LEGACY AUTOMAKERS - 2020 NOVEMBER YTD

As we approach the close of the year, how do the legacy automakers see themselves in 2020 ?

Total global industry volume is down -16% so far, and the two largest players reflect that same reality

South Korean carmaker Hyundai on Wednesday presented the first 7 hydrogen-powered trucks to customers in Switzerland, out of 50 such vehicles scheduled this year to bring zero-emission commercial vehicles to European roads


For long haul, proponents say hydrogen-powered trucks have an advantage over electric rivals as they have a greater range and require less charging times but their uptake and mass production has been slow because they are expensive

However, a McKinsey study in January said that once relative efficiencies of the power sources and lifetime costs of a truck are factored in, green hydrogen could reach cost parity with diesel by 2030

PARITY WITH DIESEL ???

Hyundai has been partnering with Swiss companies to build a value chain covering the production of green hydrogen from hydropower, hydrogen charging stations and the service and maintenance of the trucks

The customers, which include supermarket chain Migros, will be leasing the trucks from Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility HHM to transport goods around the country, backed by the new hydrogen infrastructure

“Energy needed a digital revolution – and we are it”

Greg Jackson, boss of Octopus Energy, says the sector was ripe for an Amazon or Uber-style disruptor, but that his version will also boost the UK’s green revolution


Greg Jackson, chief executive of Octopus Energy, wears the unassuming combination of jeans and trainers one might expect from the founder of a wildly successful startup

There’s also a vast open-plan central London office, easy camaraderie with staff, lots of plants

He has the enthusiasm and world-changing idealism too

With all these markers of a tech unicorn – a deal last month with Tokyo Gas valued it at $2bn (£1.5bn) – it’s easy to forget that Octopus is an energy company

Jackson, 49, says the distinction is increasingly irrelevant

Octopus is a new breed of energy supplier, built on cutting-edge technology and unencumbered by the creaking billing systems and fossil-fuel plants that plague the UK’s “big six”

Set up just five years ago, it has been free to view the energy market as a tech startup would: ripe for disruption

@bburnworth Here’s some background

1. Global Vehicle Fleet

2. Natural Demand for new vehicles to support the evolution of the Global Vehicle Fleet

3. BEV Penetration S-Curve that you already alluded to

4. Evolution of BEV supply based on combining Natural Demand and the BEV Penetration S-Curve

5. Evolution of Tesla volume based on 20% Global Market Share of BEVs

VW LOOKS INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH

The disruptive threats Herbert Diess saw coming for big, incumbent automakers soon after he took over the top job at Volkswagen Group are playing out as predicted -- only faster and in more dramatic fashion


In an interview, Diess said additional cost reductions and a speedier overhaul of the German industrial giant are vital to withstand new rivals with superior financial firepower

He has been reflecting not only on trying to keep pace with Tesla but on the risk that Apple adds another mighty competitor with almost unlimited resources to the automotive arena

“Despite all efforts, we are currently in a rather more difficult situation than in 2018 when I took office," Diess said

"What really has changed -- and what I had not expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry”

In the almost 2 1/2 years since Diess told investors VW needed to aim for valuation levels more in line with Apple, Amazon and Google to still be around for another two decades, the gap has only grown

GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - A PRIMER

We have hopefully all seen this wonderful diagram from LLNL showing the Flow Diagram of the world’s Energy Consumption in a very useful form full of diagnostic power

So how did we get to here ?

And where are we going from here ?

1. The recent history of Global Energy Consumption

Back in the 1800s the primary use of energy was to generate heat by cutting down trees and vegetation and burning them as fuel - referred to here as “Traditional Biomass”

- this was a defining feature of our World 2.0

2. And then with the advent of the Industrial Revolution fossil fuels like Coal, Oil and Gas became increasingly important

- and they started to define many of the characteristics of our World 3.0

3. Wood-burning Biomass has remained as a significant source of Energy even though its proportion has declined

4. Coal reached as high as 50% of our Energy supply and has continued to grow in absolute terms even though its proportion has shrunk to around 25%

5. Oil took over 40% of the Energy market until the Oil Shock of 1973 started changing our attitudes about the efficiency of its consumption

6. And Gas has been steadily growing its share of the market

Over the last week, I've been blocked by various people, including an MSP, for allegedly being a conspiracy theorist, trying to sow division within @theSNP and #indy ranks.

