BC TRADING
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

It looks like every symptom on Google search leads to cancer.

So, when you have a symptom that Google screams CANCER, should you be afraid?

Before I answer that for you, let's talk about Occam's Razor and how you can use it to simplify your life.

Let's dive in. 👇👇👇

 1/ In the early 1900s, two physicists studied space and time and arrived at a similar conclusion: things tend to go a little bonkers within the space-time continuum.

Ex: The closer we get to moving at the speed of light, the more we slow down.
2/ Both the scientists arrived at the same results through their equations & derivations. But both had different explanations.

One suggested that the phenomenon was due to the changes that took place within "the ether". Another didn't refer to the ether at all.
3/ The latter won the Nobel prize and the world reveres him as a genius.

The former was the physicist named Lorentz.

The latter was Einstein.

This was the Einstein-Lorentz Relativity priority dispute that we are talking about.
4/ Lorentz's explanation wasn't given preference because according to science, the ether doesn't exist. When that's introduced into the equation, it makes things complicated.

Einstein used no references to the ether, and his simpler explanation rooted in scientific method won.
5/ This is classic Occam's Razor at play.

Occam's Razor is a philosophical tool, a mental model used in problem solving.

What does it say?

"Entities should not be multiplied without necessity"

In other words,

"The simplest explanation is usually the right one".
6/ Why is it called a "Razor"?

It helps shave off unnecessary, unlikely explanations and factors from explanations.

Whenever you have a hypothesis with two competing explanations, the simpler explanation is the most likely to be the valid one.
7/ Now, how do you deal with seeing Cancer in search results of your symptoms?

A version of Occam's Razor, "The Zebra" suggests you reject an exotic medical diagnosis when a more commonplace explanation is more likely.

"When you hear hoofbeats, think of horses not zebras"
8/ So, the next time you search for a symptom, let's say a headache, and Google would say it's a brain tumor.

A simpler explanation might say it's common cold or dehydration.

Which one is more likely to be valid? The simpler one.
9/ How can you use the knowledge of this law/razor in your trading and investing?

Let's first understand the two principles that constitute the razor.

i) Plurality should not be posited without necessity

ii)It is pointless to do with more what is done with less
10/ Together, these two principles form the Razor we use to shave off unnecessary factors in explanations.

You wouldn't use 3 men to do a one man's job. It's a waste of resources.

You wouldn't have 2 jobs, if you get a job that pays the equivalent of two.
11/ In trading, you apply Occam's razor by simplifying the trading process itself.

- You clean up your desk.
- No need for 5 monitors. One or two would do.
- You reduce your inputs for trading (news, media, TV, online forums).
12/ People perceive trading and investing to be difficult endeavors.

Because of this, you're often drawn to complex answers/solutions to succeed in them.

That's why complicated systems, indicators, workshops are all popular.

Very few believe simple things work.
13/ If you're a systematic trader, you're probably trying to cram as many rules as possible. You add more parameters, do more optimizing.

While this might get you a better backtest result, it will often result in the system not working in real time.
14/ As you add more parameters to your system, you're adding more complexity to your system.

The more the optimization, the more curve fitted the system to data.

Complex systems are usually fragile.

As the number of parameters grow linearly, complexity grows exponentially.
15/ On the contrary, it's possible to generalize some predictability into a trading strategy with fewer parameters and rules.

Simpler concepts and simpler rules based on fundamental market principles work.

They are also less likely to change in future.
16/ If you're a discretionary trader, you're likely following

- Twitter chatter, trends
- NSE announcements page
- Bloomberg, CNBC, Moneycontrol

and many other sources while trading.

Sometimes with these sources providing conflicting information, you can't even trade.
17/ This is called "analysis paralysis due to information overload".

You get all the information you need from the charts itself.

At worst, you'd need only one good news source to take your decisions.
18/ "More is better" is a wrong notion, especially in trading.

More knowledge won't bring more success beyond a point.

In fact, it's highly correlated to detrimental returns.
19/ This is where the law of diminishing returns come into picture.

Your returns increase proportional to effort/time/resources invested up to a certain point.

Beyond that, the returns diminish.

We see this phenomenon everywhere.
20/ Smartphones above a certain price point don't offer proportional value.

