BC TRADING
Saved by @Shubham51ngh

This friend had trouble making money in options though he was directionally right. Let us see how a basic understanding of greeks would have helped him, This thread will be about two attributes of option pricing, extrinsic value and theta

 An option has two parts, intrinsic and extrinsic value. Think of a pack of Lay's potato chips. When you buy and open the pack, what you find is some chips and a lot of air. Intrinsic value is the chips, extrinsic value is air
https://t.co/8ZPv4ZnCiL
https://t.co/icWmqSLENW
https://t.co/vHA6azEmbQ
Let us stop for a second here. When our friend was buying the 31700CE, he was buying pure extrinsic value, i.e, AIR
He has a second problem, theta.

What is theta ?
Watch this example for theta. These are actual calculations of greeks
https://t.co/kxHNu8eGYY
https://t.co/IgXzrssx5f
https://t.co/w1KFFZVZkh
DTE = Days to expiration. Watch that the theta decay curve is not linear, it speeds up as we approach expiration
https://t.co/wWYA331uQi
Theta decay starts to accelerate at 13 DTE. From 6DTE, it justs accelerates like crazy . This is true for all options
So our friend in this example was hit by a double whammy ( triple actually, due to vega, but vega on a later day. Explaining vega will confuse if you are a novice).
1. He was playing pure extrinsic value
2. He has a high theta burn rate so close to expiry, the highest
Hence, his 31700 call was not moving up fast. It was continuously losing theta. Being an OTM option with pure extrinsic value, the theta burn was very high
So what is the solution ? An options buyer has to negate theta burn to a certain degree. Best way ? Should have used a bull call spread. What you lose due to theta in your bought option can be somewhat covered by theta gain in the sold option
I can or anyone knowing greeks can make a position almost theta neutral thru spreads

THIS IS HOW GREEKS HELP YOU !
I understand that when one opens an options book, the maths seems daunting. It's supposed to be, Black and Scholes won the Nobel prize for making that formula 😃 To be very frank, if you ask me the total maths, I will also have trouble explaining
So, focus on the graphs. Using graphs is the easiest way to understand options. Whatever strategy you use, plot it graphically and play around with vols, DTE and direction
1. https://t.co/LpbzrgqvaH ( web based)
2. https://t.co/5AHY0EmfH9 ( software)

BOTH FREE, use them

More from Subhadip Nandy

Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Views, buy/sell signals, entry systems are over rated.

Execution and trade management skills are under-rated.

A thread

You buy 4 lots of TataConsmr 710 CE at 24, SL 18
( Risk = R = 6 points)

TataCon 710CE goes upto 30. What do you do ?

( this is where the 4 lots minimum comes into play)

1. You sqoff 2 lots. rest 2 you put SL at 24

2. You sqoff 2 lots, you put 1 lot SL at 24, another lot at 18
3. You sqoff 2 lots, sell 2 lots of higher strikes CE , say 730/740 and covert to a bull spread

In all the cases, you have taken some profit off the table ensuring you do not lose money on this trade while keeping yourself open for more profits in case it goes up more.
I have given you a gist of what you learn in various money management / position sizing books.
Use this.
SNLEARNINGS
Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
A short thread on #MFI

The basics here :

Technical analysis says two things :
1. Momentum precedes price
2. Volumes precedes price

So, if an indicator includes momentum and volume analysis, it will be a leading indicator to some extent. This is the crux why I am so much confident on MFI

The indicator can be used for swing as well as day-trading. I use a period of 10 as I have seen that being our responsive to our markets here

Trendlines drawn on MFI or patterns might not be visible on price, normal trendline trading rules apply.

