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VW LOOKS INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH

The disruptive threats Herbert Diess saw coming for big, incumbent automakers soon after he took over the top job at Volkswagen Group are playing out as predicted -- only faster and in more dramatic fashion

 In an interview, Diess said additional cost reductions and a speedier overhaul of the German industrial giant are vital to withstand new rivals with superior financial firepower
He has been reflecting not only on trying to keep pace with Tesla but on the risk that Apple adds another mighty competitor with almost unlimited resources to the automotive arena
“Despite all efforts, we are currently in a rather more difficult situation than in 2018 when I took office," Diess said

"What really has changed -- and what I had not expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry”
In the almost 2 1/2 years since Diess told investors VW needed to aim for valuation levels more in line with Apple, Amazon and Google to still be around for another two decades, the gap has only grown
Elon Musk has beaten him to the punch by fetching an almost $700 billion market capitalization with Tesla, making the company worth more than the next six most-valuable carmakers combined

This is more than just a matter of bragging rights
In a single week last month, Tesla and Chinese electric-vehicle makers Nio and XPeng raised $9.7 billion worth of capital by selling stock

The $5 billion that Tesla raised was equivalent to about half of VW's annual net cash flow
VW group sold 8.31 million vehicles through the end of November last year, dwarfing Tesla's full-year deliveries of almost 500,000 cars
But Tesla's ability to sustain profits for five straight quarters after years of losses ignited investor enthusiasm both about its business and those trying to replicate its success
China’s XPeng and Li Auto listed on U.S. exchanges last year along with several startups that merged with special-purpose acquisition companies, including Nikola Corp and Fisker

Some analysts are warning the trend is overdone
The combined roughly $1 trillion market cap of traditional global auto manufacturers remained largely unchanged over the past 12 months, while the value of new rivals went through the roof
“Valuations of and sentiment toward traditional vehicle manufacturers continue to be far too pessimistic," Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Arndt Ellinghorst said in a note last week
“We remain convinced that established companies with global reach, brand equity and strong balance sheets will play a dominant role in the future of mobility”
UBS Group analysts led by Patrick Hummel have made VW their top pick among European automakers, predicting that "winning EV strategies are likely to be rewarded with higher multiples”
VW Group aims to become a global EV force, with the industry's largest investment plan of almost $90 billion over five years
VW cautioned in November that ongoing fallout from COVID-19 will weigh on earnings this year but stuck to its mid-term financial targets, which include restoring net cash flow to more than 10 billion euros ($12.3 billion) as early as 2022
Delivering on these goals could go a long way to defy skeptical investors that remain unconvinced VW can become more nimble
“We haven't sufficiently proved yet that we can hold our ground in the new competitive environment -- our valuation is still located in 'old auto’” Diess said

“This leads to a grave disadvantage for us in terms of access to required resources”
Investments that VW and its peers are making in EVs, software operations, mobility platforms and self-driving technology will be enormous
Investors would face much higher dilution if the companies were to try raising funds by selling stock as Tesla has, and such a scenario is further complicated at VW by its complex shareholder structure
While profits from Porsche, Audi and its Chinese ventures have filled VW Group's coffers over the years, its high fixed costs were exposed when sales tanked during the pandemic

Earnings at several peers proved more resilient
"We must significantly improve our costs and work on efficiency, to gear the traditional auto business significantly more toward returns," Diess said
He sought to rally the troops last month by declaring VW would pit its largest factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, against Tesla’s plant still under construction near Berlin
VW also embarked on a plan to reduce material costs by -7% within two years and hammer out a deal with unions in the first quarter to lower fixed costs -5% by 2023
Diess, who ruffled feathers last year by trying to narrow the group’s focus on its main car operations, insists the company can ill-afford to waste time

"The overhaul is still progressing too slowly," he said
The former BMW executive received a fresh vote of confidence last month from VW's supervisory board to pursue his overhaul and trim costs
He warns there could be dire consequences if the company that employs 670,000 people worldwide does too little and too late to change

"Not everyone realizes the threat to our company to the same extent," Diess said

More from JPR007

JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
LEGACY AUTOMAKERS - 2020 NOVEMBER YTD

As we approach the close of the year, how do the legacy automakers see themselves in 2020 ?

