3 CHIEFS OF AIR STAFF.

We have had 8 Chiefs of Air Staff, (Isaac, Jonah, Dike, Petirin, Dikko, Alex, Amosu and Sadiq).

Only Sadiq and Dikko are Muslims and both have spent 5 years of the close to 20 years. Christians held that position for 15 years. Christians 75% Muslims 25%.

1.4 CHIEFS OF NAVAL STAFF.

We have had 8 Chiefs of Navy Staff (Ombu, Afolayan, Adeleke, I. Ibrahim, S. Ibrahim,

Ezeoba, Jibrin and Ibak). Only Jibrin who seved 2 years and one of the Ibrahims is a Muslims, both Ibrahim served 2 years each, so Muslims served 4 years. Christians 16 years, Muslims 4 years. Christians 75% Muslims 25%.

1.5 CHIEFS OF DEFENCE STAFF.

We have had 9 CDS (Ogohi, Ogomudia, Agwai, Azazi, Dike, Petinri, Ibrahim, Alex and Abayomi). Only Ogohi and Ibrahim are Muslims, not so sure of Petinri. Both Ogohi and Ibrahim spent 5 years. Meaning Christians have spent 15 years, and Muslims 5 years.

THE ONE WHO STAYED BEHIND

Dimitar Berbatov & Christiano Ronaldo played for Manchester United in the 2008/2009 football session.
That was the only season both players were on the books of Manchester United at the same time...

Berbatov said of Ronaldo; “I was lucky to play alongside Ronaldo for a season. He was 100% professional, on the training pitch & off it.
I don't remember him ever being late for training...

He was always preparing in the gym, after training he would stay & do extra work like working on his shooting, then he would go swimming & go to the gym again…”
The club had strict training sessions. The players had to fit into the training schedules to stay fit & competitive...

They all wanted to excel.
They stuck religiously to these training schedules.
Their lifestyles- their training, eating, drinking, sleeping- everything was under scrutiny.
They were professional athletes, their physical fitness was very key to their success...

So they aligned themselves to these rigid training schedules.
when the training sessions were over, the players would leave for home.
BUT RONALDO WOULD STAY BEHIND!
He would train more.
He would practice more.
He would go swimming to tone his muscles more...

4/x keepers are calling in the Fed(s) (Fed/sec) for some help getting the animals back under control, so they can feed Gary & get the zoo back under control. As they are likely giving guidance to the brokers to get this under control, as every major retail broker seems to be

5/x restricting trading in the short squeeze names to closing only. The Wheel of Fortune has a taping on Fri & w/out Gary at his best the show will be overrun by the animals. If they can make it to the EOM & keep Gary above the 20 day, calm him down & start feeding him,vanna will

6/x be back & should be able to nurse him back to his usual self & save the show. But there’s a lot of time between now & then & holding the animals @ bay until then seems like a colossal task. Given the pop in Ivols & backwardation of the curve, when vanna gets back she will be

7/x refreshed & in preelection form. The only question is will the animals be so out of control so as to not even be managed by Vanna in her best shape.. This decline fits into a narrative that I’ve had brewing for 4 months, that after a monster run since Sep this is a healthy &

8/x reasonable time to expect the animals to be tired of being caged up & want to blow off some steam. All the biggest wall of worry narratives have been solved 1 by 1. Sentiment & bullish positioning was at all time highs. Hedging activity was low. Breadth was deteriorating. W/

This is the 19th instalment of #deanehistory.

Die Hard is the best Christmas film. This truism is well known.

But the phrase “Die Hard” actually has a much longer history.

In the early 1800s, Spain & Portugal fought the Peninsular War against the invading / occupying French. As usual, in any given scrap in the last millennia or so, the British were on board, against the French.

At the Battle of Albuera, quite near the Spanish/Portuguese border, in 1811, a British/ES/PT force fought Napoleon’s Armée du Midi (included some Poles from the Duchy of Warsaw). In sum: heavy losses on both sides, result a score draw. Such conclusions belie the human stories.

Major-General Houghton was a British national hero. Two thirds of his brigade died in the line at Albuera, including Houghton himself. The French were able to enfilade (fire along their longest axis) with a devastating hail of grapeshot & canister (like huge shotguns).

Colonel William Inglis, one of the many Scots to have flourished during Empire, commanded the 57th Regiment of Foot, part of Houghton’s Brigade. He’d joined it as an Ensign & served with it since the American Revolutionary War in 1781.

The interview with CNBC of @chamath is a much watch because there is so much insight hidden underneath.

There are many things that caught my attention. The one thing was the abstraction that hedge fund strategies are all 'momentum' plays. What it seems to imply is that the marshaling of resources at an opportune time drives the future behavior of a stock.

From basic physics, we know that momentum is mass times velocity. So any 'momentum' tactic employs the variation of mass, velocity or both. Wrt stocks, mass is money and velocity is speed of trade.

