Subjectivity in risk management --

I would like to briefly talk about risk mgmt in this thread (something that is not talked about much anywhere else)

The whole question of risk management is far from an objective subject.

1/11

One need at least one subjective piece of the puzzle to put it together, and that is an individual’s acceptance to risk.

Now that is subjective, meaning there is no rule that says how risk averse you should be. That is an integral part of your emotional makeup 😊

2/11
The problem is, human nature does not operate to maximize gain, but rather to maximize the chance of gain, i.e., maximize the # of winning trades & minimize the # of losing trades.

The result is, not only is risk controlled, but profitability is also controlled 😆

3/11
In other words, playing it safe can be just as bad as taking too much risk, because you are not optimizing your winning trades nor the days with extended ranges.

Sure, it's possible to develop trading idea based on tick charts(scalping) that will on average be profitable

4/11
However, the average profits on individual trades from such methodologies are microscopic, and the trades they generate are so many that it not reasonable to scale up these strategies.

Dont even get me started on costs and slippages here 😊

5/11
From modern portfolio theory POV, we can think of the trading profit on any given trade, as the compensation we receive for the risk we took on the trade.

Basically, the mkt demands a premium from the trader for taking less risk & rewards him with reduced profitability 😄

6/11
Ultimately, it is not what the trader knows, but who he is. The really profitable traders are able to ignore/weaken their natural tendencies to do what feels comfortable & instead, do what is essential, to be profitable.

This sounds innocuous but pls think abt it for a sec

7/11
If we don't take a chance, we won't get hurt, but on the other hand, we'll never know what could have been.

On top of that, if we don't take risk after risk, by making trade after trade, we will never sharpen our trading skills, and we will never become a winning trader.

8/11
So when we face risks and possible losses, it’s wise to not despair about it.

Let me leave this thread with these three quotes –

1. A Ship in Harbor Is Safe, But that Is Not What Ships Are Built For – John Shedd

9/11
2. People who look for easy money invariable pay for the privilege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this earth - Jesse Livermore

Easy come, easy go 😅

10/11
3. Even though most ppl think they are trying to succeed, they are simply going through the motions. The last thing in the world they want is to get off the familiar treadmill & actually get somewhere - Chin-Ning Chu author of "Thick Face, Black Heart"

Happy trading 😊!!

11/11

More from Trading

1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...

Yesterday was brutal for some people...

Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.

2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.

https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0

tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it

2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.

3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.

If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.

4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information

And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.

5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?

I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.