BC TRADING
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Circle of Competence 101

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger often reference the importance of knowing the boundaries of your circle of competence.

But what is a Circle of Competence and how does it work?

Here's Circle of Competence 101!

 1/ First, a few definitions.

A Circle of Competence is the set of topic areas that align with a person's expertise.

If the entire world of information were to be expressed in a circle, an individual's Circle of Competence is the small sub-circle that represents their expertise.
2/ The idea surfaced in the 1996 BH annual letter.

"You don’t have to be an expert on every company...you only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."
3/ A Circle of Competence is built over time.

It is built through experience, reading, dedicated study, and effort.

It is dynamic, not static.

It can expand as you deepen your knowledge in new areas. It can contract if you fail to nurture your existing areas of expertise.
4/ To engage this mental model in your life, there are two key processes to go through:

(1) Identify what falls within your circle
(2) Identify the boundaries of your circle

(1) is all about figuring out what you know, while (2) is about humbly admitting what you don’t.
5/ Let’s look at a few examples of where we see the Circle of Competence in action and how it can help you win.

In investing?

Berkshire Hathaway provides the classic example of investing success from sticking within the boundaries of your Circle of Competence.
6/ Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have consistently passed on investment opportunities that fell outside of their respective Circles of Competence.

At times, it has led to what might look like big misses, including failing to see the potential and invest in Google and Amazon.
7/ But while you hear about these misses (“the anti-portfolio”), you don’t read about all of the bad decisions it saved them from making.

As Munger once said, you can become a consistent winner by “trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."
8/ In business?

The best operators know their core competencies and are honest about their incompetencies.

The visionary CEOs hire field general, execution-focused COOs.

The field general CEOs hire visionary product leaders.

Own your competencies, outsource the rest.
9/ So how can you implement the Circle of Competence model into your life?

First, identify your circle and its boundaries.

What topics do you know more about than most people?

What topics do others look to you on?

What are you constantly excited by and learning more about?
10/ Next, be ruthlessly honest with yourself about that circle and its boundaries.

Build checks into your decision process that pressure test whether you are remaining true to your Circle of Competence.

Consistently sticking to your circle will lead to good long-term outcomes.
11/ Finally, keep expanding and deepening your Circle of Competence.

Embrace intellectual curiosity!

Is there a new topic you are excited about? Read everything you can get your hands on.

We live in an unprecedented era of access to information.
12/ You no longer need to pay a big tuition bill to learn something new.

You can seek out thought leaders, ask them questions, read their articles, listen to them speak.

It is truly remarkable. Take advantage!

You may just find that your Circle of Competence begins to grow.
13/ So that is Circle of Competence 101. This one sits alongside First Principles Thinking and Second-Order Thinking for me in the realm of foundational topics.

For more, check out the resources below:

https://t.co/ONfwxuZQDd

https://t.co/l5U0yI2gmx

https://t.co/3GgWBNiwyb
14/ As you continue to build your Circle of Competence, I highly recommend checking out @ShaneAParrish and @farnamstreet for high-signal content that has been critical in my development.

You can subscribe to their weekly newsletter below. https://t.co/OkTeX0rMej!
15/ And for more educational threads on business, money, finance, and economics, check out my meta-thread below.

Turn on post notifications so you never miss a thread! https://t.co/53UhhfzIcp

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Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇


1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.


3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"


4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.
FOR LATER READ
Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
To outperform, you need serious problem-solving skills.

Fortunately, these skills can be learned.

THREAD: A simple, powerful mental model for thinking clearly and solving complex problems:

When solving problems, the human mind is wired to think in linear, logical, forward terms.

But as the problems get increasingly complex, this forward, logical process often fails.

Enter our simple, powerful mental model: inversion.

What is inversion?

Inversion is a mental model and thinking tool used by some of the world’s greatest thinkers and problem solvers.

Simply put, it says that when problems become challenging to solve forwards, they may be more readily solved backwards.

Inversion as a general thinking tool has been around for millennia.

Stoic philosophers had premeditatio malorum - “the pre-meditation of evils” - an exercise in which they would imagine the worst case scenario ahead of time.

It allowed them to make plans to avoid this outcome.


The formal mental model was popularized by German mathematician Carl Jacobi in the mid-1800s.

When faced with difficult problems (which happened frequently in his field of elliptic functions!), he had a strategy: “Man muss immer umkehren.”

Translation: “Invert, always invert.”
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Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
In 1637, the Dutch Republic erupted into a speculative fever over an unlikely item...the tulip.

Tulip Mania has become a legend synonymous with market euphoria and bubbles. But is this tale all it's cracked up to be?

Who's up for a story?

👇👇👇


1/ The tulip is a spring-blooming flower native to the valleys of the Tien Shan Mountains in Central Asia.

