BC STOCKSLEARNINGS
Saved by @SAnngeri

Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

 Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)
But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help https://t.co/Um5trNKc13
Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)
There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
What should you do in the near term?
-Stick to your asset allocation
-Don’t take large lumpsum bets, spread it over time
-Continue your SIPs
-If you are new to markets, take MF route than direct equity (6/n)
continue .....
-Don’t expect sizeable returns for the coming 2 years
-Look at this market more from a medium term perspective (7/n)
What will work for the markets in the medium term?
-Global growth
-Lower interest rates
-CAPEX
-China + 1 (8/n)
(1) Global Growth
(a) Liquidity is infused in the markets by both, central banks & governments

(Understand more about how liquidity drives the markets 👇 https://t.co/CCJIDFgu6I) (9/n)
(b) Infusion by central banks this time is close to $10T, which is like 4-5 times higher than what we saw in 2008. Was reading a report which said this liquidity has increased the pre pandemic house hold earnings in the US (10/n)
(c) US Government has infused roughly $1.9T for infra and another $2T is under consideration
(d) We also have Europe committing 750B Euros of infra spend
(e) If global growth even increases by 1%, India will benefit by 0.30 - 0.40% due to exports and capital inflows (11/n)
(2) Low Interest Rates

(a) Vs pre pandemic, G-Sec is down roughly 1.8% & repo is down 2.25%. There is a huge 17-18L cr liquidity in the banking system which can be lent (12/n)
(b) Ofcourse the argument on rising rates because of inflation remains but an increase of 0.25% - 0.50% will still be much lower than pre pandemic levels
(c) Corporate borrowings have and will continue to hugely benefit with these lower rates (13/n)
(3) CAPEX

(a) There are clear signs of CAPEX returning in Housing, Infra as well as corporates (lower rates helping)
(b) To quote only housing, the house price to income ratio is 4.5 times today across 20 cities, best in the last 20 years. There is demand for housing. (14/n)
(c) Loan rates today are sub 7% vs 9.5% 3 years back
(d) Housing revival indirectly connects with 80 odd sub sectors & is a huge employment provider. Construction is the second largest employment generator
(e) We have also seen huge government spending’s after recessions (15/n)
(4) China + 1
(a) Some part of China’s share of global trade is expected to come to India due to Labour cost going up over the last decade in China, trade issues that China has with many, environmental challenges that china is facing (16/n)
(b) Production linked Incentive scheme (PLI) – Government is pledging to incentivise 4-6% of the top line over the next 5 years in 13 sectors upto the tune of 2L cr. We have already seen the impact with Mobile handset imports also becoming zero. (17/n)
(c) Only the PLI is expected to increase the cumulative GDP of India by 1.5% (18/n)
(5) Earning will surely get support from the above 4 points

- Today we are roughly at 2.2 – 2.3 times PAT to GDP ratio vs our average of 4.5 times, upside possible.
- From an FY23 perspective, with estimated EPS to be around 874 on nifty, we are trading at 18 times (19/n)
Attached is also the Bloomberg estimated earnings of some sectors for FY 22 & 23. Watch out for Auto, Financials, Materials & Telecom (20/n)
Closing Remarks
- Its impossible to judge the near term movement, stick to your asset allocation
- This market should be looked at from a medium term perspective and has become very sector/stock specific
- Avoid looking at this market from a near term perspective (21/n)
Data is picked from multiple presentations & reports I read but special thanks to Mr. Neelesh Surana of @MiraeAsset_IN for his webinar on this topic the last week.

The thread is purely for education and should not be taken as an investment advice. (22/n)
This is my 38th thread, 'do re-tweet'

Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.

You can find them all in the link below 👇https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF (END)

More from Kirtan A Shah

Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@kirtan0810
Market PE at 40 and yet the market is not falling, why? Getting asked this question multiple times. Here's a thread covering ‘very basic’ premier on valuation for my retail investor friends.

