BC TRUMP
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Ulysses S. Grant would like a WORD

 Or Teddy Roosevelt. Or Dwight Eisenhower. Or Andrew Jackson. Or Abraham Lincoln. Or George Washington. Or Zachary Taylor. Or any of numerous presidents who were honest-to-goodness battle-hardened warriors.
James Monroe fought the Hessians at Trenton and nearly died of wounds sustained there, then wintered in Valley Forge, then fought until Monmouth, then repeatedly tried to raise new regiments for the war until he went bankrupt doing it.
James Monroe, of the Era of Good Feelings, longest serving president of all time.... was in the boats crossing the icy Delaware.
Andrew Jackson was in a duel. He was shot in the chest right by his heart.

But he didn't go down. He stood there and, while bleeding out, steadily took aim and killed the dude who shot him.

Stone cold.
A guy tried to kill Jackson, shooting at hime twice, but the guns misfired. Jackson retaliated by beating the man nearly to death with his cane. Davy Crockett (!!!) had to intervene to save the assassin's life.
Also James Monroe was not the longest serving president dunno how I got that in my head.
I mean look even *James Buchanan* got combat experience in 1812.
Probably the best analog for Trump is Grover Cleveland.

Grover Cleveland hired a substitute to take his place in the Civil War.
Herbert Hoover spent 55 days under siege in Beijing during the Boxer Rebellion. Not quite the same but still kind of a thing.
FDR to his credit *attempted* to join WWI but his resignation from the Navy department was denied; his services as a higher-up were deemed too useful to let him go.
Zacharly Taylor was basically the American Genghis Khan. The dude repeatedly won field promotions on account of personal bravery, excellence as a field commander, and generally having a reputation for charging headlong into danger.
He was accomplished in unconventional (i.e. brutal and inhumane) wars against native Americans.

And then he was the guy Polk chose to start a war with Mexico. He did so. And then he conquered Mexico.
He was known for not wearing any marker that he was an officer in battle because he disliked lording it over his men. And when 16,000 MExican troops under Santa Ana attacked his 4,000 at Buena Vista, he stood and won.
Also he was a Kentuckian so that means he was definitionally a cut above the average American.
Teddy Roosevelt, I mean, that guy

One time he was on a hill in Cuba, and he got to watch it get taken by the innovative use of gatling guns supporting regiment of black cavalrymen!
TR was so manly that he could tell you all about how manly he was.
I'm joking of course his actual insanely tough story is when he got shot while giving a speech and then decided to just keep going and finish the speech.

The dude was DETERMINED TO POAST.
Numerous presidents had front-line experience in the Civil War, WWI, or WWII. HW Bush was shot down in WWII. Even W was at least a guardsman.
HW Bush getting shot down makes it sound like I'm being down on him; I'm not. He was promoted for his excellence beforehand, got shot down in a harrowing battle (captured aviators in that battle were *cannibalized* by the Japanese)... and then returned to service!
Anyways.

Trump is not the manliest president ever.
He is probably the richest president ever, even in inflation-adjusted terms, although what basis you choose for land valuation and valuation of enslaved people held as property gets a bit tricky there.
Certainly, Trump is NOT the wealthiest U.S. president in terms of "wealth as a share of total national wealth." That is almost certainly George Washington.
Trump is also not the most physically imposing president. Three presidents were taller and 5 (including Clinton and HW bush) are the same height.

He is the third HEAVIEST president, of course, after Grover Cleveland (remember him from above?) and Taft, of stuck-in-the-tub fame.
Trump does have the 4th highest BMI of any president, after Taft, Cleveland, and McKinley. He is obese.

Bet he doesn't even lift, bruh
Now, look. I have no military service. I have not killed a man in a duel. I have not been shot while speechifying. In a ranking of most manly presidents, I also would not rank very highly.

But I'm not a president riding on a tough-guy brand for my rapidly-diminishing popularity.

More from Lyman Stone 石來民

Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
After a couple years of ads telling men to do laundry turned out, weirdly, to not boost fertility, Korea is back to financial incentives, which prior research has shown do work but at a very high price.

Korea is adding a $275/month allowance for the first year of a baby's life, increasing the pregnancy medical benefit by $400 or so, and providing an $1800 baby bonus. There's also some unspecified benefits related to leave and high-parity families.

The thing to understand is that these efforts are not *actually* huge. Quoting things in won gives you big numbers so it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we're not talking about enough money to actually offset a large share of wages.

