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GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - A PRIMER

We have hopefully all seen this wonderful diagram from LLNL showing the Flow Diagram of the world’s Energy Consumption in a very useful form full of diagnostic power

So how did we get to here ?

And where are we going from here ?

 1. The recent history of Global Energy Consumption

Back in the 1800s the primary use of energy was to generate heat by cutting down trees and vegetation and burning them as fuel - referred to here as “Traditional Biomass”

- this was a defining feature of our World 2.0
2. And then with the advent of the Industrial Revolution fossil fuels like Coal, Oil and Gas became increasingly important

- and they started to define many of the characteristics of our World 3.0
3. Wood-burning Biomass has remained as a significant source of Energy even though its proportion has declined

4. Coal reached as high as 50% of our Energy supply and has continued to grow in absolute terms even though its proportion has shrunk to around 25%
5. Oil took over 40% of the Energy market until the Oil Shock of 1973 started changing our attitudes about the efficiency of its consumption

6. And Gas has been steadily growing its share of the market
7. Hydro has long been a part of our Energy sources

8. And technology has more recently enabled Wind and Solar to have growth potential as Energy sources, but their scale remains very small
9. During the last 120 years our primary energy consumption has grown from 12,100 TWh per year in 1900 up to 158,839 TWh per year in 2019, or an increase of 13.1x
10. Since 1973 the growth rate of our global energy consumption has slowed down as we have learned to use these vast amounts of energy more efficiently and more cleanly
11. And the trend-line growth rate has been about +1.65% per annum

- which is almost half of the growth rate of Global GDP which runs at about +3.0% per annum on a trend-line basis
12. We can use this to extrapolate the growth in our primary energy consumption if nothing were to change in our current habits and practices

- and the result would be a consumption rate of TWh 263,800 per year by 2050, or 1.66x higher than the current level as of 2019
13. Which takes us back to our original diagram

This chart tells us that we are consuming 534,000 PJs of primary energy

- but we are only getting 210,000 PJs of useful work out of that

- and 58% of what flows through the system is getting wasted as Rejected Energy
14. This Rejected or wasted Energy is largely a consequence of using Fossil Fuels in heat-cycle engines

- where the laws of physics dictate natural limits to energy conversion efficiency
15. Using Electricity in place of Fossil Fuels completely changes this picture

- we can achieve the same functional outcomes with dramatically less energy consumption because less input energy is rejected as waste heat
16. And this can be true across many of the use cases where we consume Energy

- with Transportation as the single biggest area of opportunity
17. The opportunity exists to reduce our Primary Energy footprint by -50% or more

- which can make a huge difference in many ways even with the natural growth in our Energy needs
18. Achieving this through comprehensive and fundamental changes needs to become one of the most important defining features of our World 4.0

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“Energy needed a digital revolution – and we are it”

Greg Jackson, boss of Octopus Energy, says the sector was ripe for an Amazon or Uber-style disruptor, but that his version will also boost the UK’s green revolution


Greg Jackson, chief executive of Octopus Energy, wears the unassuming combination of jeans and trainers one might expect from the founder of a wildly successful startup

There’s also a vast open-plan central London office, easy camaraderie with staff, lots of plants

He has the enthusiasm and world-changing idealism too

With all these markers of a tech unicorn – a deal last month with Tokyo Gas valued it at $2bn (£1.5bn) – it’s easy to forget that Octopus is an energy company

Jackson, 49, says the distinction is increasingly irrelevant

Octopus is a new breed of energy supplier, built on cutting-edge technology and unencumbered by the creaking billing systems and fossil-fuel plants that plague the UK’s “big six”

Set up just five years ago, it has been free to view the energy market as a tech startup would: ripe for disruption
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South Korean carmaker Hyundai on Wednesday presented the first 7 hydrogen-powered trucks to customers in Switzerland, out of 50 such vehicles scheduled this year to bring zero-emission commercial vehicles to European roads


For long haul, proponents say hydrogen-powered trucks have an advantage over electric rivals as they have a greater range and require less charging times but their uptake and mass production has been slow because they are expensive

However, a McKinsey study in January said that once relative efficiencies of the power sources and lifetime costs of a truck are factored in, green hydrogen could reach cost parity with diesel by 2030

PARITY WITH DIESEL ???