Above a certain net-worth number (say $100M), life doesn't get any better in proportion to extra money.

Likewise, doing more doesn't mean achieving more in proportion, beyond a certain point.
21/ So, when it comes to trading, try the following:

- Fewer/no indicators (naked charts)
- Less tweaking in backtests
- Maximum one or two instruments traded
- Cut off news, twitter, TV during trading hours.
22/ How to use the razor for investing?

Owning 5-6 mutual funds, you end up having overlapping stocks across funds.

You end up owning over 200 stocks, getting returns that are worse than the index.

Either go for one or two multicap/hybrid funds, or do passive index investing.
23/ Don't hire 3-4 advisors / research advisories, who all tell you different things.

One may want you to move to cash.

Another may tell you to invest more.

Another would tell you to liquidate and put everything into gold/real estate.

Which one do you listen to?
24/ So, simplify.

Find one financial advisor who understands your risk metrics, your financial goals, and tailors a plan for you.

That is more often enough to go after your financial goals in the most sustainable manner.
25/ Similarly, if you're into independent stock analysis, it may be tempting to use multiple models at the same time for valuation.

That doesn't make the process any better, only more complicated.

Keeping it simple and sticking to optimal number of inputs is important.
26/ All that said, "simple" ≠ "easy". Simple only means uncomplicated.

A simple process or system is not easy to develop.

It takes effort, probably years to develop a simple process that's robust enough to use consistently.
27/ Once you develop a simple plan, it requires discipline to execute. And, discipline doesn't come easy either.

There will be certain amount of complexity required to solve any problem, be it in anything.

We call this "intrinsic complexity".
28/ Anything that doesn't contribute to solving the problem is "accidental complexity".

So, the focus should be to avoid accidental complexity.

You must work with only the intrinsic complexity underlying any problem at hand. Avoid introducing accidental complexities.
29/ The next time you face a problem, or you want to improve in something,

- try simplifying the process
- try choosing fewer inputs.

That will improve most decisions you make.
30/ If you enjoyed this thread, smash the follow button on my profile to be notified every time I publish a thread.

Also, what are the things you feel are too complicated in your life right now? Comment below. Let's discuss a simpler approach to it.

More from Shravan Venkataraman 🔥🚀💰

Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
** MEGA THREAD ON INVESTING **

I was thinking about what kind of resources I'd want to have if someone has to start learning investing right now, the ones I wish I had two three years back.

This thread is a compilation of the best resources I have come across. 👇👇👇

Let's start with ** BOOKS **

1) The Intelligent Investor - Ben Graham :

Classic book, suggested by investors all over the world. Start with this book.

2) One up on Wall Street

Peter Lynch covers his strategies to find 10 baggers, and describes how an average Joe can do as well as the pros with simple methods and rock solid discipline and consistency backing it.

3) Common Stocks Uncommon Profits

This is a Phil Fisher classic.

It's on the other end of the spectrum as the book dives into a deep qualitative approach in value investing rather than being fully quantitative like Ben Graham's.

4) Security Analysis

Another book by Ben Graham that dives deep into analysing and understanding the valuations of any company you pick up to study.
SCREENERS
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
Hedge Funds spend millions of dollars per year to access high quality financial datasets.

Retail sources cost anywhere from $5k-50k per year.

But, here are 11 data sources that have HIGH QUALITY and FREE data you can access right away.

🧵 👇

1/ Alpha Vantage | https://t.co/ExlS7Jdnsz

Provides real time & historical equities, forex, and cryptocurrencies data across 60+ exchanges.

They provide both intraday and D/W/M timeframe data.

You can also access economic & fundamental data for last 20 years through them.

2/ IEX | https://t.co/drqeoU8Ee1

Investors Exchange provides historical data going back upto 15 years for US equities through API access.

You'll need an API key in order to access the API.

3/ EconDB | https://t.co/6mZxDeaJfh

This website provides economic data and economic indicators for almost all the countries in the world.

You can search for your preferred dataset through their search engine here

4/ Quandl | https://t.co/fW4PEQaW66

Quandl has financial and alternate data across 50+ exchanges, from over 300 sources.