I'm a fan of baby bonuses and first-year benefits. They're probably the most bang for the buck.

But this isn't actually all that many bucks!

These benefits add up to about $5,500 in benefits. A similar program compared to average incomes in the US would be about $8,700.
FINANCE
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
reading the self-important and vaguely-cultish textbooks by bayesians makes me want to go out and kill a sufficiently large number of bayesians that i can estimate the mean pitch of their screams

"when we have multiple models, we should choose one using Bayesian statistics"

no

you should do both and publish an appendix showing robustness tests, you cultist

"but my bayesian model takes 4 weeks to process i can't run 1,397 robustness tests"

yes

exactly

"it's #Actually impossible to use predictive accuracy to test model validity because we can't observe future values!!!"

omg

this is a real critically acclaimed textbook im barely even paraphrasing here

i don't trust quantitative methods where people say, "this method has been in use for centuries!"

that is a solid argument for perhaps a theological proposition

it is not highly compelling for code
CULTURE
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Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
So a few days back I was tweeting about SSRIs. The big question with these drugs is: why do controlled trials routinely show such small effects when practitioners and patients report life-changingly-large effects?

So first off, at this point the evidence is pretty clear that SSRIs and other anti-anxiety/anti-depression drugs truly don't do very much. Their average effects are beneath clinical significance, as I tweeted about here:


Basically, the problem these drugs face is that while they actually see relatively LARGE effects.... but that placebos in those trials ALSO see large effects (and most untreated depression improves within a year anyways).

So basically you have this problem where:
1. The condition tends to improve on its own in a majority of cases
2. Placebo effects for the condition are unusually large

Which means the large crude effects of SSRIs get swamped.

So that raises two new questions.
1. (Not my focus here) Are we treating these conditions appropriately given their untreated prognosis is usually (though certainly not always!!) "goes away in a few months"?

2. Why are placebo effects so unusually large?
DRUGS
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
the strange reality of strict calvinism is that it makes a mockery of God's claims to hate, abhort, or even be theoretically opposed to evil

the calvinist solution to the problem of evil, which I have *literally heard from the lips of a faithful well-catechized Presbyterian* is, "well, all that happens is God's will, and to do His will is to manifest goodness, and goodness gives God joy, so God must rejoice in evil"

The hypothetical I gave was, "Suppose that there was a city of Christians, and a bomber flew over the city, and the guy at the controls tripped and accidentally armed and dropped a bomb, and wiped out the city: is that God's will? What does God think of that?"

His answer in addition to the above cited the Flood, Soddom, and Nineveh.

Because we all know that God's response to the Flood was, "I REALLY liked that, it was AWESOME, it satisfied my will and purposes to obliterate my creation!"

Once you have drunk the "but muh sovrintee" Kool-Aid you cannot escape the argument that literally everything that happens is not just God's will in some philosophical sense, but His will in the sense of "things that bring him pleasure."
FOR LATER READ
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

The Great Man theory of history.... turns out to have some pretty strong statistical support.

School closures had NO EFFECT (precise null!) on socioeconomic outcomes and future schooling behavior during the 1918 pandemic.

The authors note that school closures were not as long back then.

But also school calendars were far shorter. So idk how it shakes out.

Informing men about the odds their wife will die in childbirth reduces fertility, increases marital satisfaction, and reduces mismatch in fertility preferences within couples (in Zambia).
TRADING , FINANCE

More from Trump

Numberonepal
Numberonepal
@numberonepal
1/ Stolen from the greatawakening(DOT)win...

I will only be making one post here. Do not ask who I am. Do with this information as you please.

The Trump Card is being played. It's much simpler than you all realize. Some of you have gotten it right.
TRUMP , THE LAST DAYS IF THE REVOLUTION
Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) The Hitchhiker's Guide to a 2nd impeachment of President Trump: The House can impeach someone twice. And the Senate can even launch an impeachment trial after the President vacates his office.
TRUMP
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Texan
Texan
@Texan_21C
Enough! Reporters doing it again. Both-sidesing. U enable Trump's propaganda by doing this

Reporter's both-sides question:

"What was your role in what happened at the Capitol?

Proper question:

"Are you going to take responsibility for your role in inciting insurrection?"


