BC STOCKSLEARNINGS
Saved by @SAnngeri

Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

 Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)
But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help https://t.co/Um5trNKc13
Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)
There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
What should you do in the near term?
-Stick to your asset allocation
-Don’t take large lumpsum bets, spread it over time
-Continue your SIPs
-If you are new to markets, take MF route than direct equity (6/n)
continue .....
-Don’t expect sizeable returns for the coming 2 years
-Look at this market more from a medium term perspective (7/n)
What will work for the markets in the medium term?
-Global growth
-Lower interest rates
-CAPEX
-China + 1 (8/n)
(1) Global Growth
(a) Liquidity is infused in the markets by both, central banks & governments

(Understand more about how liquidity drives the markets 👇 https://t.co/CCJIDFgu6I) (9/n)
(b) Infusion by central banks this time is close to $10T, which is like 4-5 times higher than what we saw in 2008. Was reading a report which said this liquidity has increased the pre pandemic house hold earnings in the US (10/n)
(c) US Government has infused roughly $1.9T for infra and another $2T is under consideration
(d) We also have Europe committing 750B Euros of infra spend
(e) If global growth even increases by 1%, India will benefit by 0.30 - 0.40% due to exports and capital inflows (11/n)
(2) Low Interest Rates

(a) Vs pre pandemic, G-Sec is down roughly 1.8% & repo is down 2.25%. There is a huge 17-18L cr liquidity in the banking system which can be lent (12/n)
(b) Ofcourse the argument on rising rates because of inflation remains but an increase of 0.25% - 0.50% will still be much lower than pre pandemic levels
(c) Corporate borrowings have and will continue to hugely benefit with these lower rates (13/n)
(3) CAPEX

(a) There are clear signs of CAPEX returning in Housing, Infra as well as corporates (lower rates helping)
(b) To quote only housing, the house price to income ratio is 4.5 times today across 20 cities, best in the last 20 years. There is demand for housing. (14/n)
(c) Loan rates today are sub 7% vs 9.5% 3 years back
(d) Housing revival indirectly connects with 80 odd sub sectors & is a huge employment provider. Construction is the second largest employment generator
(e) We have also seen huge government spending’s after recessions (15/n)
(4) China + 1
(a) Some part of China’s share of global trade is expected to come to India due to Labour cost going up over the last decade in China, trade issues that China has with many, environmental challenges that china is facing (16/n)
(b) Production linked Incentive scheme (PLI) – Government is pledging to incentivise 4-6% of the top line over the next 5 years in 13 sectors upto the tune of 2L cr. We have already seen the impact with Mobile handset imports also becoming zero. (17/n)
(c) Only the PLI is expected to increase the cumulative GDP of India by 1.5% (18/n)
(5) Earning will surely get support from the above 4 points

- Today we are roughly at 2.2 – 2.3 times PAT to GDP ratio vs our average of 4.5 times, upside possible.
- From an FY23 perspective, with estimated EPS to be around 874 on nifty, we are trading at 18 times (19/n)
Attached is also the Bloomberg estimated earnings of some sectors for FY 22 & 23. Watch out for Auto, Financials, Materials & Telecom (20/n)
Closing Remarks
- Its impossible to judge the near term movement, stick to your asset allocation
- This market should be looked at from a medium term perspective and has become very sector/stock specific
- Avoid looking at this market from a near term perspective (21/n)
Data is picked from multiple presentations & reports I read but special thanks to Mr. Neelesh Surana of @MiraeAsset_IN for his webinar on this topic the last week.

The thread is purely for education and should not be taken as an investment advice. (22/n)
This is my 38th thread, 'do re-tweet'

Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.

You can find them all in the link below 👇https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF (END)

More from Kirtan A Shah

Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
After writing on Banking & Paints, this thread focuses on the 'Logistic Sector'. Idea is to give a small start to the retail investors looking at investing in this space from where they can build on.