Do hit the ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more investors (1/n)


For us to be able to comprehend the situation, we need to understand 4 very basic valuation matrixes
(1) Trailing EPS
(2) Forward EPS
(3) Trailing PE
(4) Forward PE

Formula

EPS = Profit After Tax / Number of outstanding Shares
PE = Market Price / EPS (2/n)

So what's a trailing EPS?

So in March 2020, RIL generated a Profit after tax (PAT) of 39,354 cr. The number of outstanding shares of RIL is some 676.21 cr. which means the 39,354 cr of PAT belongs to the 676.21 cr. shareholders, right? (3/n)

That also means that per share, RIL earned Rs. 58.20 (39,354/676.21). This 58.20 is called the trailing (TTM) EPS. Trailing means past, already done. (4/n)


So RIL earns 58.20 rupees per share but you pay 58.20 * 33.16 = 1930, 33.16 times more to buy 1 share from the market, that 33.16 is called the Price/Earnings (PE) ratio. This is again trailing as 58.20 EPS is trailing. (5/n)
INVESTING , MARKET LEARNINGS , INVESTING KNOWLEDGE
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
After writing on Banking & Paints, this thread focuses on the 'Logistic Sector'. Idea is to give a small start to the retail investors looking at investing in this space from where they can build on.

This thread covers,
- Macro
- Business Model
- 3PL & 4PL
- Valuation (1/n)

Logistics business macro

-14% of India’s GDP is spent on Logistic
-Organized market is 42%
-Growing at 10-15%
-Employs 2.2 cr
-Achieved Infrastructure status
-FY 14-18 attracted 1,00,000 cr FDI (2/n)

What’s the business?

Logistic is traditionally seen as a warehousing & transportation business where goods, needs 2b transported 4m point A to B using Road, Rail, Ship or Air & can be stored at multiple warehouses before the consumer receives the product (3/n)

The business landscape is changing fast with newer competition and technology is challenging the older business models. 3PL (3rd party logistics) & 4PL is one such change in the business of logistics, will discuss about the same ahead. (4/n)

Listed companies involved in the business may or largely may not own the Trucks, Rails, Aircraft, Ships, Warehouses etc., but uses outsourced services of other vendors and the listed companies manage the logistics from point A to point B (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS
Advertisement
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Have been bullish on #gold since $1786, Gold at $1910 today.

#investing
GOLD
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
In a business where the buying & selling price is fixed by the government, how is that the sugar stocks are rallying so much?

A thread 🧵 to learn how the sugar sector works. Do re-tweet and hence us educate more investors (1/n)

- Sugar is made out of Sugarcane
- The government fixes buying price (FRP – Fair & Remunerative price) for the mill from the farmers at 2.850/Kg
- Selling price is also fixed at Rs. 31/Kg (MSP – Minimum selling price) (2/n)

Lets understand the sector,

- Sugarcane purchased by the mill is crushed to remove the juice (exactly like you have sugarcane juice at a hotel)
- Juice is heated & boiled to remove sugar (3/n)

- The juice can be boiled upto 3 times to remove sugar. Each time it is boiled, sugar is removed, than some water is added and boiled again to remove more sugar (4/n)

- There are 2 by-products as well. The residue left behind after the boiling process is over is like a gum/paste called molasses & the fiber/stem of the sugarcane after juice is extracted (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS , ALL , INVESTMENTLEARNING
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Is US going to default on its debt?

This 🧵 will surely help you understand. Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated investors (1/13)


How does a country run?

Assume a country to be like a company, which has income & expenses. Income source can be tax collections & expense can be government employee salaries, defence sending’s, social security schemes etc. (2/13)

Generally, most economies are running a deficit; their income is less than expense. So if your income is 100 and expense is 105, where do you get the 5? You borrow!

Similarly US has been borrowing & the total debt today roughly stands at a whooping $28.5T. (3/13)

Deficit in the last 2 years has gone up significantly because of COVID + the government wants to spend more; a $3.5T spending package is what they are trying to get an approval for + older debt is coming up for maturity (4/13)


Okay, so I am saying they will raise more debt for the deficit of COVID, the new package & paying older debt off?