It is believed to have been introduced to Europe in 1554, when an ambassador of the Holy Roman Emperor sent tulip bulbs and seeds to Vienna from the Ottoman Empire.


2/ Tulips gained in popularity as people were attracted to their rich color and ability to grow in sub-optimal conditions.

They soon became a coveted status symbol for the wealthy.

The Semper Augustus, with its colorful, flame-like streaks, was the most desired of them all.


3/ By the early 1600s, the Dutch Republic was entering a golden age.

Many financial innovations popped up during this time - the first stock exchange, for example.

But it was another financial innovation that would propel tulips into historical lore: the futures contract.

4/ As tulips grow slowly and may take several years to bloom, paper contracts were written that entitled the buyer to the future tulips.

These contracts were freely-traded.

So in addition to the physical market for tulip bulbs, a thriving paper market was established.
HISTORY
Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
A paradox is a seemingly self-contradictory statement that proves true.

The most powerful paradoxes I’ve found:

The Paradox of Failure

You have to fail more to succeed more.

Our greatest moments of growth often stem directly from our greatest moments of failure.

Don’t fear failure.

Learn to fail smart and fast—never fail the same way twice.

Always put yourself in the arena.

The Paradox of Persuasion

Ever notice that the most argumentative people rarely persuade anyone of anything?

Persuasive people don’t argue—they observe, listen, and ask questions.

Argue less, persuade more.

Persuasion is an art that requires a paintbrush, not a sledgehammer.

The Paradox of Productivity

Work longer, get less done.

Parkinson's Law says that work expands to fill the time available for its completion.

When you establish fixed hours to work, you'll find unproductive ways to fill it.

Work like a lion instead—sprint, rest, repeat.

The Paradox of Effort

You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless.

Effortless, elegant performances are simply the result of a large volume of consistent, effortful practice.

Small things become big things.

Simple is not simple.
PRINCIPLES
Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
The Feynman Technique (how to learn anything):

The Feynman Technique is a unique learning method that prioritizes simplicity to create depth of understanding.

It is named after Richard Feynman—an American theoretical physicist who won the Nobel Prize in 1965 for his groundbreaking work in quantum electrodynamics.


Richard Feynman was certainly intelligent.

But there are a lot of intelligent people in the world.

Feynman's true genius was noted as his ability to convey complex ideas in simple, elegant ways.

He observed that complexity and jargon are often used to mask a lack of deep understanding.

Hence “The Feynman Razor” that I’ve written about:

If someone uses a lot of complexity and jargon to explain something to you, they probably don’t understand it.


The Feynman Technique is a learning framework that requires you to develop a deep understanding of a given topic.

It involves four key steps:
(1) Set the Stage
(2) ELI5 (Explain It To Me Like I'm 5)
(3) Assess & Study
(4) Organize, Convey & Review

Let's cover each step:
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Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
1/ I'm a huge fan of checklists

I use them every day to help me find great investments

Want to create your own investment checklist?

Here are some great resources to help you get started

⬇️


2/ Here's my free public spreadsheet that details my current

3/ Here's my detailed board post about how to use the

4/ Here's a detailed thread on Michael Shern's EXCELLENT investment


5/ Here's a thread on how I created my
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Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Learn about the STEEL SECTOR in this thread

The demand for steel is generally only 1.2 times the GDP & there is no significant growth in our GDP but still the sector has rallied relentlessly, lets try & understand

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/22)
#Investing

The metal sector is broadly divided into 2,
-Ferrous is a category of metal that has Iron in it, Steel as an example
-Non-Ferrous is a metal, which does not have Iron content, Aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, Zinc etc.
This thread focuses on Ferrous & hence Steel (2/22)

To start, lets understand with how steel is made (its important).
Iron ore is mined, it is then first converted to Iron & Iron is then converted to Steel. There are 3 processes of making steel
-Blast Furnace
-Scrap Metal
-DRIP/Sponge
We will discuss all three (3/22)
ALL , SECTORLEARNINGS , STEELSECTOR
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Peter McCormack \U0001f451
Peter McCormack 👑...
@PeterMcCormack
1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...

Yesterday was brutal for some people...

Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.

2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.

https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0

tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it

2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.

3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.

If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.

4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information

And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.

5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?

I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
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Nick Drendel \U0001f981 \U0001f6a2
Nick Drendel 🦁 🚢...
@StockTrickNick
If I stuck to this one rule the day I started trading I would have...

• Saved $1,000's of dollars in losses.
• Sped up my learning process.
• Avoided every major account drawdown I've had.

If you're new to trading, make sure you stick to this 👇🏼

The 1% Rule 🧵

The 1% Rule states that you should risk, at most, 1% of your total account on every individual trade.

This 1% risk is a function of two flexible components:

• Your Position Size: % of your account in the trade
• Your Trade Risk: % between your entry price and your stop loss

Want to take a larger position size? Make your stop tighter.

