BC TRUMP
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Ulysses S. Grant would like a WORD

 Or Teddy Roosevelt. Or Dwight Eisenhower. Or Andrew Jackson. Or Abraham Lincoln. Or George Washington. Or Zachary Taylor. Or any of numerous presidents who were honest-to-goodness battle-hardened warriors.
James Monroe fought the Hessians at Trenton and nearly died of wounds sustained there, then wintered in Valley Forge, then fought until Monmouth, then repeatedly tried to raise new regiments for the war until he went bankrupt doing it.
James Monroe, of the Era of Good Feelings, longest serving president of all time.... was in the boats crossing the icy Delaware.
Andrew Jackson was in a duel. He was shot in the chest right by his heart.

But he didn't go down. He stood there and, while bleeding out, steadily took aim and killed the dude who shot him.

Stone cold.
A guy tried to kill Jackson, shooting at hime twice, but the guns misfired. Jackson retaliated by beating the man nearly to death with his cane. Davy Crockett (!!!) had to intervene to save the assassin's life.
Also James Monroe was not the longest serving president dunno how I got that in my head.
I mean look even *James Buchanan* got combat experience in 1812.
Probably the best analog for Trump is Grover Cleveland.

Grover Cleveland hired a substitute to take his place in the Civil War.
Herbert Hoover spent 55 days under siege in Beijing during the Boxer Rebellion. Not quite the same but still kind of a thing.
FDR to his credit *attempted* to join WWI but his resignation from the Navy department was denied; his services as a higher-up were deemed too useful to let him go.
Zacharly Taylor was basically the American Genghis Khan. The dude repeatedly won field promotions on account of personal bravery, excellence as a field commander, and generally having a reputation for charging headlong into danger.
He was accomplished in unconventional (i.e. brutal and inhumane) wars against native Americans.

And then he was the guy Polk chose to start a war with Mexico. He did so. And then he conquered Mexico.
He was known for not wearing any marker that he was an officer in battle because he disliked lording it over his men. And when 16,000 MExican troops under Santa Ana attacked his 4,000 at Buena Vista, he stood and won.
Also he was a Kentuckian so that means he was definitionally a cut above the average American.
Teddy Roosevelt, I mean, that guy

One time he was on a hill in Cuba, and he got to watch it get taken by the innovative use of gatling guns supporting regiment of black cavalrymen!
TR was so manly that he could tell you all about how manly he was.
I'm joking of course his actual insanely tough story is when he got shot while giving a speech and then decided to just keep going and finish the speech.

The dude was DETERMINED TO POAST.
Numerous presidents had front-line experience in the Civil War, WWI, or WWII. HW Bush was shot down in WWII. Even W was at least a guardsman.
HW Bush getting shot down makes it sound like I'm being down on him; I'm not. He was promoted for his excellence beforehand, got shot down in a harrowing battle (captured aviators in that battle were *cannibalized* by the Japanese)... and then returned to service!
Anyways.

Trump is not the manliest president ever.
He is probably the richest president ever, even in inflation-adjusted terms, although what basis you choose for land valuation and valuation of enslaved people held as property gets a bit tricky there.
Certainly, Trump is NOT the wealthiest U.S. president in terms of "wealth as a share of total national wealth." That is almost certainly George Washington.
Trump is also not the most physically imposing president. Three presidents were taller and 5 (including Clinton and HW bush) are the same height.

He is the third HEAVIEST president, of course, after Grover Cleveland (remember him from above?) and Taft, of stuck-in-the-tub fame.
Trump does have the 4th highest BMI of any president, after Taft, Cleveland, and McKinley. He is obese.

Bet he doesn't even lift, bruh
Now, look. I have no military service. I have not killed a man in a duel. I have not been shot while speechifying. In a ranking of most manly presidents, I also would not rank very highly.

But I'm not a president riding on a tough-guy brand for my rapidly-diminishing popularity.

More from Lyman Stone 石來民

Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
So a few days back I was tweeting about SSRIs. The big question with these drugs is: why do controlled trials routinely show such small effects when practitioners and patients report life-changingly-large effects?

So first off, at this point the evidence is pretty clear that SSRIs and other anti-anxiety/anti-depression drugs truly don't do very much. Their average effects are beneath clinical significance, as I tweeted about here:


Basically, the problem these drugs face is that while they actually see relatively LARGE effects.... but that placebos in those trials ALSO see large effects (and most untreated depression improves within a year anyways).