Total global industry volume is down -16% so far, and the two largest players reflect that same reality


Renault is down -22%

Nissan is down nearly -30%

And Mitsubishi is down nearly -39%

Which has brought this unstable alliance down by -28.1% overall

Of course, these numbers only reflect the way the industry likes to present itself to you

And many things about them are not quite as robust as they would have you believe

Let’s touch upon a few :

1. A lot of the volume that VW likes to report does not actually belong to them


2. Instead it belongs to Chinese companies that they only have partial ownership stakes in

3. So when VW actually files its own financial statements, a large part of this volume does not get included

4. On this particular scorecard they are reporting production and not sales

5. This is important for investors to understand because you only earn profits on sales and not on production

6. Any reports of sales numbers from legacy automakers have proven to be unreliable, and are prone to “sales reporting abuses”
BUSINESS
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - A PRIMER

We have hopefully all seen this wonderful diagram from LLNL showing the Flow Diagram of the world’s Energy Consumption in a very useful form full of diagnostic power

So how did we get to here ?

And where are we going from here ?


1. The recent history of Global Energy Consumption

Back in the 1800s the primary use of energy was to generate heat by cutting down trees and vegetation and burning them as fuel - referred to here as “Traditional Biomass”

- this was a defining feature of our World 2.0


2. And then with the advent of the Industrial Revolution fossil fuels like Coal, Oil and Gas became increasingly important

- and they started to define many of the characteristics of our World 3.0


3. Wood-burning Biomass has remained as a significant source of Energy even though its proportion has declined

4. Coal reached as high as 50% of our Energy supply and has continued to grow in absolute terms even though its proportion has shrunk to around 25%


5. Oil took over 40% of the Energy market until the Oil Shock of 1973 started changing our attitudes about the efficiency of its consumption

6. And Gas has been steadily growing its share of the market
WORLD
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JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
@bburnworth Here’s some background

1. Global Vehicle Fleet


2. Natural Demand for new vehicles to support the evolution of the Global Vehicle Fleet


3. BEV Penetration S-Curve that you already alluded to


4. Evolution of BEV supply based on combining Natural Demand and the BEV Penetration S-Curve


5. Evolution of Tesla volume based on 20% Global Market Share of BEVs
BUSINESS
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
South Korean carmaker Hyundai on Wednesday presented the first 7 hydrogen-powered trucks to customers in Switzerland, out of 50 such vehicles scheduled this year to bring zero-emission commercial vehicles to European roads


For long haul, proponents say hydrogen-powered trucks have an advantage over electric rivals as they have a greater range and require less charging times but their uptake and mass production has been slow because they are expensive

However, a McKinsey study in January said that once relative efficiencies of the power sources and lifetime costs of a truck are factored in, green hydrogen could reach cost parity with diesel by 2030

PARITY WITH DIESEL ???

Hyundai has been partnering with Swiss companies to build a value chain covering the production of green hydrogen from hydropower, hydrogen charging stations and the service and maintenance of the trucks

The customers, which include supermarket chain Migros, will be leasing the trucks from Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility HHM to transport goods around the country, backed by the new hydrogen infrastructure
TECH
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
“Energy needed a digital revolution – and we are it”

Greg Jackson, boss of Octopus Energy, says the sector was ripe for an Amazon or Uber-style disruptor, but that his version will also boost the UK’s green revolution


Greg Jackson, chief executive of Octopus Energy, wears the unassuming combination of jeans and trainers one might expect from the founder of a wildly successful startup

There’s also a vast open-plan central London office, easy camaraderie with staff, lots of plants

He has the enthusiasm and world-changing idealism too

With all these markers of a tech unicorn – a deal last month with Tokyo Gas valued it at $2bn (£1.5bn) – it’s easy to forget that Octopus is an energy company

Jackson, 49, says the distinction is increasingly irrelevant

Octopus is a new breed of energy supplier, built on cutting-edge technology and unencumbered by the creaking billing systems and fossil-fuel plants that plague the UK’s “big six”

Set up just five years ago, it has been free to view the energy market as a tech startup would: ripe for disruption
BUSINESS

More from Finance

Simon Lelieveldt
Simon Lelieveldt
@finhstamsterdam
The Dutch regulator and DNB as financial supervisor are a tough cookie to deal with. In essence they hyperregulate EU-rules into goldplated Dutch rules which go beyond what is prescribed in Europe.

All NL-customers at British banks may thus be kicked out on brexit.

Thread

/1

If we start with the capital requirements directive, it says attracting deposits is forbidden. In article 9.

https://t.co/RYl7SXligC


Now the translation of that rule into Dutch law is slightly expanded to not only prohibit attracting deposits, but to also prohibit, having those deposits under custody ('ter beschikking hebben').