They also have information on capital markets, energy, shipping, healthcare, education, demography, economics and society.
ALL
Advertisement
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
Have you ever had 4-5 profitable trades in a row, and you bet all your profits on your next trade feeling "in the zone" only to lose it all?

That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.

I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.

Thread below 👇👇


1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.

If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.

This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.

2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.

This is classic hot-hand fallacy.

Each ball's outcome is independent.

The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).

These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.

This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.

3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.

These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".
TRADING
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
**Time for a thread**

Through the last three years of experience in the entrepreneurship space, I understood why phenomenons like

- black money
- hawala
- money laundering
- tax fraud
- overclaiming of tax returns
- not reporting income

and other such scenarios exist.

1/ Running a business, especially with all the licenses and the jazz is like standing in a traffic signal.

The signal may still be red. But if vehicles have started moving, they will keep honking and hurling abuses at you for not moving and breaking the rules along with you.

2/ The corrupt system begets corruption.

The government employees seek bribe for every single thing that they are being paid to do as work.

If you don't pay them, your business will not get set up.

If you don't pay what they ask for, they will point out hundred issues.

3/ So, the base for corruption gets set up when you start your business.

You unwittingly become an accomplice to the systemic corruption.

If you don't bribe, your business won't get off the ground and you can't make money.

So, you are cornered to have to pay a bribe.

4/ Now, your business gets off the ground. But you have to get loan to set it up.

You go to MSME. They get you the loan. They also provide subsidy relief.

The catch: The officer asks you to pay 10-15% of subsidy as "formality" to ministers and the chain of command.
BLACK MONEY
Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
** MEGA THREAD ON Cryptocurrencies/Blockchain**

I wanted to know the best resources to learn about cryptocurrencies and blockchain for someone with zero knowledge. I asked Twitter, and Twitter answered.

This thread is a compilation of the best resources I was recommended. 👇👇

Let's start with ** BOOKS **

The first thing you should do before you pick up any book:

Learn about Bitcoin & Ethereum by reading the respective whitepapers.

- [Bitcoin white paper](https://t.co/cErOaFn6QL) by Satoshi Nakamoto

- [Ethereum White paper] (https://t.co/0g5kYCGJGq) by Vitalik Buterin

Even if you are not tech savvy, you can get a good grasp about how blockchain functions from these papers.

1) *The Basics of Bitcoins and Blockchains: An Introduction to Cryptocurrencies and the Technology that Powers Them* by Antony Lewis

This book covers topics such as the history of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin blockchain, and Bitcoin buying, selling, and mining.

It also answers how payments are made and how transactions are kept secure.

Other cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency pricing are examined, answering how one puts a value on cryptocurrencies and digital tokens.
FINANCE

More from Trading

Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.

So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)

Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)

For option writers who want to trade in neutral strategies like straddle, strangle, ratios, calendar etc, delta can be very helpful. So be it any complex strategy, knowing the NET DELTA can give you an idea of how your strategy will perform in different scenarios. (4/n)

Net delta is just the sum of the deltas of all the bull options (call+ & put-) minus the bear options (call- & put+).

So if we can track this, we will always be in the know of how much exposed our position is. It makes it easier then to adjust our position. (5/n)
TRADING
10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
TRADING
Advertisement
Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: Parabolic SAR Indicator

Parabolic SAR (PSAR) indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder.

#PSAR #Indicators #Definedge


The calculation of this indicator is a bit complex, but the concept is extremely useful. I will try to simplify it and explain the logic. I will briefly explain the concept, calculation and reading.

Let us think about creating an indicator that shows the trend.

Using the indicator, we can identify & ride the trend using the trailing stop-loss method.

For trailing the stop in uptrend, indicator needs to be placed below the candle. Similarly, it should be placed above the candle for trailing in a downtrend. We will plot it using ‘dots’.


So, the indicator & stop-loss will be rising in uptrend & falling in downtrend.

Let us define the trend as:

If Low of the candle > Stop-loss level in bull market = Trend remains bullish.