So basically you have this problem where:
1. The condition tends to improve on its own in a majority of cases
2. Placebo effects for the condition are unusually large

Which means the large crude effects of SSRIs get swamped.

So that raises two new questions.
1. (Not my focus here) Are we treating these conditions appropriately given their untreated prognosis is usually (though certainly not always!!) "goes away in a few months"?

2. Why are placebo effects so unusually large?
DRUGS
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
reading the self-important and vaguely-cultish textbooks by bayesians makes me want to go out and kill a sufficiently large number of bayesians that i can estimate the mean pitch of their screams

"when we have multiple models, we should choose one using Bayesian statistics"

no

you should do both and publish an appendix showing robustness tests, you cultist

"but my bayesian model takes 4 weeks to process i can't run 1,397 robustness tests"

yes

exactly

"it's #Actually impossible to use predictive accuracy to test model validity because we can't observe future values!!!"

omg

this is a real critically acclaimed textbook im barely even paraphrasing here

i don't trust quantitative methods where people say, "this method has been in use for centuries!"

that is a solid argument for perhaps a theological proposition

it is not highly compelling for code
CULTURE
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Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

The Great Man theory of history.... turns out to have some pretty strong statistical support.

School closures had NO EFFECT (precise null!) on socioeconomic outcomes and future schooling behavior during the 1918 pandemic.

The authors note that school closures were not as long back then.

But also school calendars were far shorter. So idk how it shakes out.

Informing men about the odds their wife will die in childbirth reduces fertility, increases marital satisfaction, and reduces mismatch in fertility preferences within couples (in Zambia).
TRADING , FINANCE
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
the strange reality of strict calvinism is that it makes a mockery of God's claims to hate, abhort, or even be theoretically opposed to evil

the calvinist solution to the problem of evil, which I have *literally heard from the lips of a faithful well-catechized Presbyterian* is, "well, all that happens is God's will, and to do His will is to manifest goodness, and goodness gives God joy, so God must rejoice in evil"

The hypothetical I gave was, "Suppose that there was a city of Christians, and a bomber flew over the city, and the guy at the controls tripped and accidentally armed and dropped a bomb, and wiped out the city: is that God's will? What does God think of that?"

His answer in addition to the above cited the Flood, Soddom, and Nineveh.

Because we all know that God's response to the Flood was, "I REALLY liked that, it was AWESOME, it satisfied my will and purposes to obliterate my creation!"

Once you have drunk the "but muh sovrintee" Kool-Aid you cannot escape the argument that literally everything that happens is not just God's will in some philosophical sense, but His will in the sense of "things that bring him pleasure."
FOR LATER READ
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
After a couple years of ads telling men to do laundry turned out, weirdly, to not boost fertility, Korea is back to financial incentives, which prior research has shown do work but at a very high price.

Korea is adding a $275/month allowance for the first year of a baby's life, increasing the pregnancy medical benefit by $400 or so, and providing an $1800 baby bonus. There's also some unspecified benefits related to leave and high-parity families.

The thing to understand is that these efforts are not *actually* huge. Quoting things in won gives you big numbers so it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we're not talking about enough money to actually offset a large share of wages.

I'm a fan of baby bonuses and first-year benefits. They're probably the most bang for the buck.

But this isn't actually all that many bucks!

These benefits add up to about $5,500 in benefits. A similar program compared to average incomes in the US would be about $8,700.
FINANCE

More from Trump

sassyzeni
sassyzeni
@sassyzeni
To those who want to actually help Claudia Conway after her mom (Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s former aide) posted her underage daughter’s nudes to Fleets, fill out a report on the NCMEC CyberTipline.
CPS refused to help her.
#HelpClaudia


Kellyanne Conway has a well-documented history of verbally abusing, gaslighting, and threatening her daughter. It gets worse when highly public things go viral (such as exposing the truth about Trump and Conway catching COVID-19 last October). Kellyanne coerces false statements.

Insider did a thorough chronological background of the history of exposing her parents abuse and control of her here: https://t.co/ncjaEyLOSC

We all know that “statement” last year was coerced. She talks constantly about being abused by them.