Trading a volatile stock? Size down on the trade.


The most important aspect of trading is risk management.

It's great to make money, but worthless if you don't have a system to keep it.

Over 50% of my trades are losses, but I'm still profitable because of the 1% Rule.

Keep losses small & let winners run!

"Nick, 1% risk isn't enough, my account is small."

New traders are EXACTLY who benefits the most!

By limiting each trade's potential losses to 1% it will take you:

• 29 straight losses to fall 25%
• 69 straight losses to fall 50%

It's tough to be that consistently bad 😅
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
TradingView isn't just charts

It's much more powerful than you think

9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis

Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser

Step 2. Login to trading view

Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows

Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.

Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"


What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.

Refer to the attached picture.

The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.

Also, do note:

I do not have the paid version of trading view.


2/ Free Multiple Watchlists

Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free


3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors

You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.

1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.

Kinda like how I did in the picture below.
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Respectable Lawyer
Respectable Lawyer
@RespectableLaw
There's been a lot of talk about the missionary killed by the natives of North Sentinel Island. They're probably so aggressive because of this weirdo, Maurice Vidal Portman. So here's a big thread about this creep and some facts from my decade-long obsession with the island.


The Sentinelese are often described as “uncontacted,” but this not strictly true. They had a very significant contact in 1880 with Commander Portman.

Portman, the black sheep third son of some minor noble, was assigned by the English Royal Navy to administer and pacify the Andaman Islands, a job he pursued from 1880-1900 with the full measure of his own perversity.


Portman was erotically obsessed with the Andamanese, and he indulged his passion for photography by kidnapping members of various tribes and posing them in mock-Greek homoerotic compositions.


During his 20 years in a sexualized heart of darkness, Portman measured and cataloged every inch of his prisoner’s bodies, with an obsessive focus on genitals.
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI SWETHA VINAYAGAR, THIRUVALANCHUZHI, KUMBAKONAM
(TN)
#bharatmandir

While main deity is Shiva as Kapartheeswarar, the kshetram is famous for Ganesha, known as Swetha/Vellai Vinayagar (white Vinayak)

During samudra manthan, Vasuki snake (used as rope) started spewing venom.


Unable to bear the intense heat, Devas rushed to Siva. He told them that this was because the task was started without getting Ganesha’s approval.
So the Devas created a Ganesha murti from white sea foam and worshipped it.
It was later taken by Indra to Indralok.
@GunduHuDuGa


But once Indra had to come to Earth to pray to Shiva to seek relief from a curse inflicted on him. So he brought the murti of Ganesha with him. When he came here, he wanted to take bath before puja. So he gave the murti to a boy to hold for sometime. The boy was actually Shiva.


He kept the murti down and vanished. Indra could not lift it again and a divine voice told him to let Vinayagar stay there and visit every Ganesh Chaturthi to pray.
Since Vinayagar is made of foam, no abhishekam is done here. Only punugu is applied n camphor powder is sprinkled
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
A Thread on the Boss himself @Mitesh_Engr

Mitesh Sir's Positional Option Selling 101:

• How to find direction
• Which options to sell
• How to deploy capital
• Exit criteria
• What ROI he targets weekly
• What % risk he takes

Done with the help of @niki_poojary


How @Mitesh_Engr Sir finds the direction?

• Daily charts S/R
• 75 min charts S/R
• Intraday trend
• Always play directional
• Never trades in strategies


Which options to sell in weekly expiry according to @Mitesh_Engr?

• Weekly candle High/Low
• Sell 1% away options from those
• Exit when levels breached


Position Sizing by @Mitesh_Engr Sir.

How to deploy your capital?

• First sell 20%
• Pyramid the next day
• When to exit
• What to do when view goes wrong
• What to do with idle capital


Some important tweets of @Mitesh_Engr Sir

• What Data to look at
• ROI for safe players per month
• Max risk per day
• Gather knowledge and play directional
• Never play strategies
OPTIONS LEARNING , ALL , MPLEARNINGS
Jig's Patel
Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988
What is best way to sell strangle in Banknifty on an intraday basis
Simple
at 9:45 Open Option chain and check In which strike highest OI change in call side and put side

Sell both option with combine SL
Enjoy easy and simple intraday trading strategy
Today 35000CE and 34500PE
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Learning @ Prakash
Learning @ Prakash
@Prakashplutus
My simple Approach towards Breakout trading :

1. Scan stocks on the basis of FTDB Scanner.

2. Buy stocks with EMA-9> EMA-21> EMA-63 > EMA 200 & Volume 200% up

3. maximum SL of 1.25X ( ATR )

4. I do breakout trading only in Nifty -500 stocks

#StockMarket
#trading
#Nifty
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