We cannot argue that there are benefits of scale associated with having more money. Also, high-frequency trading has shown the value of high-speed trading. So in an abstract sense, market manipulation can involve a kind of momentum play.

The objective of stock trading is to buy a financial instrument at a low price and sell it at a higher price. The purpose of a momentum play is to front-run the decision process of other traders such that one acquires the assets before a decision is made.

OK, I guess I have a thing to say about the stock market. I have done kind of what these Reddit folks are doing with it, in that I have invested in the stock market when I was not at all rich, using parts of my paycheck that it probably wasn't wise to risk. I don't now. (thread)

But, like, it worked out okay for me. I even shorted some stuff. I didn't coordinate with anyone or whatever, but I don't think on the individual level the stock market is *inherently* malicious. If you're privileged, you're going to be exposed to it (through 401ks, etc.)

And I don't think it's wrong for people to try to make money off of it outside of the 401k/retirement context that's socially normal, *especially* if they're desperate like I was. There *are* strategies that you can use that, while risky, aren't exactly like gambling

Like, gambling is risky in a different way. You are always working with a fairly consistent set of probabilities in gambling, and they're never in your favor (outside of grey area gambling like between friends, where you could hypothetically actually still card count)

Anyway, like, on shorts: I don't think they're evil. I think they're dangerous. For an individual, a short always carries a small risk of individual bankruptcy. There's USUALLY not even a huge upside to them; they're not mystical or magical, they're basically reverse "longs"

After 4 years, tomorrow is my last day at @sharenowTech - here are the learnings of that time that stay with me for years to come.

Thread 👇

Don’t just complain about the situation, do something about it. I’m much happier when I feel I’m in control.
When something sucks, I ask what I can do to fix it. Not blame people.

Climb the latter if you want bigger organizational impact. Don’t climb for money. Especially going into management is not a step up but to the side. Make sure to know why, because losing a good IC for a bad manager is the worst for everyone.

Find talented people in your org that want to trigger change like you do. Then go for one problem at a time. You can’t fix everything.

To climb the ladder, learn your bosses goals, and her bosses goals (personal and business). Learn negotiation, speaking, presenting. Be visible. Make it easy for others to argue why you should be promoted.

🛫 As Boris Johnson sets off on his jaunt to Scotland, he'd hope people forget his catalogue of broken promises.

🔎 We thought we'd remind him.

👀 Their latest attack on workers' rights is only the most recent example of why you can't trust the

There's hardly enough space in an article to contain what Boris Johnson thinks of Scotland, devolution, Scottish spending, and the NHS... so here's a thread 👇

1⃣ Just a few months ago, Boris Johnson said devolution is "a disaster".

2⃣ While Boris Johnson seemingly liked devolution as Mayor of London, he told Tory MPs he did not "currently see a case" for devolving more powers from Westminster to Scotland and other nations.

3⃣ Boris Johnson's Leader of the Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg, recently said that devolution amounted to "vandalism" and must be

4⃣ In 2007, nearly a decade after the Scottish Parliament was re-convened - Boris Johnson's current Secretary of Scotland, Alister Jack, indicated he was opposed to devolution and the Scottish Parliament.

A surge of retail stock trading over the last year lit the fuse that sent shares of GameStop rocketing higher without a clear business reason, market watchers say, squeezing hedge funds that had bet against the retailer and other companies that were out of favor on Wall Street

What is going on? Here are some answers 👇

More individuals have invested in stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic, and experts cite a number of reasons, including lockdowns boosted savings, stimulus putting cash into people’s pockets and extremely low interest rates

Also, a proliferation of trading apps allowed anyone with a smartphone to buy or sell stocks for free. Retail investors’ participation in U.S. equity order flows increased to nearly 20% in 2020 from 15% in 2019, data from Swiss bank UBS showed

What has been the impact of this surge in retail trading?

Big U.S. technology companies were among the beneficiaries last year. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google saw record inflows as their businesses benefited from lockdowns and their stocks soared

💵 With unprecedented stimulus and easy money policies from central banks, investors then shifted to smaller stocks, especially ones that got beaten down during the pandemic

The One Spirit of God is the very definition of good (order, righteousness, fullness of completion). During creation, God called things as 'good' as the sequence of creation occured. God centered things always follow proper sequencing.

A Blessed2Teach (B2T) team drafted & filed this Court of Heaven document as accepted following several weeks of preparation to draft and implement it's proper order. The B2T team filed this document sometime in mid-to late- afternoon of Dec 18th.

The B2T team recreated the original filing of this Court of Heaven as notice (legal term) and recorded & shown here in early January before electoral college votes were certified.

At the time when the B2T team was filing this Court of Heaven document, a servant of God, Amanda Grace, had been given a Word from God near midday of the 18th. The word given her she later published that day after tending to her husband in the hospital.

Because prophecy precedes action/activity, the sequence & filing of the Court of Heaven document is confirmed as accepted. On December 19th, servant Amanda Grace was given another word from God.