If High of the candle < Stop-loss level in bear market = Trend is bearish

Imagine you are driving a car on highway; you would like to accelerate if the road is clear. You will slow down if the road is bumpy.
TRADING
Anshika Sharma\u26a1
Anshika Sharma⚡
@Anshi_________
Full Technical Analysis in Single Thread🧵

This whole course is worth 40-50K-

1- Candle sticks and how to use

2- Advanced price action

3- The dow theory

4- Moving
ALL , TRADING , TECHNICALANALYSISCOURSE
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
TradingView isn't just charts

It's much more powerful than you think

9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis

Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser

Step 2. Login to trading view

Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows

Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.

Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"


What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.

Refer to the attached picture.

The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.

Also, do note:

I do not have the paid version of trading view.


2/ Free Multiple Watchlists

Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free


3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors

You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.

1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.

Kinda like how I did in the picture below.
SCREENERS , ALL , TRADINGVIEW

You May Also Like

Professor
Professor
@DillikiBiili
So friends here is the thread on the recommended pathway for new entrants in the stock market.

Here I will share what I believe are essentials for anybody who is interested in stock markets and the resources to learn them, its from my experience and by no means exhaustive..

First the very basic : The Dow theory, Everybody must have basic understanding of it and must learn to observe High Highs, Higher Lows, Lower Highs and Lowers lows on charts and their

Even those who are more inclined towards fundamental side can also benefit from Dow theory, as it can hint start & end of Bull/Bear runs thereby indication entry and exits.


Next basic is Wyckoff's Theory. It tells how accumulation and distribution happens with regularity and how the market actually

Dow theory is old but
SCREENERS , ALL , MARKETESSENTIALS
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Sri Parasurameswara Swamy Mandir, Gudimallam, Andhrapradesh

Gudimallam is a small village located in Chittoor district. It is seven miles away from Tirupati. This small village came to significance,due to it's very beautiful Shiva Mandir with history of thousands of years. 1/n


The main importance of the mandir lies in the Linga which is housed in the Garbhagriha of the temple & considered as the only one of such type. It is the earliest Linga discovered so far and it has been assigned to the 3rd century BCE.(Satavahana period) 2/n
ALL
Advertisement
Conviction | Patience
Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue
H was always unseen in S2NL :)

Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.

Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
UVLEARNINGS
Sumit Grrg
Sumit Grrg
@sumitgrrg
These 10 threads will teach you more than reading 100 books

Five billionaires share their top lessons on startups, life and entrepreneurship (1/10)


10 competitive advantages that will trump talent (2/10)


Some harsh truths you probably don’t want to hear (3/10)


10 significant lies you’re told about the world (4/10)
ALL , MOTIVATION , BOOKS
V\u0936\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f
Vशुद्धि...
@V_Shuddhi
The first ever world map was sketched thousands of years ago by Indian saint
“Ramanujacharya” who simply translated the following verse from Mahabharat and gave the world its real face

In Mahabharat,it is described how 'Maharishi Ved Vyasa' gave away his divine vision to Sanjay


Dhritarashtra's charioteer so that he could describe him the events of the upcoming war.

But, even before questions of war could begin, Dhritarashtra asked him to describe how the world looks like from space.

This is how he described the face of the world:

सुदर्शनं प्रवक्ष्यामि द्वीपं तु कुरुनन्दन। परिमण्डलो महाराज द्वीपोऽसौ चक्रसंस्थितः॥
यथा हि पुरुषः पश्येदादर्शे मुखमात्मनः। एवं सुदर्शनद्वीपो दृश्यते चन्द्रमण्डले॥ द्विरंशे पिप्पलस्तत्र द्विरंशे च शशो महान्।

—वेद व्यास, भीष्म पर्व, महाभारत


Meaning:-

हे कुरुनन्दन ! सुदर्शन नामक यह द्वीप चक्र की भाँति गोलाकार स्थित है, जैसे पुरुष दर्पण में अपना मुख देखता है, उसी प्रकार यह द्वीप चन्द्रमण्डल में दिखायी देता है। इसके दो अंशो मे पीपल और दो अंशो मे विशाल शश (खरगोश) दिखायी देता है।


Meaning: "Just like a man sees his face in the mirror, so does the Earth appears in the Universe. In the first part you see leaves of the Peepal Tree, and in the next part you see a Rabbit."

Based on this shloka, Saint Ramanujacharya sketched out the map, but the world laughed
ALL


Category Partner: Enkryptopedia