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Saved by @SAnngeri

Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

 Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)
But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help https://t.co/Um5trNKc13
Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)
There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
What should you do in the near term?
-Stick to your asset allocation
-Don’t take large lumpsum bets, spread it over time
-Continue your SIPs
-If you are new to markets, take MF route than direct equity (6/n)
continue .....
-Don’t expect sizeable returns for the coming 2 years
-Look at this market more from a medium term perspective (7/n)
What will work for the markets in the medium term?
-Global growth
-Lower interest rates
-CAPEX
-China + 1 (8/n)
(1) Global Growth
(a) Liquidity is infused in the markets by both, central banks & governments

(Understand more about how liquidity drives the markets 👇 https://t.co/CCJIDFgu6I) (9/n)
(b) Infusion by central banks this time is close to $10T, which is like 4-5 times higher than what we saw in 2008. Was reading a report which said this liquidity has increased the pre pandemic house hold earnings in the US (10/n)
(c) US Government has infused roughly $1.9T for infra and another $2T is under consideration
(d) We also have Europe committing 750B Euros of infra spend
(e) If global growth even increases by 1%, India will benefit by 0.30 - 0.40% due to exports and capital inflows (11/n)
(2) Low Interest Rates

(a) Vs pre pandemic, G-Sec is down roughly 1.8% & repo is down 2.25%. There is a huge 17-18L cr liquidity in the banking system which can be lent (12/n)
(b) Ofcourse the argument on rising rates because of inflation remains but an increase of 0.25% - 0.50% will still be much lower than pre pandemic levels
(c) Corporate borrowings have and will continue to hugely benefit with these lower rates (13/n)
(3) CAPEX

(a) There are clear signs of CAPEX returning in Housing, Infra as well as corporates (lower rates helping)
(b) To quote only housing, the house price to income ratio is 4.5 times today across 20 cities, best in the last 20 years. There is demand for housing. (14/n)
(c) Loan rates today are sub 7% vs 9.5% 3 years back
(d) Housing revival indirectly connects with 80 odd sub sectors & is a huge employment provider. Construction is the second largest employment generator
(e) We have also seen huge government spending’s after recessions (15/n)
(4) China + 1
(a) Some part of China’s share of global trade is expected to come to India due to Labour cost going up over the last decade in China, trade issues that China has with many, environmental challenges that china is facing (16/n)
(b) Production linked Incentive scheme (PLI) – Government is pledging to incentivise 4-6% of the top line over the next 5 years in 13 sectors upto the tune of 2L cr. We have already seen the impact with Mobile handset imports also becoming zero. (17/n)
(c) Only the PLI is expected to increase the cumulative GDP of India by 1.5% (18/n)
(5) Earning will surely get support from the above 4 points

- Today we are roughly at 2.2 – 2.3 times PAT to GDP ratio vs our average of 4.5 times, upside possible.
- From an FY23 perspective, with estimated EPS to be around 874 on nifty, we are trading at 18 times (19/n)
Attached is also the Bloomberg estimated earnings of some sectors for FY 22 & 23. Watch out for Auto, Financials, Materials & Telecom (20/n)
Closing Remarks
- Its impossible to judge the near term movement, stick to your asset allocation
- This market should be looked at from a medium term perspective and has become very sector/stock specific
- Avoid looking at this market from a near term perspective (21/n)
Data is picked from multiple presentations & reports I read but special thanks to Mr. Neelesh Surana of @MiraeAsset_IN for his webinar on this topic the last week.

The thread is purely for education and should not be taken as an investment advice. (22/n)
This is my 38th thread, 'do re-tweet'

Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.

You can find them all in the link below 👇https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF (END)

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𝐀 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 & 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐬 🧵

I still everyday meet investors who think Bitcoin & Blockchain are the same & this thread is specifically for them

Do re-tweet & help us educate more invetsors ☺

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(Q1) Lets start with what was historically used as a method of payment?

- Barter system, you give me a cow and I give you 100 kgs of rice (2/n)

(Q2) So why dint we continue with the barter system?

- It was difficult to transact in fractions
- What if I want only 50 kgs of rice? I cant give you half a cow right?
- This is the prime reason for the introduction of smaller units of payment method we now call as coins (3/n)

(Q3) How did Gold coins get shortlisted for the job?
- It was malleable & portable
- It was non corrosive, could be stored for a long time
- It was a perfect combination of abundance & rare
- Plus it was eye catching & visually appealing (4/n)

(Q4) What about paper currencies?
a) When paper currencies were introduced, it was decided that a country could only print as much currency as the gold reserves they have but this was withdrawn in 1971 bcoz of which the central banks could then print as much money as they wanted
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A basic primer on the Indian Paint sector

With the listing of Indigo paints, JSW entering the paint sector & now Grasim announcing to invest 5,000 cr in the sector, lets explore,
-Products
-Industry
-Company

Do hit the ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more investors (1/n)