This thread covers,
- Macro
- Business Model
- 3PL & 4PL
- Valuation (1/n)

Logistics business macro

-14% of India’s GDP is spent on Logistic
-Organized market is 42%
-Growing at 10-15%
-Employs 2.2 cr
-Achieved Infrastructure status
-FY 14-18 attracted 1,00,000 cr FDI (2/n)

What’s the business?

Logistic is traditionally seen as a warehousing & transportation business where goods, needs 2b transported 4m point A to B using Road, Rail, Ship or Air & can be stored at multiple warehouses before the consumer receives the product (3/n)

The business landscape is changing fast with newer competition and technology is challenging the older business models. 3PL (3rd party logistics) & 4PL is one such change in the business of logistics, will discuss about the same ahead. (4/n)

Listed companies involved in the business may or largely may not own the Trucks, Rails, Aircraft, Ships, Warehouses etc., but uses outsourced services of other vendors and the listed companies manage the logistics from point A to point B (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
𝐀 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 & 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐬 🧵

I still everyday meet investors who think Bitcoin & Blockchain are the same & this thread is specifically for them

Do re-tweet & help us educate more invetsors ☺

#Investing #Cryptos #Bitcoin (1/n)

(Q1) Lets start with what was historically used as a method of payment?

- Barter system, you give me a cow and I give you 100 kgs of rice (2/n)

(Q2) So why dint we continue with the barter system?

- It was difficult to transact in fractions
- What if I want only 50 kgs of rice? I cant give you half a cow right?
- This is the prime reason for the introduction of smaller units of payment method we now call as coins (3/n)

(Q3) How did Gold coins get shortlisted for the job?
- It was malleable & portable
- It was non corrosive, could be stored for a long time
- It was a perfect combination of abundance & rare
- Plus it was eye catching & visually appealing (4/n)

(Q4) What about paper currencies?
a) When paper currencies were introduced, it was decided that a country could only print as much currency as the gold reserves they have but this was withdrawn in 1971 bcoz of which the central banks could then print as much money as they wanted
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Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@kirtan0810
In this #IPO frenzy market, lets talk (Thread) about some basics around
-Angle/VC/PE
-Allotment process
-IPO Funding
-Grey Market

Hit the ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated more investors (1/n)

Why do companies come out with an IPO?

(a) Funding needs
- Business expansion plans
- Debt payoff

(b) Non-Funding requirement
- Enhancing corporate stature
- Exit options to large investors like the VCs & PEs (2/n)

While most of us believe IPOs are for funding requirements, you deep dive and understand it’s more of an exit channel for large investors (VC/PE). Let me explain the same concept from a start-up's perspective (3/n)

If u r starting off ur entrepreneurial journey & need capital, how do u raise funds?
-Self Funding
-Friends & Relatives (F&R)
-Bank Loan
-Angel Investor
Angel investors r the 1s who invest @ the idea stage & PE/VC who invest in the growth phase of the company.(4/n)

- Self funding can be the best option but everyone’s not prepared
- F&R I wish helped
- Bank loans need collateral and
- Angel investors invest only when they see scalability in the business and hence a belief that they will get their investments back. (5/n)
TRADING
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Amongst other performance details, what we miss out while selecting an actively managed mutual fund is the AUM.

In equity, moderate the better. In debt, higher the better.

#investing
MFS
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Does increase in Inflation & hence interest rates lead to a fall in equity? While theoretically yes, practically the last 20 years of data shows otherwise

Please ‘re-tweet’ 🧵& help us educate more retail investors

#Investing

Lets start with basic, y does inflation ⬆️?
Most feel bcoz of higher demand & lower supply but that’s nt the only factor. Imagine there is a shortage of laptops wrt the demand, but there is no liquidity in the market (people don’t have monies) will the price of laptop ⬆️? No

So, Inflation takes place because the demand supply situation is accompanied by high liquidity, people have the monies to spend and hence the price goes up. Inflation does not take place only because of the demand supply gap (3/n)