That's not in EU law, but it is in our Dutch law.

https://t.co/PsbWfNY3PA


So if you wonder how this would work out for UK banks and Payment institutions servicing Dutch customers. Have a read at the technical explanation of DNB, the financial supervisor and their summarising table.

https://t.co/LL0fAnYkRJ

Passive servicing of Dutch is not allowed!


Any bank or PSP in the UK that continues to serve Dutch customers (as in retail customers, professional players are excepted) can thus be subject to fines and policing under Dutch law.

Meaning we not only have Accidental American issues in payments, but also Accidental Dutchies
FINANCE
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:

1. How much $$ do you need to retire

Before you start, you must know the end game.

To meet your retirement goals...

How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?

10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT


2. Research a business

Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with


3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

Ming Zhao explains it
FINANCE
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Indian Quant \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Indian Quant 🇮🇳...
@indian_quant
Nano Course On Python For Trading
==========================
Module 3

In this post, I will attempt to teach you how to write an algorithm in python to automatically find support and resistance. We shall use the data we downloaded in module 2.

+

To visualize price action, I have used the daily candlestick chart. To quantify the meaning of support and resistance, I have taken below definitions:
In a series of 5 continuous candles, if the first three candles make increasing high and then 2 decreasing highs, then the

+

high of the third candle is considered resistance. Similarly, if the first 3 candles make lower lows and the next 2 make high lows then the low of the third candle is support.

+


The above explanation is for the sake of quantifying support and resistance at a very basic level. These are called fractals. Now let's get started with the code.

mpl_finance is the new module here. We will use its candlestick_ohlc function.

+


Now, if you remember, you downloaded data for nifty 50 stocks in module 2. We shall use that data. Let's work on ITC data this time.
We will use data from 1 Jan 2021 to 30 June 2021.

+
FINANCE , PYTHON , ALL
Finalysis
Finalysis
@Finalysis20
Attended a clubhouse talk on:

"Common Investing mistakes" hosted by
Hena Mehta @hena1220 co-founder of Basis with
Aditi Kothari Vice Chairperson DSPMF &
Kalpen Parekh @KalpenParekh MD-CEO DSPMF
moderated by Dipika Jaikishan @dipikajaikishan

🧵 on key learnings:
@getbasis
@dspmf


A common investing mistake:

Taking out money when market falls!

Reason:

~ It's difficult to get in once you get out

~ If you manage to get in you will be late and lose the rise in the market.

Don't exit when market falls, neither stop the SIPs.

What's important for an investor?

Avoid being a bad investor; than worrying about being a good investor.

Basic mistake in investing:

Not knowing why we are investing!

We often invest because:

~ Others are doing it
~ We see the particular asset class is popular

But we don't understand the asset class

Wrong reasons for investing in asset class!

Gold : Because of family culture or as a symbol of inter-generational wealth.

FD: Because it's safe

Equity : To double money quickly!
FINANCE
Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
Full chart learning course 🎓
In single thread 🧵

Process of trading through
price action ✨👇

1⃣Time frame - always start looking chart 📊 with higher time frame (weekly/monthly) then after go for lower one .

Positional trader - weekly/monthly

Swing trader - daily /3hours

Intraday trader - 15/30min

2⃣ demand /supply zone - then draw major/minor demand & supply zone .।।।

Ex : #SIS


3️⃣ Trading style -

⚡If you are positional trader then focus on major demand & supply zone.

⚡If you are swing trader then focus on minor demand & supply zone.

Wait for price to come on it then, 👇

4⃣find consolidation -

⚡Positional trader - consolidation should be above 1/2years.

⚡ swing trader - consolidation should be below 1/2 years

⚡Intraday trader - consolidation should above 5/10 days.

Ex - #galxo / #triveni / #vimta
ALL , PRICEACTION , FINANCE

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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Santkumaras-The four adorable kids of the Universe.

The Kumaras r the four sages who roam the Universe as children from the Puranic texts of Hinduism named,Sanaka, Sanatana,Sanandana& Sanatkumara.They r described as the first mind-born creations &sons of the creator God Brahma.


Brahma,who had received the knowledge of Puranas from the Universal being(God Himself), imbibed this to his 4 Kumaras.
Sanat Kumaras then taught the Puranas to Narada.Narada transmitted it to Krishna Dwaipayana who in turn scripted them in monumental epic documents of 18 Puranas.

The Vishnu Purana is recorded in two parts,the Vishnu Purana & Naradiya Purana.The teachings of Sanaka of the Kumara brothers r contained in the Naradiya Purana which is also divided in two parts, the first part containing the teachings of Sanaka &second part,teachings of others.