Divergences work and so does patterns

One can use MFI as a stand alone tool or as a supporting tool with other indicators

My indicator on divergences used codes was not allowed by tradingview ( future looking in a protected code). Tradingview has a good built-in divergence indicator which I have simply modified by plugging in MFI in place of RSI.
MFI
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
My experiences in trading through various international locha events, high VIX and various events.
A thread

I follow the news, but never think of myself smart enough to predict what is finally going to happen. I am not a geopolitical expert, smarter brains than me are analyzing and acting on the news

Their actions are reflected on price, volume, OI. Following the data keeps me at par with the latest news

Be ready to cut your existing positions ruthlessly when data changes, be ready to absorb the loss and get out of the position. Never hold onto with hope.
Never works

Reduce trading volumes. Higher the volatility, lower the trade size.
Use lower volumes and bigger stops to counter the volatility
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Trend Ratio suggests major long positions has been built into Nifty and BNF over the weekend. If tomorrow we trade above the upper levels, stay bullish. Break of the Balance levels will mean these longs are trapped and can lead to fast downsides


Will not be in markets tomorrow due to some personal work, hence posted this today.

Nifty short covering on Friday given the strong move in Nifty fut is obvious. But what's interesting is the huge short covering on BNF with only 0.5% upmove in price. Morning should be bullish, then watch out how the OI behaves


Lastly, all the calculations for Upper/Lower/Balance/Trend Ratio are my own development and I won't share the formula or process. So request stop asking me about those. Thanks.

Working on two quantitative logic to analyze intraday trend and volatility. Nifty fut and BN fut charts attached.
Intraday Trend :: Blue = Uptrend , Red = Downtrend , Yellow = No Trend

Intraday Volatility :: Red = Volatile , Yellow = Normal , Gray =Quiet
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Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
@Random37938918 @nuraniraj This is a paid course, extremely economically priced. This covers MFI in detail, check if you are
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2. Pivot points trades
3. PDH/PDL trades
4. Open interest addictions combined with rejections on charts.
5. Website to confirm bias

Very quick read.

Share if you liked for the benefit of everyone.

•Main setup of @ITRADE191
He used this setup daily for all trades.

1. EMA crossover 10/20
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3. Vwap
4. RSI >


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Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵 Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 8th December Expiry:


To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:

1. Aggressive Traders (2.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.3%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.8%)


1. Technicals

Let's start by doing some basic technical analysis.

We'll look at:

• Weekly charts.
• Daily charts.
• Hourly / 60 min charts.
• 15 min charts.

1. Weekly-

• The market has given 4 continuous green closes, so not expecting a big momentum on upside.

• This week my view is that it can take a pause.

• Longer term trend is super bullish.

• Any dip will towards 41800 will be a retest, and should be used to go long.


2. Daily:

• Candlestick pattern—Hanging Man

• Chart Pattern—Breakout Failure

• A pin bar candle is very powerful but only after a downmove.

• Here it forms near the top of upmove.

• Means some sellers are present. Below 43000 can sell calls above 43600 for the week.
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Nick Drendel \U0001f981 \U0001f6a2
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• Your Position Size: % of your account in the trade
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Want to take a larger position size? Make your stop tighter.

Trading a volatile stock? Size down on the trade.


The most important aspect of trading is risk management.

It's great to make money, but worthless if you don't have a system to keep it.

Over 50% of my trades are losses, but I'm still profitable because of the 1% Rule.

Keep losses small & let winners run!

"Nick, 1% risk isn't enough, my account is small."

New traders are EXACTLY who benefits the most!

By limiting each trade's potential losses to 1% it will take you:

• 29 straight losses to fall 25%
• 69 straight losses to fall 50%

It's tough to be that consistently bad 😅
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HELLO: If you pee and every time you finish, your urine looks like this picture, you may have a serious medical illness.

Foamy urine especially if it is persistent and noticeable over time may mean you have a serious kidney problem.

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RT for others.


What are the features of a normal urine?

A normal urine should have a light yellow colour, painless, odourless (or faint smell), steady stream and should ideally not foam when you pee.

When there’s something wrong, then you see changes in all the above normal features of urine.

For instance if urine becomes very deep yellow, it may mean you are dehydrated;

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