After a couple years of ads telling men to do laundry turned out, weirdly, to not boost fertility, Korea is back to financial incentives, which prior research has shown do work but at a very high price.
But this isn't actually all that many bucks!
But it's actuarially equivalent to about a $575 increase in the U.S. child tax credit. A non-trivial increase to be sure, but not like a sea-change in family policy regimes.
They're expanding the parental leave benefit to a cap of $14,000 (combined, I think?) in parental wage replacement benefits received across 3 months. I'm not sure what the prior replacement rate was.
Korea spends 1.5%. This program will increase it to 1.6-1.7%.
It's an improvement but it's not a radical change.
More from Lyman Stone 石來民
So a few days back I was tweeting about SSRIs. The big question with these drugs is: why do controlled trials routinely show such small effects when practitioners and patients report life-changingly-large effects?
So first off, at this point the evidence is pretty clear that SSRIs and other anti-anxiety/anti-depression drugs truly don't do very much. Their average effects are beneath clinical significance, as I tweeted about here:
Basically, the problem these drugs face is that while they actually see relatively LARGE effects.... but that placebos in those trials ALSO see large effects (and most untreated depression improves within a year anyways).
So basically you have this problem where:
1. The condition tends to improve on its own in a majority of cases
2. Placebo effects for the condition are unusually large
Which means the large crude effects of SSRIs get swamped.
So that raises two new questions.
1. (Not my focus here) Are we treating these conditions appropriately given their untreated prognosis is usually (though certainly not always!!) "goes away in a few months"?
2. Why are placebo effects so unusually large?
So first off, at this point the evidence is pretty clear that SSRIs and other anti-anxiety/anti-depression drugs truly don't do very much. Their average effects are beneath clinical significance, as I tweeted about here:
What's the best recent empirical assessment of SSRI/SNRI effectiveness which deals with heterogeneity and long-term effects in a plausible way?
— Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11 (@lymanstoneky) December 4, 2020
Basically, the problem these drugs face is that while they actually see relatively LARGE effects.... but that placebos in those trials ALSO see large effects (and most untreated depression improves within a year anyways).
So basically you have this problem where:
1. The condition tends to improve on its own in a majority of cases
2. Placebo effects for the condition are unusually large
Which means the large crude effects of SSRIs get swamped.
So that raises two new questions.
1. (Not my focus here) Are we treating these conditions appropriately given their untreated prognosis is usually (though certainly not always!!) "goes away in a few months"?
2. Why are placebo effects so unusually large?
Ulysses S. Grant would like a WORD
Or Teddy Roosevelt. Or Dwight Eisenhower. Or Andrew Jackson. Or Abraham Lincoln. Or George Washington. Or Zachary Taylor. Or any of numerous presidents who were honest-to-goodness battle-hardened warriors.
James Monroe fought the Hessians at Trenton and nearly died of wounds sustained there, then wintered in Valley Forge, then fought until Monmouth, then repeatedly tried to raise new regiments for the war until he went bankrupt doing it.
James Monroe, of the Era of Good Feelings, longest serving president of all time.... was in the boats crossing the icy Delaware.
Andrew Jackson was in a duel. He was shot in the chest right by his heart.
But he didn't go down. He stood there and, while bleeding out, steadily took aim and killed the dude who shot him.
Stone cold.
Hogan Gidley: Trump is "the most masculine person to ever hold the White House as the president of the United States" https://t.co/fcoYWyaEhz
— Eliza Relman (@eliza_relman) January 11, 2021
Or Teddy Roosevelt. Or Dwight Eisenhower. Or Andrew Jackson. Or Abraham Lincoln. Or George Washington. Or Zachary Taylor. Or any of numerous presidents who were honest-to-goodness battle-hardened warriors.
James Monroe fought the Hessians at Trenton and nearly died of wounds sustained there, then wintered in Valley Forge, then fought until Monmouth, then repeatedly tried to raise new regiments for the war until he went bankrupt doing it.
James Monroe, of the Era of Good Feelings, longest serving president of all time.... was in the boats crossing the icy Delaware.
Andrew Jackson was in a duel. He was shot in the chest right by his heart.
But he didn't go down. He stood there and, while bleeding out, steadily took aim and killed the dude who shot him.
Stone cold.
More from Finance
If you want to become financially independent and don't know where to start, here is a thread that will help you get started
/THREAD/
1. Review your expenses and make a budget
It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start
2. Set your investing and retirement goals
How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to
3. The earlier you start investing, the better.
Here's why and how time and compounding can become your
4. Invest in an index fund
It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
/THREAD/
1. Review your expenses and make a budget
It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start
Budgeting, the 50-30-20 rule, and the envelope method
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 6, 2021
Your first step towards financial independence
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/Tmuc3Itca5
2. Set your investing and retirement goals
How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to
The most important number for your retirement: The 4% rule
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 7, 2021
What Is the Four Percent Rule?
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/8n1R1UZI5c
3. The earlier you start investing, the better.
Here's why and how time and compounding can become your
The Miracle of Compound Interest and the Rule of 72
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 2, 2021
//THREAD// pic.twitter.com/AOqd3kL6cn
4. Invest in an index fund
It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
Jack Bogle, the Father of Indexing
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 8, 2021
How John "Jack" Bogle's creation impacted investors more than Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Warren Buffett combined
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/4wPi8x3cXn
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