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Thread on 'no stop loss', 'adjustments' and 'Risk'
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Wanted to share my thoughts on this topic for a long time but this email sent by someone yday woke me up from slumber

Pls read the email 1st before delving into thread

(1/n)

In the past 1-2 years, there has been a sudden surge of traders who just talk about theta decay, option selling, adjustments and stuff like that..

It is all fair as long as the trader knows what he's doing. But the reality is far from what we see/perceive...

(2/n)

Many of these folks were told that one can 'adjust' their way out of any situation. Any sane options trader know that you cannot come out of any situation by adjustment

One of my friend used to do that(he is famous in options selling desi fintwit) for a long time until..

(3/n)

..he realized that one cannot possibly do that and its gonna burn him one day. He's pretty smart and hence, he put a portfolio level SL & when that hits, he will stop dancing, gets out and calls it a day

So, risk is managed at account level and he is quite clear about it

(4/n)

Unfortunately, 1000s of traders who does option selling(with adjustment) dont have this risk mgmt in place.

They think (i dont know if i had to call it false confidence or ignorance) their skills in 'adjusting' will take them ashore 😅

(5/n)

Like humans , stocks too have different nature and if you are trading every stock the same way then this thread may be for you.

A thread on Nature of stocks and how it can help you to improve your trading results.

First start with what is the nature of stocks ?

I broadly categorize stocks in two categories-

1. The momentum stocks-

These are the stocks where most of the moves are swift in nature, or we can say that the pullbacks in a trend are smaller.

2. The AKBC stocks-

These are the stocks where most of the trending moves comes with deep pullbacks.

Examples-

So the purpose of categorizing these stocks, is that we Trade those stocks/instruments which are more suited to our style.

Say if you are a mean reversion player and you are trading in the momentum stocks category then you are more bound to lose over large number of trades.

𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
The entire thread will have some quick pointers on options trading. These bullet points are based on experience and learning and even if you are completely new,will help you to build some perspective. So,lets go :

-When new,prefer trading monthly options over weekly options to reduce risk
-Set up your trades with greater than 50% Probability Of Profit
- Use implied volatility in your decision making process
-Book some trades at 50% of max profit i.e. locking of profit incase u are buyer

-Don’t adjust losing defined risk strategies. A lot of people get into the bad habit of averaging and run the risk of losing a lot
-Diversify your portfolio across product, direction, and time,this has to be considered while you are planning to put in multiple strikes in folio

-Short Strangles are one of our go-to strategies because of their high probability of profit and increased profit potential.A little effort with understanding of volatility would help
-Allocate no more than 5% of your account to any one trade

-Trade small, trade often to increase your number of occurrences. Some might deny but this works
-In options you might have heard of spreads.Multiple options legs create an options spread. For example, a short strangle consists of selling a call and selling a put simultaneously.

How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,

You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.

If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet

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A Thread 🧵:

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