Ideally a yes but they are not allowed to borrow more! (5/13)
WOULDUSDEFAULT

More from Stockslearnings

HMK alias MANOJ
HMK alias MANOJ
@scorpiomanojFRM
#FreeTip
#Intraday
An intraday pattern that usually results in a big move; Doesn't occur very frequently; If it happens, most of the time the move is big.
Intraday VCP. - U shaped Higher lows (2-5) for an upmove (usually without HHs). n shaped LHs for downmove (usually w.o. LLs


Try identifying historically this pattern; if possible take screenshots of this pattern for your record and have a look at it as much as possible to practice your eyes to spot it in real market; and if u start spotting them perfectly, u r equipped with an edge... Free of Cost....
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Julian Komar
Julian Komar
@BlogJulianKomar
I personally don't buy any breakout! It must fulfill some criteria:

– Volatility contraction closely to the breakout line
– Volume dry up
– Sound chart pattern
– Story stock or great fundamentals

Pay attention to the details!
Don't blindly buy every outbreak.
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Advertisement
Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
How to use Moving averages like a Pro.👇

https://t.co/7VbuGovmee
STOCKSLEARNINGS , ALL , TRADING LESSONS
SSStockAlerts
SSStockAlerts
@ssstockalerts
If you look into the #weekly #chart you can see clearly if a #stock is under #accumulation or #distribution.

– If volume is above average and it was an UP week, it's accumulation.

– If volume is above average and it was a DOWN week, it's distribution.

@BlogJulianKomar
STOCKSLEARNINGS
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
🧵Top 20 best tweets of the week: 30th Oct 🧵

Thread's on:

• How to find targets and exit criteria?
• Shanon's Demon (Investing)
• Tradingview scanner- Intraday/BTST
• 90-degree angle inflection point for profit-booking
• Importance of Leverage

Other cool tweets as well.

🧵Shannon's Demon - an investing "thought exercise"

This account writes the best threads, if you like the threads I make, you will surely love this account. Must


🧵Finding expected targets and exit criteria to look for to exit the


🧵Trading View Scanner process to trade in momentum stocks.


🧵90-degree angle inflection point for
STOCKSLEARNINGS

You May Also Like

Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Keep dwelling on this:
Further Examination of the Motif near PRRA Reveals Close Structural Similarity to the SEB Superantigen as well as Sequence Similarities to Neurotoxins and a Viral SAg.

The insertion PRRA together with 7 sequentially preceding residues & succeeding R685 (conserved in β-CoVs) form a motif, Y674QTQTNSPRRAR685, homologous to those of neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) and Bungarus genera, as well as neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains

(20) (Fig. 2D). We further noticed that the same segment bears close similarity to the HIV-1 glycoprotein gp120 SAg motif F164 to V174.
https://t.co/EwwJOSa8RK


In (B), the segment S680PPRAR685 including the PRRA insert and highly conserved cleavage site *R685* is shown in van der Waals representation (black labels) and nearby CDR residues of the TCRVβ domain are labeled in blue/white
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa


Sequence Identity %
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa
Y674 - QTQTNSPRRA - R685
Similar to neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) & Bungarus genera & neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains
T678 - NSPRRA- R685
Superantigenic core, consistently aligned against bacterial or viral SAgs
ALL
Groww
Groww
@_groww
You want to buy a house.

You take a loan from the bank.

The bank asks you, “what if you don’t pay back?”

You say, “take my home and sell it”.

(Thread)

That makes sense. The bank gives you a loan and in case you don’t pay, the bank will take over your house and sell it and recover its money.

That’s collateral.

Banks also lend money to big corporations. With them, banks don’t always have collateral.

So a loan where the bank has collateral is considered safer for the bank.

In the early 2000s, the banks in the USA were giving out loans to people for buying houses.

The economy had just recovered from the tech bubble in 2000 where many banks had given out loans to businesses that had shut down.