Nothing could be further from the truth. I want independence for Scotland, plain and simple.

But I still have the right to challenge people if I think something is wrong, legally or morally, as recent events within the SNP seem to be.

But anyway, I'm not talking about that. Today I'm looking at the @NowScotlandNow logo.

I'm not a fan. Just to be clear, I want Scottish Independence. But the logo for the new organisation, unfortunately, doesn't work as well as the previous YES ones. It's a mix of the colour and the font used, which presumably is referencing Charlies Rennie Mackintosh.

The italics and thin font means it doesn't stand out. Plus, I associate Mackintosh more with Glasgow than Scotland as a whole. So I took some of the elements of the last two and looked at alternative fonts (that are all free BTW)

This font is called ChuckFive. It's big, bold and brash and you can read it a mile off.

WTO e-commerce #digitaltrade consolidated draft leaked by @bilaterals_org Some interesting things (1/n)

(2/n) Intermediary liability is included without brackets, normally meaning there is some agreement. The text is based on US proposals but has more extensive caveats and exceptions than existing US trade deals

(3/n) No agreement on cross-border data flows at WTO #digitaltrade consolidated text

(4/n) FWIW The UK's (and US) position on WTO #digitaltrade exceptions to the liberalisation of cross-border data flows vs the EU's. Guess which one is which

(5/n) Financial data may be included in the ban on forced localisation of computing facilities, but with many caveats. US regulators had pushed against this in the past but they seem to be losing the battle. Several alt texts. UK to bring more proposals.

THREAD: The story of the week in finance is how a group of retail traders at @wallstreetbets, with assists from @ElonMusk and @Chamath, took down the establishment short sellers at GameStop.

A thread on the underlying mechanics of the $GME saga...

1/ First, for those unfamiliar with the business, GameStop is a videogame and merchandise retailer.

It has >5,000 stores, primarily in malls, across North America, Europe, and Australia.

The business has struggled to modernize, hurting its financial and stock performance.

2/ For a variety of business reasons, a bull (i.e. optimistic) case regarding its future performance has formed.

It really came to the forefront after RC Ventures, an entity managed by Chewy founder @ryancohen, disclosed a large position and assumed three board seats.

3/ @ryancohen summarized his case, stating:

"We are excited to bring our customer-obsessed mindset and technology experience to GameStop and its strategic assets...expanding the ways in which it delights customers and by becoming the ultimate destination for gamers."

4/ At the time of that statement on January 11, $GME stock was trading at about ~$20 per share.

Since then, the stock has surged to ~$200 per share and captured the public imagination.

But how did it happen?

There are two dynamics at play: a short squeeze and a gamma squeeze.

Antares Vision $AV.IM is the world's leading Track & Trace (T&T) and Vision Inspection (VI) solutions provider for the life science sector.

With several catalysts ahead I've initiated a position in this insider-owned small cap 🔽

1/

Antares is the supplier to 10 of the 20 leading pharmaceutical companies in the world having installed +2000 serialisation lines at +200 production facilities in +60 countries.

2/

Antares offers - via software and hardware - the protection of products and brands through visual inspection systems for quality
control, Track & Trace solutions for anti-counterfeiting and supply chain transparency from the point of
production to the end consumer.

3/

All major governments have regulation rolling out in regards to prescription drug traceability.

Penetration, globally, is below 30% and is forecast to double by 2026.

4/

In regards to distribution of Covid-19 vaccines, IBM partnered with Antares to create a solution tracking raw materials and identify shortages. Monitor production yields across manufacturers, guarantee vaccine integrity and prevent counterfeits.

5/