When any index falls 20% or more from it's all time high, it is termed to be in a #bearmarket 🐻
How do you calculate length of a bear market? The time duration in days from previous all-time high to market bottom.
2/n
I analyzed 25+ years of #Nifty data to better understand bear markets 🐻
Why?
Given the recent market sell-off and bearish stance of market participants, history and data is your best guide to prepare if we're headed for a bear market.
Thread with findings below 🧵👇
1/n
When any index falls 20% or more from it's all time high, it is termed to be in a #bearmarket 🐻
How do you calculate length of a bear market? The time duration in days from previous all-time high to market bottom.
2/n
Number of Bear Markets = 8
Average drawdown % = -38.5%
Average bear market duration = 246 days (8 m)
Key takeaway - Bear markets occur every ~3 years and take on average 8 months to bottom
3/n
Unbelievably, 1997 had 2 bear markets! Just imagine suffering 20% drawdowns twice in a few months!
Mar 2020 Covid crash was the 3rd fastest and 3rd worst bear market.
4/n
The no of days from market bottom to a new all-time high.
Sadly, bear markets take time to recover.
Almost double the time to recover to a new ATH compared to the time to form a bottom.
Avg recovery duration – 495 days
5/n
495 days or 16 months is the avg bear market recovery duration but they have been as short as 78 days (1997) or 138 days (2006).
5 out of 8 bear markets recovered within 8 months
Takeaway – Most bear markets recover within a year
6/n
We have all heard about 2003-07 bull market.
Nifty went ~7x in 5 years
April 2003 - 920
Jan 2008 - 6357
But even one of India's biggest bull markets had 2 bear markets in 2004 and 2006.
Bull markets never go up in a straight line.
7/n
The answer to this question has gradually changed in the past 25 years.
Between 1997-2013, the market was in bear market territory every single year barring just 2 years.
8/n
But in a span of 17 years between 1997-2013, our markets spent close to ~50% time in bear market (20%+ decline) territory.
9/n
Complete opposite to above chart, Nifty has spent 50% time in last 9 years near ATHs.
And spent just 4% time in bear market territory
10/n
So, 15%+ declines from ATH can be used as a good metric to increase equity allocation in my view.
11/n
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RT-PCR corona (test) scam
Symptomatic people are tested for one and only one respiratory virus. This means that other acute respiratory infections are reclassified as
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It is tested exquisitely with a hypersensitive non-specific RT-PCR test / Ct >35 (>30 is nonsense, >35 is madness), without considering Ct and clinical context. This means that more acute respiratory infections are reclassified as
3/12
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4/12
Even asymptomatic, previously called healthy, people are tested (en masse) in this way, although there is no epidemiologically relevant asymptomatic transmission. This means that even healthy people are declared as COVID
5/12
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4/12
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5/12
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