VW LOOKS INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH

The disruptive threats Herbert Diess saw coming for big, incumbent automakers soon after he took over the top job at Volkswagen Group are playing out as predicted -- only faster and in more dramatic fashion

In an interview, Diess said additional cost reductions and a speedier overhaul of the German industrial giant are vital to withstand new rivals with superior financial firepower
He has been reflecting not only on trying to keep pace with Tesla but on the risk that Apple adds another mighty competitor with almost unlimited resources to the automotive arena
“Despite all efforts, we are currently in a rather more difficult situation than in 2018 when I took office," Diess said

"What really has changed -- and what I had not expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry”
In the almost 2 1/2 years since Diess told investors VW needed to aim for valuation levels more in line with Apple, Amazon and Google to still be around for another two decades, the gap has only grown
Elon Musk has beaten him to the punch by fetching an almost $700 billion market capitalization with Tesla, making the company worth more than the next six most-valuable carmakers combined

This is more than just a matter of bragging rights
In a single week last month, Tesla and Chinese electric-vehicle makers Nio and XPeng raised $9.7 billion worth of capital by selling stock

The $5 billion that Tesla raised was equivalent to about half of VW's annual net cash flow
VW group sold 8.31 million vehicles through the end of November last year, dwarfing Tesla's full-year deliveries of almost 500,000 cars
But Tesla's ability to sustain profits for five straight quarters after years of losses ignited investor enthusiasm both about its business and those trying to replicate its success
China’s XPeng and Li Auto listed on U.S. exchanges last year along with several startups that merged with special-purpose acquisition companies, including Nikola Corp and Fisker

Some analysts are warning the trend is overdone
The combined roughly $1 trillion market cap of traditional global auto manufacturers remained largely unchanged over the past 12 months, while the value of new rivals went through the roof
“Valuations of and sentiment toward traditional vehicle manufacturers continue to be far too pessimistic," Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Arndt Ellinghorst said in a note last week
“We remain convinced that established companies with global reach, brand equity and strong balance sheets will play a dominant role in the future of mobility”
UBS Group analysts led by Patrick Hummel have made VW their top pick among European automakers, predicting that "winning EV strategies are likely to be rewarded with higher multiples”
VW Group aims to become a global EV force, with the industry's largest investment plan of almost $90 billion over five years
VW cautioned in November that ongoing fallout from COVID-19 will weigh on earnings this year but stuck to its mid-term financial targets, which include restoring net cash flow to more than 10 billion euros ($12.3 billion) as early as 2022
Delivering on these goals could go a long way to defy skeptical investors that remain unconvinced VW can become more nimble
“We haven't sufficiently proved yet that we can hold our ground in the new competitive environment -- our valuation is still located in 'old auto’” Diess said

“This leads to a grave disadvantage for us in terms of access to required resources”
Investments that VW and its peers are making in EVs, software operations, mobility platforms and self-driving technology will be enormous
Investors would face much higher dilution if the companies were to try raising funds by selling stock as Tesla has, and such a scenario is further complicated at VW by its complex shareholder structure
While profits from Porsche, Audi and its Chinese ventures have filled VW Group's coffers over the years, its high fixed costs were exposed when sales tanked during the pandemic

Earnings at several peers proved more resilient
"We must significantly improve our costs and work on efficiency, to gear the traditional auto business significantly more toward returns," Diess said
He sought to rally the troops last month by declaring VW would pit its largest factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, against Tesla’s plant still under construction near Berlin
VW also embarked on a plan to reduce material costs by -7% within two years and hammer out a deal with unions in the first quarter to lower fixed costs -5% by 2023
Diess, who ruffled feathers last year by trying to narrow the group’s focus on its main car operations, insists the company can ill-afford to waste time

"The overhaul is still progressing too slowly," he said
The former BMW executive received a fresh vote of confidence last month from VW's supervisory board to pursue his overhaul and trim costs
He warns there could be dire consequences if the company that employs 670,000 people worldwide does too little and too late to change

"Not everyone realizes the threat to our company to the same extent," Diess said

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Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!

Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation

It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in


The full thread can be reviewed here:


Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!

Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate

3/


Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.

4/


So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *

This is a key point.

5/

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1

From today, we will memorize the names of 27 Nakshatras in Vedic Jyotish to never forget in life.

I will write 4 names. Repeat them in SAME sequence twice in morning, noon, evening. Each day, revise new names + recall all previously learnt names.

Pls RT if you are in.

2

Today's Nakshatras are:-

1. Ashwini - अश्विनी

2. Bharani - भरणी

3. Krittika - कृत्तिका

4. Rohini - रोहिणी

Ashwini - अश्विनी is the FIRST Nakshatra.

Repeat these names TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon and evening. Like this tweet if you have revised 8 times as told.

3

Today's Nakshatras are:-

5. Mrigashira - मृगशिरा

6. Ardra - आर्द्रा

7. Punarvasu - पुनर्वसु

8. Pushya - पुष्य

First recall previously learnt Nakshatras twice. Then recite these TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet only after doing so.

4

Today's Nakshatras are:-

9. Ashlesha - अश्लेषा

10. Magha - मघा

11. Purvaphalguni - पूर्वाफाल्गुनी

12. Uttaraphalguni - उत्तराफाल्गुनी

Purva means that comes before (P se Purva, P se pehele), and Uttara comes later.

Read next tweet too.

5

Purva, Uttara prefixes come in other Nakshatras too. Purva= pehele wala. Remember.

First recall previously learnt 8 Nakshatras twice. Then recite those in Tweet #4 TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet if you have read Tweets #4 & 5, both.
क्या आप जानते हैं कि क्या है, पितृ पक्ष में कौवे को खाना देने के पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण!

श्राद्ध पक्ष में कौओं का बड़ा ही महत्व है। कहते है कौआ यम का प्रतीक है, यदि आपके हाथों दिया गया भोजन ग्रहण कर ले, तो ऐसा माना जाता है कि पितरों की कृपा आपके ऊपर है और वे आपसे ख़ुश है।


कुछ लोग कहते हैं की व्यक्ति मरकर सबसे पहले कौवे के रूप में जन्म लेता है और उसे खाना खिलाने से वह भोजन पितरों को मिलता है

शायद हम सबने अपने घर के किसी बड़े बुज़ुर्ग, किसी पंडित या ज्योतिषाचार्य से ये सुना होगा। वे अनगिनत किस्से सुनाएंगे, कहेंगे बड़े बुज़ुर्ग कह गए इसीलिए ऐसा करना

शायद ही हमें कोई इसके पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण बता सके।

हमारे ऋषि मुनि और पौराणिक काल में रहने वाले लोग मुर्ख नहीं थे! कभी सोचियेगा कौवों को पितृ पक्ष में खिलाई खीर हमारे पूर्वजों तक कैसे पहुंचेगी?

हमारे ऋषि मुनि विद्वान थे, वे जो बात करते या कहते थे उसके पीछे कोई न कोई वैज्ञानिक कारण छुपा होता था।

एक बहुत रोचक तथ्य है पितृ पक्ष, भादो( भाद्रपद) प्रकृति और काक के बीच।

एक बात जो कह सकते कि हम सब ने स्वतः उग आये पीपल या बरगद का पेड़/ पौधा किसी न किसी दीवार, पुरानी

इमारत, पर्वत या अट्टालिकाओं पर ज़रूर देखा होगा। देखा है न?

ज़रा सोचिये पीपल या बरगद की बीज कैसे पहुंचे होंगे वहाँ तक? इनके बीज इतने हल्के भी नहीं होते के हवा उन्हें उड़ाके ले जा सके।