Lets start with PRODUCTS

India paint industry is broadly divided into two,
(1) Decorative Paints (used mainly in residential & office infrastructure)–75% of the total paints market
(2) Industrial Paints (used in Auto & other industrial uses)-25% of the total paints market (2/n)

Decorative Paints is further classified as
a. Primer & Putty–They r applied 2 the wall 2 fill the cracks in the wall & make it smooth b4 painting. It also gives a lasting effect to the paint
b. Thinner–Its mixed with the paint 2 reduce the viscosity,applying becomes easy (3/n)

c. Emulsion Paint – Water based premium range paint mainly used in metros & large cities
d. Enamel Paint- Oil based medium range paint for smaller cities
e. Distemper–Water based paint mainly for the rural area as it can be used on the wall directly without using the primer(4/n)

(f) Wood Coating – Used to protect furniture against moisture (5/n)
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Kirtan A Shah
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Here’s a compilation of Personal Finance threads I have written so far. Thank you for motivating me to do it.

Hit the 're-tweet' and help us educated more investors

Yes Bank’s additional Tier 1 bonds, written off. Lakshmi Villas Banks Tier 2 bonds, written off. Understand what & why of ATI and Tier 2 bonds in this thread.

https://t.co/VBmV2dwpPn (1/n)


'Floating Rate Funds' - A case for debt investing in the current interest rate situation


Fixed Income investment strategies

It’s a misconception that FD, RBI Bond, PPF etc have no risk. The reason we don’t see the risk in them is because for us, risk ONLY means loss of capital.


Index Funds v/s ETFs

While index funds and ETF’s look similar, there are multiple differences you need to keep in mind before investing in either of them. Let me highlight the important ones
ALL , MF AMP PERSONAL FINANCE
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Is US going to default on its debt?

This 🧵 will surely help you understand. Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated investors (1/13)


How does a country run?

Assume a country to be like a company, which has income & expenses. Income source can be tax collections & expense can be government employee salaries, defence sending’s, social security schemes etc. (2/13)

Generally, most economies are running a deficit; their income is less than expense. So if your income is 100 and expense is 105, where do you get the 5? You borrow!

Similarly US has been borrowing & the total debt today roughly stands at a whooping $28.5T. (3/13)

Deficit in the last 2 years has gone up significantly because of COVID + the government wants to spend more; a $3.5T spending package is what they are trying to get an approval for + older debt is coming up for maturity (4/13)


Okay, so I am saying they will raise more debt for the deficit of COVID, the new package & paying older debt off?

Ideally a yes but they are not allowed to borrow more! (5/13)
WOULDUSDEFAULT
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Last Akshay Tritiya, had written the below thread 🧵 on which is the best way to buy gold, Physical, Digital, ETF or Sovereign Gold Bond and why?

Do re-tweet and help us educate more retail investors

#investing
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T-1 Psychology behind the formation of a candle - personally I feel that if one is aware of psychology behind the formation of candle than chart starts talking to you. So, here I am starting my journey of 🧵 with how actually candles form. Small but important for beginners 👇

Hammer - formed at the end of downtrend, opened sellers pushed the prices down, buyers came & pushed the prices up & close the candle above the OP. Shadow formed twice of body. Also observed at trend line & support zone. 👇


Shooting Star - formed at the end of uptrend, opened buyers pushed the price up, sellers came & pushed the price down and make candle close below the OP. Both hammer & shooting star should always be traded with the confirmation from next candle. 👇


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Bearish Engulfing- formed after a uptrend. Price opened above the previous candle, sellers came & form a big red candle below the low of previous candle. Merging of both form a shooting star. 👇
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(1/n) Some notes from my trading journal – A thread
With this thread I shall attempt to explain how I select my trading picks.

I have learn't this concept from @markminervini 's books. Hope it helps.

#Trade #Investment #invest #StockMarket #stocks #india

(2/n) Stock trading above 200 and 50 DMA

Buy high to gain higher. CMP above 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) and 50 DMA above 200 DMA signifies the stock to be in an uptrend. This is an uncompromisable rule. @ZerodhaVarsity @zerodhaonline
#stocks

(3/n) Volume

Volume is the key factor. The stock should show clear signs of accumulation. Generally, accumulation should happen over multiple periods of time. Attached image in the case of #BALAMINES can be used as an eg.
@ZerodhaVarsity

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A stock should be bought either when it’s in stage 2 or when it’s forming a base after a surge. Surge is an upward move in a stock. The best trades are those when a huge surge happens in a very short time frame. Eg #FILATEX
@ZerodhaVarsity

#stocks #StockMarket


(5/n) Consolidation

After a good surge, a stock generally consolidates. This means the stock is in its resting period and will trade only in a range. This phase will be coupled with volume dry up. Tight range with low volumes are the best setups. @ZerodhaVarsity
#stocks
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Today's move is an example of this tweet. Save this chart for future ref. https://t.co/amUhSLrET3
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I personally don't buy any breakout! It must fulfill some criteria:

– Volatility contraction closely to the breakout line
– Volume dry up
– Sound chart pattern
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Pay attention to the details!
Don't blindly buy every outbreak.
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