Its RBI’s job to keep inflation under check. What role does RBI play? RBI is comfortable keeping Inflation between 2-6% currently. So if Inflation is increasing, how can RBI control it? Can RBI do anything to demand & supply? Nothing (4/n)

So the only tool available with RBI to control inflation is controlling liquidity. If RBI is able to reduce liquidity in the market, less money will chase the goods and hence Inflation can be expected to stabilize. (5/n)
FINANCE

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HMK alias MANOJ
HMK alias MANOJ
@scorpiomanojFRM
#FreeTip
#PriceAction
This PA concept is not avlb in any textbooks:
In an uptrending market if the candle size decreases
a) but in an upward trajectory, the chances of price falling is high.
b) but in an horizontal / downward trajectory, the chances of continuing trend high
STOCKSLEARNINGS , ALL , STOCKLEARNING
SSStockAlerts
SSStockAlerts
@ssstockalerts
If you look into the #weekly #chart you can see clearly if a #stock is under #accumulation or #distribution.

– If volume is above average and it was an UP week, it's accumulation.

– If volume is above average and it was a DOWN week, it's distribution.

@BlogJulianKomar
STOCKSLEARNINGS
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Colibri Trader
Colibri Trader
@priceinaction
Fibonacci and how to use them
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Steve Burns
Steve Burns
@SJosephBurns
What Are Cyclical Stocks?
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The Chartians
The Chartians
@chartians
A Master thread on @Singh7575 Sir's Long Only Setups with examples on Charts!

This setup is a gift to anyone who trades long ideas and those who want to trade in CASH due to Capital Constraint. Fits best for people who don't do FNO as this picks some amazing scripts.

1⃣ Before heading on to the set-up we want to make sure the entire system credit goes to @Singh7575 . We are just here to share it and make people aware of such simple set-ups that can give money considering risk is

2⃣How to Set it Up?
This setup best fits in @tradingview /@zerodhaonline or any broker that provides charting. We only need 2 Indicators.
Indicator 1- 13EMA
Indicator 2 - 34EMA
Both indicators are compulsory and should be exponential(EMA) instead of Simple moving average.(SMA)

3⃣ How to use this Setup?
Whenever this Setup meets a condition where 13EMA crosses 34EMA from below as depicted in the chart. Whenever the 13EMA crosses 34EMA from below it is a LONG (BUY) SIGNAL.

❗️Timeframe needs to be Daily Only!


4⃣ When to Place Order?
The Condition is to place order above the Day's High when crossover happened. Place buying bid above Previous Day’s high. If on current day the stock
doesn’t cross previous day’s high, place a buying bid the next day above current day’s high. For E.g.
STOCKSLEARNINGS , BUYONLYSTRATEGY

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एक दिन भरत ने हनुमान जी से कहा,"हे पवनपुत्र! सीता भाभी को राम भैया के साथ एकांत में रहने का भी अधिकार प्राप्त है ।क्या आपको उनके माथे पर सिन्दूर नहीं दिखता?इसलिए संध्या पश्चात आप राम भैया को कृप्या अकेला छोड़ दिया करें "।
ये सुनकर हनुमान आश्चर्यचकित रह गए और सीता माता के पास गए ।


माता से हनुमान ने पूछा,"माता आप अपने माथे पर सिन्दूर क्यों लगाती हैं।" यह सुनकर सीता माता बोलीं,"स्त्री अपने माथे पर सिन्दूर लगाती है तो उसके पति की आयु में वृद्धि होती है और वह स्वस्थ रहते हैं "। फिर हनुमान जी प्रभु राम के पास गए ।
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और उन्होनें ब्रह्मविद्या का ज्ञान अश्विनि कुमारों को दे दिया। गुप्तचरों के माध्यम से जब खबर इन्द्रदेव तक पहुंची तो वे क्रोध में खड़ग ले कर गए और महर्षि दधीचि का सर धड़ से अलग कर दिया।मगर अश्विनी कुमार भी कहां चुप बैठने वाले थे।उन्होने तुरंत एक अश्व का सिर महर्षि के धड़ पे...


