A Bloomberg article today reported that human-run hedge funds trounced quants in 2020 - a turnaround from the experience of recent years. Renaissance Technologies - run by Jim Simons - saw its Institutional Diversified Alpha & Global Equities funds fall by 32% and 31%

THREAD: What is Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle and how it impacts India?

Golden Crescent region of South Asia - comprises of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan - which is a principal global site for opium production and distribution.

Golden Triangle is the area where the borders of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar meet at the confluence of the Ruak and Mekong rivers. The Golden Triangle is called so because of the triangular shape formed by the locations of New Delhi, Agra and Rajasthan on a map.

India is wedged bw world’s 2 largest areas of illicit opium production, Golden Crescent & Golden Triangle, that has made Indian borders vulnerable to drug trafficking. It flows from 2 fronts, NW & NE, that possesses dual concern - violation of border & threat to national security

- Golden Crescent is world’s leading opium and cannabis producing region since 1983.

- Its proximity to Indo-Pak border has worsened the trafficking of hashish and heroin into Indian soil

- Trafficking happens through the border states of J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

- Golden Triangle is leading opium producing region of the South-east Asia, also an ancient narcotics supply route to North America & Europe.

- Myanmar-Northeast nexus is recognized by NCB as the root of heroin & chemical drugs

- Myanmar produces 80% of heroin produced in world

Technical Analysis Masterclass- Part 2

'Entering the trade'

Entering a trade without ascertaining a certain things is gambling.

In this masterclass we will learn the pre-requisites to enter a trade.

DON'T ENTER A TRADE WITHOUT DETERMINNG THE FOLLOWING.

Please share.

We understand what reward to risk (popularly called risk to reward) is.
It will be denoted by R:R.

We will also try to bust a few myths about R:R and how to avoid losing trades.

Before entering a trade, you need to determine 3 things.

1. Entry trigger
2. Stop loss
3. Target

1. Entry trigger = Reasons for entering a trade. There could be multiple reasons or a single reason for entry.

Generally a set of reasons AKA confluence is a higher probability trade and a generally a safer entry.

Example of an entry trigger.

2. Stop Loss.

The price in the opposite direction of the trade where the trade is exited, at a loss.

At this level, the reason for the entry becomes invalidated according to TA and the price can then move in the opposite direction, probabilistically.

3. Target is the possible price level that the asset might touch based on previous trends or confluence AND where a possible reversal could occur.

Target is the next path of least resistance from where the price might reverse.

We will always ONLY use TA to determine all 3.

👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?

One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.

The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.

I present to you all, my (possibly) superthread On how and why the Unknown God from Genshin Impact, and The Herrscher of Void/God Kiana/Sirin from Honkai Impact!

First off! We’ll start with the obvious things that constitute a possible connection.

They share the same Japanese Voice actress! Rie Kugimiya.
Usually this is a stretch reason, but considering everything else, it’s not unlikely that it’s the same character.

Secondly, their Appearances.
The both have very long white hair with identical bang style, and a very noticeable small piece of hair on top that curls upwards. That’s a defining part Of all of Kiana’s hairstyles, and for it to be shared with this god says something.

Another notable thing is their eyes. They both have Glowing golden eyes with very similar appearances. They contain a ring, and a 4-point star pupil. Resemblant of a scope if you will. That’s The Herrscher of Void’s defining characteristic

If you’d even like to take a look at their outfits, there’s resemblances including the black fur collar, the designs on the torso and chest, and the use of something similar to coat tails/skirt. The Herrscher can change their outfit and they aren’t stuck with one. Sirin does this