Hyundai has been partnering with Swiss companies to build a value chain covering the production of green hydrogen from hydropower, hydrogen charging stations and the service and maintenance of the trucks

The customers, which include supermarket chain Migros, will be leasing the trucks from Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility HHM to transport goods around the country, backed by the new hydrogen infrastructure
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JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
VW LOOKS INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH

The disruptive threats Herbert Diess saw coming for big, incumbent automakers soon after he took over the top job at Volkswagen Group are playing out as predicted -- only faster and in more dramatic fashion


In an interview, Diess said additional cost reductions and a speedier overhaul of the German industrial giant are vital to withstand new rivals with superior financial firepower

He has been reflecting not only on trying to keep pace with Tesla but on the risk that Apple adds another mighty competitor with almost unlimited resources to the automotive arena

“Despite all efforts, we are currently in a rather more difficult situation than in 2018 when I took office," Diess said

"What really has changed -- and what I had not expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry”

In the almost 2 1/2 years since Diess told investors VW needed to aim for valuation levels more in line with Apple, Amazon and Google to still be around for another two decades, the gap has only grown
FINANCE
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
@bburnworth Here’s some background

1. Global Vehicle Fleet


2. Natural Demand for new vehicles to support the evolution of the Global Vehicle Fleet


3. BEV Penetration S-Curve that you already alluded to


4. Evolution of BEV supply based on combining Natural Demand and the BEV Penetration S-Curve


5. Evolution of Tesla volume based on 20% Global Market Share of BEVs
BUSINESS
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
LEGACY AUTOMAKERS - 2020 NOVEMBER YTD

As we approach the close of the year, how do the legacy automakers see themselves in 2020 ?

Total global industry volume is down -16% so far, and the two largest players reflect that same reality


Renault is down -22%

Nissan is down nearly -30%

And Mitsubishi is down nearly -39%

Which has brought this unstable alliance down by -28.1% overall

Of course, these numbers only reflect the way the industry likes to present itself to you

And many things about them are not quite as robust as they would have you believe

Let’s touch upon a few :

1. A lot of the volume that VW likes to report does not actually belong to them


2. Instead it belongs to Chinese companies that they only have partial ownership stakes in

3. So when VW actually files its own financial statements, a large part of this volume does not get included

4. On this particular scorecard they are reporting production and not sales

5. This is important for investors to understand because you only earn profits on sales and not on production

6. Any reports of sales numbers from legacy automakers have proven to be unreliable, and are prone to “sales reporting abuses”
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Today is “Korean American Day”.

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102 Korean men, women, and children arrived in Honolulu aboard the SS Gaelic to work in Hawaii’s sugar plantations. By 1905, Koreans comprised 11% of Hawaii’s plantation workforce—around 7000 people.


This first wave of Korean immigrants arrived amid sharpening imperialist rivalry in the Pacific. Korea had slowly been losing its independence for decades, and by 1903 was just two years away from becoming a protectorate of Japan.

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I'll bite, Mr. Gray. We can even play by your rather finicky rules.

Let's begin with some of the things you have said about Xinjiang, notably absent from your more recent media appearances, but still present in your blog about your 2014 biking trip.


The following is taken from an ongoing list I keep of people who have been to Xinjiang and written/spoken about their experiences. It is separate from the testimony of detainees and their relatives I also keep. Jerry is on this

Jerry, your article for CGTN, as well as your various Medium pieces, belabor themselves to emphasize the smoothness of your time in Xinjiang. Why did you leave out so many details from your log of your 2014 trip? They seem relevant.

For example, would CGTN not let you speak about Shanshan, the town that evidently disturbed you so much?


Why, pray tell, after noting how kind and hospitable Xinjiang police were to you in 2019 for CGTN—and how you were never told where you could or could not go—would you omit these details?
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Bayo Adeyinka
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The Next 20 Years

Just look around you in Nigeria, for example. 20 years ago, the ATM machine was a novelty. No bank issued debit cards- maybe just the foreign ones. There were no banking apps. You couldn't transfer funds the way we do now.

It took 7 days for your 'upcountry' cheques to clear- meaning that if someone pays you a cheque in Sokoto and you pay it in in Ibadan, you had to wait for 7 days to receive value. Later, it became 3 days.

I recall as a young banker, I used to go to the CBN Clearing House with a box that was locked by my supervisor and which could only be opened by the CBN Clearing Supervisor. I carried that box like it was my life.

I had cheques of other banks and a very huge calculator we called casting machine inside that 'portmanteau'.

Around this period 20 years ago, there was an influx of new generation banks that changed the landscape. Now, see how the banks have changed in 20 years. In just 20 years, the banking sector in Nigeria is the one of the most sophisticated in Africa. So much progress has been made
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#Yemen is a very active topic on Twitter these days, with a number of online campaigns underway, some of which are trending globally. What’s new and interesting is the massive participation by Yemenis using these hashtags #HouthiTerrorismInYemen & #StopHouthiTerrorismInYemen 1/13

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On the other hand, Houthi supporters have rallied behind these two hashtags #YemenCantWait & #DayofAction4Yemen
These hashtags were originally started by NGOs& independent activists, but their goal coincided with the goal of t Houthi, which is ending support for Saudi Arabia 4/13

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THREAD: Toronto – OPSEU/SEFPO President Warren (Smokey) Thomas says proposed changes to the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) announced today would create chaos and uncertainty for many of the province’s most vulnerable people @OPSEU #Odsp

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Purva, Uttara prefixes come in other Nakshatras too. Purva= pehele wala. Remember.

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