Born from Brahma's mind,4 Kumars took lifelong vows of celibacy against their father's wishes.They r said to wander throughout materialistic &spiritualistic universe without any desire but with the aim to teach.All 4 brothers studied Vedas from their Childhood&travelled together.


The Bhagwata Purana lists the Kumaras among the 12 Mahajanas(great devotees or bhaktas) who although being eternally liberated souls from birth, still became attracted to the devotional service of Vishnu from their already enlightened state.
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Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
STORY OF PURANAS AND SUB PURANA (उप पुराण).

We have already gone through the series on importance & characteristics of all the eighteen Purans. We also know that originally there were hundred crore shlokas but were divided by Vyas in each Kalp and was compiled as eighteen Purans


for the common people to understand it properly and now their total is about four lakhs.

In Brahm Puran, Brahma preached this to Marichi. So this Puran of ten thousand shlokas is called Brahm Puran.

In Padma Puran, the base of the story is the appearance of Brahma on a lotus(Padm) from Vishnu' s navel.This has fifty five thousand shlokas.

Vishnu Puran is primarily based in Varah kalp. This book is on Vishnu and this book has twenty three thousand shlokas.

Vaayu Puran is written in Shwet Kalp and has twenty four thousand shlokas. Here Vayudev preaches about Dharma.

In Bhagwat Puran, which is written with the base of Gayatri mantra describes Dharma extensively. It has 18000 shlokas. It also mentions the story of Vritrasur.

In Narad Puran, which has twenty five thousand shlokas, is a sermon on Dharma by Narad based in Brihad Kalp.

Markandeya Puran has nine thousand shlokas and here it is through the birds that Dharma is described.
RELIGION
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Delilah S. Dawson
Delilah S. Dawson
@DelilahSDawson
So here is a secret: Not everything I write goes anywhere. I have at least 4 books completely written and edited that never went on submission. I have books that stalled out at 20k. I have docs on my computer with opening paragraphs I don't remember writing. But! 1/

Every now and then an idea sticks with me like that corner of tortilla chip that just won't go down your throat. It happened with SPARROWHAWK, which began as 40k of a YA story, died, and was reborn as a comic, thanks to @christopher_j_r and @boomstudios. And now... 2/

It's happening with THE WILLOWS, a short story that you'll see in @UncannyMagazine next year. This Southern Gothic horror story began as an attempt to sell my next Romance to @AbZurdity after the Blud books in 2014 or so. And she didn't buy it. Guess why? 3/

Turns out, it wasn't a Romance! It was Southern Gothic Horror. Even the bones of it screamed strangeness, not sexiness. I loved the taste of the world, but I hadn't found the right story yet. Tried to write it 2 more times and failed. Until I finally understood what it was. 4/

So I took the 50 pages I'd written and cut half of them, twisting the story around from a gothy Romance inspired by the band the Civil Wars and turned it into a spooky descent into madness. And it looked back at me from the abyss as if to say, DUH. Sometimes... 5/
WRITING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4. @DillikiBiili

Share for the benefit of everyone.

Here are the setups from @Pathik_Trader Sir first.

1. Open Drive (Intraday Setup explained)


Bactesting results of Open Drive


2. Two Price Action setups to get good long side trade for intraday.

1. PDC Acts as Support
2. PDH Acts as


Example of PDC/PDH Setup given
STOCKLEARNINGS , LEARNSTOCKTRADING
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Do you know?

Multiverse is mentioned in several of Hindu Scriptures.

In 1927 came a theory named 'Big Bang' which was a scientific effort to provide some explanation about how our Universe came into existence. It suggested that Universe started as a tiny, hot and dense...


...something that expanded rapidly from the singularity with a big explosion or Big Bang from which formed the galaxies, stars and the rest of the Universe.
However, the science in our Vedas explained these concepts since millennia. Rig Veda mentions Hiranyagarbha and Brahmanda..

...Visphotak which talks about a similar theory.
The concept of Parallel universes may be novel to the modern scientists but it rests very comfortably in ancient Hindu Cosmology. The Puranas are replete with descriptions of many worlds whose inhabitants are ruled by kings in...


...the human plane and Gods in a higher plane. The many Gods in turn belong to many different worlds and planes of existence. At the highest level of hierarchy are the trinity namely Brahma, Vishnu and Mahesha, ruling the divine Kingdoms. Brahma is the creator who dreams...


...the Universe into being, which is maintained by Vishnu. What Humans perceive as reality is in fact the dream of Brahma, misled by matter. Brahman( not to be confused with Brahma) is the ground of all reality & existence. Brahman is uncreated,external, infinite & all-embracing.
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