The press enabled the storming of the Capitol because they never held GOP accountable for pushing #TheBigLie that election was stolen

I have been yelling about this for months. Starting here where @TerryMoran got it right

But after press returned to form


Not long after Nov 4th press started both-sidesing again. Question Republicans were asked over & over was:

"Do u think Biden won?"

This enabled the coup

The proper question at minimum:

"Why are u enabling this charade? Why are u spreading


After repeatedly yelling that press wasn't demanding answers of GOP for spreading #TheBigLie I hoped this political violence on Dec 10th would finally get press to demand answers. But no. They continued to both-sides


I noted how impotent the American press was acting by treating #TheBigLie as credible. The press is supposed to hold people in power accountable, but beside @TerryMoran on election night, they by and large
TRUMP
John Hayward
John Hayward
@Doc_0
I thought often during the latter Trump years about the contrast with Barack Obama's "stray voltage" strategy, which involved saying provocative and often flatly untrue things to prompt discussion of Obama's preferred topics for political gain.
TRUMP
Mona
Mona
@Monaheart1229
Per WaPo:
Trump is working behind the scenes to create a MAGA Party
-endorsing Kelli Ward in AZ
-to primary those who voted against him
-& bc he feels the threat will give him leverage over GOP who may vote to convict

2-"In a recorded phone call, Trump offered his “complete and total endorsement” for another term for Arizona state party chairwoman Kelli Ward, a lightning rod who has sparred with the state’s Republican governor, been condemned by the business community and overseen a recent

3-"flight in party registrations. She narrowly won reelection, by a margin of 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent, marking Trump’s first victory in a promised battle to maintain political relevance and influence after losing the 2020 election.

4-"In recent weeks, Trump has entertained the idea of creating a third party, called the Patriot Party, and instructed his aides to prepare election challenges to lawmakers who crossed him in the final weeks in office,

5-"including Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.), according to people familiar with the plans.
TRUMP

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Anu Satheesh
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Guruvayur Sri Krishna & Coconut with Horns.
#Krishnaleela
#Bhakthi
🕉
We’ve all grown up listening to stories of Shri Krishna. This one is a famous story of Shri Krishna in Guruvayur Temple, also called Dakshina Dwaraka.


There lived a villager who planted coconut saplings and had promised that he would offer the 'first coconut' from each of his coconut trees to "Guruvayurappan". When the trees started to yield coconuts, he collected the first coconut from all the trees in a sack 👇


and set forth to Guruvayur.

On the way he was stopped by a robber who asked all the items in the sack. The villager told the robber that the coconuts in the sack belonged to Guruvayurappan and so he was unable to hand it over.
@SriramKannan77 @Jayalko1


The robber with anger asked the villager "Is Guruvaurappan's coconut any different? Does it have horns ?".
Saying so the robber pulled the sack forcefully out of the villager's hand, and coconuts came out..👇


To their astonishment each and every coconut in the sack had horns! Even today, the coconut with horns are displayed in the temple for devotees to see.

Below Picture is not original, as we cannot take photos inside temple.
Hare Krishna
Guruvayurappa
🕉🕉🕉🕉🕉
Shubham
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Kitze @ \U0001f1e9\U0001f1ea\ufe0f
Kitze @ 🇩🇪️...
@thekitze
To people who are under the impression that you can get rich quickly by working on an app, here are the stats for https://t.co/az8F12pf02

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MAKERS
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Rani Chennamma of Kittur was one of the first women rulers of India who fought against the might of the British Empire in 1824. Rani Chennamma was born in 1778 in a small village of Kakati in Belgaon distt of the State of Karnataka.


She was born into the Lingayat Community to a man named Dhulappa Desai. From a very young age she was trained in horse riding,sword fighting, archery and diplomacy. At a very young age of 15 yrs, she was married to the King of Kittur and became the Queen of Kittur.


It is said that King of Kittur Mallasarja was once moving around in the neighbouring kingdoms to find support to fight Tipu Sultan. It is then, when he came across Chennamma and he immediately got attracted to her sheer confidence and bravery.

Rani Chennamma and King Mallasarja had a son together who died very soon after the death of King Mallasarja in 1816. As the Queen of Kittur, Rani Chennamma immediately adopted Shivalingappa as her son and declared him the heir to the throne of Kittur.

This did not go well with the British East India Company who was enforcing the Doctrine of Lapse those days, according to which the adopted children of the Indian rulers were not allowed to become their heirs and if the native rulers did not have children of their own, their...
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