Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.
Irresistible to leave this moment alone - a thread to share some investment lessons:
1/ Size matters.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed.
Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.
Keynes said “markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.” I suspect this won't take down any significant hedge fund, but it definitely hurts.
Academic finance teaches that “a short sale has unlimited downside and limited upside. Those events almost never play out, until they do.
On the short side, VW stock in 2008.
And on the long side (leveraged), CMBX in November 2008
Both traded to completely irrational levels for a time. True left tail events for those in the positions.
Peter Bernstein’s famous line about risk. A global pandemic leading to a soaring market? Negative interest rates? Online traders crushing monster hedge funds?
Beware those who think in certainties instead of probabilities. @AnnieDuke
We know the outcome of this with near certainty (99%+ probability). GME stock will fall back to a fundamental level when the weighing machine takes over from the voting machine. We have absolutely no idea when - a day, week, month, 5 years? No idea.
My understanding is that Gabe Plotkin is one of the very best investors (process, not outcome). I highly doubt #melvincapital missed much in advance. And yet, here we are. No rebates, volatility, untethered trading - shorting is brutal.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed. And obviously, it's not alone in shorting stocks.
More from Finance
1/ My Mission: To Spread Financial Wellness (thread)
Here’s what "financial wellness" means to me
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
2/ Mindset
Humans are programmed to think short-term
Evolutionary, thinking short-term makes sense. It helps with survival.
Financial wellness is all about training yourself to develop a long-term mindset
Not easy -- it takes practice
3/ Mindset
If you join the right tribes, you can’t help but improve
My favs:
@AffordAnything
@ChooseFiFI
FinTwit
@MicroCapClub
@themotleyfoolFool
@visualizevalue
Twitter / Podcasts / Blogs / YouTube -- when used correctly -- are amazing
4/ Mindset
Educate yourself - constantly!
Especially about:
1⃣Money
2⃣Relationships
3⃣Health
These 3 categories have an outsized influence on all areas of your life
Books
5/ Career
In the beginning, focus on growing your income
Do more than what is expected
Become a lynchpin
Find a career that you ENJOY (<- important!) that also has high-income potential
Start a side hustle (<- important!)
Build your talent
Here’s what "financial wellness" means to me
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
2/ Mindset
Humans are programmed to think short-term
Evolutionary, thinking short-term makes sense. It helps with survival.
Financial wellness is all about training yourself to develop a long-term mindset
Not easy -- it takes practice
3/ Mindset
If you join the right tribes, you can’t help but improve
My favs:
@AffordAnything
@ChooseFiFI
FinTwit
@MicroCapClub
@themotleyfoolFool
@visualizevalue
Twitter / Podcasts / Blogs / YouTube -- when used correctly -- are amazing
1/ YouTube is an AMAZING resource when used properly (Thread)
— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) November 7, 2020
Here are my favorite YouTube channels:
Top 5:
Mark Rober - @MarkRober
Real Engineering
Smarter Every Day - @smartereveryday
Stuff Made Here - @stuffmadehere
Wintegartan - @wintergatan
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4/ Mindset
Educate yourself - constantly!
Especially about:
1⃣Money
2⃣Relationships
3⃣Health
These 3 categories have an outsized influence on all areas of your life
Books
1/ Book recommendations (thread)
— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) November 20, 2020
Start Here:
Choose FI
Richest Man in Babylon
Millionaire Next Door
Rich Dad, Poor Dad
The Wealthy Barber
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5/ Career
In the beginning, focus on growing your income
Do more than what is expected
Become a lynchpin
Find a career that you ENJOY (<- important!) that also has high-income potential
Start a side hustle (<- important!)
Build your talent
Boosting your salary is a great way to turbo-charge wealth building
— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) November 1, 2020
Here's the good news: Your salary is negotiable!@themotleyfool and @ChooseFi have some AMAZING free resources for scoring a big raise:
Use them!
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