In that backdrop, the banks found giving home loans safer.
ALL , 2008 CRASH , 2008 RECESSION
Advertisement
Damodar Hegde
Damodar Hegde
@DamodarHegde4
MUST READ TILL END:
FB POST BY MR PRABEER BASU,
IAS-1976(BIHAR)
" Received a hurtful post from an old friend and colleague. He was on my daily Broadcast list of WhatsApp. He requested that I do not send him any of my posts on 'political' issues. I gave him a long explaination
>2

2/29
on why I write and what I write. But he was not convinced.

Being alerted by him thus, I felt I should clarify to all who read my posts on what exactly I think and do.

The charge against me is that I wrongly support our current Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi..
>3

3/29
and that it establishes I am not rational and impartial anymore.
Let me try and explain.First and foremost,I do not write on 'political' issues. I write on 'national' issues. For example, I have no opinion on whether Rahul Gandhi should be President of his party or not.
>4

4/29

Similarly, I have no views whether BJP is a better party than Congress or vice versa.
Even after 36 years in the IAS I have no MLA, MP or anyone involved in politics whom I can classify as my friend or even acquaintance.
>5

5/29
So, naturally I don't care which party wins or loses as long as the winning party runs an honest government doing good to my nation.
Now, why I speak in favour of Shri Modi:

1. Ever since the beginning of my service I realised that Planning Commission was not serving..

>6
INDIA
\u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0939\u094d\u092e\u0923\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0907\u0924\u093f\u0939\u093e\u0938\U0001f441\ufe0f\U0001f441\ufe0f
ब्राह्मणों का इतिहास👁️...
@BRAHMIN_0052
MOHIYAL_BRAHMIN_KING
RAJA_PORUS
King_Porus_History

1)King Porus was a famous Indian king, his real name was #Purushotama. He belonged to PURU tribe mentioned in #RIG_VEDA, the Ancient books of India.


2) Porus ruled the Punjab region and expanded his kingdom between the Jhelum River and Chenab River in the Indian Subcontinent. He was a legendary warrior and more war skills. He made the army most powerful with war skills. Even Alexander had also made difficulty to defeat Porus.

3)Word of Mouth Oral tradition in #Mohyal_Brahmin families since ancient times has kept the Great Saga of their Great Elder known to them as Maharaja “ #Puru” alive.

4) When #Alexander the Great invaded India in 326 BC he was challenged near Taxila by a mere chieftain of the Area. He was King #Porus, a #Vaid_Mohyal. After his encounter with Porus, Alexander met with more resistance near Multan where the forces were predominantly #Mohyal.

5)The Bali rulers of Multan fiercely engaged with Alexander's army in skirmishes in which many senior Generals died. Later during the long and bitter fighting in #Multan, Alexander got hurt by an arrow which pierced his chest ,
RELIGION
Corey Lynn \U0001f64f\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Corey Lynn 🙏🇺🇸...
@CoreysDigs
1) OBSERVATION: The frequencies are changing. I would have to assess stats on the electromagnetic field to see its fluctuations. All I know is, I am highly sensitive to energy/frequencies, and they are changing, because…

2) 2 Weeks ago, my dog was effected by it as well. He is hearing things that aren’t technically audible. I can tell by his body language and sounds. One week ago I began feeling a pressure in my head and ears. It wasn’t painful at all, but it was intense for a bit.

3) It reminded me of taking off in an airplane a bit. I felt like I was in a vacuum. It went on and off for a couple of days. I’ve picked up on frequencies and high pitched sounds (not audible to most) for 30 years, and today my right ear began to ring for longer than usual.

4) This is nothing unusual for me, with exception of the duration. This happens often with me. No, it’s not tinnitus. Only this time, when I spoke, there was reverb creating a high pitch in my ear from my voice. This lasted for about 30 minutes. It did not hurt, just annoying.

5) So yes, the frequencies are changing. What this means exactly, I am unsure of at the moment. Some will say electromagnetic fields, others will say ascension, and some will say pole shift. I honestly can’t say at this very moment.
SCIENCE