...प्रत्यारोपित कर उन्हें जीवित रख लिया।उस दिन के पश्चात महर्षि दधीचि अश्वशिरा भी कहलाए जाने लगे।अब आगे सुनिये की किस प्रकार महर्षि दधीचि का सर काटने वाले इन्द्र कैसे अपनी रक्षा हेतु उनके आगे गिड़गिड़ाए ।

एक बार देवराज इन्द्र अपनी सभा में बैठे थे, तो उन्हे खुद पर अभिमान हो आया।


वे सोचने लगे कि हम तीनों लोकों के स्वामी हैं। ब्राह्मण हमें यज्ञ में आहुति देते हैं और हमारी उपासना करते हैं। फिर हम सामान्य ब्राह्मण बृहस्पति से क्यों डरते हैं ?उनके आने पर क्यों खड़े हो जाते हैं?वे तो हमारी जीविका से पलते हैं। देवर्षि बृहस्पति देवताओं के गुरु थे।

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BRAHMA VAIVARTA PURAN: IMPORTANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS.

This Puran introduces us to way of Vedas. On the request of Narad Muni Bhagwan Saavarni had preached this Puran. It is a summary of Dharma, Arth, Moksha etc.


Listening to this Puran one gets automatically attached to Vishnu and Shiva and realize that there is no difference between them. Vyasji divided this book into four parts. It has eighteen thousand shlokas. This whole book is in the form of dialogue between Suutji and Maharishi's.

The first part Brahmkhand, consists of Shrishti description. Here Shri is known as Para Brahma and description of Gokul is also mentioned, It also narrates the argument between Brahma and Narad in which both were defeated, and then Narad went to Shiva to attain more gyan.

Shivji advised him to go to Bhagwan Saavarni for this. Narad goes to Saavarni ashram to seek Knowledge and is totally amazed by the sorroundings.

Next is Prakriti khand which consists of dialogue between Narad and Saavarni where they discuss the

Importance of Shri Krishna through various stories. Then there is the discussion of Prakriti and its various hues. Listening to this gets you wealth.
Next is Ganesh Khand which describes the Punyak vrat done by Parvati ji. After this it narrates the birth of Kartikeya and Ganesh.
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Took me 5 years to get the best Chartink scanners for Stock Market, but you’ll get it in 5 mminutes here ⏰

Do Share the above tweet 👆

These are going to be very simple yet effective pure price action based scanners, no fancy indicators nothing - hope you liked it.

https://t.co/JU0MJIbpRV

52 Week High
One of the classic scanners very you will get strong stocks to Bet on.

https://t.co/V69th0jwBr

Hourly Breakout
This scanner will give you short term bet breakouts like hourly or 2Hr breakout

Volume shocker
Volume spurt in a stock with massive X times
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Anu Satheesh
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Guruvayur Sri Krishna & Coconut with Horns.
#Krishnaleela
#Bhakthi
🕉
We’ve all grown up listening to stories of Shri Krishna. This one is a famous story of Shri Krishna in Guruvayur Temple, also called Dakshina Dwaraka.


There lived a villager who planted coconut saplings and had promised that he would offer the 'first coconut' from each of his coconut trees to "Guruvayurappan". When the trees started to yield coconuts, he collected the first coconut from all the trees in a sack 👇


and set forth to Guruvayur.

On the way he was stopped by a robber who asked all the items in the sack. The villager told the robber that the coconuts in the sack belonged to Guruvayurappan and so he was unable to hand it over.
@SriramKannan77 @Jayalko1


The robber with anger asked the villager "Is Guruvaurappan's coconut any different? Does it have horns ?".
Saying so the robber pulled the sack forcefully out of the villager's hand, and coconuts came out..👇


To their astonishment each and every coconut in the sack had horns! Even today, the coconut with horns are displayed in the temple for devotees to see.

Below Picture is not original, as we cannot take photos inside temple.
Hare Krishna
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🕉🕉🕉🕉🕉
Shubham
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