Personally? I suspect Kellyanne is a narcissist. From my own experience being sexually and emotionally abused by a narcissist, they are obsessed with controlling the narrative (coerced typed statement), discrediting their victim (posting her nudes) & gaslighting

If you haven’t experienced gaslighting or aren’t familiar with it, it’s when someone causing you harm (physical, emotional, sexual, financial, etc) twists the facts and asserts that reality is just you being delusional and you don’t actually understand what happened.
TRUMP
MAKE THE WORLD GREAT AGAIN \U0001f30d
MAKE THE WORLD GREAT A...
@joyoftheawoke
The take down of the Cabal A-Z Charlie Freak & @djmarkdevlin

...In May 2017- Prince alwaleed tala sold his soul to the 13 bloodline families

Thread.. please retweet this truth 🙏


Trump visits the Middle East and receives royal Saudi welcome, highest Saudi honour by receiving the golden collar of abdulaziz al Saud
Not been seen with past presidents ...


When trump arrived in the summer of 2017 14/09/2017 he laid out all the documents, all the folders and they had all the photographs, disks, cds, dvds with all footage of them doing horrific things, the NSA has it all!

2 weeks later the richest men begun getting arrested...

They hand picked Obama, alwaleed tala decided to make Obama the linchpin of the us presidency. Barack has connections all over the cabal
TRUMP
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The Observer
The Observer
@The_Observer_1
CCP EXPERT:WE CAN'T FIX TRUMP VIA WALL STREET,BUT WITH BIDEN...FOR THE PAST 30-40 YEARS, WE HAVE BEEN UTILIZING THE CORE POWER OF THE USA...THERE ARE A LOT OF DEALS.

"We know that the Trump administration is in a trade war with us,so why can't we fix the Trump administration? 1/

Why did China and the U.S. use to be able to settle all kinds of issues between 1992 and 2016? [...] What is the reason? I'm going to throw out something maybe a little bit explosive here. It's just because we have people at the top. We have our old friends who are at the top 2/

of America's core inner circle of power & influence...to put it bluntly, for the past 30 years, 40 years, we have been utilizing the core power of the United States.

[...] since the 1970s, Wall Street had a very strong influence on the domestic and foreign affairs of the 3/

United States. So we had a channel to rely on. But the problem is that after 2008, the status of Wall Street has declined, and more importantly, after 2016, Wall Street can’t fix Trump. It's very awkward. Why? Trump had a previous soft default issue with Wall Street, so 4/

there was a conflict between them, but I won't go into details, I may not have enough time.

So during the US-China trade war, they (Wall Street) tried to help, and I know that my friends on the US side told me that they tried to help, but they couldn't do much. 5/
TRUMP
Jonathan Rauch
Jonathan Rauch
@jon_rauch
Post-impeachment, we can say this: Trump's presidency has amended the Constitution. Not formally, of course, but informally...which matters just as much. Here are the five Trump amendments. 1/9

1. "No president shall be removed from office for treason, bribery, or any other crime or misdemeanor provided a partisan minority of the Senate will protect him (which is always). Impeachment is thus a nullity and presidents can expect impunity." 2/9

2. "Congressional oversight shall be optional. No congressional subpoena or investigative demand shall be binding on a president who chooses to ignore it." 3/9

3. "Congressional appropriations shall be suggestions. The president may choose whether or not to conform with congressional spending laws, and Congress shall have no recourse should a president declare that his own priorities supersede Congress's express will." 4/9

4. "The president shall have authority to make appointments as he sees fit, without the advice and consent of the Senate, provided he deems his appointees to be acting, temporary, or otherwise exempt from the ordinary confirmation process." 5/9
TRUMP
Heath Mayo
Heath Mayo
@HeathMayo
Trump’s belief that he will be reinstated, alongside Flynn’s hope for a coup underscores how patently absurd these 2024’ers sound when they say what we really need is some sterilized version of Trumpism, or Trumpism with a smile.

A smile won’t fix it. There’s no silver lining.

Trumpism threatens our constitutional system by its nature—the threat is what fuels it. There is no “middle way.” You are either with it or against it. It doesn’t offer ideas. It doesn’t want a debate. It doesn’t even want an election. It just wants power at any cost. Defeat it.
TRUMP

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Brian Cates
Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
Trump is gonna let the Mueller investigation end all on it's own. It's obvious. All the hysteria of the past 2 weeks about his supposed impending firing of Mueller was a distraction. He was never going to fire Mueller and he's not going to


Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.
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Lu_lu\U0001f498
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@luciame16
Some thoughts on episode 54 of #Hercai

If you ever cross the distance and come to me, come with love that blooms in your heart.
~ Şems-i Tebrizi

#Reyyan #Miran #ReyMir #EbruŞahin #AkınAkınözü
#HercaiThoughts


1
I have to make a note before writing about this episode. I was the person (still am) who thinks that bringing back D. was a bad idea. I repeat it that for me the writing of S1 and S2 is like tossed into the bin with that plot evolution, but they had to invent something+
#Hercai

2
+ to be able to continue to prolong the general story after Aslan’s story did not work out. All the suffering of M., all the crying seems for “nothing” for two seasons and we viewers are also kind of fed up in seeing him cry all the time when with the upcoming episodes+
#Hercai

3
+he is justified the most to cry. With her resurrection now the attention shifts back to Miran’s storyline and I don’t know if I like this to be honest. This said, Dilsha is here and we have to deal with her.
#Hercai

4
So, my comments are going to be how I find they wrote her into the story, the details we get to know, the flashbacks we get to see, the way it was filmed and directed, with leaving out if I agree on it or not but describing along the way what I saw.
#Hercai
CULTURE
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
NARHARI AND BHAGWAN PANDURANG/VITTHAL

Once a goldsmith by the name of Narhari lived in Pandharpur. He excelled in his craft. He had vowed not to look at Pandurang or visit his mandir ever, as he was a Shiva Bhakt.
One day, a wealthy merchant visited him.


He wanted a gold girdle studded with precious gems, to be made for Prabhu Vitthal. Narhari refused to make it as it was for Vitthal.
After many requests, he agreed to make the girdle but asked the merchant to bring the measurement from the mandir as he himself would not go there


The measurement was given n he made the girdle. When the girdle was put on Vitthal, it was loose. Narhari had to shorten it. Now the girdle became tight. So Narhari was forced to take measurement on his own. He had to go to the mandir but went blindfolded to avoid seeing Vitthal


In the Mandir, when blindfolded Narhari touched Vitthal, he felt as if he was touching Shiva with matted hair, the moon, snake in His neck and Trishul in His hand. Ecstatic with joy, he removed the blindfold to see Shiva but he found the murti of Vitthal with Rukmini there.


He realised the truth that there was no difference between Vitthal and Shiva. Narhari at once fell at the feet of Panduranga. He then took the measurement of the waist of Vitthal and this time the ornament fit the Murti perfectly.

Narayan Hari🙏🏻
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Stambheshwar Mahadev Temple, Kavi Kamboi, Bharuch, Gujarat

Stambheshwar Mahadev is a Hindu Temple dedicated to Bhagwan Shiva, located in Kavi Kamboi in Bharuch District District of Gujarat, India. The Temple is about 150 years old. 1/n


The Temple is also known as the Submerging temple. The Temple is flanked by the Arabian Sea on one side and the Bay of Cambay on the other side.

As per legend, Tarakasura troubled the common people, sages and devas a lot. 2/n


Hence, Bhagwan Kartikeya k!lled him, but later he felt guilty for killing a demon who was a great devotee of Shiva. He went to Prabhu Vishnu and told about his guilty. Bhagwan Vishnu advised him to install a Shiva Linga to get relief from the sin. 3/n


As advised, he installed the Shiva Linga in this place and prayed to Bhagwan Shiva to forgive his sin.
The temple is located in Kavi Kamboi between the shores of Bay of Cambay and the Arabian Sea. This Temple is very simple temple in terms of architecture. 4/n


Every day, during the high tide hours, the temple submerges, and when the tide level becomes normal, the temple reappears again. The Temple houses a 4 feet high Shiva lingam. The Lingam can be seen during low tide. The visit to the temple should be planned in such a way that..5/n
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Kate Julian
Kate Julian
@katejulian
1/ Something strange is happening with people’s sex lives. 20-somethings are having sex later and less frequently than previous generations. I spent several months digging into this for @theatlantic. https://t.co/5ehzmWY9wi


2/ This phenomenon—I’m calling it a Sex Recession—really surprised me. It seemed improbable in the age of Tinder, digital porn, and attitudes that are generally permissive and sex-positive.

3/ What’s happening isn’t exclusively American: Similar trends are being observed in other countries, including Japan, Australia, the U.K., Finland, and the Netherlands.


4/ One cause is obvious: Adults under 35 are less likely to be living with a partner than in recent decades, and more likely to be living with their parents—which, it’s safe to say, isn’t great for one’s sex life.

5/ But I also found other explanations, each with profound implications. The first, unsurprisingly, has to do with internet enticements. Netflix and other online entertainment may be substituting for sex.
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